2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics

February 10, 2012
2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT
Multifamily Market Dynamics
Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research,

Mortgage Bankers Association
Multifamily Rental in the Broader Housing Market
MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book MBA Analysis of American Housing Survey MBA Analysis of Census Population Projections MBA Analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey Reports from MBAs Research Institute for Housing America MBA Analysis of Housing Starts Data
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Structure Size, 2009
Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

3 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Composition of renter households, by building size, 2009

Thousands of households

Composition of Renter Households, by Building Size, 2009


Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009


Changes in Number of Owner- & Renteroccupied Households, & Homeownership Rate
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Projected population change, by age, 2010 2015 & 2015 2020
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau

Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, by Age of Householder, 2000 to 2010
Less than 35 years old
Age 35 to 44
Age 45 to 54
Age 55 to 64
Age 65 and older

Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners and Renters Since 1992
Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward HomeBuying, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since 1992
Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates
Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A. Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
12
Percent of Tenants Probably or Definitely Intend to Renew
Source: Kingsley Associates.

Multifamily Fundamentals MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book MBA Analysis of REIS Data MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data MBA Analysis of Moodys, NCREIF and Green Street Property Price Data
Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & Occupancy Rates, by Property Type by Quarter
Source: Reis, Inc.

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Net Operating Income Among NCREIF Properties
Source: NCREIF.
Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009

Q3 2009 to Q3 2010 Q3 2010 to Q3 2011
Source: Equity Residential.

Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million & Greater
Source: Real Capital Analytics.

Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates, Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater
Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.

Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100)
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.

Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2007Q3 = 100)
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF and Dow Jones.
Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($thousands)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.

Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate, Thousands of Units
Source: Census Bureau.

Multifamily Finance
MBAs Annual Report on Multifamily Lending MBAs Annual Origination Summation MBAs Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding MBAs Annual Report on Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturity Volumes MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates
Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities at Constant Maturity, Monthly Averages of Daily Data (percent)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing.
26
Mortgage Bankers Multifamily & Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes (index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.

Index of Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, by Investor Group (2001 average quarter = 100)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.

Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac & Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Lending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases.
Multifamily Lending in 2010, by Lender Average Loan Size
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.

Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Boards Flow of Funds.
Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding.
32
Multifamily and Other Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Among Major Investor
Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO)
Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including in process of foreclosure)
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)

Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily Mortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31, 2010
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.

Contact Information & MBA Resources

Jamie Woodwell
Vice President Commercial Real Estate Research Mortgage Bankers Association 1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036 jwoodwell@mortgagebankers.org 202-557-2936 MBA homepage: www.mortgagebankers.org MBA research page: www.mortgagebankers.org/research Research Institute for Housing America: http://www.housingamerica.org MBA Newslink: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink
MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Research Reports
www.mortgagebankers.org/research

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February 10, 2012

2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

Multifamily Market Dynamics

Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research,

Multifamily Rental in the Broader Housing Market

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Structure Size, 2009

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

Composition of renter households, by building size, 2009

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

Composition of Renter Households, by Building Size, 2009

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

Changes in Number of Owner- & Renteroccupied Households, & Homeownership Rate

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Projected population change, by age, 2010 2015 & 2015 2020

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau

Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, by Age of Householder, 2000 to 2010

Less than 35 years old

Age 65 and older

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners and Renters Since 1992

Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since 1992

Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Percent of Tenants Probably or Definitely Intend to Renew

Source: Kingsley Associates.

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & Occupancy Rates, by Property Type by Quarter

Source: Reis, Inc.

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Net Operating Income Among NCREIF Properties

Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009

Source: Equity Residential.

Source: Real Capital Analytics.

Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates, Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater

Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.

Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100)

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.

Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate, Thousands of Units

Source: Census Bureau.

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.

Multifamily Lending in 2010, by Lender Average Loan Size

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.

Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)

Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including in process of foreclosure)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.

Contact Information & MBA Resources

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Research Reports

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