ANZ RESEARCH

MEDIA RELEASE

Embargoed until: 11:30am, Tuesday 10 April 2012

JOB ADVERTISING SUGGESTS STABILISING LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS

Highlights
The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers rose 1.0% m/m in March, following solid rises in January and February. Total job advertisements were 2.8% higher than in March 2011 and are now at the highest level since November 2008. The rise in job advertising was driven by a 1.0% rise in internet job advertisements, which were 4.1% higher than a year ago. Newspaper job ads fell 0.6% m/m in March, to be 22.0% below levels from one year ago. In trend terms, total job ads rose by 2.0% m/m in March to be 3.3% higher than a year earlier. Trend growth in job advertising has now been positive since November 2011.

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan said: Job advertising has increased 12% over the first three months of 2012 in a sign that hiring intentions by firms are continuing to improve. Total job ads rose 1.0% m/m in March and are now at the highest level since late 2008. The trend in total advertising points toward a modest recovery in employment growth and an unemployment rate remaining below 5.5% through 2012, despite potential divergences between regions and industries. As indicated by the RBA Governor last week, a low inflation number for Q1 (released 24 April) will open the door for a rate cut in May. Continuing improvements in the overall labour market suggests the scope for further easing of monetary policy beyond this is limited. While total job advertising has strengthened in 2012, newspaper advertising remains in structural decline. Newspaper job advertising has fallen considerably in WA during the first three months of 2012 despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.0% in February. In WA, the move to online advertising is likely to have accelerated due to the scarcity of mining related labour in that state. The benefit of advertising across a number of geographies may be leading the push towards online advertising, particularly for mining-related employers. We expect a trend improvement in job ads and labour market conditions over the next couple years. Increased volatility in other activity indicators from the rising importance of mining may spill over into job ads at times, but we remain optimistic on hiring intentions as a result of the mining boom. ANZ forecast total employment to rise by 5,000 jobs in March, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 5.3%. Monthly trend growth in employment is currently subdued at around 1,000 per month. ANZ forecasts an improvement in employment growth through 2012, with the recent rise in job advertisements a promising start to the year for job seekers.

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TOTAL JOB ADVERTISEMENTS The ANZ Job Advertisements Series shows the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet rose 1.0% m/m in March to an average of 200,800 advertisements per week (seasonally adjusted). Total job advertising is now 2.8% higher than a year earlier. Total job advertising is 12% higher than December 2011 levels. In trend terms, total job advertisements rose by 2.0% m/m in March, which is the fifth consecutive monthly rise. NEWSPAPER JOB ADVERTISEMENTS In contrast to the rise in internet advertising, the number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell 0.6% in March to be 11% below December 2011 levels. In recent months, there has been an acceleration of the trend towards internet advertising. Newspaper job advertisements are now around 4% of total job advertisements. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell 1.8% m/m in March to be 17.9% lower than this time last year. Distinguishing between the cyclical trends and structural decline in newspaper job advertising is difficult. Due to the relative ease of advertising to jobseekers across geographies over the internet, the growing importance of mining in the Australian economy may also be adding to the movement away from traditional newspaper advertising.

INTERNET JOB ADVERTISEMENTS The number of internet job advertisements was 1.0% higher in March and 4.1% higher than year-ago levels. This is the highest seasonally adjusted number of internet job advertisements since November 2008. In trend terms, internet job advertisements rose 12.2% m/m, the fifth consecutive monthly rise. Annual trend growth is now 4.4% y/y.

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For further comment contact:

For data enquiries contact:

For media and distribution enquiries contact: Ingrid Nugent Media Relations Advisor Tel: (03) 8654 3635 Email: Ingrid.Nugent@anz.com

Warren Hogan Chief Economist Tel: (02) 9227 1562 Email: Warren.Hogan@anz.com Next release: April 2012

Andrew McManus Economist Tel: (02) 9227 1742 Email: Andrew.McManus@anz.com

Expected release date: Monday 7 May 2012

Note for editors: For some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement bookings. Each booking may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, and does not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from the ANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. The ANZ series is not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.

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ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS SERIES

Australia - Total Job Ads (newspaper & internet) 300 250 '000 per week 200 150 100 50 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Change in newspaper, internet and total job advertisements

60 Internet % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) 40 Total 20 0

-20 Newspapers -40 -60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

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Growth in total job advertisements and employment

80 % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) 60 Employment (RHS) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 01 03 05 07 09 11 Total job ads, 3 months forward (LHS)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 % change from year earlier ... (seasonally adjusted) % of labour force

Job advertisements and unemployment rate

303 Index 1975 = 100 ... 253 203 153 103 53 3 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 ANZ Job Ads (LHS)

12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Unemployment Rate (RHS)

*Newspaper Job Ads until 2004. Total Job Ads from 2004.

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State and Territory newspaper data

New South Wales 16,000 14,000 12,000 Ads per week 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Victoria 10,000 9,000 8,000 Ads per week 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Trend Seasonally Adjusted

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Queensland 4,000 3,500 3,000 Ads per week 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Western Australia 5,000 4,500 4,000 Ads per week 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

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South Australia 2,000 1,800 1,600 Ads per week 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Tasmania 800 700 600 Ads per week 500 400 300 Seasonally Adjusted 200 100 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Trend

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ACT 1,200 1,000 Ads per week 800 600 400 200 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Seasonally Adjusted Trend

Northern Territory 600 500 Ads per week 400 300 200 Seasonally Adjusted 100 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Trend

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Table 1: Average total number of newspaper and internet job advertisements per week Australia
Original Seasonally adjusted (a) P.c. change over Number Number Month Year (c) Number Trend estimate (b) P.c. change over Month Year

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012

262,423 192,465 146,415 184,244 158,611 162,488 154,780 169,623 171,101 174,523 185,495 194,390 195,083 193,266 175,905 153,073 188,451 193,363 186,087 183,549 187,743 188,887 196,989 200,875 198,344 194,036 168,822 156,990 194,678 198,485 161,136 163,785 161,381 168,166 172,278 173,795 176,164 177,096 178,264 181,688 186,803 188,080 192,036 195,315 194,267 182,092 189,345 188,359 187,001 182,702 181,450 182,072 179,054 192,520 198,870 200,800 20.4 1.6 -1.5 4.2 2.4 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.7 1.9 2.8 0.7 2.1 1.7 -0.5 -6.3 4.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.7 7.5 3.3 1.0

24.9 -26.7 -23.9 25.8 -2.3 8.4 14.9 21.8 32.7 36.6 35.9 33.3 34.6 32.8 32.5 40.6 19.2 19.3 20.4 8.3 9.9 8.4 6.2 3.2 1.8 0.2 -4.1 2.4 3.6 2.8 152,540 158,863 164,389 168,658 171,581 173,590 175,428 177,587 179,868 182,793 186,141 189,102 191,029 191,722 191,260 189,989 188,400 186,545 184,543 182,931 182,462 183,527 186,307 190,074 194,093 198,051 4.4 4.1 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 -7.5 4.2 15.2 24.4 30.8 34.2 35.7 36.4 36.0 34.6 32.5 29.4 25.2 20.7 16.3 12.6 9.8 7.5 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3

(a) Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details). (b) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. This smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, but it also results in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available. (c) Annual changes are on a year average basis.

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ANZ RESEARCH

Table 2: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week Australia

Original

Seasonally adjusted (a) P.c. change over

Trend estimate (b) P.c. change over Number Month Year

Number 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 19,331 11,192 9,199 9,203 11,027 10,149 8,651 9,287 8,882 9,520 10,383 10,671 10,871 10,296 5,855 7,830 10,620 9,807 7,922 8,780 7,887 8,318 8,763 9,329 9,037 8,661 4,853 7,547 8,256 7,646

Number

Month

Year (c) -3.5 -42.1 -17.8 0.0

9,833 9,823 9,622 9,273 9,411 9,534 9,578 9,291 9,515 9,475 9,268 8,762 9,477 9,376 8,964 8,763 8,391 8,327 8,080 8,094 7,917 7,969 8,175 7,910 7,362 7,314

6.9 -0.1 -2.0 -3.6 1.5 1.3 0.5 -3.0 2.4 -0.4 -2.2 -5.5 8.2 -1.1 -4.4 -2.2 -4.2 -0.8 -3.0 0.2 -2.2 0.7 2.6 -3.2 -6.9 -0.6

14.7 21.7 17.9 11.8 13.2 16.4 11.9 6.7 7.4 0.6 -8.0 -4.7 -3.6 -4.5 -6.8 -5.5 -10.8 -12.7 -15.6 -12.9 -16.8 -15.9 -11.8 -9.7 -22.3 -22.0

9,705 9,664 9,588 9,518 9,477 9,468 9,459 9,443 9,402 9,348 9,300 9,263 9,211 9,115 8,965 8,766 8,530 8,305 8,151 8,081 8,039 7,982 7,884 7,759 7,620 7,481

0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -1.7 -2.2 -2.7 -2.6 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8

8.8 15.0 17.6 17.7 16.3 13.9 10.9 7.6 3.9 0.3 -2.6 -4.3 -5.1 -5.7 -6.5 -7.9 -10.0 -12.3 -13.8 -14.4 -14.5 -14.6 -15.2 -16.2 -17.3 -17.9

(a) Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details). (b) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, it does result in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available. (c) Annual changes are on a year average basis.

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Table 3: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories
Original Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over Number New South Wales Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Victoria Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Queensland Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 South Australia Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 739 706 373 637 679 622 672 634 621 608 580 576 -3.5 -5.7 -2.0 -2.2 -4.5 -0.7 -13.0 -19.5 -19.8 -20.2 -23.0 -21.3 668 645 623 604 588 575 -3.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.7 -2.3 -13.0 -16.3 -18.9 -20.6 -21.7 -22.5 924 917 507 802 825 761 785 846 880 821 788 738 4.6 7.8 4.0 -6.7 -4.1 -6.3 5.6 9.6 32.6 18.5 -13.9 -17.4 791 815 825 820 809 790 4.4 3.0 1.1 -0.5 -1.4 -2.2 6.5 9.8 9.1 5.3 0.7 -2.9 1,612 1,480 825 1,230 1,478 1,318 1,401 1,381 1,410 1,367 1,299 1,298 -5.1 -1.4 2.1 -3.1 -4.9 -0.1 -26.1 -27.6 -22.8 -25.2 -31.3 -34.2 1,427 1,401 1,374 1,350 1,326 1,307 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -23.8 -24.9 -26.6 -28.3 -29.5 -29.5 2,568 2,411 1,239 1,975 2,114 2,147 2,251 2,200 2,023 2,172 1,895 2,028 -2.0 -2.3 -8.0 7.4 -12.7 7.0 -14.7 -15.3 -24.8 -4.6 -29.4 -23.0 2,230 2,171 2,112 2,061 2,017 1,980 -2.7 -2.6 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -15.3 -16.4 -18.0 -19.8 -21.9 -23.6 Number Month Year Number Trend estimate P.c. change over Month Year

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The Sydney Morning Herald and The Daily Telegraph (NSW); The Age and The Herald-Sun (Victoria); The Courier-Mail (Queensland); and The Advertiser (South Australia).

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ANZ RESEARCH

Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories
Original Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over Number Western Australia Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Tasmania Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 ACT Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Northern Territory Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 367 359 321 321 375 369 340 360 501 364 359 377 -0.8 6.1 39.0 -27.5 -1.3 5.0 0.1 4.6 56.0 21.0 21.6 8.8 376 386 391 392 389 387 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.2 -0.7 -0.5 11.3 16.1 21.1 23.7 23.6 22.4 450 444 220 381 470 392 411 411 417 395 393 372 -8.1 0.2 1.3 -5.1 -0.6 -5.4 -26.9 -26.1 -19.1 -20.3 -26.6 -34.3 430 417 405 396 388 382 -3.2 -3.1 -2.7 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 -20.1 -22.2 -24.1 -25.5 -26.5 -27.0 433 427 248 441 360 318 380 388 376 377 329 331 15.2 2.0 -3.0 0.3 -12.8 0.7 -24.1 -19.7 -16.8 -19.2 -29.5 -20.7 368 370 368 362 353 345 0.4 0.5 -0.7 -1.7 -2.4 -2.3 -23.1 -22.5 -22.1 -22.0 -22.0 -21.9 1,943 1,917 1,120 1,760 1,957 1,718 1,677 1,748 1,946 1,805 1,718 1,595 -4.5 4.2 11.3 -7.2 -4.8 -7.2 -18.8 -13.8 -3.8 -7.0 -11.2 -12.2 1,749 1,778 1,786 1,775 1,751 1,714 2.3 1.6 0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -2.1 -13.9 -12.2 -10.8 -9.4 -7.8 -6.5 Number Month Year Number Trend estimate P.c. change over Month Year

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The West Australian (Western Australia); The Mercury, The Examiner and The Advocate (Tasmania); The Canberra Times (Australian Capital Territory); and The NT News (Northern Territory).

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Table 4: Average number of internet job advertisements per week Australia

Original

Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over

Trend estimate P.c. change over Number Month Year

Number 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 243,092 181,273 137,215 175,041 147,584 152,339 146,129 160,337 162,219 165,003 175,112 183,720 184,212 182,970 170,050 145,243 177,832 183,556 178,165 174,769 179,857 180,569 188,226 191,545 189,307 185,375 163,969 149,443 186,423 190,839

Number

Month

Year (a) 27.9 -25.4 -24.3 27.6

151,302 153,962 151,759 158,893 162,867 164,261 166,587 167,805 168,750 172,213 177,534 179,318 182,560 185,938 185,303 173,329 180,954 180,032 178,922 174,608 173,534 174,103 170,879 184,611 191,508 193,485

21.4 1.8 -1.4 4.7 2.5 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.6 2.1 3.1 1.0 1.8 1.9 -0.3 -6.5 4.4 -0.5 -0.6 -2.4 -0.6 0.3 -1.9 8.0 3.7 1.0

-3.2 7.6 14.7 22.4 34.0 38.0 37.6 35.2 36.5 35.2 35.6 43.9 20.7 20.8 22.1 9.1 11.1 9.6 7.4 4.1 2.8 1.1 -3.7 3.0 4.9 4.1

142,835 149,199 154,801 159,140 162,105 164,122 165,968 168,144 170,466 173,446 176,840 179,840 181,818 182,607 182,295 181,223 179,870 178,240 176,392 174,850 174,424 175,544 178,423 182,314 186,473 190,570

4.6 4.5 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.2

-8.5 3.5 15.1 24.8 31.8 35.5 37.5 38.5 38.3 37.2 35.1 31.8 27.3 22.4 17.8 13.9 11.0 8.6 6.3 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.9 1.4 2.6 4.4

(a) Annual changes are on a year average basis. The internet series counts the average number of advertisements carried by each of the sites contributing to the series on the same day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each site) is selected by the site operator as broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on information provided by the operators of the following sites: seek.com.au; and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) Australian JobSearch site, jobsearch.gov.au.

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TECHNICAL APPENDIX

The ANZ Job Advertisements Series now uses a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology to derive the seasonal adjustment factors. This means that data from the current month are used in estimating seasonal factors for the current and previous months. Concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor methodology from the June 2010 reference month. The concurrent adjustment methodology uses the most recent data every month whereas the forward factor approach only used it once a year. Under concurrent adjustment, the seasonal factors will also be more responsive to underlying dynamic changes than forward factors. Concurrent adjustment can result in revisions to the seasonal factors each month to estimates for earlier periods. However, in most instances, the only noticeable revisions will be to the seasonal adjustment factors for the current month, the previous month and the same month a year ago. The concurrent seasonal adjustment brings the ANZ Job Advertisements Series in line with the methodology used by the ABS for its monthly employment data.

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