Northwestern Ryan Beiermeister & Layne Kirshon Neg Harvard

Nurses PIC---1NC The United States federal government should exempt individuals with advanced degrees in technology from accredited universities in the United States from numerical limits on employment based visas. The United States federal government should reduce the numerical limit on employment based visas for individuals with advanced degrees in science from accredited universities in the United States to one visa annually, and apply the limit only to individuals with advanced degrees in nursing science. Green card scarcity prevents medical migration now---the plan opens the floodgates Hampton 10 Maricar C. P. Hampton, journalist and recipient of the New America Media Fellowship, June 15, 2010, Filipina Nurses See Long Visa Delays Despite Nursing Shortage, http://newamericamedia.org/2010/06/filipina-nurses-see-long-visa-delays-despite-nursingshortage.php
However, Virginia immigration lawyer Arnedo Valera declared, There are just no visas available. He continued, The problem is, its really frozen. Maybe we can say its subject to quota, but in reality nurses cannot come to the U.S., because the immigrant visas are frozen. Valera said that the State Departments backlog is processing the appropriate visas for health care workers from the Philippines and other countries in only up to February 2003 for people arriving this month. So we are talking of a seven-year backlog, and that still doesnt move, he said. According to the U.S. State Department website, The Immigration and Naturalization Act provides a yearly minimum of 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas, which are divided into five preference categories. One category is the Employment Third Preference, or EB-3 visas, which includes healthcare workers. The State Department defines this group as follows: Skilled Workers, Professionals Holding Baccalaureate Degrees and Other Workers receive 28.6 percent of the yearly worldwide limit, plus any unused Employment First and Second Preference visas.

Collapses public health infrastructure globally---causes rampant AIDS spread and wrecks sustainable development Solomon & Eden 10 - M. Scott Solomon, Assistant Professor of International Affairs the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida, and Aimee Eden, Ph.D. candidate in applied anthropology at the University of South Florida, February 2010, Beyond Push and Pull: Rethinking Medical Migration from the Philippines, online: https://www.appam.org/conferences/international/maastricht2010/sessions/downloads/451. 1.pdf
Increasing levels of skilled migration from less-developed to developed countries has been driven by a variety of factors, usually identified in the literature as push and pull factors. While it is analytically useful to specify factors that push medical migrants from one location and pull them to another, it is also imperative to recognize that various processes, at different spatial scales, are easily missed. For example, an underappreciated influence on migration is the emerging consensus among intergovernmental organizations (World Bank, IMF, regional development banks) that such migration is efficiency and welfare enhancing for both sending and receiving countries. This is paradoxically occurring as scholars are increasingly recognizing the necessity of human capital

formation and public health infrastructure for sustainable development. While large developing countries such as India and Brazil seem to be able to benefit, on balance, from this form of migration (through remittances, brain gain, and return migration) smaller countries have witnessed levels of skilled emigration that seriously undermine the possibility of sustainable development.A particularly consequential form of emigration from developing countries is that of skilled medical workers (physicians, nurses, technicians). Increasing shortages in wealthy countries has pulled large numbers of medical workers from developing countries. Key sending countries include the Philippines, where a significant state apparatus encourages migration of skilled labor. For example, it is estimated that 85% of Filipino nurses are working outside of the Philippines (a significant portion of the 8 million Filipinos working abroad, nearly 10% of the total population). The demand for skilled medical workers in wealthy countries will dramatically increase with the demographic shifts of an aging population and increasing medical costs. It is a tragic irony that while billions of dollars of official and private foreign aid now flow to developing countries to mitigate the crisis of particular infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, the health care systems of the developed countries are importing human resources from developing countries, leaving them with a collapsing public health infrastructure. Dr. Jaime Galvez-Tan1, vice chancellor for research at the University of the Philippines has argued this is no longer brain drain, but more appropriately, brain hemorrhage." The crisis of collapsing public health infrastructures will worsen unless and until innovative policy proposals are developed that attempt to deal with what is the very definition of an unsustainable process.

Unchecked AIDS causes genocide and war globally---magnifies the likelihood and severity of conflict Singer 2 Peter W. Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative and a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution (not the bioethicist/philosopher Peter Singer), Spring 2002, AIDS and International Security, Survival, Vol. 44, No.1 p. 145-158 "A recurring themes at all of these meetings was the new danger presented by the epidemic, not just in terms of direct victims of the " AND "the threat. The ultimate dynamic of warfare and AIDS is that their combination makes both more likely and more devastating." Education DA---1NC Unlimited green cards for students collapses global education---no country will invest in public schooling---turns the case Farrell 7 Thomas Farrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Academic Programs of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, June 29, 2007, INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AND VISITING SCHOLARS: TRENDS, BARRIERS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, Congressional Testimony, Federal News Service, p. lexis "I'd be happy to provide some information and also some opinion. I -- and I think I speak for virtually everybody in the Bureau of " AND "answering your question yet, but I think it's something that we have to deal with." Destroys global democracy---biggest internal link Hernndez-Murillo and Martinek 8 Ruben Hernndez-Murillo, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Christopher J. Martinek, research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 2008, Which Came FirstDemocracy or Growth?, The Regional Economist, p. 5-6

Economists Edward Glaeser, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes and Andrei Shleifer defend the second view that it is economic growth which stimulates democracy or the adoption of better institutions, and not the opposite. They further make the point that the accumulation of human capital is a more important determi- nant of economic growth than political insti- tutions. They studied a large set of countries in the period 1960 to 2000, classifying them into four categories: autocracies, imperfect

autocracies, imperfect democracies and stable (or perfect) democracies. Their mea- sure of democracy captures basic government practices in a combination of institutional and behavioral indicators, such as competi- tiveness of political participation, openness and competitiveness of executive recruit- ment, and constraints on the executive. Glaeser and his co-authors noticed that in 2000 nearly all countries with high levels ofeducation were classified as stable democra- cies, and nearly all stable democracies were highly educated. In contrast, the economists saw that nearly all countries run by dicta- tors were poorly educated. The authors also noticed that as education levels increased, democracies were more common, albeit many imperfect. In terms of growth, they noticed that most of the poor countries in 1960 were run by dictators. In the four decades that followed, the growth rates among poor countries varied, and some of them managed to get out of poverty while still being run by dictators. This evidence suggests, they argue, that it was not con- straints on dictators imposed by institutions that led to growth; rather, dictators chose policies that provided security of property.

GSU
The United States federal government should establish a sealed-bid, single-price auction system for the distribution of tradable visa permits to employers wishing to sponsor employment-based visas for noncitizens that hold advanced degrees in science or technology from accredited universities in the United States. Auctions should take place quarterly, with an initial yearly allocation of 280,000 visas. The non-disclosed target price for visa permits should be $10,000. Subsequent allocations of visas should rise proportionally when the average price of permits was above $10,000, and fall proportionally when the average price was below $10,000, in the prior auction. If the allocation of permits disproportionately favors large companies, the United States federal government should set aside an adequate number of permits on which for small companies to bid.

The link to politics turns the case--Pia M. Orrenius 10, senior economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Madeline Zavodny, professor of economics at Agnes Scott College, Beside the Golden Door, July, 2010, p. 112-113 Who can pass through the golden door?...adversely affected by immigration. The link especially turns predictability--Cristina M. Rodriguez 10, Professor of Law - NYU School of Law, Henry E. Stimson Visiting Professor of Law, Harvard Law School. I am a non-resident fellow at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., which has advocated the creation of a Standing Commission on Labor Markets, Economic Competitiveness, and Immigration, ARTICLE: FORTIETH ANNUAL ADMINISTRATIVE LAW ISSUE: IMMIGRATION LAW AND ADJUDICATION: CONSTRAINT THROUGH DELEGATION: THE CASE OF EXECUTIVE CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION POLICY, 59 Duke L.J. 1787, May, 2010 Creating a flexible system...public acceptance of immigration. n19

Aff -- Trinity BG -- Remove EB caps for STEM immigrants

XO CP

Peace Process DA Gender-IR K First, the frameworkthe affs epistemological understanding of security is profoundly genderedit situates the state as the center of power relations and objectifies everything outside the blinders of predictive security discoursethis calls into question their entire political strategy Tickner 1 [Ann professor at the School of International Relations USC. B.A. in History, U London. M.A. in IR, Yale. PhD in pol sci, Brandeis U Gendering World Politics: Issues and Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era] New issues and new definitions of security have been accompanied ... and oppression.45 Feministswith their bottom-up approach to security, an ontology of social relations, and an emancipatory agendaare beginning to undertake such reanalyses That guarantees extinctiontry or die Nhanenge 7 [Jytte Masters @ U South Africa, paper submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of master of arts in the subject Development Studies, ECOFEMINSM: TOWARDS INTEGRATING THE CONCERNS OF WOMEN, POOR PEOPLE AND NATURE INTO DEVELOPMENT] The androcentric premises also ... and more humanistic view than these experts. (Kelly 1990: 112-114; Eisler 1990: 3233; Schumacher 1993: 20, 126, 128, 130).

Its over 100 pages

The alternative is to reject the affirmatives gendered enframing of the worldsimply the process of critique removes the ideological blinders inherent in policy-making. The permutation is doomed to failure b/c the starting point of the 1AC was profoundly militarized Shepherd 8 [Laura J. Shepherd, Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham, Gender, Violence and Global Politics: Contemporary Debates in Feminist Security Studies, EBSCO] As discussed above, ideas about masculinity and femininity... relevant in international politics and what we assume to be legitimate ways of constructing knowledge about the world (Zalewski 1996, p. 352, emphasis in original). CP -- Eliminate income tax Solves the case better Jeff Miron A Real Stimulus National Review (online)

To create jobs, repeal the corporate-income tax.

As the unemployment rate remains in double-digit territory, policymakers continue their search for an appropriate response. The administration's preferences, as discussed this past weekend by Christina Romer, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, are tax credits for job creation and increased support for the unemployed. These policies focus on the labor market itself and aim to address unemployment in the short term. This focus is exactly backwards. Rather than attempt to target jobs in the short run, the administration should advance policies that make sense independent of the recession and that enhance economic efficiency over the long haul. One such policy is to repeal the corporate-income tax, which will stimulate employment far better than a jobs tax credit. If corporations face zero taxation on their profits, they will expand investment and employment for two reasons. First, the increased cash flow will allow corporations to invest without borrowing from banks. These new investments will generate employment both to build new plants and equipment and to staff the new factories. This is the standard Keynesian argument for businesstax cuts, and it can operate almost instantly. Second, repeal of the corporate-income tax means a higher return to investment, which encourages capital accumulation in the long run.The beauty of this approach is that taxation of corporate income never made sense in the first place; it doubletaxes corporate income, given that the personal-income tax covers both dividends and capital gains. And corporate-income taxation has other negatives. The corporate-income tax requires rules and regulations over and above the personal-income-tax system. This creates large compliance costs

and favors specific industries or kinds of capital, thus distorting private investment decisions and creating the incentive to game the system rather than just investing in industries that seem profitable. Corporate-income taxation reduces the transparency of corporate accounting, making it harder for investors to monitor corporate behavior. The corporate-income tax also gives the government a way to reward behavior it likes: by designating certain activities as "non-profit." The justification is that some activities especially those of schools, churches, and charities are socially beneficial. This may be true, but the power to define "non-profit" allows the government to decide what constitutes education, religion, or charity, and to exclude some groups that fill these roles. The decisions inevitably favor the status quo and suppress competition. The corporate-tax system, by its very name, distorts the way voters see the tax system many are led to believe that inanimate objects pay taxes. In the end, however, only people pay taxes every decision to tax affects real people and impacts far more than the direct target of the tax.The usual justification for corporate-income taxation is that it makes high-income taxpayers the corporation owners pay their fair share. Yet while some of the tax's impact falls on owners it reduces after-tax profits and therefore the dividends and capital gains received by shareholders much of the impact falls on employees, who take a hit in the form of lower wages, and on customers, who face the higher prices a corporation charges when its costs increase. High taxation pushes corporations to locate overseas, reducing employment and further harming employees. Repeal of the corporate-income tax will of course impact the federal budget, but this is true of any fiscal stimulus. And since repeal stimulates productive activity, it generates increased revenue from employment taxes, personal-income taxes, and sales taxes. The net increase in the deficit will therefore be substantially smaller than the revenues currently collected under the corporate-income tax would suggest.

AT: Heg Adv Heg is resilient and inevitablethis will continue for 100 years and their internal links isnt nearly big enough to affect it Friedman 9 The Next 100 Years 13-31 We are now in an Americageopolitical forces work

a lot of pages
Heg fails doesnt prevent war Kober 10 The Deterrence Illusion The Guardian Online
The world at the beginning of the 21st century bears an eerie and disquieting resemblance to Europe at the beginning of the last century.That was also an era of globalisation. New technologies for transportation and communication were transforming the world. Europeans had lived so long in peace that war seemed irrational. And they were right, up to a point. The first world war was the product of a mode of rational thinking that went badly off course. The peace of Europe was based on security assurances. Germany was the protector of Austria-Hungary, and Russia was the protector of Serbia.The prospect of escalation was supposed to prevent war, and it did until, finally, it didn't. The Russians, who should have been deterred they had suffered a terrible defeat at the hands of Japan just a few years before decided they had to come to the support of their fellow Slavs.As countries honoured their commitments, a system that was designed to prevent war instead widened it.We have also been living in an age of globalisation, especially since the end of the cold war, but it too is increasingly being challenged.And just like the situation at the beginning of the last century, deterrence is not working. Much is made, for example, of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) invoking Article V the famous "three musketeers" pledge that an attack on one member is to be considered as an attack on all following the terrorist attacks of September 11.But the United States is the most powerful member of Nato by far. Indeed, in 2001, it was widely considered to be a hegemon, a hyperpower. Other countries wanted to be in Nato because they felt an American guarantee would provide security.And yet it was the US that was attacked.This failure of deterrence has not received the attention it deserves. It is, after all, not unique. The North Vietnamese were not deterred by the American guarantee to South Vietnam. Similarly, Hezbollah was not deterred in Lebanon in the 1980s, and American forces were assaulted in Somalia. What has been going wrong?The successful deterrence of the superpowers during the cold war led to the belief that if such powerful countries could be deterred, then lesser powers

should fall into line when confronted with an overwhelmingly powerful adversary.It is plausible, but it may be too rational. For all their ideological differences, the US and the Soviet Union observed red lines during the cold war. There were crises Berlin, Cuba, to name a couple but these did not touch on emotional issues or vital interests, so that compromise and retreat were possible.Indeed, what we may have missed in the west is the importance of retreat in Soviet ideology. "Victory is impossible unless [the revolutionary parties] have learned both how to attack and how to retreat properly," Lenin wrote in "Left-Wing" Communism: An Infantile Disorder. When the Soviets retreated, the US took the credit. Deterrence worked. But what if retreat was part of the plan all along?What if, in other words, the Soviet Union was the exception rather than the rule?That question is more urgent because, in the post-cold war world, the US has expanded its security guarantees, even as its enemies show they are not impressed.The Iraqi insurgents were not intimidated by President Bush's challenge to "bring 'em on". The Taliban have made an extraordinary comeback from oblivion and show no respect for American power. North Korea is demonstrating increasing belligerence.And yet the US keeps emphasising security through alliances. "We believe that there are certain commitments, as we saw in a bipartisan basis to Nato, that need to be embedded in the DNA of American foreign policy," secretary of state Hillary Clinton affirmed in introducing the new National Security Strategy.But that was the reason the US was in Vietnam. It had a bipartisan commitment to South Vietnam under the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation, reaffirmed through the Tonkin Gulf Resolution, which passed Congress with only two dissenting votes. It didn't work, and found its commitments were not embedded in its DNA. Americans turned against the war, Secretary Clinton among them.The great powers could not guarantee peace in Europe a century ago, and the US could not guarantee it in Asia a half-century ago.

No impact to decline no credible threats Bandow 10 Military SpendingFor What?

The United States dominates the globe militarily. The threats facing America pale compared to its capabilities. Why, then, is Washington spending so much on the military?In 2010 the U.S. will spend roughly $700 billion on the military. This is an increase of 2 percent (after inflation) from the Obama administration's original nonwar defense budget of $534 billion.Despite initial plans for zero growth in defense spending in coming years, there are rumors that the Department of Defense will receive a 2 percent increase in real outlays through 2015. Still, some conservatives want to enshrine a military buildup in a law mandating fixed outlays at 4, 5 or even 6 percent of gross domestic product. Hawks focus on the percentage of GDP going to the military currently about 4.4 percent since that figure has fallen over the years.America spends more inflation- adjusted dollars on the military today than at any time since the end of World War II. Figured in 2000 dollars, the U.S. devoted $774.6 billion to the military in 1945, the final year of World War II. In 1953, the final year of the Korean War, military outlay ran to $416.1 billion. Expenditure during the Vietnam War peaked at $421.3 billion in 1968.By contrast, in 2010 even before the Afghan surge and other unplanned expenditure the administration expected to spend $517.8 billion. That's more than during the lengthy, but often warm, Cold War.Expenditure as a percentage of GDP has fallen because the U.S. economy has grown. GDP in 2010 (in 2000 dollars) will run to about $11.7 trillion. That is almost twice as much as in 1986, more than three times as much as in 1968, and nearly six times as much as in 1953.Military outlay should be tied to threats, not economic growth. Can anyone credibly claim the military threat facing America is two, three, or six times as great today as during those years?Today the U.S. does not face a significant military threat. As Colin Powell famously declared in 1991 when chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "I'm running out of enemies. I'm down to Castro and Kim Il Sung."The U.S. has no great power enemies. Relations with China and Russia are at times uneasy, but not confrontational, let alone warlike. Washington is allied with every other industrialized state.America possesses the most sophisticated nuclear arsenal and the most powerful conventional force. Washington's reach exceeds that of Rome and Britain at their respective peaks. Other nations, most notably China, are stirring, but it will take years before they match, let alone overtake, the U.S.Even subtracting the costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars leaves American military outlay around five times that of China and 10 times that of Russia. Combine a gaggle of adversaries, enemies and rogues Burma, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and the U.S. spends perhaps 25 times as much.The United States is not alone. The European Union has 10 times the GDP and three times the population of Russia. Military outlay by the U.S. plus its NATO allies accounts for about 70 percent of

world military spending. Add in America's other allies and friends, such as South Korea, and the total share of global military outlay hits 80 percent.In short, Washington spends what it spends not to defend America but to maintain the ability to overpower other nations. But it will become increasingly expensive for America to preserve the ability to attack countries like China.Terrorism remains a pressing security threat. However, terrorist attacks, though horrid, do not pose an existential danger. Al-Qaida is no replacement for Nazism and Communism, nuclear-topped ICBMs and armored divisions.Nor is traditional military force the best way to combat terrorism. Indeed, foreign intervention often promotes terrorism, like swatting a hornet's nest. America's military spending is determined by its foreign policy. America's commitments are a matter of choice. They don't make sense today. Engagement is good, but military force is not the only form of engagement. And any international involvement must balance costs and benefits. Adjusting commitments would allow a vastly different, and less expensive, force structure. The U.S. could make significant cuts and still maintain the globe's strongest and most sophisticated military one well able to defend Americans.

AT: Econ Adv Economic collapse inevitable now better MacKenzie 8 Are We Doomed New Scientist, Ebsco DOOMSDAY The end of civilizationcannot be sustainable. . k-waves means growth causes extinction Chase-Dunn and Podobnik 99 The Future of Global Conflict p. 43 While the onset of a periodcollective suicide does not occur. Growth solves war Trainer 2 If You Want Affluence, Prepare for War, Democracy & Nature Ebsco If this limits-to-growth analysisThe Simpler Way Growth causes terrorism Audrey Cronin Behind the Curve: Globalization and International Terrorism Project Muse The objectives of international terrorismnetwork of financial and information resources. Nuclear war Hellman 8 The Odds for Nuclear Armageddon The threat of nuclear terrorismand China over Taiwan). Growth causes diseases and mutations escalates Hamburg 8 Germs Go Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America
Globalization, the worldwide movement toward economic, financial, trade, and com- munications integration, has impacted pub- lic health significantly. Technology and eco- nomic interdependence allow diseases to spread globally at rapid speeds. Experts believe that the increase in international travel and commerce, including the increas- ingly global nature of food handling, pro- cessing, and sales contribute to the spread of emerging infectious diseases.47 Increased global trade has also brought more and more people into contact with zoonosis -- diseases that originated in animals before jumping to humans. For example, in 2003, the monkeypox virus entered the U.S. through imported Gambian giant rats sold in the nations under-regulated exotic pet trade. The rats infected pet prairie dogs, which passed the virus along to humans.48 International smuggling of birds, brought into the U.S. without undergoing inspection and/or quarantine, is of particular concern to public health experts who worry that it may be a pathway for the H5N1 bird flu virus to enter the country. Lower cost and efficient means of interna- tional transportation allow people to travel to more remote places and potential expo- sure to more infectious diseases. And the close proximity of passengers on passenger planes, trains, and cruise ships over the course of many hours puts people at risk for higher levels of exposure. If a person con- tracts a disease abroad, their symptoms may not emerge until they return home, having exposed others to the infection during their travels. In addition, planes and ships can themselves become breeding grounds for infectious diseases.

The 2002-2003 SARS outbreak spread quickly around the globe due to international travel. SARS is caused by a new strain of coronavirus, the same family of viruses that frequently cause the common cold. This contagious and sometimes fatal respirator y illness first appeared in China in November 2002. Within 6 weeks, SARS had spread worldwide, trans- mitted around the globe by unsuspecting trav- elers. According to CDC, 8,098 people were infected and 774 died of the disease.49SARS represented the first severe, newly emergent infectious disease of the 21st century.50It illustrated just how quickly infec- tion can spread in a highly mobile and inter- connected world. SARS was contained and controlled because public health authorities in the communities most affected mounted a rapid and effective response. SARS also demonstrated the economic con- sequences of an emerging infectious disease in closely interdependent and highly mobile world. Apart from the direct costs of inten- sive medical care and disease control inter- ventions, SARS caused widespread social dis-ruption and economic losses. Schools, hos- pitals, and some borders were closed and thousands of people were placed in quarantine. International travel to affected areas fell sharply by 50 - 70 percent. Hotel occu- pancy dropped by more than 60 percent. Businesses, particularly in tourism-related areas, failed. According to a study by Morgan Stanley, the Asia-Pacific regions economy lost nearly $40 billion due to SARS.51 The World Bank found that the East Asian regions GDP fell by 2 percent in the second quarter of 2003.52 Toronto experienced a 13.4 percent drop in tourism in 2003.

AT: Warming Adv Tech doesnt solve A) Waste buildup too fast James Speth 2008 The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability Gigapedia, 1-2 Another reason for concerngenerally outstripped improvements B) Tech fails and cant be implemented Homer-Dixon 1 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Fall 2001 p.76-116 Historically, cornucopians have been right toas these stresses increase. The ONLY way to solve warming is by decreasing growth, 10 year threshold Chris Martenson 9 Copenhagen & Economic Growth You Cant Have Both
I want to point out that a massive discrepancy exists between the official pronouncements emerging from Copenhagen on carbon emissions and recent government actions to spur economic growth. Before and during Copenhagen (and after, too, we can be sure), politicians and central bankers across the globe have worked tirelessly to return the global economy to a path of growth. We need more jobs, we are told; we need economic growth, we need more people consuming more things. Growth is the ever-constant word on politicians' lips. Official actions amounting to tens of trillions of dollars speak to the fact that this is, in fact, our number-one global priority.But the consensus coming out of Copenhagen is that carbon emissions have to be reduced by a vast amount over the next few decades. These two ideas are mutually exclusive. You can't have both.Economic growth requires energy, and most of our energy comes from hydrocarbons - coal, oil, and natural gas. Burning those fuel sources releases carbon. Therefore, increasing economic activity will release more carbon. It is a very simple concept. Nobody has yet articulated how it is that we will reconcile both economic growth and reduced use of hydrocarbon energy. And so the proposed actions coming out of Copenhagen are not grounded in reality, and they are set dead against trillions of dollars of spending.There is only one thing that we know about which has curbed, and even reversed, the flow of carbon into the atmosphere, and that is the recent economic contraction.This is hard proof of the connection between the economy and energy. It should serve as proof that any desire to grow the economy is also an explicit call to increase the amount of carbon being expelled into the atmosphere. The idea of salvation via the electric plug-in car or other renewable energy is a fantasy. The reality is that any new technology takes decades to reach full market penetration, and we haven't even really begun to introduce any yet. Time, scale, and cost must be weighed when considering any new technology's potential to have a significant impact on our energy-use patterns.For example, a recent study concluded that another 20 years would be required for electric vehicles to have a significant impact on US gasoline consumption.Twenty to thirty years is the

normal length of time for any new technology to scale up and fully penetrate a large market.But this study, as good as it was in calculating the time, scale, and cost parameters of technology innovation and penetration, still left out the issue of resource scarcity. Is there enough lithium in the world to build all these cars? Neodymium? This is a fourth issue that deserves careful consideration, given the scale of the overall issue. But even if we did manage to build hundreds of millions of plug-in vehicles, where would the electricity come from? Many people mistakenly think that we are well on our way to substantially providing our electricity needs using renewable sources such as wind and solar. We are not.

Complexity means quick collapse is net-better Jeff Vail 5 The Logic of Collapse
But despite the declining marginal returns, society is not capable of reducing expenditure, or even reducing the growth in expenditure. I discuss this at length in A Theory of Power, but the basic fact is that society isat its very rootan evolutionary development that uses a continual increase in complexity to address social needsand to ensure its own survival. So, as societies continue to invest more and more in social complexity at lower and lower marginal rates of return, they become more and more inefficient until eventually they are no longer capable of withstanding even commonplace stresses. They collapse.This may seem too deterministicafter all, it suggests that all societies will eventually collapse. While that may cause our inherent sense of hubris to perk up for a moment, we should remember that this equation fits our data quite wellevery civilization that has ever existed has, in fact, collapsed. Our present global civilization is, or course, the sole exception. A look back at the contemporary chroniclers of history shows that every great civilization thinks that they are somehow different, that history will not repeat with themand their hubris is shared with gusto by members of the present global civilization.Of course, as discrete empires and societies grow ever more cumbersome they do not always collapse in the spectacular fashion of the Western Roman Empire. If they exist in a peer-polity situationthat is, they are surrounded by competitors of similar levels of complexitythen they will tend to be conquered and absorbed. It is only in the case of a power vacuumlike the Chacoans or Western Romansthat we witness such a spectacular loss of complexity. In the modern world, we have not witnessed such a collapse as we exist in a global peer-polity continuum. When the Spanish empire grew too cumbersome the British were there to take over, and the mantel has since passed on to America, with the EU, China and others waiting eagerly in the wings. In the modern world there can no longer be an isolated collapseour next experience with this will be global.In fact, the modern civilization continuum has existed for so long without a global collapse because we have managed to tap new energy sourcescoal, then oil each with a higher energy surplus than the last. This has buoyed the marginal return curve temporarily with each discovery, but has not changed the fundamental dynamics of collapse.Perhaps we should take a step back and look at collapse in general. Our psychological investment in the goodness of high-civilization leads to the commonly held conclusion that collapse is badand that to advocate it would be irrational. But from a purely economic point of view, collapse actually increases the overall benefit that social complexity provides to society for their level of investment. It makes economic sense. In the graph above, C3-B1 and C1-B1 provide the same benefit to society but for dramatically different support burdens required to maintain their respective levels of complexity. C1-B1 is a much more desirable location for a society than C3-B1, so collapse from C3-B1 to C1-B1 is actually a good thing. With the growing burden of todays global society, the global inequality and injustice that seems to grow daily, collapse is beginning to make economic sense. In fact, an entire philosophical movement, Primitivism, has sprung up dedicated to convincing the world that a C1-B1, hamlet society is in fact a far better place.

Transition is sustainable, future wont be Richard Heinberg 10 Life After Growth By saying this, I ama life after growth http://wordpress.richardheinberg.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/museletter-214.pdf

a lot of pages
Transition wont cause extinction

Heinberg 4 Power Down 149-150 These are lessons of the pastwanted by pressing buttons. Transition wont be violent the longer we wait the harder we fall Trainer 2 Debating the significance of the Global Eco-village Movement: A reply to Takis Fotopoulos
However I am not convinced the transition must inevitably involve overt conflict, let alone violence. It probably will, but it is conceivable that as conditions deteriorate and as the existence of a more sensible way becomes more evident, and as access to it increases as a result of Eco-village building, there will be a more or less peaceful shift to The Simpler Way. Again I do not think this is very likely, but it is possibility to be worked for. Nothing is foregone in heading down that path, on the understanding that in time it might become clear that overt confrontation might have to be accepted. The longer we can grow while avoiding confrontation the less likely that we will be crushed if it does occur. However the issue is of no practical importance at this point in time. Whatever conclusion one comes to on it our best strategy here and now is to plunge into establishing and spreading the new ways. It will be a long time before it will be evident whether or not we must contest those who have power now, or whether they will lose their power in a collapse of the present resource-expensive infrastructures and of legitimacy.

Economic collapse forces a cultural change away from growth James Speth 8 The Bridge at the End of the World p. 211-213 Unfortunately, the sures path tohelp lead to real change. Post-transition society will be sustainable Heinberg 10 What if the economy doesnt recover?
The basic factors that will inevitably shape whatever replaces the growth economy are knowable. To survive and thrive for long, societies have to operate within the planet's budget of sustainably extractable resources. This means that even if we don't know exactly what a desirable post-growth economy and lifestyle will look like, we know enough to begin working toward them. 3. It is possible for economies to persist for centuries or millennia with no or minimal growth. That is how most economies operated until recent times. If billions of people through countless generations lived without economic growth, we can do so as wellnow and far into the future. The end of growth does not mean the end of the world. 4. Life in a non-growing economy can be fulfilling, interesting, and secure. The absence of growth does not imply a lack of change or improvement. Within a non-growing or equilibrium economy there can still be a continuous development of practical skills, artistic expression, and technology. In fact, some historians and social scientists argue that life in an equilibrium economy can be superior to life in a fast-growing economy: while growth creates opportunities for some, it also typically intensifies competitionthere are big winners and big losers, and (as in most boom towns) the quality of relations within the community can suffer as a result. Within a non-growing economy it is possible to maximize benefits and reduce factors leading toMuseLetter 214 / March 2010decay, but doing so will require pursuing appropriate goals: instead of more, we must strive for better; rather than promoting increased economic activity for its own sake, we must emphasize whatever increases quality of life without stoking consumption. One way to do this is to reinvent and redefine growth itself. The transition to a no-growth economy (or one in which growth is defined in a fundamentally different way) is inevitable, but it will go much better if we plan for it rather than simply watching in dismay as institutions we have come to rely upon fail, and then try to improvise a survival strategy in their absence.

Quarters v. Emory IW - Auctions CP

Auctions CP 1NC/2NC cites

Quarterly auction accurately sets the optimal number of visas for the labor market means zero job losses or wage deflation Peri 10 the impact of immigrants in recession and economic expansion
These facts suggest that legal immigration should also be made to respond to labor market conditions. How can this be done? One principle would be to allow the number of employer visa applications to serve as the main indicator of how strong labor demand is under current economic conditions. This obviates the need for the government to undertake the very difficult task of determining labor demand through incomplete and insufficiently timely statistical sources. For instance, suppose firms were able to apply and bid one quarter in advance for foreign workers permits in programs such as the H-1B, in an auction. While the government could set the total number of permits, the relative bidding by employers would ensure that visas are allocated efficiently. Moreover a high winning price would signal high demand and could prompt a larger number of permits in the following quarter. In order to implement this policy, one would need to determine several details of the auction and some economists have spelled out how such a system could work.25 An independent government agency or commission could be called upon to determine the number of permits issued and the details of implementation.26 How Could Legal Immigration Become More Responsive to the Economic Cycle? How much would net immigration ideally vary over the economic cycle? As a thought experiment, let us present here a few simple reference calculations. The current foreign-born population in the United States is about 40 million people (according to 2009 data) and over the last 20 years the return migration rate has been about 1.5 percent of the stock each year.27 On average, therefore, if 600,000 new immigrants arrived each year, the size of the foreign-born population would remain unchanged (resulting in zerimmigration that affects the labor market and the productive outcomes in the US economy, we should think of 600,000 new immigrants as the floor that produces no changes at all in the current US labor market. Allowing new entries through work-related visas in years of economic expansion on top of the 600,000 needed to maintain the stock would allow the United States to retain the positive long-run effects of immigration while minimizing the negative short-run effects. Implementing this policy would, of course, require careful thought about which types of visas should be encouraged to respond to the economic cycle, and I will not go into detail here. The basic principle, however, is that a labor-demand driven number of new visas can simply reinforce the natural cyclicality of immigration and speed up the capital and technology adjustment in the face of immigration. For instance if we assume that gross inflows of workers on employment-based visas of some kind (temporary or permanent) were allowed to increase by 300,000 during economic expansion in addition to the baseline of 600,000, and if we assume that in a given decade half of the years, on average, have strong economic growth, this would imply 1.5 million net new immigrants per decade, representing about 1 percent of the labor force of 150 million people. This, in turn, would imply a net increase of 0.26 percent of income per native worker over that period and no job losses either

CP puts businesses in the drivers seat its their demand that determines the level of the cap Peri 10 the impact of immigrants in recession and economic expansion
A redesigned system could address this problem in several ways. First, it could allow employers demand for work visas to play a stronger role in determining the actual number of visas issued. A basic thought experiment suggests that US workers across the skill spectrum would benefit if new entries were allowed to increase by about 300,000 in years of economic expansion, and remain constant in times of economic stress. In addition, a share of the visas should be allocated to less-skilled workers, especially those who perform primarily manual work that native workers increasingly shun. This would help to reduce the incentive for less-skilled workers to come to the United States illegally. Economics alone cannot be the only criterion to guide immigration policies. However, if the goal is to make immigration more responsive to US economic needs (on average and over the business cycle), shifting the balance of permanent immigration to employment based channels would also be one way to accomplish this.

Clear standards for the cp = certain and predictable for businesses and immigrants Rodriguez 10 Fortieth Annual Administrative Law issue Predictability and responsivenessidentify changed circumstances. Independent agency solves efficiency and predictability Pia M. Orrenius, Beside the Golden Door, p. 83-84 The government might also consider setting a maximum prices, which it would not disclosewhich is where their expected productivity is the greatest Cant win any cap offense average price would provide immediate transparent data about the state of the market means cap is flexible and always the most efficient Constant and Zimmerman 5, Immigrant Performance and Selective Immigration Policy

Urgent needs for short-term skilled labour should be accommodated by establishing a nonbureaucratic system for temporary immigration. Unfortunately, it is very difficult if not impossible for a public administrator or an outside observer to identify the real short-term needs of the business community. Hence, an auction system operating among interested companies for the allocation of immigration certificates would appear to be the best choice to satisfy temporary immigration needs. These certificates would entitle the company to recruit an immigrant on the world market for a job for a defined period of time. Such an auction system translates relative labour market shortages into relative bid prices. Existing shortages would become transparent and excess demand would show where further policy response is necessary. Since companies would have to pay for the right to hire a worker, a share of the immigration gains would be given to the public coffers. A European-wide quota on temporary migrants would allow fixing the number of temporary visas at the political level.cAn auction system is superior to alternatives such as a fee system where companies have to pay an amount which has been fixed according to political rules mainly as it matches supply and demand more efficiently. Companies will only be willing to purchase at an auction if they are unable to satisfy their demand on the regular local labour market. The objective of the auction can be underscored by a minimum bid requirement. There is no need to verify formally the non-availability of native labour. The certificates should be limited to a period of three years, and could be potentially renewable for the same person. Temporary immigrants should have the right to be accompanied by their family members, and spouses should be entitled to a work permit. During their employment under this programme, temporary immigrants should have the right to apply for permanent immigration under the point system. Such an arrangement would create an appropriate link between the temporary and the permanent immigration systems.

CP is Pareto-optimal meaning that it maximizes welfare between natives, immigrants, and citizens of other countries that stay there no risk of a deficit based on migrant welfare Collie 9 Auction k2 make immigration benefit the economy ensures an efficient allocation of immigrants to positions where theyre most needed Zavodny 10; Beyond Arizona: An Immigration Approach that Can Work Immigration reform also needs to create a wayoffset any costs immigration creates.

Comparative evidence best policy option solves case better and avoids wage deflation Bauer and Zimmerman 99 Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe
The third possibility is to auction the right to immigrate to potential migrants or native firms. To economists, this idea is quite appealing, for an auction selects migrants according to their ability and willingness to pay. This selection mechanism would efficiently identify those migrants who have a large capacity to produce goods of high economic value while working in the receiving country. While a point system also discriminates among migrants by their economic value, auctions will, in addition, self- select those persons who have the best chance to be economically successful. In general, this holds true, irrespective of whether the immigration visas are auctioned to potential migrants or to native firms. Bauer and Zimmermann (1999) have shown that, in the case of temporary migration, the most efficient immigration policy, in terms of selecting those immigrants who are of the highest economic value for the receiving country, is an auction of immigration visas to native firms. In such an auction, the EU would announce a quota for the total number of entry permissions from the new EU member countries every year. The immigration visas are only temporary. In this auction, such temporary immigration visas are given to those native firms who are willing to pay the highest price for the visas. The firms then select what type of migrants they, themselves, will employ. If the firms are required to pay migrants the same wage as they would pay a domestic worker, this system guarantees that the firms will employ foreigners only for occupations and tasks, for which they can not find domestic workers.The main advantage of the auction system is that it does not suffer from the deficiencies of the point system and the bilateral agreements. Compared to other options of a selective immigration policy, the auction system is relatively inexpensive, and the costs pay their way through the receipts of the auction. If the receipts are higher than the costs, the surplus might be used to compensate those domestic workers who potentially suffer from immigration. To summarise, the discussion in this section has shown that the EU has several options regarding migration policy towards the East only in the short- run, since, according to Article 8a of the Single European Act, a system of free mobility seems to be unavoidable. However, as in the past, migration restrictions could be implemented in the short-run. The analysis in section 3 of this report has shown that, in such a restricted migration regime, the EU should opt for a selective migration policy in order to avoid potential burdens for their native population. The discussion of different selective immigration policies has shown that an auction system is superior to all other policy options. In the case of a potential EU enlargement, bilateral agreements regulating the temporary immigration from the new member countries are the second-best option.

A2 Uncertainty cp lets labor demand be the driving factor in the number of visas, not the other way around produces the most efficient allocation of labor Peri 10 the impact of immigrants in recession and economic expansion

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Transparency solves Orrenius 9-13 Foreign Stimulus New York Times In place of our current systems lotteries and first-come, first-served policies enhance our economys competitiveness and the nations well-being. Businesses and immigrants like the counterplan- it prioritizes best immigrants Orrenius 10 Beside the Golden Door p.85-86 Permit Auctions Plan: Auctions are structured as a sealed-bid, single-price format the administrative costs and default rates might be high. Backlog Turn

Backlog turn- worsens permanent residency backlog- deters immigrants from coming Orrenius 10, Beside the Golden Door, p. 31-32 Some of the asymmetry in current immigration law has been addressed with temporary worker programsthe uncertainty and lags may deter and uncountable number of potential high-skilled migrants. Backlog causes people to leave Marshall Fitz 9, Prosperous Immigrants, Prosperous Americans Problem: Employment-based green card backlogs
A significant disconnect exists between the annual allocation of temporary and permanent employment-based visas. That disconnect has generated enormous dysfunction through- out the system. Only 140,000 employment-based permanent visas, or green cards, are available each year for workers and their spouses and children. Most employment-based green cards are granted to foreign professionals who are already here and working on a temporary visa. But the short supply, which has not been updated in nearly two decades, has created years-long backlogs. Employment-based green card numbers have been unavailable to professionals holding bachelors degrees during most of the past year, for example, no matter how long ago they started the green degrees face backlogs of up to a decade if they hail from certain countries. These backlogs mean that sponsored workers can be stuck in the same job for yearsin some cases as many as eight or nine years. Tied to a single sponsoring employer, these workers are prevented from asserting their right to pursue income-maximizing opportuni- ties. That stagnation creates a depressing effect on the labor market, hurting all workers. Moreover, spouses of the sponsored principal are prohibited from working throughout the entire period. That obviously creates an unhealthy dynamic in which one spouses career must remain in abeyance until the protracted green card process concludes. Legitimate employers feel the effect as well. Because sponsored workers must typically remain in the position for which they were sponsored, employers are not able to move workers into more productive capacities. Personal, company, and government resources are wasted as temporary visas, travel documents, and other similar items must be constantly renewed. And workers and their families face tremendous difficulties in securing loans to purchase homes, enrolling in universities as in-state residents, and pursuing career opportunities for spouses. What this increasingly means is that highly talented, highly productive professionals who have been educated in U.S. schools take their brainpower elsewhere.42 This ultimately harms the U.S. economy and the American worker.

Auction CP - Economy NB 1nc Large flow of immigrants depress wages and job growth when the economy is already shaky their studies all presume long-term trends and sound economic fundamentals Peri 10 the impact of immigrants in recession and economic expansion Most (though not all) economic research over the last decadejob creation and productivity boosts during recession.

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Only pegging visa levels to labor demand makes immigration beneficial for the economy in the short term Peri 10 the impact of immigrants in recession and economic expansion

Second, the estimated positive long-run effects of immigrationkept in mind when designing the policies.

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Auctioning visas resolves the plans pressure on labor markets Orrenius 10, Beside the Golden Door, p 112 The plan outlined here mitigates the effectlow-skilled workers from adverse effects. Terror NB Streamlines visa process- lets ICE do counterterror Noah Millman 10 TheAmericanScene.com Auction all visas. That would provide an incentive to Congress to increase.seems to be pretty good at dealing with already.

Info does not specify where in blog....

Solves terrorism Steve King 10 House Committee on the judiciary subcommittee on immigration, citizenship, refugees, border security, and international law holdsa hearing on US citizenship and immigration services, rep. zoe Lofgren holds a hearing on US citizenship and immigration services Most importantly, it includes the cost of background checks and fraud detection message that those who commit fraud face a credible threat of punishment, closed quote. Morgan 9 2NC Entrepreneurs cp tilts admissions towards young workers Peri 10 an elegant solution to immigration problem Clearly there is an excess demandboon to the economy. Young workers = more likely to be entrepreneurs Miller 2K The Habitat for Entrepreneurship

Ready acceptance of diversity and youth. Silicon Valley boasts a large number of very young entrepreneurs, as well as many immigrant entrepreneurs. The Valleys social and economic system emphasizes merit, so talented young people and immigrants are readily accepted. Flexibility, agility, and speed are crucial, and the young are especially agile. Further, they are less risk-aversethough not necessarily less thoughtful in their risktakingbecause they have a lifetime to recover from a failure. In October 1999, the Economist reported that: This cult of individual effort, completely detached from the old hierarchical or social structures, can be found everywhere in Silicon Valley. The place is full of bright immigrants willing to sacrifice their ancestral ties for a seat at the tablefor example, almost 30 percent of the 4,000 companies started between 1995 and 1998 were founded by Chinese or Indians. The Valley takes the idea of individual merit extremely seriously. People are judged on their brainpower, rather than their sex or seniority; many of the new Internet

firms are headed by people in their mid-20s. In addition to their contributions in Silicon Valley, immigrant entrepreneurs build connections to centers of excellence and specialization in the countries from which they came. These networks give Silicon Valley companies access to skills, technologies, and markets in other regions of the world. But capital also flows from other countries into Silicon Valley, since these networks often provide two-way exchange, leading to outsourcing, co- investments, technology exchanges, and networked based innovation.

Politics NB Auction CP dodges politics and wages David Gauvey Herbert 10, Cap-And-Trade For Immigrants? National Journal
Forget the "danged" border fence, Arizona's controversial new law, and the estimated 12 million illegal aliens in the United States. The biggest battle in the upcoming immigration debate will be over managing the future influx of computer scientists, dishwashers, and every stratum of foreign worker in between. Pro-business lawmakers are squaring off with pro-union Democrats. Perhaps the stalled climate-change bill holds the answer. Leading economists contend that the freemarket principles that once made cap-and-trade a palatable compromise in the global-warming debate could work for immigration.It's no secret that Washington's immigration policy does a poor job of recruiting the highly skilled foreign workers who make Silicon Valley buzz. Nor does it offer enough legal paths for the unskilled, undocumented workers who keep America's farms, restaurants, and construction sites humming.The government allots just 65,000 H1-B visas for skilled employees a year, a number that has remained more or less unchanged since 1990. The result? Some 182,000 foreign-born students who earned science and math degrees in the United States were forced to leave the country after graduation between 2003 and 2007, according to the Technology Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank.It's not much better at the unskilled end of the spectrum. There are some 3 million agricultural workers in the United States, about 2 million of whom are family farmers and their relatives. Fifty to 75 percent of the remaining 1 million are illegal immigrants, according to the American Farm Bureau. Yet the government issued just 149,000 H2-A visas for temporary agriculture laborers in 2009."We'd be happy to hire domestic workers if they were there," said Ron Gaskill, the Farm Bureau's senior director of congressional relations. "American parents just don't raise their kids to be agriculture workers."Meanwhile, demand for unskilled labor is climbing. Nearly half of the fastest-growing professions in the next decade will pay less than $25,000 annually, according to an April report from the Labor Department.What to do? A handful of bills floating around in Congress would chip away at the problem, creating temporary agricultural worker programs and allowing entrepreneurs and foreign-born students who earn their doctorates in the U.S. to jump the line for green cards.Those are a start, but some economists want lawmakers to think bigger.Pia Orrenius, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas, and Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at Agnes Scott College in Georgia, believe that a variation of capand-trade -- the scheme to swap emissions permits as a way to curb global warming -- could work for immigration. Instead of handing out visas to foreign workers and employers on an ad hoc basis, Orrenius and Zavodny write in their new book, Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization , the government should auction off work permits.Companies would bid for high-skill and low-skill permits good for five years, as well as shorter, seasonal permits for agriculture workers. The auction model would help ensure that foreign workers are recruited by the companies and industries that need them most, thereby minimizing competition between international talent and U.S. citizens. Businesses could also resell permits, creating an opportunity for industries that need more of them. Proceeds from the auctions could be used to finance job training for unemployed citizens.Government auctions aren't new, notes Richard Freeman, an economics professor at Harvard University who specializes in labor markets. He backs a version of Orrenius and Zavodny's idea. The Federal Communications Commission regularly auctions off segments of the broadband spectrum, for example. "The auction idea has always seemed to me to be a simple, free-market solution," he said.An even simpler plan would let companies buy work visas for a set price. That would streamline the visa process but still give U.S. workers an edge because a company would usually prefer to hire a citizen than pay a fee. When demand for visas increases during boom times, the government would make more available. During a recession, it would offer fewer of them.Neither plan would cost companies much more than they spend now,

proponents contend. Orrenius and Zavodny imagine auctioning high-skill permits for $10,000, lowskill permits for $6,000, and seasonal permits for $2,000. (Firms regularly pay as much as $10,000 in legal fees for H1-B visas, while illegal immigrants hoping to find work here often must shell out $2,000 or more to "coyotes" to smuggle them across the border.)A visa auction, like cap-and-trade before it, is an exciting concept because it bridges the ideological divide, said Michael Clemens, a research fellow at the nonpartisan Center for Global Development. "On the one hand, the idea of auctioning visas sounds to many people like the rampant free market," he said. "On the other hand, raising revenue from migrants to compensate U.S. labor for any displacement and fiscal burden is a profoundly Left-friendly idea, and related provisions in NAFTA, related to trade not migration, were thrown in to get the Left on board."At first blush, Big Business and Big Labor seem to be on the same page. Unions say they understand that migrant labor is critical for the economy, and business leaders acknowledge that an unlimited number of work visas would drive down wages for citizens.

CP dodges politics Orrenius Beside the Golden Door, p. 112-113 Who can pass through the golden door? The plan proposed here shifts the focus on immigration from family reunificationto workers and communities adversely affected by immigration.

China DA 1NC
China winning talent race with the US reforming visa policies causes flight to the US theyre more important for home countries because the US has enough of a stabilized lead Spotts 09 (For china, a reverse brain drain in science)
China has hung a Help Wanted sign for scientists and engineers, dangling big-bucks salaries and sparkling new labs to lure expatriates back from the United States. Not long ago, the government aimed such efforts at snagging freshly minted PhDs or entry-level teachers and researchers at US universities. Now theyre going after full professors folks with a research track record and a proven ability to run a lab. And theyre offering relocation allowances of $146,000 plus salaries reportedly as high as $250,000 a year to do it.Chinas effort is the latest wrinkle in what some experts see as a decade-long loss for the US of foreign nationals mainly from Asia who are taking their strong, US-honed science and technology skills and heading home.The concern: At a time when science and technology are becoming ever more fundamental to economic progress, the US is losing many of its best and brightest. The US government is asleep at the wheel here, says Vivek Wadhwa, an adjunct professor at Duke Universitys Pratt School of Engineering and a senior research associate at Harvard Law School.And its not clear the US is able to fill the vacuum at least for now as these people leave. American students seem to prefer careers in business, law, or medicine rather than in science, math, or engineering.Reliable statistics on the number of experienced foreign scientists and engineers going back home are scant. But a look at changes in the proportion of foreign students staying back in the US after earning their PhDs is revealing. The percentage of those who were still in the US two years after receiving their doctorates slipped from 71 percent between 2001 and 2003 to 66 percent in 2005, according to a study by Michael Finn at the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education in Oak Ridge, Tenn. The larger trends indicate that, [W]hile foreign doctorate recipients stayed in increasing numbers during the 1980s and 1990s, this no longer seems to be the case, Mr. Finn noted.Data on more-experienced scientists and engineers remain anecdotal. A physicist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory says that some of his physicist friends are moving back, including a senior professor at a major US university whod been in the US some 20 years. In the short term, if China can draw 1,000 ethnic Chinese professors from the US, thats a big number, notes the physicist, who says hes received calls from the Chinese government and asked not to be named.Several factors are driving the purported exodus not least

of which are prospects back home. India and China have posted electrifying economic growth rates in the past decade. Growth has slowed with the current global economic crisis, but still remains at enviable levels.Established professionals returning home are drawn by what they see as better career opportunities, a better quality of life, and the chance of being closer to family, according to a recently published survey by Mr. Wadhwa and his colleagues from Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.One significant draw is the prospect of bringing up children in what are seen as better school systems back home, says David Heenan, a visiting professor at Georgetown University. Many parents see a dumbing down of public education in the US, along with tattoos and pants below the hips, he says.When they leave, they often take their kids with them kids who are brighter than their parents, Mr. Heenan says. He notes that over the past 10 years, 60 to 65 percent of the top high school science research awards what he dubs junior Nobel prizes were children of first-generation immigrants or foreigners carrying H-1B worker visas.The impulse to return home is to be expected as economies overseas evolve. But some experts say they are concerned that with its current visa policies, the US is hurting itself. One key need, Wadhwa says, is to boost the number of H-1B visas made available and cut processing times.For all the angst, the Oak Ridge Institutes Finn points out that as long as the sheer number of foreign students earning advanced degrees here continues to increase at a brisk pace, the US can still benefit from their intellectual horsepower.And the US is still top of the heap in scientific clout, says James Hosek, who tracks global science and engineering trends at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, Calif. US scientists still publish twice as many of the most influential research papers as their European counterparts, and four times as many as a group of countries he calls the Asian 10, which includes China and India

And, Chinas on the brink of a destabilizing brain drain the plan thrashes their economy Watts 07 (China fears brain as its overseas students stay put) This shows that Chinese students overseaswanted to change their nationality Chinas economic rise is good theyre on the brink of collapse causes CCP instability and lashout also tubes the global economy, US primacy, and Sino relations Mead 09 (Only makes you Stronger) The greatest danger both to U.S.-China relationshappen if the growth stops Chinese lashout goes nuclear Epoch Times 04 Since the partys life isand gamble with their lives

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sourceinfo
Any further slowdown in Chinese growth will cause civil unrest and

economic chaos Kurlantzick 08 (How the global economic crisis could bring down the Chinese government) As growth slows, the banking sector could be hitfirst serious threat to the regime

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Key to Pharma no other country can solve Farrell 05 (Chinas looming talent shortage, to make the move from manufacturing to services, china must raise the quality of its university graduates) A shortage of world-class universitysolves its looming shortage of qualified labor Solves bioterrorism and disease spread uniquely solves small pox Bandow 03 (Demonizing drugmakers the political assault on the pharmaceutical indusry) Consider the federal governments recent approachagainst a host of current Leads to extinction Ochs