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Cautionary Statement
This presentation has been prepared by Antofagasta plc and consists of the slides for a written presentation concerning Antofagasta plc. By reviewing and/or attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. This presentation includes forward-looking statements that express expectations of future events or results. All statements based on future expectations rather than on historical facts are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and the company cannot give assurance that such statements will prove to be correct. Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Antofagasta plc will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share. Certain statistical and other information about Antofagasta plc included in this presentation is sourced from publicly available third party sources. Such information presents the views of those third parties and may not necessarily correspond to the views held by Antofagasta plc. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Antofagasta plc in any jurisdiction. Further it does not constitute a recommendation by Antofagasta plc or any other person to buy or sell shares in Antofagasta plc or any other securities.
Focused copper producer with high quality low-cost asset base in Chile Delivering on significant production growth
Additional low cost production offsetting industry cost pressures to keep costs stable Consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Major growth projects in existing core districts in Chile Extensive exploration programme for longer-term Chilean and international growth
Los Pelambres Esperanza El Tesoro Michilla Centinela district Los Pelambres district Antucoya Twin Metals Reko Diq Early-stage exploration Energy
( 22)
27 521 2 0
(3)
2010
El Tesoro (97)
Michilla (42)
Esperanza (90)
2011
El Tesoro (100)
Michilla (40)
Esperanza (170)
2012E
700%
197
35
Esperanza
144.9
76.5
114.1 53.3 72.4 59.1 65.3
80 70 60 50 40
Main ramp-up activities now completed During 2011 focus was on maximising general plant reliability and optimising the milling process
30 20
10 0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Current focus on testing of ore hardness and the capacity of the tailings thickeners
2012 forecasts:
160,000 175,000 tonnes copper (2011 90,000 tonnes) 240,000 260,000 ounces gold (2011 157,000 ounces) Net cash costs: 55 65 c/lb Reflects forecast plant throughput of 80,000 86,000 tonnes per day
Molybdenum Price
Average LME copper price in 2011 of 400 c/lb all time high in nominal terms
Copper achieved record high in Q1 2011, followed by price fall in Q4 and significant volatility Antofagastas average realised copper price in 2011 - 373 c/lb
o Reflected negative provisional pricing adjustments in H2
Fundamentals remain healthy with inventories still at low levels Analysts forecast a volatile copper price, highly dependent on macro economic factors
o 2012 consensus c. 380 c/lb
6.5
3.4
Cost C1 (cUS$/lb)
2010
2007
2008
EBITDA (US$m)
2009
Turnover (US$m)
Others
EBITDA/Turnover (%)
Acid cost
Sep-11
Energy
2011
ESP
Others
2012
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
MLP
MET
MIC
AMSA 2011
Track record of consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Low-cost base allows strong cash generation throughout the cycle Capital returns via combination of:
35%
35%
35%
100.0
51.0 14.0 9.4 2009 Special dividends 16.0 2010 Payout ratio
9.0 2008
Averaged overall payout ratio of 35% for number of years Total payout in June 2011 of US$1.1 billion
o Reflected return of surplus cash after completion of key growth projects
Growth Opportunities
Growth opportunities
Group exploration and evaluation expenditure (US$ m)
200.0
13.4
6.4
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(The above mineral resources relates only to the Groups subsidiaries and do not include amounts relating to the Groups joint venture at Reko Diq)
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Challenges for new projects Chiles mining project portfolio Forecast investment in mining projects c. US$80 billion over next 8 years Expected to increase production to 7.8 million tonnes by 2020 (2010 5.5 million tonnes) Challenges likely to include: Energy o 65% increase in current mining sector electricity requirements, requiring capital investment of c. US$8 billion Labour
o More than 50% increase in current operational labour force required by 2020 compared with 2012 levels
o By 2014 projects in construction will need 190,000 additional workers Water
12
Antucoya
13
Centinela District
(formerly the Sierra Gorda District)
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Centinela District
(formerly the Sierra Gorda District)
Telgrafo and Caracoles could each potentially support a 100ktpd plant comparable to Esperanza
o Potential for production from Telgrafo from 2017 o Caracoles longer lead-times
15
Total mineral resources of 5.8 billion tonnes @ 0.53% copper plus molybdenum and gold credits
o Existing 26 year mine plan includes ore reserves of 1.4 billion tonnes
Potential to more than double existing capacity Pre-feasibility study at a cost of just under US$100 million now in progress Key challenges likely to include water supply, community engagement and environmental issues
16
40% interest in Twin Metals project in Minnesota Incorporation of properties formerly held by Franconia Minerals Corp Pre-feasibility study initiated in October 2011 following completion of conceptual study
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Conclusion
Focused copper producer with high quality low-cost asset base in Chile Delivering on significant production growth Additional low cost production offsetting industry cost pressures to keep costs stable Consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Major growth projects in existing core districts in Chile
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26 - 29 February 2012
Overview
LUKSIC GROUP LSE-FREE FLOAT
65%
35%
FTSE 100 since March 2004 Market cap (22 February 2012): US$20.6bn
TRANSPORT
FCAB (Chile) FCA (Bolivia) Combined rail and road tonnages of approx. 8.3 million tons per year
MINING
WATER
20
Brief History
1888
1979
1996
1997
2000
2003
2011
2010
2009
2008
2006
21
Geographical Locations
Operations And Exploration
10
6 5 3
2 8 9
11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Chile: Operations, projects and exploration United Kingdom Registered office, London
Toronto Office
4
13 15
1
Peru Exploration USA Exploration Twin Metals: Agreement with Duluth Metals Ltd. Canada exploration Agreement with Riverside Resources USA Exploration Pyramid Agreement with Fullmetals Minerals Ltd.
14
10 8 9
Portugal Exploration Iberian Pyrite Belt: MoU with AVRUPA Spain Exploration La Zarza: Agreement with Ormonde Mining plc
Sweden Exploration Joint venture with Eurasian Minerals Turkey Exploration Agreement with Stratex International PLC
13 14
Namibia Exploration Agreement with Eiseb Exploration and Mining Ltd and Manica Minerals Ltd South Australia Exploration Punt Hill: Agreement with Monax Ltd. Western Australia: Sipa Resources Ltd..
11 12
Pakistan Project and 15 Exploration: Joint venture with Barrick Gold in Reko Diq
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Esperanza (170,000 tonnes copper and 250,000 ounces gold) El Tesoro (100,000 tonnes copper) Michilla (40,000 tonnes copper) Transport and Water divisions
Los Pelambres (390,000 tonnes copper, 11,000 tonnes moly and 28,000 ounces gold)
Antucoya Exploration in Sierra Gorda District Joint venture with New Gold (Ro Figueroa) Joint Venture with Codelco (Cumbres) Hornitos thermoelectrical power plant
Distrito Michilla
Proyecto Ro Figueroa
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Financial history
EBITDA (US$m) and EBITDA margin (%)
74% 61%
4,577
57%
60% 4,173
610
2,963
2,772
2,506
466
1,681
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sep-11
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sep-11
EBITDA (US$m)
Turnover (US$m)
EBITDA/Turnover (%)
2,919
35%
35%
35%
100.0
51.0 14.0 9.4 2009 Special dividends 16.0 2010 Payout ratio
2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep-11
9.0 2008
24
25
Esperanza
Los Pelambres
El Tesoro
Other
Esperanza US$200 million of new short-term borrowings Los Pelambres Regular repayments of term loans, partly offset by new finance leases
26
21.0%
27
**
* Estimated range of 160,000175,000 tonnes of copper ** Estimated range of 240,000260,000 ounces of gold
28
(*)
(**) (*)
(*) Represents mid-point of estimated range of 5565 cents per pound (**) Represents mid-point of estimated range of 190200 cents per pound
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Esperanza
Explosives & reagents, 3% Maintenance, 14%
Group
Shipping & Tolling charges, 16%
Labour, 7%
Maintenance, 8%
Energy, 13%
Other, 21%
Labour, 16%
Other, 15%
Fuel, 10%
El Tesoro
Labour, 12% Other, 21% Fuel, 6% Steel milling balls, 5% Services, 5%
Fuel, 7% Sulphuric acid, 25%
Labour, 16%
Energy, 13%
Michilla
Explosives & reagents, 3% Energy, 9%
Services, 18%
Other, 13%
Maintenance, 10%
Commercial, 2% Other, 21%
Services, 20%
30
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
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(US cents/pound)
2008
2009
2010
2011
359
373
Period end mark-to-market * (US$ million) Provisional pricing copper (1) Hedge instruments copper (2)
2008
2009
2010
2011
(1) Provisional pricing: both actual realisations and mark-to-market are reflected in the income statement. (2) Hedge instruments: only actual realisations and ineffective hedges are reflected through the income statement. Unrealised mark-to-market for effective hedges are reflected through reserves.
32
Open pit operation located in Chiles Coquimbo Region, producing copper and molybdenum concentrates since 2000 US$1 billion brownfield plant expansion completed during 2010
o Additional 90,000 tonnes annual copper production (first 15 years annual average)
Significant resource base could further enhance mine plan in the future
33
Michilla
o 2011 production of 41,600 tonnes, and cash costs of 213.3 c/lb o 2012 forecast production of 40,000 tonnes, and cash costs of 285 c/lb o Recategorization of reserves and engineering plan could extend the base case from 2012 to 2015 o Exploration plan to extend the mine life to 2018
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Tocopilla
El Abra
Conchi
Transport
Chuquicamata
Michilla Mejillones Interacid Terminal Sierra Gorda El Tesoro Esperanza Antofagasta Alto Norte Augusta Victoria Escondida Lomas Bayas Gaby El Salvador Calama
2011 total volumes - 8.3 million tons (rail volumes - 6.4 million tons; road volumes - 1.9 million tons) 2010 revenue - US$155 million 2010 EBITDA - US$60 million
Zaldivar
35
For 2012, market analysts forecast a volatile copper price highly dependent on the evolution and stability of the world economy. Market consensus for 2012 is for an average price around 380 cents/lb
36
Deficit market during 2011 justified mainly by the production constraints. Albeit global economic risks remain unsolved, long-term fundamentals are still strong with the concentrates market expected to be in deficit during the next years. During the first month of 2012, the spot market has been quiet due to reduced Chinese activity as well as shutdowns at the Pasar and Saganoseki smelters due to fires. Annual negotiations very slow with some settlements being reported by market analysts in the range 60/6 and 63.5/6.35. Japanese smelters maintain their position that the last settlement is the market benchmark and failed to reach a settlement with BHP with whom they have cancelled their contracts for 2012.
37
Molybdenum market
Supply & demand balance in surplus during 2011. Molybdenum price and market balance
o Significant production increase in NorthAmerica o Consumption growing at 4.4% worldwide o Low level of inventories
Molybdenum price trading down from US$17.9 per pound to US$12.7 per pound, with an annual average of US$15.5 per pound in 2011.
High marginal cost of production at primary mines limits the supply growth and provides a support to prices. Most of the large projects have (again) been delayed or postponed with limited additional supply in the short term. For 2012 market consensus is for an average price of US$15 within the range of US$13 to US$18 per pound.
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Gold market
Gold performed better than expected in 2011 due to strong investment demand and central bank purchases, little resolution on the Euro zone crisis, and low global interest rates. In early trading in 2012 it has traded back towards US$1,750. Demand for gold is supported by a diverse range of buyers from Indian and Chinese jewellers, electronics manufacturers in Asia, global dentistry and medicine sectors, to Central banks and retail investors. Jewellery demand continues to be strong, especially in India and China. Physical demand from those markets doubled each year since 2008. Demand for bars and coins remains robust, especially in Asia Many global central banks remain under allocated to gold and seek to diversify their USD reserves.
End-use gold consumption (tonnes)
Gold (US$/oz)
1,725 1,625
1,525
1.2
1.4 1.6
Gold (US$/oz)
Strong investor demand in recent months, with ETFs displaying net inflows. Futures and OTC markets are also very robust Continued weakening of US Dollar and Euro vs emerging currencies Low volatility compared to the worlds commodities benchmark, makes gold an attractive asset for long-term allocations in portfolios.
Gold demand
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Duluth Metals, the Groups partner, published an NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate consisting of 550 and 274 million tonnes of indicated and inferred resource, respectively, with a combined copper grade of approximately 0.6% and a combined copper equivalent grade of approximately 1.5%
40
Safety statistics
Definitions: LTIFR Number of accidents with lost time during the year per million hours worked. AIFR Number of accidents with and without lost time during the year per million hours worked. Chilean mining industry source Servicio Nacional de Geologa y Minera. Comparative figures for 2009 have been updated to reflect the full year; 2010 full year figures have not yet been released by Servicio Nacional de Geologa y Minera and therefore are not shown above.
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Antofagasta contacts
Tel: Fax
42
26 29 February 2012