You are on page 1of 43

26 29 February 2012

Cautionary Statement

This presentation has been prepared by Antofagasta plc and consists of the slides for a written presentation concerning Antofagasta plc. By reviewing and/or attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. This presentation includes forward-looking statements that express expectations of future events or results. All statements based on future expectations rather than on historical facts are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and the company cannot give assurance that such statements will prove to be correct. Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Antofagasta plc will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share. Certain statistical and other information about Antofagasta plc included in this presentation is sourced from publicly available third party sources. Such information presents the views of those third parties and may not necessarily correspond to the views held by Antofagasta plc. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Antofagasta plc in any jurisdiction. Further it does not constitute a recommendation by Antofagasta plc or any other person to buy or sell shares in Antofagasta plc or any other securities.

Our business and strategy

3. Growth beyond the Core Business

2. Organic & sustainable growth of the Core Business

Focused copper producer with high quality low-cost asset base in Chile Delivering on significant production growth

1. Our existing Core Business

Additional low cost production offsetting industry cost pressures to keep costs stable Consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Major growth projects in existing core districts in Chile Extensive exploration programme for longer-term Chilean and international growth

Los Pelambres Esperanza El Tesoro Michilla Centinela district Los Pelambres district Antucoya Twin Metals Reko Diq Early-stage exploration Energy

Our existing Core Business

Realising strong production growth

Copper production 2010 2012E (000 tonnes) 34%


90 641 3 80 700

( 22)
27 521 2 0

(3)

2010

Los Pelambres (412)

El Tesoro (97)

Michilla (42)

Esperanza (90)

2011

Los Pelambres (390)

El Tesoro (100)

Michilla (40)

Esperanza (170)

2012E

Molybdenum (000 tonnes)


25%
9 10 11

Gold (000' ounces)


280

700%
197

35

Esperanza

144.9

76.5
114.1 53.3 72.4 59.1 65.3

80 70 60 50 40

Main ramp-up activities now completed During 2011 focus was on maximising general plant reliability and optimising the milling process

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 27.1

30 20
10 0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Throughput (000 tpd)

Cash Cost (cents per pound)

Current focus on testing of ore hardness and the capacity of the tailings thickeners
2012 forecasts:
160,000 175,000 tonnes copper (2011 90,000 tonnes) 240,000 260,000 ounces gold (2011 157,000 ounces) Net cash costs: 55 65 c/lb Reflects forecast plant throughput of 80,000 86,000 tonnes per day

Pricing environment and outlook

LME Copper Price

London Gold Price

Molybdenum Price

Average LME copper price in 2011 of 400 c/lb all time high in nominal terms
Copper achieved record high in Q1 2011, followed by price fall in Q4 and significant volatility Antofagastas average realised copper price in 2011 - 373 c/lb
o Reflected negative provisional pricing adjustments in H2

Fundamentals remain healthy with inventories still at low levels Analysts forecast a volatile copper price, highly dependent on macro economic factors
o 2012 consensus c. 380 c/lb

Competitive and stable cost position


Weighted average cash cost including by-product credits 2010 2012E (c/lb)
13.1

6.5

3.4

3.2 5.0 23.3 3.4 4.1 4.8 9.2

Cost C1 (cUS$/lb)

2010
2007

EBITDA (US$m) and EBITDA margin (%)


400 300 200 100 0 0 -100

2008
EBITDA (US$m)

Esperanza onsite costs

2009
Turnover (US$m)

Others

Exchange Rate & Inflation effect


2010

EBITDA/Turnover (%)

Acid cost

Sep-11

Energy

By-product credits & Tolling charges

2011

ESP

Others

2011 copper cost curve (ranked by C1)

Pelambres decrease in grade

By-product credits & Tolling charges

Esperanza onsite costs

2012

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

MLP

MET

MIC

AMSA 2011

Consistently strong capital returns

Dividends per share (cents) and payout ratio


109%

Track record of consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Low-cost base allows strong cash generation throughout the cycle Capital returns via combination of:

35%

35%

35%
100.0

o Ordinary dividends progressively increased and sustainable throughout cycle


o Special dividends during periods of high commodity prices and high cash inflows

41.0 8.6 2007 Ordinary dividends

51.0 14.0 9.4 2009 Special dividends 16.0 2010 Payout ratio

9.0 2008

Averaged overall payout ratio of 35% for number of years Total payout in June 2011 of US$1.1 billion
o Reflected return of surplus cash after completion of key growth projects

Growth Opportunities

Growth opportunities
Group exploration and evaluation expenditure (US$ m)
200.0

Mineral Resources (including ore reserves) (billion tonnes)


9.2

13.4

99.0 67.1 54.9


4.4
3.2

6.4

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(The above mineral resources relates only to the Groups subsidiaries and do not include amounts relating to the Groups joint venture at Reko Diq)

Indicative project timeline

11

Challenges for new projects Chiles mining project portfolio Forecast investment in mining projects c. US$80 billion over next 8 years Expected to increase production to 7.8 million tonnes by 2020 (2010 5.5 million tonnes) Challenges likely to include: Energy o 65% increase in current mining sector electricity requirements, requiring capital investment of c. US$8 billion Labour

o More than 50% increase in current operational labour force required by 2020 compared with 2012 levels
o By 2014 projects in construction will need 190,000 additional workers Water

o Expect general industry move towards use of sea water

12

Antucoya

Board approval for project in December 2011


Construction is expected between 2012 and 2013 with first production in the course of 2014 SX-EW operation with an annual cathode production of approximately 80,000 tonnes Estimated mine life of over 20 years Environmental approvals received June 2011 MoU signed in December 2011 with Marubeni whereby they will become a 30% partner for US$350 million

13

Centinela District
(formerly the Sierra Gorda District)

14

Centinela District
(formerly the Sierra Gorda District)

Feasibility study for Telgrafo and Caracoles in progress


o US$109 million expenditure programme approved in September 2011 o Study expected to be completed in H1 2013

Telgrafo and Caracoles could each potentially support a 100ktpd plant comparable to Esperanza
o Potential for production from Telgrafo from 2017 o Caracoles longer lead-times

Continuing exploration and drilling programme


o Highly prospective area with only a fraction of the potential fully defined to date

15

Los Pelambres District

Total mineral resources of 5.8 billion tonnes @ 0.53% copper plus molybdenum and gold credits
o Existing 26 year mine plan includes ore reserves of 1.4 billion tonnes

Potential to more than double existing capacity Pre-feasibility study at a cost of just under US$100 million now in progress Key challenges likely to include water supply, community engagement and environmental issues

16

Potential development prospects outside Chile

Twin Metals project

Reko Diq copper-gold project


Joint venture with Barrick Gold Corporation Arbitration proceedings initiated following rejection of mining lease application in November 2011

Early stage earn-in agreements


Long-term optionality through earn-in agreements with junior mining companies Earn-ins in place in the Americas, Europe, Africa and Australia

40% interest in Twin Metals project in Minnesota Incorporation of properties formerly held by Franconia Minerals Corp Pre-feasibility study initiated in October 2011 following completion of conceptual study

17

Conclusion

Focused copper producer with high quality low-cost asset base in Chile Delivering on significant production growth Additional low cost production offsetting industry cost pressures to keep costs stable Consistently strong capital returns to shareholders Major growth projects in existing core districts in Chile

Exploration programme for longer-term Chilean and international growth

18

26 - 29 February 2012

Overview
LUKSIC GROUP LSE-FREE FLOAT

65%

35%
FTSE 100 since March 2004 Market cap (22 February 2012): US$20.6bn

TRANSPORT
FCAB (Chile) FCA (Bolivia) Combined rail and road tonnages of approx. 8.3 million tons per year

MINING

WATER

ExplorationandevaluationstudiesinChile,theUnitedStatesand PakistanEarn-inagreements in Europe, Africa, theAmericas andAustralia

(Volumes represent 2012 forecasts)

20

Brief History

1888

1979

1996

1997

2000

2003

2011

2010

2009

2008

2006

21

Geographical Locations
Operations And Exploration

10

6 5 3

2 8 9
11 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Chile: Operations, projects and exploration United Kingdom Registered office, London
Toronto Office

4
13 15

1
Peru Exploration USA Exploration Twin Metals: Agreement with Duluth Metals Ltd. Canada exploration Agreement with Riverside Resources USA Exploration Pyramid Agreement with Fullmetals Minerals Ltd.

14

10 8 9
Portugal Exploration Iberian Pyrite Belt: MoU with AVRUPA Spain Exploration La Zarza: Agreement with Ormonde Mining plc

Sweden Exploration Joint venture with Eurasian Minerals Turkey Exploration Agreement with Stratex International PLC

13 14

Namibia Exploration Agreement with Eiseb Exploration and Mining Ltd and Manica Minerals Ltd South Australia Exploration Punt Hill: Agreement with Monax Ltd. Western Australia: Sipa Resources Ltd..

11 12

Pakistan Project and 15 Exploration: Joint venture with Barrick Gold in Reko Diq

22

Geographical locations Chile


Chile: Operations Chile: Projects and Exploration
Energa Andina S.A., joint venture with ENAP for geothermal opportunities

Esperanza (170,000 tonnes copper and 250,000 ounces gold) El Tesoro (100,000 tonnes copper) Michilla (40,000 tonnes copper) Transport and Water divisions

Mulpun project, underground coal gasification

Los Pelambres (390,000 tonnes copper, 11,000 tonnes moly and 28,000 ounces gold)

Antucoya Exploration in Sierra Gorda District Joint venture with New Gold (Ro Figueroa) Joint Venture with Codelco (Cumbres) Hornitos thermoelectrical power plant

Distrito Michilla

Distrito Sierra Gorda

Proyecto Ro Figueroa

(Volumes represent 2012 forecasts)

Distrito Los Pelambres

23

Financial history
EBITDA (US$m) and EBITDA margin (%)

Capital expenditure (US$m)


1,335 1,190 1,386

74% 61%
4,577

56% 3,827 3,373 2,824 1,900

57%

60% 4,173
610

2,963

2,772

2,506

466

1,681

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sep-11

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sep-11

EBITDA (US$m)

Turnover (US$m)

EBITDA/Turnover (%)

Earnings and dividends per share (cents)


109%

Net cash position (US$ million)

2,919

35%

35%

35%
100.0

1,947 1,596 1,345 851

41.0 8.6 2007 Ordinary dividends

51.0 14.0 9.4 2009 Special dividends 16.0 2010 Payout ratio
2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep-11

9.0 2008

24

Cash flow 2011 H1 (US$ million)

Net cash position Gross basis (US$ million)

Net cash position Attributable basis (US$ million)

25

Debt analysis 2011 H1 (US$m)

Esperanza

Los Pelambres

El Tesoro

Other

Esperanza US$200 million of new short-term borrowings Los Pelambres Regular repayments of term loans, partly offset by new finance leases

26

Effective tax rate 2011 H1


30.7%

21.0%

Corporate tax (deferred and current) Withholding tax

Royalty Exchange rate

27

Production and realised prices analysis 2011


Copper, molybdenum and gold production

Realised copper (c/lb), molybdenum (US$/lb) & gold price (oz/lb)

**

* Estimated range of 160,000175,000 tonnes of copper ** Estimated range of 240,000260,000 ounces of gold

28

Cash cost (c/lb)

Cash cost analysis 2011

(*)

Los Pelambres cash cost (c/lb)

Esperanza cash cost (c/lb)

(**) (*)

(*) Represents mid-point of estimated range of 5565 cents per pound (**) Represents mid-point of estimated range of 190200 cents per pound

29

Cash operating cost 2011


Los Pelambres
Tolling charges, 14% Energy, 9%

Esperanza
Explosives & reagents, 3% Maintenance, 14%

Energy, 20% Tolling charges, 7% Explosives & reagents, 5%

Group
Shipping & Tolling charges, 16%

Labour, 7%

Fuel, 4% Steel milling balls, 6%

Maintenance, 8%

Energy, 13%

Other, 21%

Sulphuric acid, 6% Explosives & reagents, 4% Maintenance, 12%


Services, 14% Shipping , 8%

Labour, 16%

Other, 15%

Fuel, 10%

El Tesoro
Labour, 12% Other, 21% Fuel, 6% Steel milling balls, 5% Services, 5%
Fuel, 7% Sulphuric acid, 25%
Labour, 16%

Shipping , 5% Steel milling balls, 6% Services, 8%

Explosives & reagents, 3% Labour, 11%

Energy, 13%

Michilla
Explosives & reagents, 3% Energy, 9%

Sulphuric acid, 12%

Services, 18%

Purchased ore, 17%

Other, 13%

Maintenance, 10%
Commercial, 2% Other, 21%

Services, 20%

30

Market cost recent trends


Exchange rate (CLP/USD) Inverted axis WTI oil price (US$/barrel

2011 Av: 95 2010 Av: 79

2011 Av: 483 2010 Av: 510

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Monthly prices of sulphuric acid (US$/tonnes CIF Mejillones)

Chilean central and northern grid spot energy prices (US$cents/MWh)

2011 Av: 118 2010 CG Av: 135 2010 Av Av: 76

2011 CG Av: 182

2010 NG Av: 121 2011 NG Av: 95

Source: Chilean Custom only imports

Source: SIC & SING

31

Realised prices and mark-to-market


Copper price (US$ cents)

(US cents/pound)

2008

2009

2010

2011

400 342 315 267 234 271


Effects on results (US$ million) Provisional pricing copper (1) Realised hedging gains (losses) copper (2) 2008 (582.0) 30.0 2009 423.2 (65.8) 2010 303.5 (81.4) 2011 (286.2) (15.1)

359

373

Period end mark-to-market * (US$ million) Provisional pricing copper (1) Hedge instruments copper (2)

31 Dec 2008 (258.2) 51.7

31 Dec 2009 64.5 (77.8)

31 Dec 2010 129.8 (78.3)

31 Dec 2011 (14.1) 58.9

2008

2009

2010

2011

* Pre-tax and minorities

LME copper price

Realised copper price

(1) Provisional pricing: both actual realisations and mark-to-market are reflected in the income statement. (2) Hedge instruments: only actual realisations and ineffective hedges are reflected through the income statement. Unrealised mark-to-market for effective hedges are reflected through reserves.

32

Operations and projects Los Pelambres

Open pit operation located in Chiles Coquimbo Region, producing copper and molybdenum concentrates since 2000 US$1 billion brownfield plant expansion completed during 2010
o Additional 90,000 tonnes annual copper production (first 15 years annual average)

2011 production and costs


o Copper 411,800 tonnes o Molybdenum - 9,900 tonnes o Net cash costs 78.3 c/lb pre-credit costs 128.0 c/lb

2012 forecast production and costs


o Copper 390,000 tonnes

o Molybdenum 11,000 tonnes


o Net cash costs 90.0 c/lb pre-credit costs 136.6 c/lb

Significant resource base could further enhance mine plan in the future

33

Operations and projects El Tesoro and Michilla


SX-EW operations in Chiles Antofagasta Region producing copper cathodes El Tesoro
o 2011 production of 97,100 tonnes, and cash costs of 171.6 c/lb o 2012 forecast production of 100,000 tonnes, and cash costs of 160 c/lb o Ore feed from Tesoro Central, Tesoro North-East and Run-ofMine leaching o Mirador oxides being processed from H2 2011, increasing production to approximately 100,000 tonnes per annum between 2012 and 2014, reducing cash costs and extending the life of El Tesoros operation to 2022

Michilla
o 2011 production of 41,600 tonnes, and cash costs of 213.3 c/lb o 2012 forecast production of 40,000 tonnes, and cash costs of 285 c/lb o Recategorization of reserves and engineering plan could extend the base case from 2012 to 2015 o Exploration plan to extend the mine life to 2018

34

Chiles Antofagasta Region

Transport and Water businesses

Tocopilla

El Abra

Conchi

Transport
Chuquicamata
Michilla Mejillones Interacid Terminal Sierra Gorda El Tesoro Esperanza Antofagasta Alto Norte Augusta Victoria Escondida Lomas Bayas Gaby El Salvador Calama

2011 total volumes - 8.3 million tons (rail volumes - 6.4 million tons; road volumes - 1.9 million tons) 2010 revenue - US$155 million 2010 EBITDA - US$60 million

Zaldivar

Water 2011 water volumes - 48.3 million m3


Rail station City / port Mine Owned Mine Rail Network

2010 revenue - US$92 million 2010 EBITDA - US$67 million

35

Refined copper market


During 2011, the annual average for copper was 400 c/lb, historically the highest in nominal terms. The price moved from a record high in Q1 2011 down to 343 c/lb in late December with considerable volatility, particularly in Q4. The solid market outlook seen in the first months of 2011 was followed by a weaker second half due to the turbulence in the world economic scenario.
o Global consumption slowing down o Fundamentals remain healthy supporting the price with inventories falling.

Copper price and exchange inventories

For 2012, market analysts forecast a volatile copper price highly dependent on the evolution and stability of the world economy. Market consensus for 2012 is for an average price around 380 cents/lb
36

Copper concentrates market

Deficit market during 2011 justified mainly by the production constraints. Albeit global economic risks remain unsolved, long-term fundamentals are still strong with the concentrates market expected to be in deficit during the next years. During the first month of 2012, the spot market has been quiet due to reduced Chinese activity as well as shutdowns at the Pasar and Saganoseki smelters due to fires. Annual negotiations very slow with some settlements being reported by market analysts in the range 60/6 and 63.5/6.35. Japanese smelters maintain their position that the last settlement is the market benchmark and failed to reach a settlement with BHP with whom they have cancelled their contracts for 2012.

Market balance and terms

37

Molybdenum market
Supply & demand balance in surplus during 2011. Molybdenum price and market balance
o Significant production increase in NorthAmerica o Consumption growing at 4.4% worldwide o Low level of inventories

Molybdenum price trading down from US$17.9 per pound to US$12.7 per pound, with an annual average of US$15.5 per pound in 2011.
High marginal cost of production at primary mines limits the supply growth and provides a support to prices. Most of the large projects have (again) been delayed or postponed with limited additional supply in the short term. For 2012 market consensus is for an average price of US$15 within the range of US$13 to US$18 per pound.
38

Gold market

Gold performed better than expected in 2011 due to strong investment demand and central bank purchases, little resolution on the Euro zone crisis, and low global interest rates. In early trading in 2012 it has traded back towards US$1,750. Demand for gold is supported by a diverse range of buyers from Indian and Chinese jewellers, electronics manufacturers in Asia, global dentistry and medicine sectors, to Central banks and retail investors. Jewellery demand continues to be strong, especially in India and China. Physical demand from those markets doubled each year since 2008. Demand for bars and coins remains robust, especially in Asia Many global central banks remain under allocated to gold and seek to diversify their USD reserves.
End-use gold consumption (tonnes)

Gold price and 5-year real rates


1,925 1,825 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1,425 1,325
US 10 year TIPS yield

Gold (US$/oz)

1,725 1,625

1,525

1.2
1.4 1.6

Gold (US$/oz)

US 10 year TIPS yield

Strong investor demand in recent months, with ETFs displaying net inflows. Futures and OTC markets are also very robust Continued weakening of US Dollar and Euro vs emerging currencies Low volatility compared to the worlds commodities benchmark, makes gold an attractive asset for long-term allocations in portfolios.

Gold demand
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Jewellery Total bar & coin demand

Industrial & dental ETF & similar products

39

Reserves and resources (at 31 December 2010)

Duluth Metals, the Groups partner, published an NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate consisting of 550 and 274 million tonnes of indicated and inferred resource, respectively, with a combined copper grade of approximately 0.6% and a combined copper equivalent grade of approximately 1.5%

40

Safety statistics

Definitions: LTIFR Number of accidents with lost time during the year per million hours worked. AIFR Number of accidents with and without lost time during the year per million hours worked. Chilean mining industry source Servicio Nacional de Geologa y Minera. Comparative figures for 2009 have been updated to reflect the full year; 2010 full year figures have not yet been released by Servicio Nacional de Geologa y Minera and therefore are not shown above.

41

Antofagasta contacts

London (Antofagasta plc)


doconor@antofagasta.co.uk hbarma@antofagasta.co.uk pholden@antofagasta.co.uk

Santiago de Chile (Antofagasta Minerals S.A.)


arivera@aminerals.cl etagle@aminerals.cl lbravo@aminerals.cl

Tel: (+44-20) 7808-0988 Fax: (+44-20) 7808-0966

Tel: Fax

42

26 29 February 2012

You might also like