EXERCISE 3: TRANSFORMATION

BASE YEAR CHARCOAL PRODUCTION Charcoal is produced from firewood. Charcoal is made with traditional earth mounds. Conversion efficiency of traditional earth mounds is 20%. ENERGY GENERATION Power plants: Hydro: 1,000 MW Coal steam: 2,500 MW Oil Combustion Turbine: 2,000 MW Total generation in 2000: 16,200 GWhr; 34% hydro, 44% coal steam, rest from oil combustion turbine. OIL REFINING Base Year Production: 4 million tonnes of crude oil. Production capacity: 6 million tonnes of crude oil. Refinery efficiency: 97.0%. Refinery output: Gasoline, Aviation gas, Kerosene/jet fuel, diesel, residual/fuel oil, LPG and lubricants. COAL MINING Base year production: 4.7 million tonnes of coal. Mining capacity: 6 million tonnes of coal. Coal mining efficiency: 80%

REFERENCE SCENARIO CHAROCAL PRODUCTION Brick Beehive kilns imported from Thailand. Thailand kilns have a conversion efficiency of 47%. Share of charcoal production of Thailand kilns to be 5% by 2010 and 20% by 2030. COAL MINING Coal mining capacity increases to 10 million tonnes by 2000, 14 million tonnes by 2010 and 23 million tonnes by 2030.

EXERCISE FIVE: A TRANSPORT STUDY

BASE YEAR Stock and sales 6 million cars in stock 4 million SUVs in stock 800,000 cars sold 500,000 SUVs sold Survival profile decreases exponentially by a constant of 0.02 Stock vintage profile Age (years) % of stock 0 0.00 1 11.26 2 11.04 3 10.60 4 9.99 5 9.22 6 8.34 7 7.40 8 6.43 9 5.48 10 4.58 11 3.75 12 3.01 13 2.37 14 1.82 15 1.38 16 1.02 17 0.74 18 0.53 19 0.37 20 0.25 21 0.17 22 0.27 0.05% of base year stock of cars is Hybrid vehicles, rest were Internal Combustion Engines. 0.5% of cars sold in base year are Hybrid vehicles, rest was Internal Combustion Engines. All SUVs are Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. Mileage/Fuel Economy All vehicle technologies have a mileage of 15,000 in the base year. Degradation profile decreases exponentially by a constant of 0.002 Fuel economy (miles per gallon) in base year is as follows: Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE Cars 25 28 SUVs 15 17 Fuel economy remains constant.

Gasoline hybrid 40 23

Internal Combustion Engines (Cars & SUVs) 2% of base year stock is diesel vehicles, rest are gasoline vehicles 2% of base year sales are diesel vehicles, remainder is gasoline vehicles Emission Factors All technologies emit the greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and three pollutants contributing to local air pollution: Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Carbon Monoxide (CO), and particulate matter of size less than 10 microns (PM10). Technology Pollutant Units Gasoline CO2 lbs/MMBTU CO g/veh-mile NOx g/veh-mile PM10 g/veh-mile Diesel CO2 lbs/MMBTU CO g/veh-mile NOx g/veh-mile PM10 g/veh-mile 1990 159.50 6.20 0.44 0.4 161.00 1.05 0.60 1.50 1995 5.30 0.35 0.30 0.54 0.27 1.50 2004 3.50 0.04 0.20 0.20 0.08 0.50 2050 1.70 0.03 0.05

0.20

Pollutant CO2 CO NOx PM10

Degradation profiles Degradation Constant Exponential with factor 0.006 Exponential with factor 0.008 Exponential with factor 0.005

REFERENCE SCENARIO 1 (BUSINESS AS USUAL) SUV sales increases to 1.2 million vehicles by 2020.

Reference Scenario 2 (Improved Fuel Economy) Internal combustion engines (gasoline and diesel) fuel economy increases by 5% in 2005, 10% in 2010 and 20% in 2020 (relative to base year fuel economy). Reference Scenario 3 (Hybrid) Hybrid vehicles increase sales by 50% by 2020. Hybrid gasoline cars reach a fuel economy of 60 MPG by 2020. Hybrid SUVs reach a fuel economy of 35 MPG by 2020. Reference Scenario 4 (Diesel) Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles sales increase by 30%. Reference Scenario 5 (Tailpipe Standard) New Reg Year sets to 2010. Reference Scenario 6 (Sales) Car sales increase by 500,000. SUV sales decrease by 500,000.