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Source: FEWS NET
www.fews.net/zambia
ZAMBIA Food Security Update October 2008
Food security overview
Generally the food security situation in the country is worrying as staple food prices continue climbing and in some cases
are significantly above the recent five‐year average and are therefore impacting negatively on poorer households. As the
lean season approaches, starting in November, and more households in the rural areas depend on markets as their own
stocks run out, they face very high prices. In Southern Province, the problem is twofold: first, the local supply of maize is
low due to losses during last season’s floods/water logging and markets have not been able to rectify the balance due to
relatively low supplies elsewhere in the country, and second, the ban on livestock movement out of the province (save for
breeding stocks) is already having a negative impact on household income in some areas, such as Sinazongwe district.
There, cattle prices have dropped by almost half as the market for livestock becomes limited, grain becomes scarce, and
farmers lose their ability to negotiate for better prices due to desperation. This situation will prevail in many more areas as
the lean season progresses between November and February. There is a need for the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) to release
adequate maize on the market to increase supply and therefore reduce the high rate of prices increases in the interest of
consumers.
Meanwhile, the response to the non‐food assistance appeal, including agricultural input support, following the action plan
resulting from the July VAC assessment has generally been inadequate. On the relief side, although food has been available
in country, resources for purchasing have been inadequate. Donor assistance has mostly been in the form of logistical
support, since the government had indicated that it had enough food reserves in country with the FRA when the relief
program began. However the FRA stocks have to be paid for and the Government of Zambia (GoZ) has not released
adequate funds to enable the Disaster Management Unit to purchase adequate grain from FRA. As of the end of October,
WFP and the government held about two to three months of relief supply, and most of this is being targeted to Southern
and Western provinces, where the impacts of last season’s floods and water logging were more widespread than elsewhere
in the country.
Markets and trade
Maize prices have continued the upward trend that started earlier than usual, partly due to the reduced production last
season. Comparatively, maize prices have increased at a faster rate in districts of southern Zambia, particularly Southern
Province, than those in the northern half (figure 2). In addition, maize prices in Southern Province are already significantly
above the five‐year average, a clear indication of low market supply. Field information from a few districts in areas under
monitoring also supports this conclusion. Reports coming from the field indicated that maize in most cases was not readily
available in some rural districts, especially those in the south.
With the FRA releasing maize on the market, there is need for them to make available adequate maize in rural districts and
not restrict the sales to the large millers concentrated in the urban areas. In the absence of this, there will be a significant
additional population in need of food assistance as a result of staple food scarcity in view of the approaching peak lean
season. In the urban areas, where most households primarily rely on purchased staple food (mostly maize meal),
consumers are facing prices above the recent five‐year average (figure 3). In addition, meal prices are increasing at a fast
rate. The government will be issuing maize import permits to the private sector up to a total of 50,000 MT initially, and
then review the quantity thereafter, based on market signals, in order to avoid over importation of the commodity in the
interest of producers. There is a need to quickly make firm import plans and not wait until a grain shortage hits the market
by early next year. This will also reduce speculation, which is already setting in as retailers have recently increased prices of
maize meal to abnormal levels. In the event that FRA is directed to import maize, the GoZ needs to make it very clear when
this importation will take place and level of subsidy if any. In the absence of this, private sector importation will be
discouraged and it will create uncertainty for farmers who planted early maize in October hoping to sell in March at
favorable prices.
Figure 2. Real retail maize prices from selected public markets, compared with previous years and the 5-year average
Source: FEWSNET/CSO
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
June
Jan
Feb
March
June
Jan
Feb
March
June
Jan
Feb
March
June
Jan
Feb
March
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
May
July
Nov
Dec
May
July
Nov
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May
July
Nov
Dec
May
July
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Sept
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April
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Aug
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Source: FEWSNET/CSO
With the price of staple food and other Figure 4. Inflation trend from January 2007 – October 2008
main foods increasing so drastically,
the rate of inflation is on an upward
swing. Comparatively, food inflation
has had a stronger influence on the
level of the overall inflation than non‐
food inflation (figure 4).
The volume of maize trade has
generally been much lower this season
with respect to the past two seasons.
For formal trade, the export ban which
was imposed in the early part of the
year is still in force, while imports are
still subject to issuance of import
Source of data: CSO
permits by the government.
While Zambia faces low maize supply, and consequently prices continue rising steadily, informal imports from neighboring
countries are still relatively low. Information from border monitors indicates a slower than usual grain trade that has partly
been attributed to the prevailing maize export bans in Malawi and Tanzania, which are normally the major sources of
informally traded maize during Zambia’s deficit years.
The monitored informal exports to Zambia’s major market in DRC have significantly reduced in the midst of the prevailing
maize and meal export ban and reduced supply in country. Exports have dropped from the high levels of 1,869 MT in
January to a mere 241 MT in October marking an 87 percent decline. With respect to the beginning of the current
marketing season in May, exports have dropped by 50 percent. Additional information from border monitors suggests that
there has been an increase in informal exports of maize grain and meal through unusual routes to the DRC. This is a porous
border and therefore only some of the exports are being captured in the monitoring system.
Seasonal progress
Following the release of the favorable rainfall forecast for the 2008/09 agricultural season by the Meteorological
Department, farmers are expected to plant on time. Indications are that Zambia is likely to receive normal rainfall during
the first part of the season, except for the extreme north east (Isoka, Nakonde, Mbala, and Chama), where rainfall may be
normal to below normal. During the second half of the season, covering January to March 2009, the country is likely to
receive normal to above‐normal rainfall, with a chance of flash floods in places. This forecast is very similar to that of the
last season, which was characterized by excessive rains that led to flooding in southern Zambia during the December‐
January period. In view of this, there is need to closely monitor the season, especially the December to February period,
when flooding normally occurs. It is also important for farmers to plant early. Late‐planted crops normally tend to be more
adversely affected at that time than crops planted early or on time, and most below‐normal production seasons have been
characterized by late planting.
Source : Department of Meteorology
Land preparation and planting has started in different parts of the country. The rainy season was expected to start in the
second dekad of November in southern parts of the country. However, in the extreme northwestern areas, where that
start of season is in late October, the onset is at least a dekad late. Generally, inputs are adequately available on the
market; however, there are indications that soybean seed may be in short supply this season.
It is too early to give indications of intended planting area, especially for maize, in view of the substantial increase in the
price of inputs, particularly fertilizer prices, which more than doubled this season, while the increase in seed prices will
likely result in increased use by small scale farmers of recycled seed, which will compromise yields.