Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc.

000, 000000 (0000)

Printed 9 April 2012

A (MN L TEX style le v2.2)

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

H. Desmond
St. Johns College, Oxford University, Oxford, OX1 3JP, UK 9 April 2012

arXiv:1204.1497v1 [astro-ph.CO] 6 Apr 2012

ABSTRACT

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation (TFR) is a tight relationship observed between baryonic mass and rotational velocity in spiral galaxies. Providing a theoretical basis for the TFR in the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm has proved problematic: simple calculations suggest too low a slope and too high a scatter. This paper aims to develop a rigorous prediction for the relation in the context of CDM by accounting for all relevant TFR-independent eects observed in numerical simulations of dark matter haloes, including their expected scatter. It is demonstrated that consistent treatment of these eects goes a large way towards reconciling the CDM prediction with the data; the normalisation becomes almost perfect, athough the slope remains somewhat too low. The predicted scatter is indeed too large, but may be reduced to near that of the data by accouting for observational selection eects. Key words: galaxies: fundamental parameters - galaxies: haloes - galaxies: spiral - dark matter.

1 1.1

INTRODUCTION The na CDM prediction ve

The Tully-Fisher Relation is one of the tightest relations in galactic astronomy (McGaugh 2012b), yet its theoretical foundations remain poorly developed. The canonical approach towards deriving the relation adopts the CDM model of cosmology, in which the universe is at and consists (by mass) of 4.6 per cent baryons, 23 per cent cold dark matter, and 73 per cent dark energy (Komatsu et al. 2009). In this paradigm, galaxies form through the gravitational amplication of initial seed density perturbations generated during ination, with higher-mass objects forming through the merger of smaller ones (see e.g. Baugh 2006). A simple analytical model for galaxy formation is the spherical collapse model, which assumes proto-galactic density perturbations to be spherically symmetric and

uses the equations of motion of general relativity to compute their evolution. Perturbations initially expand with the universe but over time are slowed by self-gravity and eventually begin to recollapse. However, at some stage dissipative forces halt the infall of material through the conversion of kinetic energy into thermal energy (see e.g. Peacock 2002). Although the exact details are not well-dened in the model, collapse is expected to cease roughly when virial equilibrium is attained (that is, V = 2K, where V is a galaxys potential energy and K its kinetic energy). The perturbation then becomes self-bound and separates from the Hubble ow. At this stage, the galaxy is a spherical, homogeneous mixture of baryons and dark matter, with density found by numerical simulation to conform to the celebrated NFW prole (Navarro et al. 1996): (r) = crit
r (1 rs

0 +

r 2, ) rs

(1)

E-mail: harryd2@stanford.edu From September 2012: Physics Department, Stanford University, CA 94305-4060, USA c 0000 RAS

with rs the scale-length and 0 a characteristic overdensity. 0 may be written in terms of the concentration, c = Rvir (Mo et al. 1998): rs

2
0 =

H. Desmond
c3 3 ln(1 + c)
c 1+c

(2)

is the mean density of the galaxy, at the time of virialisation, in multiples of the critical density of the universe, crit . In the spherical collapse model, equals 178 (Peacock 2002). It is, however, far from clear that this overdensity factor should describe nascent galaxies accurately: the model contains no rigorous argument for why collapse should cease at exactly V = 2K, and furthermore is likely to be invalidated in practice by aspherical inhomogeneities. All we can say with certainty, therefore, is that the overdensity will be of the order a few hundred at the epoch of galaxy formation. To promote compatibility with the majority of studies in the literature (e.g. Mo et al. 1998; Zhao et al. 2009), will hereafter be equated to 200. The cosmogony described above can be used to predict the Tully-Fisher Relation. Taking a typical galaxy to be virialised up to a radius Rvir (and taking this to be the eective extent of the galaxy), we dene the virial mass: 4 3 Mvir = crit Rvir . (3) 3 We now dene a characteristic velocity dispersion for the galaxy (the virial velocity, Vvir ) by balancing gravitational and centrifugal forces at the virial radius Rvir :
2 Vvir GMvir . = 2 Rvir Rvir

argued that these will inevitably make the predicted scatter irreparably larger than that in the data (McGaugh 2012b). The basic prediction encapsulated in Eq. 5 is a necessary consequence of hierarchical galaxy formation. Thus its failure to make contact with the high slope and low scatter of the observed TFR casts doubt on the CDM paradigm itself, the lynchpin of modern cosmology. The problem is made even more acute by the existence of an alternative explanation for the TFR, Modied Newtonian Dynamics (MOND). In MOND, Newtons Second Law holds only in the limit of high acceleration, and for a a0 1010 m s2 (e.g. the rotational motions of spiral galaxies), force becomes proportional to acceleration squared (Milgrom 1983): F = GMbar 1 = r2 a0
4 Vrot . Ga0 2 Vrot r 2

Mbar =

(6)

(4)
2 3H0 , 8G

Eliminating Rvir , and using crit = relation between Mvir and Vvir : Mvir = ( 1 3 ) 2 (GH0 )1 Vvir . 2

we establish the

This TFR is the green line in Fig. 1 and provides an almost perfect t to the data. In this framework, the TFR is a direct consequence of the eective force law (and therefore has no intrinsic scatter), and it is explained in terms of baryons alone. Thus the success of MOND calls into question the very existence of dark matter, and suggests a cosmogony far removed from that currently prevailing in the scientic community (e.g. see Felten 1984 for a discussion of MONDian cosmology). Since both MOND and CDM make predictions for the TFR, it can in principle be used to distinguish between them. 1.2 Three additional eects, and their treatment in the literature

(5)

However, Mvir and Vvir cannot be measured directly: they are theoretical quantities pertaining to the putative dark matter halo. To derive the observed Tully-Fisher Relation (TFR), we require a prescription for converting virial mass to baryonic mass, and virial velocity to disc rotational velocity. The simplest is to assume a universal ratio of baryonic to dark matter, and proportionality of the two velocities. Taking Mbar = fb Mvir (where fb 0.17 is the cosmic baryon fraction; Komatsu et al. 2009) and Vrot = Vvir , we obtain the TFR described by the blue line in Fig. 1 (p. 5). The agreement with the data is dreadful: the slope of the theoretical relation is too low and the intercept is too high. This is not the full extent of CDMs problems. It is evident from Fig. 1 that the data points show low scatter relative to their error bars, provoking claims (e.g. McGaugh 2012a) that all deviations from a power-law TFR can be explained by observational uncertainties alone. This would suggest a theoretical relation with zero intrinsic scatter, yet several factors (described in detail in Section 3.3) would be expected to cause non-zero scatter in the hierarchical galaxy formation scenario. McGaugh has

The failure of Eq. 5 is not a death-blow to Cold Dark Matter. Three important eects, expected on theoretical grounds, are not taken into account in the above discussion: (i) In deriving the na CDM line of Fig. 1, galaxve ies rotational and virial velocities were equated. This is unlikely to be valid in practice. A better approximation is to use the density prole of a galaxy to compute the rotation curve, and to take the velocity at some characteristic point on this as the TFRs independent variable. The maximum rotation velocity will be used for this purpose.1 For the NFW prole (Eqs. 1 and 2), it is found that the ratio of the maximum rotational velocity to the
1

There is some debate in the literature as to which is the optimum velocity to use, and dierent studies adopt dierent conventions. The observations of McGaugh (2012b) use the velocity of the at part of a galaxys rotation curve, which is expected to be a good proxy for the maximum velocity (McGaugh 2012b, p. 14). Selection eects arising from this issue will be explored in Section 3.4. c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

virial velocity depends on the concentration, which is itself a function of virial mass (Bullock et al. 2001; Gao et al. 2008; Zhao et al. 2009). After changing independent variable from virial velocity to maximum rotation velocity, this mass-concentration (mc) relation is therefore expected to change the TFRs slope. (ii) So far, no mention has been made of the collapse of the baryons in galaxies into discs, yet both variables in the TFR are properties of these discs. In CDM, the particles in a newly-virialised galaxy acquire angular momentum through the action of cosmological torques (Peebles 1969). Dissipative processes cause the baryons to lose energy, and hence fall towards the centre, and their rotation causes them to form a attened disc. This modies the rotation curve of the galaxy. Although the distribution of dissipationless dark matter remains sphericallysymmetric, it is aected by baryonic collapse in a process known as adiabatic contraction. The shells that make up the dark halo are pulled gravitationally towards the disc, with their nal positions xed by conservation of specic angular momentum (Blumethal et al. 1986; Gnedin et al. 2004, 2011). This eect is also expected to modify the galaxys rotation curve, and hence the velocity used in the TFR. Hereafter, baryonic disc collapse and halo adiabatic contraction will collectively be referred to as AC. (iii) The proportion of a halos mass in baryons is unlikely to be universal. In particular, baryons are more easily ejected (due to supernovae or stellar winds, for example) from lower mass galaxies with shallower potential wells. Hence we expect baryon mass fraction (md ) to be a rising function of total (virial) mass. As well as directly determining the baryonic mass that constitutes the dependent variable of the TFR, this md Mvir (mm) relation governs the relative contributions of the disc and halo to the overall rotation curve, and hence aects the position of its maximum. Several previous studies have attempted to ascertain the ways in which these eects modify the TFR predicted by CDM. Here I briey discuss two representative papers in order to highlight some of the limitations of past work that provide the motivation for my own approach. Mayer & Moore (MM; Mayer & Moore 2004): MM attempt to correct the TFR for adiabatic contraction and the mc relation, and obtain reasonable agreement with observational data for Vvir 90 km s1 (see their g. 1). Although a valuable step towards understanding the TFR, their work has several drawbacks: (i) MM use an oversimplied mc relation, taking the concentration to be xed at 14 for galaxies with Vvir > 90 km s1 , and otherwise at 5. However, concentration is found to vary continuously with virial mass in numerical halo simulations (e.g. Bullock et al. 2001). This arbitrary discontinuity makes the break in the TFR that MM observe around 90 km s1 seem articial.
c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

(ii) The numerical simulations that MM use concerning the mc relation (Bullock et al. 2001) have subsequently been improved upon by higher-resolution simulations (Gao et al. 2008; Zhao et al. 2009), and their model of adiabatic contraction (Blumethal et al. 1986) is now obsolete (Gnedin et al. 2004, 2011). (iii) MM apply the concentration and adiabatic contraction corrections to the data points. It would be easier to interpret the result if they were instead applied to the na CDM line. Firstly, this would allow one to imve mediately identify the slope of the new theoretical TFR, facilitating comparison with dierent observational data sets. Secondly, it would provide more scope for a proper accounting of the uncertainties in the theory and measurements: purely observational error bars would accompany the measured points, and intrinsic scatter would transform the theoretical relation from a line to a band. There is no consideration of scatter in MMs study. Van den Bosch (vdB; van den Bosch 2000): vdB is concerned mainly with the relationship between the baryonic mass fraction of a galaxy and its total mass. He uses a semi-analytic model to describe the extent to which baryons are expelled through absorption of energy released by supernovae, tuning the parameters of the model until a TFR with slope 4 is produced. I believe that this approach has three fundamental shortcomings: (i) Little explanation may be given as to why the models parameters take the values that they do. Since the physics of astrophysical feedback is poorly understood (McGaugh 2012b), vdBs parametrization is not perfectly determined a priori, and with enough tunable quantities it is not surprising that the TFRs slope may be changed to the desired value. (ii) vdBs approach assumes that the TFR must have a slope of 4 in order to be in agreement with observational data. It may, however, be that TFRs with other slopes (in particular smaller slopes more in accord with the na ve CDM prediction of Eq. 5) are also able to account for the data satisfactorily. (iii) The inclusion of messy astrophysical processes is almost certain to increase the intrinsic scatter of the theoretical TFR, reducing agreement with observations. While the parameters may take vdBs values on average, one would expect them to vary considerably between galaxies due to chance uctuations in star-formation rate, supernova development etc. The majority of studies in the literature assume that dark matter haloes are well-t by the NFW prole. However, it has been claimed that force-tting this prole can bias estimates of the concentration,2 and that alternative

Concentration depends on halo scale-length, which strictly is only dened for the NFW prole. For alternatives, the scalelength will be dened as the radius at which the density becomes proportional to r2 .

H. Desmond
Raphson method to determine the nal density prole of the dark halo and thence the rotation curve. The latter may be used to nd a new estimate of the discs angular momentum, and hence of Rd . This updated scale-length is then adopted and the process iterated until the Rd value generated from the rotation curve is identical to the Rd value that produces that curve. [My convergence requirement is that fr (Mo et al. 1998, eq. 29) change by less than 0.1 per cent in the nal iteration; reducing this is found to make a negligible dierence to the results.] The self-consistent rotation curve is then sampled at 1000 radii logarithmically evenly spaced between 0.0001 Rvir and 0.4 Rvir , and 100 radii between 0.4 Rvir and Rvir , in order to determine the maximum rotation velocity of a model galaxy with this virial mass. Finally, this procedure is repeated for 47 virial masses in the range 107 M Mvir 1016 M , allowing the predicted TFR (maximum rotational velocity vs baryonic mass) to be plotted. In log-log space, a power-law TFR can be characterised by its slope and intercept (log(Mbar ) = slopelog(Vmax ) + intercept), and compared to the prediction of MOND (Eq. 6; slope = 4, intercept = 1.8), and the na prediction of CDM (Eq. 5; slope = 3, intercept ve = 4.5). The above framework leaves several important parameters undetermined: the halos concentration and baryon mass fraction md are integral to the calculation of Rd . The concentration will be determined using the mc relation of Zhao et al. (2009), where it is distilled from a large sample of high-resolution N-body simulations. Initially, md will be set equal to 0.05 (the recommendation of Mo et al. 1998), but later I will explore the eect of adopting a more realistic mm relation taken from TorresFlores et al. (2011). Prior to Section 3.3, will be set to its mean value of 0.05 (Mo et al. 1998).

proles may represent haloes more accurately (Gao et al. 2008). This makes it important to consider the extent to which the theoretical TFR depends on the density prole used to describe the haloes. 1.3 Aim

In view of the above limitations, my study will take account, as completely as possible, of all eects (relevant to the TFR) that are seen in up-to-date numerical simulations of dark matter haloes, and will not include any eects with tunable parameters. Hence I aim to provide a complete, unprejudiced, a priori prediction for the TFR in the CDM paradigm. In addition, I will propagate into the TFR the expected scatter in all relations that I use, and I will investigate the robustness of my results to changes in these relations and in the halo density prole. By applying the correction eects to the theoretical relation instead of the observational data, I will be able to keep track of the signicance, and ancillary eects, of each. In Section 2, I describe the technical details of my calculation of the predicted TFR. Section 3 contains a presentation and discussion of my results, including a comparison with recent observational data and with the MOND prediction. Section 4 summarises my ndings and comments on their wider implications.

METHOD

The basic methodology is adapted from Mo et al. (1998). The starting point is a halo of a particular virial mass. Eqs. 3 and 4 (Section 1.1) are used to evaluate the virial radius, virial velocity and scale-length of the NFW halo. Given these, one must nd a self-consistent solution for the scale-length (Rd ) of the disc (assumed exponential) that is formed by baryon collapse, and the total rotation curve. Rd is found via calculation of the total energy of the halo and angular momentum of the disc (an integral over the rotation curve), and comparison with a dimensionless spin parameter (see Mo et al. 1998, eq. 9). This parameter is used because its distribution is wellconstrained by numerical simulations (this will become important in the discussion of scatter in Section 3.3). The response of the dark halo to disc formation follows the adiabatic contraction prescription laid out in Gnedin et al. (2011) (note that Mo et al. 1998 uses an older model which has subsequently been surpassed in accuracy). Starting with an estimate for Rd , the adiabatic contraction equations may be solved3 using the Newton3

3 3.1

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The theoretical Tully-Fisher Relation

Gnedin et al. 2011 demonstrates that no single set of parameter values reliably species the eect of adiabatic contraction in all cases, and recommends considering a range. All recommended values are found to produce almost idential TFRs, so for simplicity I will use A0 = 1.6, w = 0.8 (see Gnedin et al. 2011, Eq. 4) throughout this work.

With md = = 0.05, the theoretical TFR for haloes with the NFW prole is almost perfectly linear in log-log space, with a slope of 3.22 and intercept of 3.33 see Table 1 and the red line of Fig. 1. Table 1 also displays the TFR parameters for three dierent density proles commonly encountered in the literature: Moore (Moore et al. 1999), Burkert (Burkert 1995), and Einasto (Gao et al. 2008). In order to illustrate the eect of baryon disc collapse and halo adiabatic contraction (AC) on the TFR, the 2nd row shows the slopes and intercepts obtained with these eects removed. In this case, the concentration is used directly to convert virial velocity to maximum rotation velocity (as in Bullock et al. 2001, Eq. 6). Two observations: (i) Even without AC, the slope is higher and the inc 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

Table 1. Parameters of the TFR for four dierent halo proles, in the form log(Mbar ) = slope log(Vmax ) + intercept. This linear relation is found to describe the TFRs almost perfectly. NFW With AC Without AC Slope 3.22 3.19 Intercept 3.33 3.75 Moore Slope 3.23 3.21 Intercept 3.23 3.65 Burkert Slope 3.25 3.25 Intercept 2.93 3.32 Einasto Slope 3.30 3.19 Intercept 3.27 3.91

tercept lower than the na CDM prediction. This is ve because a higher concentration causes a greater increase of Vmax over Vvir (e.g. Bullock et al. 2001, g. 1), and the concentration falls as Mvir rises.4 The eect of AC is to magnify this trend. (ii) In general, there is good agreement between the results (especially the slope) for the dierent proles. This indicates that halo parametrization is not critical, and hence only the NFW prole need be considered from now on. In addition, the similarity between the TFR parameters is increased by AC, suggesting that AC may act to stabilise the TFR by reducing sensitivity to its inputs.5 As discussed in Section 1.2, we do not expect the baryon mass fraction to be the same for all galaxies, but rather to rise with virial mass. One approach for taking account of this is to use observational measurements of baryonic and total masses (see Appendix 2 for an alternative method, based on numerical simulations, that presents an intiguing possibility for the interpretation of recent low-mass galaxy data). The empirical study used in this context is Torres-Flores et al. (2011), which reports baryon mass fractions varying as a power-law between md = 0.29 for Mvir = 109 M and md = 0.376 for Mvir = 1012 M :
B md = 10A Mvir ,

where A = 1.51 0.42, B = 0.09 0.04. Imposing this mm relation (hereafter denoted GHASP in reference to the survey from which the data in Torres-Flores et al. 2011 are derived) yields the magenta line in Fig. 1. The sensitivity of the TFR to the mm and mc relations is explored in more detail in Appendix 1, where it is shown to be reduced by AC.

3.2

Comparison with observational data, and calculation of 2

(7)

The maximum slope obtained here is lower than the slope of 3.4 obtained in Bullock et al. (2001). This is because the numerically-favoured mc relation has become shallower since the time of Bullocks work. 5 Another uncertain input is the overdensity parameter at which the halo is taken to virialise (cf. Section 1.1). The mc relation of Zhao et al. (2009) allows the use of one of two alternatives to 200 (340, 667; see Zhao et al. 2009, p. 2). Switching to either of these makes a negligible dierence to the TFR, giving condence that theoretical uncertainties concerning galaxy formation do not propagate into the predicted TFR. 6 It will be noticed that these exceed the universal baryon fraction, 0.17. The reason for discrepencies such as this is that the NFW halo does not have a well-dened outer edge, but rather merges continuously into the background mass density of the universe (McGaugh 2012c). This renders any denition of the extent of the halo somewhat arbitrary. The further the halo is considered to extend, the larger the total mass of the galaxy, and hence the smaller the baryon mass fraction (since all baryons are incorporated into the galaxys disc near the centre of the halo). c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

The fact that the theoretical TFRs described by Table 1 have slopes considerably lower than the MOND prediction (4) does not necessarily mean that they give an unacceptable t to observational data. Fig. 1 compares the MOND and CDM predictions with the gas-rich galaxy data of McGaugh (2012b) (black crosses).7 It is clear that the MOND line ts the data best. However, it can also be seen that accounting for AC and the mc and mm relations greatly increases the agreement of the CDM prediction with the data, particularly as regards the normalisation. To quantify goodness of t, I perform a 2 test of the hypothesis that the data are drawn from the zerointrinsic-scatter distributions expressed by each of the lines. The values of the 2 statistic, for the gas-rich galaxies only, are listed in Table 2, along with the reduced 2 values (2 ) obtained by dividing 2 by the number of red degrees of freedom of the system (46). The larger 2 , the worse the theoretical relationship at accounting for the data: the threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis at the 95 per cent level is 62.8, at the 99 per cent level is 71.2 and at the 99.9 per cent level is 81.4. As a rule of thumb, a 2 value near 1 signies good agreement red between theory and data. Table 2 argues for rejection of all the lines even that of MOND at the 95 per cent condence level. This would strongly suggest the presence of non-zero intrinsic scatter in the TFR. However, the MOND result given

Of the many observational studies into the TFR, this is unique in including only spirals in which gas (as opposed to stars) dominates the baryon budget. This reduces systematic uncertainties associated with the determination of stellar mass from luminosity (McGaugh 2012b).

H. Desmond
Comparison of Observational Data with Theoretical TFRs 12 McGaugh Data GHASP Data md = 0.05 MOND Naive LCDM GHASP 4 Intercept of log(Mbar)-log(Vmax) Relation
0 50 200

Contour Plot of chi2 Values obtained for different Power Law TFRs

11 log10(Baryonic Mass / Msun)

3.5

50 0 0 20

20 00

00 10

0 50 00 90 2

2.5

00 20 0 100

10

90

90

00 20 00 10

2
0 50 0 20

6 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.5 log10(Rotational Velocity / km s-1)) 3 3.5 4 4.5 Slope of log(Mbar)-log(Vmax) Relation 5

Figure 1. Gas-dominated (black) galaxies are taken from McGaugh (2012b), and star-dominated (cyan) galaxies are taken from Torres-Flores et al. (2011). The red and magenta lines dier only in galaxies baryon mass fractions.

Figure 2. 2 values of ts of power-law TFRs to the gas-rich galaxy data.

Table 2. 2 and reduced 2 values for ts to the gas-rich galaxy data only. The dierent rows correspond to dierent theoretical TFRs: md = 0.05 takes a universal galaxy baryon mass fraction of 0.05 (red line in Fig. 1), and GHASP uses the mm relation of Torres-Flores et al. (2011) (magenta line; cf. Eq. 7). 2 md = 0.05 GHASP MOND Prediction 138 119 80 2 red 3 2.59 1.74

here conicts with that in McGaugh (2012a), where 2 (using exactly the same data) is calculated to be 44. The discrepancy is attributable entirely to dierences in the error estimates ascribed to the points: McGaugh added an extra error term associated with uncertainties in the inclinations of the measured galaxies (McGaugh 2012c). Since there is no rigid rule for determining observational uncertainties, neither result is incorrect, making the 2 test somewhat subjective and hence warning against an overly-literal interpretation of the result. In view of this, the rejection of the theoretical predictions is not rigorously justied; instead, I will use 2 as a measure of the relative goodness of dierent models. It is clear that the MOND line provides a better t to the data than any of those based on CDM. However, despite the red and magenta CDM lines having a signicantly lower slope than that of MOND, their 2 values are only around 50 per cent larger. This suggests that it may not be absolutely necessary for the

TFR to have a slope of 4 in order to give satisfactory agreement with the data. Fig. 2 plots the 2 values obtained for power-law TFRs with a range of slopes and intercepts, and demonstrates that a simultaneous decrease in the slope and increase in the intercept from the MOND values causes only minor degradation of the agreement with the data. The slope of the TFR is, therefore, not well constrained by this data. To constrain it further, it is necessary to include galaxies of higher mass. Many studies have measured the TFR beyond Mbar 1010 M (e.g. see table 3 in Torres-Flores et al. 2011).8 The data presented in Torres-Flores et al. (2011) is both recent and in agreement with most previous studies, and is therefore a good source of high-mass galaxies to augment the gas-dominated sample. The new data are described by cyan crosses in Fig. 1. Table 3 shows the results when these galaxies are included in the 2 calculation. Firstly, both of the improved CDM lines now perform better than MOND due to the lower slope of the new data (the authors of Torres-Flores et al. 2011 quote their best t slope as 3.72 0.29). Secondly, all the 2 values rise. This is because the newlyred added data points are more scattered than that of McGaugh (2012b) (relative to their error bars), and hence linear TFRs with no intrinsic scatter are worse at ac8

Higher-mass spirals necessarily have a larger ratio of stellar to gas mass than low-mass spirals, making any analysis using them more prone to systematic errors associated with estimation of the mass-to-light ratio. Such errors are of course very dicult to identify and account for, and I shall mention them no further. But it should be borne in mind that the results with these galaxies included are less certain than those without, and I shall therefore list 2 values both with and without this new data in Section 3.3. c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

10

00

1.5

0 200

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

Table 3. Same as Table 2 but now including star-dominated as well as gas-dominated galaxies. 2 md = 0.05 GHASP MOND Prediction 323 270 434 2 red 3.71 3.1 4.99 2 Gas-Rich Galaxies All Galaxies 14 23 2 red 0.31 0.27

Table 4. 2 values obtained for the theoretical TFR band of Fig. 3(a). The method for including the intrinsic scatter in the 2 calculation is described in the text.

counting for them. This again indicates that there may in fact be some intrinsic scatter in the observed TFR. We turn now to a systematic investigation of the sources of such scatter in the CDM framework.

3.3

Intrinsic scatter

Two sources of intrinsic scatter in the theoretical TFR are variability in halo spin and baryon mass fraction. The spin parameter is set by cosmological torques and inter-galactic tidal interactions (Eisenstein & Loeb 1996), and therefore varies with environment. Numerical simulations nd following a log-normal probability distribution with mean 0.05 and standard deviation 0.5 (Mo et al. 1998). The baryon mass fraction md of a galaxy is determined by the extent of baryon expulsion via astrophysical energy release, and hence galaxies with the same virial mass will have dierent md values if their star or supernova formation rates dier. Scatter in md translates into uncertainty in the slope and intercept parameters of the mm relation. In the absence of further information, I take the probability distributions of these parameters (A and B; see Eq. 7) to be normal with standard deviation equal to the quoted errors. To model the intrinsic scatter that the , A and B distributions create in the TFR, I repeat the computation described in Section 2 with the following modications. 1) The number of Mvir values is increased from 47 to 500. 2) For each Mvir , 500 dierent values of , A and B are randomly drawn from their respective probability distributions. 3) A 7575 element grid is constructed spanning the range 106 M < Mbar < 1012 M , 100.7 km s1 < Vmax < 102.7 km s1 . For each of the 500500 = 250,000 input parameter sets (Mvir , , A, B), Mbar and Vmax are calculated and identied with a particular element of this grid. The nal number of points in each element is then outputted and compared with the observational data as a contour plot, Fig. 3(a). This shows the band in which CDM predicts observational points to lie, taking account of scatter in both spin and baryon mass fraction. Fig. 3(a) goes some way towards reconciling the observed TFR with the CDM prediction: virtually all data points are covered by the theoretical band. Moreover, high-mass galaxies lie near the central (red) region that is predicted to be most heavily populated. There are, however, two major problems. Firstly, it is clear that the predicted intrinsic scatter is much too large. This
c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

poses a ne-tuning problem: given the large area in the Mbar Vmax plane available to galaxies, why do they lie almost along a line? Secondly, the lower-mass galaxies lie below the red part of the band and are therefore poorly accounted for. This suggests (as anticipated) that the theoretical TFR is too shallow. To quantify the extent to which the variance is too large and the modal prediction inaccurate, it is instructive to compute 2 . To take account of the intrinsic scatter, the following procedure is used (working in log-log space throughout). 1) Within each of the (75) velocity bins of the contour plot (i.e. a vertical slice), the mode and population variance of the Mbar values is calculated. 2) The predicted TFR (which must be a line in the context of a 2 analysis) is taken to be the linear best t to the modal mass values across the bins. 3) A second order polynomial is tted to the variance values across the bins (this is found to successfully reproduce the general trend as Vmax varies). 4) The appropriate variance calculated from this is added to the denominator of the 2 expression for each data point.9 The results constitute Table 4. The fact that 2 red 1 shows that the theory now overpredicts the data, allowing galaxies to reside in regions of the Mbar Vmax plane, where, observationally, they do not. 2 is lowered when red the star-dominated galaxies are included because these lie closer to the predicted (modal) TFR. There exist several sources of scatter beyond spin and baryon fraction. For example, galaxies of the same mass may have dierent concentrations (dierently shaped density proles) due to dierences in their merger history and hence their epoch of virialisation. One therefore expects scatter in the mc relation. This was not incorporated into Fig. 3(a) in order to demonstrate its individual impact on the TFRs scatter. Although no uncertainty is quoted in the source of the mc relation used here (Zhao et al. 2009), other studies have indicated that the concentration follows a log-normal distribution

This procedure essentially assumes a normal distribution of baryon masses for a particular rotational velocity, but it is clear from Fig. 3(a) that this is not the case (the distribution has a tail towards low Mbar ). However, it does provide a rough assessment of the eect of the intrinsic scatter on 2 . In view of the uncertainties inherent in the interpretation of 2 , discussed in Section 3.2, a more accurate description of the variance is not necessary.

H. Desmond
Predicted TFR including Scatter in Spin and Baryon Mass Fraction

11 log10(Baryonic Mass / Msun)

10

with standard deviation roughly independent of Mvir and equal to 0.18 (Jing 2000; Bullock et al. 2001). Fig. 3(b) is the analogue of Fig. 3(a) with random concentrations selected from this distribution. Although the variability in the concentration is large (e.g. Bullock et al. 2001, g. 4), the additional scatter introduced into the TFR is negligible. This suggests that sources of scatter beyond those investigated here [e.g. due to incomplete virialisation of the dark matter haloes (Jing 2000) or variations in galaxy mass aggregation histories (Eisenstein & Loeb 1996)] may not signicantly widen the theoretical band of Fig. 3(a).

6 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2

-1

3.4
2.4 2.6 log10(Rotational Velocity / km s )

Selection eects

(a)
Predicted TFR including Scatter in Spin, Baryon Mass Fraction and Concentration

11 log10(Baryonic Mass / Msun)

10

6 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 log10(Rotational Velocity / km s-1)

(b)
Predicted TFR for Galaxies with Flat Rotation Curves

11 log10(Baryonic Mass / Msun)

10

6 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 log10(Rotational Velocity / km s-1)

(c) Figure 3. Dependence of model galaxy count on region of the Mbar Vmax plane, following the procedure of Section 3.3. The contours are at 40, 70, 100, 130, and 160.

So far, all allowed halo spins, concentrations and baryon mass fractions have been used to construct model galaxies, and have contributed to Fig. 3(b). However, it is unlikely that all such parameters would yield spiral galaxies whose properties astronomers would measure and plot on the TFR. Reasons for this fall in one of two categories. 1) Haloes with extreme parameter values may be unstable and hence never form disc galaxies (e.g. very low may make a galaxy prone to the development of a bar instability; Mo et al. 1998). 2) Astronomers typically require galaxies to fulll certain selection criteria to be included in the TFR, with the intention of minimizing systematic error and ensuring some degree of consistency within the sample. A proper comparison of a theoretical TFR with observational data should limit the input parameter space to the regions which generate stable spiral galaxies with properties passing all selection requirements of the data. Theoretical uncertainties in our knowledge of galaxy formation make rigorous realisation of this very challenging; only observational selection criteria may be fully accounted for, since these are dened by astronomers. To illustrate in a qualitative way the importance of selection eects, I shall consider one requirement on galaxies included in McGaugh (2012b): a at rotation curve. An important observational issue is the point on a galaxys rotation curve at which velocity is measured (cf. footnote 1, p. 2). McGaugh adopts Vat (due to earlier work suggesting that this minimizes the scatter in the TFR), and denes a rotation curve as at if the dierence between the velocity at 3 disc scale-lengths and at the last measured point of the rotation curve is less than 15 per cent (Stark et al. 2009). This criterion is not directly applicable to the model galaxies of Section 3.3 because the last measured point is not dened. I therefore use a modied criterion, which should nevertheless produce similar results: the dierence between the maximum velocity and that at 3 disc scale lengths must be less than 15 per cent. Discarding galaxies not deemed at by this criterion, Fig. 3(c) is produced. The intrinsic scatter is much reduced; in particular, abnormally high velocities are
c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

Table 5. 2 values obtained for the theoretical TFR band of Fig. 3(c). 2 Gas-Rich Galaxies All Galaxies 39 72 2 red 0.84 0.83

eliminated. This improves agreement with the high-mass galaxies, but causes points at low mass to lie below the predicted band. Table 5 lists the new 2 values.10 The increase of 2 red almost to 1 indicates much-improved agreement with the data. However, caution is required in the interpretation of this result. It is evident from Fig. 3(c) that the predicted slope is still too low, and in particular low-mass galaxies are still poorly described. This reveals 2 1 red to be something of a coincidence, resulting from an imperfect t to the data combined with excessive scatter. Nevertheless, this analysis does constitute a general proof of principle that scatter in the TFR can be signicantly reduced by consideration of selection eects.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary results of this study are threefold: (i) The na ve CDM prediction for the TFR can be brought into better agreement with observational data by taking proper account of concentration, baryon mass fraction, and baryon disc collapse followed by adiabatic contraction of the halo. However, the slope of the theoretical TFR is persistently too low. (ii) Accounting for the variability of the halo spin parameter and baryon mass fraction gives the theoretical TFR an intrinsic scatter somewhat larger than that exhibited by the data (2 1). However, other sources red of variability may not further increase the intrinsic scatter signicantly (this is explicitly demonstrated for the expected variation in concentration). The width of the theoretical TFR is considerably reduced by applying a selection requirement of the observational data (a at rotation curve). (iii) Although collapse of baryons to a disc and adiabatic contraction of the halo have only a small eect on the predicted TFR (increasing the slope and reducing the intercept), they do reduce its sensitivity to changes in the input galaxy properties (e.g. density parametrization, concentration, baryon mass fraction). In short, this paper illustrates the ways in which Eq. 5 may naturally be improved upon within the CDM
10 Note that there were no atness requirements in TorresFlores et al. (2011), from which the star-dominated galaxy data were taken.

cosmogony. If MOND were correct and the dark matter paradigm merely an elaborate mathematical construct divorced from reality, there would be no reason for corrections to the CDM prediction (which are themselves entirely independent of the TFR) to bring the TFR closer to the observational data. The fact that both the intercept and slope move in the correct direction suggests CDM to be verisimilitudinous. We should resist the hasty conclusion that the persistently low slope constitutes a failure of sucient magnitude to warrant discarding CDM. In fact, Fig. 1 suggests that the remaining discrepancy between the data and theoretical TFR may be almost entirely attributable to errors in the baryon mass fractions of the model galaxies. This work considered only a subset of the eects causing intrinsic scatter in the TFR. Further sources of scatter include the possibility that dark haloes have yet to virialise or are not well-tted by an NFW prole (Jing 2000), variations in galaxies mass aggregation histories (Eisenstein & Loeb 1996), and halo triaxiality (Kazantzidis et al. 1979). However, there exist also unconsidered selection factors which will reduce the scatter, such as the possibility that low angular momentum haloes cannot harbour stable disc galaxies (Mo et al. 1998), and that disc formation in haloes with high baryon mass fraction is likely to create elliptical or S0 galaxies to which the TFR does not apply (Mayer & Moore 2004). The true theoretical intrinsic scatter can only be determined once all of these eects have been included in the style of Sections 3.3 and 3.4.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Subir Sarkar for guidance and encouragement, and Stacy McGaugh for helpful discussions of his work.

REFERENCES Baugh C.M., 2006, Reports on Progress in Physics, 69, 3101 Blumenthal G.R., Faber S.M., Flores R., Primack J.R., 1986, ApJ, 301, 27 Bullock J.S. et al., 2001, MNRAS, 321, 559 Burkert A., 1995, ApJ, 447, L25 Eisenstein D.J., Loeb A., 1996, ApJ, 459, 432 Felten J.E., 1984, ApJ, 286, 3 Gao L., Navarro J.F., Cole S., Frenk C.S., White S.D.M., Springel V., Jenkins A., Neto A.F., 2008, MNRAS, 387, 536 Gnedin N.Y., 2000, ApJ, 542, 535 Gnedin O.Y., Ceverino D., Gnedin N.Y., Klypin A.A., Kravtsov A.V., Levine R., Nagai D., Yepes G., 2011, arXiv:astro-ph/1108.5736 Gnedin O.Y., Kravtsov A.V., Klypin A.A., Nagai D., 2004, ApJ, 616, 16

c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

10

H. Desmond
of the slope of the TFR to the mc relation: without AC, the slope falls to around 2.2 within the parameter range tested, but with AC it always exceeds 3. (iii) As suggested by Table 1, AC acts in general to increase the slope of the TFR and reduce its intercept. Due to diering denitions of the true extent of a galaxys dark halo, the relation between baryon mass fraction and virial mass is even less well-constrained than that between mass and concentration. As a result, the mm relation used in Section 3 is far from denitive. A rst step towards addressing this issue is to investigate the extent to which the slope and intercept of the TFR depend on the parameters of the mm relation. For simplicity, I shall assume that the mm relation follows a power-law. Fig. A2 displays the results (cf. Eq. 8), both with and without AC. With AC, both surface and contour plots are shown for clarity. There are several important points: (i) Without AC, the slope and intercept of the TFR vary in a straightforward way. In particular, the slope of the TFR grows linearly with the slope of the mm relation and is independent of its intercept. This is because a larger mm relation slope corresponds to a greater baryon mass fraction (and hence total baryonic mass) at higher Mvir . (ii) This is not the case when the eects of AC are included. When the mm relation slope is larger than 0.05, a further increase actually decreases the slope of the TFR. This must be because a smaller md at low Mvir causes a smaller disc contribution to the rotation curve, and hence a smaller Vmax , which more than osets the reduction in Mbar . (iii) With AC, the intercept and slope of the TFR vary in a highly non-trivial way with the parameters of the mm relation. The most prominent features of Figs. 2(c) and 2(d) are a huge depression in the TFR intercept and plateau in the slope along roughly the same line, suggesting some degree of correlation between the two. This is reminiscent of the correlation in the goodness of t of power-law TFRs to the gas-rich galaxy data (Fig. 2). To investigate this further, Fig. A3 overlays on Fig. 2 each of the (slope, intercept) pairs obtained as the parameters of the mm relation are varied in the ranges specied in Fig. A2. Interestingly, the slope-intercept correlation causes the points to lie roughly along the line of low 2 . This suggests a relative insensitivity of the goodness of the TFR to the parameters of the mm relation. Almost any reasonable relation will produce 2 values as low as those obtained by adopting a universal baryon mass fraction, or the (GHASP) mm relation of Torres-Flores et al. (2011). This gives condence that the TFR will not be radically altered by adopting an alternative approach used in the literature to nd baryonic mass. However, this is only true when AC is taken into account.
c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

Hoeft M., Yepes G., Gottlber S., Springel V., 2006, o MNRAS, 371, 401 Jing Y.P., 2000, ApJ, 535, 30 Kazantzidis S., Abadi M.G., Navarro J.F., 2010, ApJ, 720, L62 Komatsu E. et al., 2009, ApJ, 180, 330 Mayer L., Moore B., 2004, MNRAS, 354, 477 McGaugh S.S., 2012, Physical Review Letters, 106, 12 McGaugh S.S., 2012, AJ, 143, 40 McGaugh S.S., 2012 (March), personal communication McGaugh S.S., Wolf J., 2010, ApJ, 722, 248 Milgrom M., 1983, ApJ, 270, 365 Mo H.J., Mao S., White S.D.M., 1998, MNRAS, 295, 319 Moore B., Quinn T., Governato F., Stadel J., Lake G., 1999, MNRAS, 310, 11471152 Navarro J.F., Frenk C.S., White S.D.M., 1996, ApJ, 462, 563 Peacock J., 2002, Cosmological physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Peebles P.J.E., 1969, ApJ, 155, 393 Stark D.V., McGaugh S.S., Swaters R.A., 2009, 138, 392 Torres-Flores S., Epinat B., Amram P., Plana H., Mendes de Oliveira C., MNRAS, 416, 1936 Van den Bosch F.C., 2000, 530, 177 Zhao D.H., Jing Y.P., Mo H.J., Brner G., 2009, 707, o 354

APPENDIX A: SENSITIVITY OF THE TFR TO CONCENTRATION AND BARYON MASS FRACTION Dierent papers (e.g. Bullock et al. 2001; Gao et al. 2008) propose dierent power-law relations between a halos concentration and virial mass, suggesting that the slope and intercept may depend to some extent on the details of the simulations used. This makes it important to investigate the robustness of the theoretical TFRs in Section 3 (Figs. 1 and 3) to changes in the mc relation. This will be performed both with and without AC in order to determine in more generality the eect that this has on the TFR, and hence the importance of its inclusion. The mc relation will be taken to be of the form:
D c = 10C Mvir ,

(A1)

where, for reference, the parameter values given by Gao et al. (2008) are C = 2.65 and D = -0.138. Fig. A1 shows the slope and intercept of the TFR as A and B are varied around these values. (All TFRs obtained in Section 3 were almost perfectly linear in log-log space, so this will be assumed here.) Three eects are noticeable from Fig. A1: (i) The slope of the TFR cannot be increased beyond around 3.4 by steepening the mc relation. (ii) The primary eect of AC is to reduce sensitivity

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

11

Dependence of the TFR Slope on Parameters of the mc Relation

Dependence of the TFR Intercept on Parameters of the mc Relation

3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 -0.1 -0.15 D -0.2 -0.25 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 C 2.1 2.2 TFR Intercept TFR Slope

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 -0.1 -0.15 D -0.2 -0.25 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 C 2.1 2.7

(a)

(b)

Dependence of the TFR Slope on Parameters of the mc Relation, without AC

Dependence of the TFR Intercept on Parameters of the mc Relation, without AC

3.4 3.2 TFR Intercept -0.1 -0.15 D -0.2 -0.25 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 C 2.1 2.2 TFR Slope 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.7

5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 -0.1 -0.15 D -0.2 -0.25 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 C 2.1 2.2 2.7

(c)

(d)

Figure A1. The dependence of the intercept and slope of the TFR on the mc relation, given by log(concentration) = C + Dlog(Mvir ).

APPENDIX B: BARYON MASS FRACTIONS FROM NUMERICAL SIMULATION The mm relations used in Section 3 and Appendix 1 are empirically motivated. However, it would be more in keeping with the philosophy of this paper to use the results of numerical simulation of dark matter haloes. This would allow a more complete a priori prediction of the TFR in the CDM paradigm, which would therefore constitute a more comprehensive test of the model. This approach is relegated to an appendix because the results of the simulations are in apparent conict with observation, potentially indicating a aw in the simulations. I do not wish to propagate this aw (which is fundamentally distinct from the TFR) into my primary results. Nevertheless, I include this approach here for an interesting possibility it presents in the context of very slowly-rotating galaxies.
c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

Simulations (Gnedin 2000; Hoeft et al. 2006) suggest that galaxies with Mvir 1011 M retain close to the cosmic baryon fraction (0.17), whilst galaxies of considerably lower mass have almost all of their baryons expelled by UV radiation at the epoch of reionisation. The dening feature of their mm relations is therefore a precipitous drop in baryon mass fraction from 0.17 to 0 over just two decades of virial mass. The relation from Hoeft et al. (2006) produces the TFR described by the blue line in Fig. B1. It is characterised by a prominent break at Vmax 20 km s1 , below which the slope is much greater than above. Above the break, the line exhibits moderate agreement with the gas- and star-rich galaxy data introduced in Section 3.2. There is, in fact, preliminary observational evidence for a break in the TFR around 20 km s1 . The red points in Fig. B1 show data for ultra-faint, slowly-rotating

12

H. Desmond

Dependence of the TFR Intercept on Parameters of the mm Relation Dependence of the TFR Slope on Parameters of the mm Relation

4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 0.2 0.15 B 0.1 0.05 -0.4 -0.6 -1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 A -1.6 0 -2 -1.8

4.5 4 TFR Intercept 3.5 3 2.5 2 0.2 0.15 B 0.1 0.05 -0.6-0.4 -1 -0.8 -1.4-1.2 -1.6 A 0 -1.8

TFR Slope

(a)
Dependence of the TFR Slope on Parameters of the mm Relation 0.2
3.25618

(b)
Dependence of the TFR Intercept on Parameters of the mm Relation 0.2

3.25618
0.15 0.15

2.72411

0.1

2.85886
0.05
3.25618

3.6535 3.25618

2.85886
3.65 3.25618 35

0.1

0.05

0 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 A -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

(c)

Dependence of the TFR Intercept on Parameters of the mm Relation, without AC Dependence of the TFR Slope on Parameters of the mm Relation, without AC

4 TFR Intercept 3.8 TFR Slope 3.6 3.4 3.2 0.2 0.15 B 0.1 0.05 -0.4 -0.6 -1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 A -1.6 0 -2 -1.8

6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 0.2 0.15 B 0.1 0.05 0 -0.6-0.4 -1 -0.8 -1.4-1.2 A -1.8-1.6

(e)

Figure A2. The dependence of the intercept and slope of the TFR on the mm relation, given by log(md ) = A + Blog(Mvir ) (cf. Eq. 7).

c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000

2.72411

3.90023
-1.2 A -1

3.9002 3

1.78321 1.78321

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

(d)

(f)

The baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation predicted by cold dark matter cosmogony

Contour Plot of chi2 Values obtained for different Power Law TFRs

13

4 Intercept of log(Mbar)-log(Vmax) Relation

0 50 200

10

20

3.5
0 20 90

00 500

00

500 200 90

2.5

0 200 0 00 1

90

00 20 00 10 0 50 0

20

20

2.5

3 3.5 4 4.5 Slope of log(Mbar)-log(Vmax) Relation

10

00

1.5

00

Figure A3. 2626 TFR slope-intercept pairs resulting from varying the parameters of the mm relation in the ranges specied in Fig. A2, overlaid on Fig. 2. Points do not deviate far from the band of low 2 .
Comparison of Theoretical TFRs with Observations, including Ultra-Slow Rotators 12

10 log10(Baryonic Mass / Msun)

2 0.5

McGaugh Data GHASP Data Ultrafaint Data MOND Numerical mm Relation GHASP mm Relation 1 1.5 2 2.5 log10(Rotational Velocity / km s-1)

Figure B1. Galaxy data as in Fig. 1 but with additional data (red) for very slowly-rotating galaxies taken from McGaugh & Wolf (2010).

galaxies taken from McGaugh & Wolf (2010), where it is noticed that these points fall below the straight line best t to the higher-velocity galaxies. While it is clear that the TFR generated using the numerical mm relation does not provide a perfect t to this new data, the fact that it produces a break approximately as observed presents the intriguing possibility that this change in slope is a consequence of the way in which baryonic mass varies with total mass in galaxies.

c 0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000000