Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Oil Disadvantage
***1nc’s***....................................................................................................................................................................3
Oil Prices 1nc..................................................................................................................................................................4
Renewables 1nc...............................................................................................................................................................5
***Links***....................................................................................................................................................................6
Reduce Demand Reduces Prices.....................................................................................................................................7
US Consumption Key.....................................................................................................................................................8
Small Change Hurts Economy........................................................................................................................................9
Perception Key to Prices...............................................................................................................................................10
US Key OPEC..............................................................................................................................................................11
US Key World Production.............................................................................................................................................12
***Russian Oil***........................................................................................................................................................13
Russian Economy Good................................................................................................................................................14
High Oil Prices Key Economy......................................................................................................................................15
Decrease Oil Prices Collapses Russian Economy.........................................................................................................16
Oil Key Russian Economy............................................................................................................................................17
High Prices Key Stability..............................................................................................................................................18
US-Russian Relations Impact Module.........................................................................................................................19
Nationalism Impact Module..........................................................................................................................................20
Russian Collapse Impact...............................................................................................................................................21
A2: Russia Has No Oil..................................................................................................................................................22
***Renewables***.......................................................................................................................................................23
Low Oil Dooms Renewables........................................................................................................................................24
US Modeled..................................................................................................................................................................25
US Action Jumpstarts Political Will..............................................................................................................................26
A2: China Alternative Causality...................................................................................................................................27
US Key..........................................................................................................................................................................28
***Affirmative Answers***.........................................................................................................................................29
***Oil Generics***......................................................................................................................................................31
No Internal: Price Volatility..........................................................................................................................................32
Oil 2ac...........................................................................................................................................................................33
Oil 2ac...........................................................................................................................................................................34
Oil 2ac...........................................................................................................................................................................35
Extend: Peak Oil...........................................................................................................................................................36
Extend: Global Demand................................................................................................................................................37
Extend: Commodity Exchange.....................................................................................................................................38
Extend: OPEC...............................................................................................................................................................39
Extend: China................................................................................................................................................................40
High Prices Inevitable – Terrorism...............................................................................................................................41
***Russian Oil***........................................................................................................................................................42
Russia 2ac.....................................................................................................................................................................43
Russia 2ac.....................................................................................................................................................................44
A2: Russian Economy...................................................................................................................................................45
A2: Russian Oil Price DA: Defense..............................................................................................................................46
A2: Russian oil price DA: Econ bounce back...............................................................................................................47
A2: Russian oil price DA: Numerous Checks..............................................................................................................48
Low oil prices good: Russian Economic Reform 1ar...................................................................................................49
High oil prices bad: Hurt Russian Economy ................................................................................................................50
***Renewables***.......................................................................................................................................................51
Renewables 2ac.............................................................................................................................................................52
A2: Warming.................................................................................................................................................................53
Renewbles Now Bad.....................................................................................................................................................54
Renewables Now bad: Not Enough Info.......................................................................................................................55
Now Not Key................................................................................................................................................................56
Renewables Fail............................................................................................................................................................57
Renewables Fail ...........................................................................................................................................................58
MSDI 2008 2
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
***1nc’s***
MSDI 2008 4
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Small changes to US consumption are key to international oil markets, mere perception of
U.S. oil use decrease will collapse prices
Paul Roberts, energy expert and writer for Harpers,2004, The End of Oil, pg. 95
Within the oil world, no decision of any significance is made without reference to the U.S. market, nor is anything left to
chance. Indeed, the world’s oil players watch the American oil market as attentively as palace physicians once attended the royal
bowels: every hour of every day, every oil state and company in the world keeps an unblinking watch on the United
States and strains to find a sign of anything — from a shift in energy policy to a trend toward smaller cars to an unusually mild
winter —that might affect the colossal U.S. consumption. For this reason, the most important day of the week for oil traders
anywhere in the world is Wednesday, when the U.S. Department of Energy releases its weekly figures on American oil use, and when, as one
analyst puts it, “the market makes up its mind whether to be bearish or bullish.”
High oil prices are key to the Russian economy, price decrease will collapse the Russian
ecconomy
The National Interest, Summer 2003
The improved appearance of Moscow (although not the rest of the country) is indisputable, but it is mainly a product of the
high price of oil. Every dollar difference in the price of oil translates into roughly $1 billion in budget revenue; a
high price for oil has therefore become the key to the government's ability to balance the budget, pay state employees and repay
Russia's foreign debt. If the price should fall significantly and stay relatively low, as it did in much of the 1980s and 1990s, Russia
will be plunged into a severe economic crisis.
The fragile Russian economy is the only thing holding back a Russian civil war and a
worldwide nuclear war.
Steven David (Prof. of political science at Johns Hopkins) 1999, Foreign Affairs
If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause. From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society
where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached 9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty-two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning
less than $ 70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all, but in a land without well-defined
property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political
crisis show, Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience. A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military. In the Soviet
days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. But with the Communist Party out of office, what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile foundation -- personal friendships between government
leaders and military commanders. Meanwhile, the morale of Russian soldiers has fallen to a dangerous low. Drastic cuts in spending mean inadequate pay, housing, and medical care. A new emphasis on domestic missions has
created an ideological split between the old and new guard in the military leadership, increasing the risk that disgruntled generals may enter the political fray and feeding the resentment of soldiers who dislike being used as a
national police force. Newly enhanced ties between military units and local authorities pose another danger. Soldiers grow ever more dependent on local governments for housing, food, and wages. Draftees serve closer to home,
and new laws have increased local control over the armed forces. Were a conflict to emerge between a regional power and Moscow, it is not at all clear which side the military would support. Divining the military's allegiance is
crucial, however, since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt. Russia's 89 republics, krais, and oblasts grow ever more independent in a system that does little
to keep them together. As the central government finds itself unable to force its will beyond Moscow (if even that far), power devolves to the periphery. With the economy collapsing, republics feel less and less incentive to pay
taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. Three-quarters of them already have their own constitutions, nearly all of which make some claim to sovereignty. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies
may motivate non-Russians to secede from the Federation. Chechnya's successful revolt against Russian control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country. If these rebellions spread and
the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe. A
Moscow responds with force, civil war is likely. Should Russia succumb to internal war,
civil conflict there will unleash nuclear weapons against the United
vulnerable to the ravages of civil war. For Russia, America must reduce the chances that
States. First, Washington must do more to reduce the amount of nuclear weapons and fissionable material that could be lost, stolen, or used in the chaos of civil war. The Nunn-Lugar program, under which the United States
buys Russian nuclear material to use and store in America, is a good start, but it must be accelerated. America should not worry about making a profit on the plutonium and enriched uranium it buys, but just get the goods out of
Russia as fast as possible. Second, arms control initiatives that may have been unpalatable during the Cold War should now be reconsidered, given the risk of accidental or unauthorized launchings. American policymakers should
contemplate agreements to reduce the total number of Russian (and American) nuclear weapons, to deprive the Russians of the ability to quickly launch a nuclear strike (for example, by contracting to store warheads away from
missiles), and should intensify efforts to develop an effective defense against missile attacks.
MSDI 2008 5
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Renewables 1nc
Low oil prices undercut investments in renewables
Leonardo Maugeri, ENI SPA's senior vice-president of corporate strategies and international relations, senior
fellow at the World Economic Laboratory at MIT, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Association, and a member
of the executive council of the Center for Social Investment Studies, degree in petroleum economics and a PhD in
international political economy,, 12/15/2003, Oil & Gas Journal
Hysteria aside, cheap oil has always been and remains a curse for industrialized countries and the most elusive enemy of oil
security. It hampers any possibility of dealing with new energy alternatives to oil -- which are all very expensive -- or with the
development of new oil regions. It maintains Western habits -- and particular those of the US -- of not promoting any form of energy-saving.
Finally, it increases consumer dependence on a limited group of countries with the lowest production costs, which today still are those in
the Persian Gulf. However, cheap oil is a curse for them too.
Consumers will only turn to renewables if it is apparent that high oil prices are permanent
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 4/20, 2002
Oil prices have steadily risen since the start of this year, at one point even going beyond 28 dollars per barrel, and while this is
worrisome to most people, one sector of German industry is expectantly rubbing its hands: the renewable energy
companies. "An increased use of regenerative energies and a change in consumer behaviour...will first set in when the 30 dollar (per barrel)
mark is exceeded," says Norbert Allnoch, director of the International Economic Forum for Regenerative Energy (IWR). Only when the
expectation sets in that "over the long term will there be higher oil prices" can a change in consumers' habits be
expected, adds Allnoch of the Muenster-based think tank. Regenerative energy is a grab-bag term to cover a wide range of
alternatives to fossil or nuclear fuels, including solar cells, hydroelectricity, wind power and bio-gas.
***Links***
MSDI 2008 7
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Decreased US demand decreases oil prices and bankrupts states like Mexico and Algeria
Paul Roberts, energy expert and writer for Harpers,2004, The End of Oil, pg. 323
The last time the United States got really serious about energy efficiency after the 1974 oil price shocks U.S. oil
— —
use fell so low that OPEC was nearly wiped out. A more permanent reduction — even if partly offset by rising
demand in the fast-growing Asian economies —would completely change the global oil order. As oil prices fell to —
as low as fifteen dollars a barrel, some analysts say many big oil states would see their geopolitical status tumble.
—
Some, like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and Qatar, which have enormous gas reserves, could compensate by stepping
up efforts to sell gas, especially to gas-hungry markets like China, India, and the United States. Other petrostates
— like Mexico and Algeria, for instance might be pushed into bankruptcy and would then require a massive, and
—
US Consumption Key
US consumption shapes world demand
Paul Roberts, energy expert and writer for Harpers,2004, The End of Oil, pg. 94
The geopolitics of oil are vast, complex, and ever-changing, but three elements are of absolute importance. The first is
the preponderant
role of the United States. Since the earliest days of the oil industry, the country has been the dominant figure, first
as the world’s largest producer of oil and other energy and now as its largest consumer. Today, one out of every
four barrels of oil produced in the world is burned in America, and this enormous, apparently limitless appetite
exerts a ceaseless pull on the rest of the world’s oil players and on the shape of the world political order.
Surging US demand is the key driver of OPEC and global oil markets
Joe Barnes, research fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Police at Rice, Amy Jaffe, Fellow for Energy Studies
at the Baker Institute, and. Edward L. Morse, Executive Adviser at Hess Energy Trading Company and was
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Energy Policy in 1979–81, Winter 2003/2004, originally
printed in National Interest, http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-01-06.html
Missing from this discussion are any serious measures to address the demand side of our reliance on Middle East
oil. Current U.S. oil demand is about 20 million bpd, of which only 40 percent is produced domestically. Indeed,
the consistent growth in U.S. oil imports is an overwhelming factor in global oil markets-one, which official
Washington refuses to recognize despite criticism from allies in Europe and Japan. U.S. net imports rose from 6.79
million bpd in 1991 to 10.2 million bpd in 2000. Global oil trade, that is the amount of oil that is exported from
one country to another, rose from 33.3 million bpd to 42.6 million bpd over that same period. This means that
America's rising oil imports alone have represented over one third of the increase in oil traded worldwide over the
past ten years-and over 50 percent of OPEC's output gains between the years 1991 to 2000 wound up in the United
States.
MSDI 2008 9
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
US Key OPEC
Surging US demand is the key driver of OPEC and global oil markets
Joe Barnes, research fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Police at Rice, Amy Jaffe, Fellow for Energy Studies
at the Baker Institute, and. Edward L. Morse, Executive Adviser at Hess Energy Trading Company and was
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Energy Policy in 1979–81, Winter 2003/2004, originally
printed in National Interest, http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-01-06.html
Missing from this discussion are any serious measures to address the demand side of our reliance on Middle East
oil. Current U.S. oil demand is about 20 million bpd, of which only 40 percent is produced domestically. Indeed,
the consistent growth in U.S. oil imports is an overwhelming factor in global oil markets-one, which official
Washington refuses to recognize despite criticism from allies in Europe and Japan. U.S. net imports rose from 6.79
million bpd in 1991 to 10.2 million bpd in 2000. Global oil trade, that is the amount of oil that is exported from
one country to another, rose from 33.3 million bpd to 42.6 million bpd over that same period. This means that
America's rising oil imports alone have represented over one third of the increase in oil traded worldwide over the
past ten years-and over 50 percent of OPEC's output gains between the years 1991 to 2000 wound up in the United
States.
MSDI 2008 12
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
***Russian Oil***
MSDI 2008 14
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Russian growth is dependant on oil income (A2: Oil Prevents Real growth)
MSNBC News 9/21/2004 http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6063583/
Another big concern: How much the country's economic boom is tied to high oil prices. Russia is expected to
export nearly $76 billion in oil this year, just under half of all exports. “There's this inherent instability that will
always be existing as long as the economy depends excessively on one or two products,” said Christof Ruhl of World Bank,
Russia. The Russian economy has never grown by more than five percent if oil prices are not rising. So, despite and
expanding middle class, a rise in consumerism and a more diverse economy, the fate of Russia remains closely tied to
the outlook for oil.
***Renewables***
MSDI 2008 24
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
US Modeled
Even small US energy legislation is modeled globally
Paul Roberts (energy expert and writer for Harpers) 2004, The End of Oil, pg. 288
Last and certainly not least on the map of energy politics is the United States. As we have seen, American prowess
in both energy consumption and CO2 emissions is second to none, and the U.S. role as self-appointed policeman
of global energy markets is beyond dispute. What matters equally, however, is the enormous ability the United
States has to influence change in the global energy system. The giant U.S. car market, for example, could be a
catalyst for a cleaner auto industry. Likewise, even a small move by the United States toward improved energy
efficiency in the American power sector could set off a revolution that would utterly remake global energy politics.
Undoubtedly, with its unrivaled economic muscle and technological capabilities, the United States could anchor
any international initiative to reduce CO2 emissions, while using its vast political and diplomatic influence to help
ensure that other nations stuck to their reduction goals.
with differing demands and product requirements. Above all, a progressive energy policy would not only show
trade partners in Japan and Europe that the United States is serious about climate but would give the United States
the leverage it needs to force much-needed changes in the Kyoto treaty. With a carbon program and a serious
commitment to improve efficiency and develop clean-energy technologies, says one U.S. climate expert, “the
United States could really shape a global climate policy. We could basically say to Europe, ‘Here is an American
answer to climate that is far better than Kyoto. Here are the practical steps we’re going to take to reduce emissions,
far more effectively than your cockamamie Kyoto protocol.”’
MSDI 2008 27
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
US Key
International climate change solutions are useless without the US
Paul Roberts, energy expert and writer for Harpers,2004, The End of Oil, pg. 138-9
The more the United States resists a coherent climate policy, the more it becomes clear that the one country that
could make the biggest difference —in reducing emissions but also, and perhaps more important, in using its
wealth and technology to lead the way to a postcarbon energy order — has become the biggest obstacle to any
meaningful progress. Europeans have grown tired of waiting for Washington to join in and have begun imple-
menting Kyoto without the United States. Countries like Germany and England have carbon budgets and are
implementing carbon “caps,” or limits for various industrial sectors, such as utilities and manufacturers. Yet
everyone understands that the programs are of limited value without U.S. participation. America is not only the
biggest CO2 emitter but probably is the only party capable of bankrolling the programs — or persuading China
and India, or holdouts like Russia, to join the process.
MSDI 2008 29
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
***Affirmative Answers***
MSDI 2008 30
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
MSDI 2008 31
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
***Oil Generics***
MSDI 2008 32
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Oil 2ac
Oil producers will keep prices high regardless—increased supply won’t depress prices
Seeking Alpha 12-30-2007, (Jim Kingsdale), http://seekingalpha.com/article/58567-what-the-fundamentals-say-
about-future-oil-prices
All this looks right on paper and it may well happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet that if prices do fall
sometime soon, maybe after the peak winter demand season, exporters will cut back fairly quickly to try to keep
the price above $80 or so. Further, when prices eventually begin to rise again, perhaps in the Spring or Fall of
2008, exporters will then be slow to raise production, having just experienced lower prices. So I think a possible
reduction in the oil price next year would be shallow and would likely be followed by a counter trend leg up that
will probably bring the price well above $100. My thesis is based in part on the hoarding mindset that now
dominates the oil market and is hardly ever discussed. Exporters (read OPEC, particularly KSA, UAE, Kuwait,
and Venezuela) are now addicted to high and rising oil prices. Their ever increasing cash flows from oil have led to
their making huge future capital commitments; they are not willing to see falling oil prices endanger those
commitments. They also know that due to tight global supplies relatively minor production cuts are sufficient to
raise prices. Finally they now believe that oil in the out years will only get more expensive. Thus near term
production cuts will also be rewarded because the oil not sold now can be sold later for more money. In summary,
exporters today have their hands on a hair-trigger for raising the oil price and they will not hesitate to pull it if the
price falls much below $85. I summarize this series of attitudes on the part of oil exporters as the “hoarding
mindset.” Meanwhile global oil production is now at an historically high level but still does not seem to be able to
satisfy demand. The Saudis and the Iraqis have both managed to increase production by roughly 500,000 b/d
helping to cause the 85 mb/d global production plateau that has existed for nearly two years to be eclipsed during
the past few months; production now seems to be running in excess of 87 mb/d as shown in this chart: Yet the
price of oil refuses to sink. Each time oil goes into the high $80s it seems to bounce right back in the face of tight
inventories. U.S. crude oil inventories keep sinking – they are now the lowest in nearly three years. This is a chart
that indicates the tightness of U.S. oil supplies measured in days of inventory:
Oil 2ac
(B) Global Demand
Jad Mouawad. "Rising Demand For Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis." The New York TImes. 9 Nov. 2007.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/09/business/worldbusiness/09oil.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
This is the world’s first demand-led energy shock,” said Lawrence Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation of Washington. Forecasts of
future oil prices range widely. Some analysts see them falling next year to $75, or even lower, while a few project $120 oil. Virtually no one foresees a return to the $20
oil of a decade ago, meaning consumers should brace for an era of significantly higher fuel costs. At the root of the stunning rise in
the price of oil, up 56 percent this year and 365 percent in a decade, is a positive development: an unprecedented boom in the world economy. Demand from
China and India alone is expected to double in the next two decades as their economies continue to expand, with people there buying more cars and moving to cities to seek a way of life long taken for granted in the West. But as
prices rise, the global economy is entering uncharted territory. The increase so far does not appear to be hurting economic growth, but many economists wonder how long that will last. “These prices are too high and will end up
hurting everybody, producers and consumers alike,” said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency. Oil futures closed at $95.46 on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, down nearly 1 percent from the
day before. But the price has become volatile, and many analysts expect the psychologically important $100-a-barrel threshold to be breached sometime in the next few weeks. “Today’s markets feel like the crowds standing up in the
final minutes of a football game shouting: ‘Go! Go! Go!,’” said Daniel Yergin, an oil historian and the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm. “People seem almost more relaxed about $100 than they
were about $60 or $70 oil.” Oil is not far from its historic inflation-adjusted high, reached in April 1980 in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution. At the time, oil jumped to the equivalent of $101.70 a barrel in today’s
money. For most of the 20th century, as it transformed the modern world, oil was cheap and abundant. Throughout the 1990s oil prices averaged $20 a barrel.
, for example,
Even at today’s highs, oil is cheaper than imported bottled water, which would cost $180 a barrel, or milk, at $150 a barrel. “The concern today is over how will the energy sector meet the anticipated growth in demand over the longer
supply side, we’re seeing it is struggling to keep up. That’s the energy challenge.” More than any other country, China represents the scope of that
challenge. As it turned into a global economic behemoth over the last decade, China also became a major energy user. Its economy has grown at a furious pace of about 10 percent a year since the 1990s, lifting nearly 300 million
people out of poverty. But rapid industrialization has come at a price: oil demand has more than tripled since 1980, turning a country that was once self-sufficient into a net oil importer.
India and China are home to about a third of humanity. People there are demanding access to electricity, cars, and consumer goods and can increasingly afford to compete with the West for access to resources. In doing so, the two
Asian giants are profoundly transforming the world’s energy balance. Today, China consumes only a third as much oil as the United States, which burns a quarter of the world’s oil each day. By 2030, India and China together will
While demand is growing fastest abroad, Americans’ appetite for big cars and large
import as much oil as the United States and Japan do today.
houses has pushed up oil demand steadily in this country, too. Europe has managed to rein in oil consumption through a combination of high gasoline taxes, small cars and
efficient public transportation, but Americans have not. Oil consumption in the United States, where gasoline is far cheaper than in Europe, has jumped to 21 million barrels a day this year, from about 17 million barrels in the early
1990s. If the Chinese and Indians consumed as much oil for each person as Americans do, the world’s oil consumption would be more than 200 million barrels a day, instead of the 85 million barrels it is today. No expert regards that
global demand is expected to rise to about 115 million barrels a day by 2030, a level that
level of production as conceivable. More realistically,
is likely to tax the world’s ability to pump more oil out of the ground. Already, the world is running on a limited cushion
of spare capacity; any interruption in supplies, whether from hurricanes or armed conflict, causes prices to spike.
“We don’t have any shock absorbers,” Mr. Goldstein said. For oil companies, high prices have set off a frenzied search for new sources around the world. After a long lull in investments through
most of the 1990s because of low prices, major oil companies have invested billions of dollars to bring in more supplies. The trouble is that these big new developments take a long time, and companies have been hobbled by higher
costs. The cost of drilling rigs, for example, the basic tool of the trade, has doubled in recent years. Analysts say it will take time, but new supplies will eventually work their way to market. Supplies have also been hampered by
political tension in the Persian Gulf, the war in Iraq, devastating hurricanes in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico, production difficulties in Venezuela and violence in Nigeria’s oil-rich province. Many of these geopolitical factors have
Recently, in just nine weeks, oil jumped from $75 to $95 a barrel for little
contributed to a political risk premium variously estimated at $25 to $50 a barrel.
apparent reason. “Fifty-dollar-a-barrel oil seems so far away at this point,” said Thomas Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York, citing a
figure that seemed an impossibly high price for oil only a few years ago. “Oil will stop rising when we see demand destruction. We haven’t seen that
yet.”
(D) OPEC
David Francis. "If Saudis Pump More Oil, Will Gasoline Prices Fall?" The Christain Science Monitor. 3 Jun.
2004. http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0603/p17s01-wogi.html
Why? Because governments crave stability in energy prices. And OPEC has become a welcome though imperfect
regulator of world oil prices. By turning the spigot on and off, the cartel tries to manipulate prices. For example: In
1986 George H. W. Bush, then vice president, asked Saudi Arabia to raise the price of oil, according to Yamani. At the
time, low prices were devastating oil-producing areas in the US, such as Texas. Even in the oil business, few want a
truly free market. They prefer price stability, rather than the volatile prices associated with unmanaged output of a commodity. Major
OPEC producers don't want a price so high it encourages non-OPEC production and real conservation.
MSDI 2008 35
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Oil 2ac
(E) China
CNN. "China Factor Driving Oil Prices." 24 May 2004.
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/05/24/china.oil.demand/index.html
Surging Chinese demand is underpinning the recent spike in the price of oil, figures from the International Energy
Agency (IEA) show. This "China factor" has more bearing on oil prices than the "risk factor" coming from global
tensions, some experts say. While speculative buying on heightened tension in the Middle East is seen as the reason oil
futures touched a 21-year high of $41.85 a barrel in New York earlier this month, oil experts insist the price rises are
driven primarily by demand growth -- about half of which is coming from China. An energy exporter until just a
few years ago, China is now the world's fastest growing major importer of oil.
MSDI 2008 36
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Extend: OPEC
OPEC will keep consumer stocks tight no matter what – this prevents price collapse.
Antoine Halff. (Principal Analyst for the Oil Industry and Market Division of the International Energy
Agency)"Instability in the Gulf and the Threat to Oil Stability." Jerusalem Issue Brief. Institute for Contemporary
Affairs. Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. 20 Oct. 2004. http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief004-6.htm
However, while Middle East producers may have buried the oil hatchet in a political sense, it is clear that OPEC, led
by Saudi Arabia, has embarked on an oil policy designed to maximize export revenues by keeping consumer stocks as
tight as possible, thereby fostering price volatility and global oil market instability. Although Gulf regimes may
have renounced using oil as a political weapon, in an economic sense, Gulf oil policy may have become a greater
source of market instability than in the past.
Extend: China
Chinese and Indian demand will continue to drive up global oil prices.
Jad Mouawad. "Rising Demand For Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis." The New York TImes. 9 Nov. 2007.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/09/business/worldbusiness/09oil.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
With oil prices approaching the symbolic threshold of $100 a barrel, the world is headed toward its third energy
shock in a generation. But today’s surge is fundamentally different from the previous oil crises, with broad and longer-lasting global
implications. Skip to next paragraph Enlarge This Image Hiroke Masuike for The New York Times Traders at the New York Mercantile
Exchange Thursday, where the price for a barrel of crude oil settled at $95.46. Related Times Topics: Oil and Gasoline Just as in the
energy crises of the 1970s and ’80s, today’s high prices are causing anxiety and pain for consumers, and igniting
wider fears about the impact on the economy. Unlike past oil shocks, which were caused by sudden interruptions in
exports from the Middle East, this time prices have been rising steadily as demand for gasoline grows in developed
countries, as hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians climb out of poverty and as other developing economies
grow at a sizzling pace. “This is the world’s first demand-led energy shock,” said Lawrence Goldstein, an
economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation of Washington. Forecasts of future oil prices range widely.
Some analysts see them falling next year to $75, or even lower, while a few project $120 oil. Virtually no one foresees a return to the $20
oil of a decade ago, meaning consumers should brace for an era of significantly higher fuel costs. At the root of the stunning rise in
the price of oil, up 56 percent this year and 365 percent in a decade, is a positive development: an unprecedented boom
in the world economy. Demand from China and India alone is expected to double in the next two decades as their
economies continue to expand, with people there buying more cars and moving to cities to seek a way of life long
taken for granted in the West.
***Russian Oil***
MSDI 2008 43
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Russia 2ac
1.) Russian Growth Effects a small few- Every sector other the oil is doing miserably
MSNBC News 9/20/2004 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056060/
Russia has huge reserves, and exports 6 million barrels a day, second only to Saudi Arabia. But many observers question what
strength the country has beyond natural resources. “The agricultural sector is in bad shape, the industrial sector is
in a bad shape, with the exception of two major cities — Moscow and St. Petersburg — much of the country is still in a mess,”
said Zbigniew Brzezinski of CSIS. In fact, nothing defines Russia now better than the gulf between the haves and the have-
nots. “If you travel 20 miles outside Moscow — with all the Moscow fancy cars an boutiques and all this stuff —
you'll find people are living in the houses without running water, without gas and with problems with the
electricity” said Belyaninov. Not surprisingly, some long for the stability of a Soviet past.
2.) Their David evidence is empirically denied: The Russian economy went through half a
decade of drudgery with no impact
3.) Putin is failing on reforms now- his authoritarianism is preventing effective rule
Russian Independent Internet Digest 9/21/2004 http://putinru.com/news/item/30311.html
But theworrying signs don't stop there. Since Putin's reelection in March, hardly anything has been done to push
promised liberal economic reforms, such as measures to help small businesses by cutting back on red tape. Such moves are
badly needed to diversify and strengthen the Russian economy. "The reforms haven't happened, and there's no
evidence they're about to happen," says Chris Weafer, head of research at Russia's Alfa Bank. To promote liberalizing reforms,
Putin would need the support of private business lobbies to push back against the bureaucrats. But following the attack
on Yukos, business is cowed and its political influence weakened, argues Carnegie's Aslund. He says Putin is becoming ever more dependent
on the security services and their allies at the large state companies and banks.
5.) Low prices prevent ruble appreciation making russian producers more successful
Michael Leylved 2000 http://www.zeromillion.com/econ/lower-prices.html
Also speaking on 29 January, President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser Andrei Illarionov
defied the conventional wisdom that
Russia's continued recovery depends on keeping oil prices high. Instead, Illarionov argued that low oil prices
would now benefit the economy more, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported. Although oil revenues have helped Russia
to pump up its revenues and Central Bank reserves, they have also strengthened the ruble in real terms, posing a
risk for Russian manufacturers and exports. The argument may be hard for Russian consumers to understand, but it is likely to have
a profound effect on their economy this year. While reports have focused on the ruble's falling value in exchange with the
dollar since the start of last year, it has actually risen in comparative value when inflation is taken into account.
Russia 2ac
7.) Turn- lowering prices key to Russian economy- its the only way to solve inflation
St. Petersberg Times 10/23/2001
THE world's biggest problem at the moment is terrorism, and Russia's is falling oil prices. At least this is the impression one gets from reading
the Russian and international press. Russian media and politicians continue to fret about the impact of a global slowdown on oil prices. Worse,
even financial markets have started to worry and the RTS has recently been falling in parallel with the oil price,
mainly amid worries about Russia's ability to meet future debt repayments. This does not reflect much
consideration of the longer term. While high world energy prices such as were experienced in 2000 may be good
for Russian oil majors and natural-gas monopoly Gazprom, in the longer term they are clearly bad for the rest of
Russia. The explanation is simple. At prices around $26 for a barrel of Urals blend, Russia ran a current-account surplus
of around $46 billion (roughly 18 percent of GDP) in 2000. Such an imbalance is huge by any standards and either
induces a rapidly appreciating real exchange rate or forces the Central Bank to print money on a large scale to buy
up the incoming dollars. The former is poison for Russia's recovering industry and the latter leads to sizeable inflation. Choosing
between these two evils, the Central Bank has so far rightly chosen a small dose of the former, and a good dose of the latter. It will, however,
not be able to maintain this course indefinitely without creating a major inflation problem. Hence, lower oil prices would be a great boon for
the Russian economy.
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Russian state budget is calculated assuming oil prices at 23 dollars per barrel
Lutz Kleveman, free-lance journalist (has worked for CNN, Daily Telegraph, Newsweek) and book author, 2003,
The New Great Game, pg. 262-3
Oil interests also partly accounted for the antiwar positions of France, China, and particularly Russia. Energy
companies from all three countries had concluded with the Hussein regime a number of multibillion-dollar oil
contracts, which they feared a new Iraqi government indebted to Washington would declare null and void, only to
offer them to U.S. companies. More strategically, the Russian government abhorred the thought that a “liberated”
Iraq would flood the world market with cheap oil, reducing the market share for Siberian oil. The Russian state
budget, which is financed almost entirely through oil and gas export revenues, has been calculated in expectation
of an oil price of twenty-three dollars per barrel. To make matters worse, high production costs in Siberia could
cause Western oil corporations (whose capital Russia tries to attract) to invest in a reopened Iraq instead. “Our
budget would collapse,” Aleksei Arbatov, deputy chairman of the Duma’s defense committee, described the
consequences.
Russia’s economy is self-sufficient. Only 20% of Russian businesses are connected to oil.
UPI, October 29, 2001.
Though many link the growth of Russia's economy with high oil prices in the world market, Illarionov maintains
that potential drops in oil prices will not affect Russia's performance.
"Only 20 percent of Russia's businesses are connected to the oil sector. For 80 percent of the firms that are in no
way dependent on the export of oil, better conditions will be created," said Illarionov.
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Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Even if high oil prices help in the short term, it’s clear that low oil prices are the best long
term way to save the Russian economy.
The St. Petersburg Times, October 23, 2001
THE world's biggest problem at the moment is terrorism, and Russia's is falling oil prices. At least this is the impression one gets from reading
the Russian and international press. Russian media and politicians continue to fret about the impact of a global slowdown
on oil prices. Worse, even financial markets have started to worry and the RTS has recently been falling in parallel with the oil price, mainly
amid worries about Russia's ability to meet future debt repayments. This does not reflect much consideration of the longer term.
While high world energy prices such as were experienced in 2000 may be good for Russian oil majors and natural-gas
monopoly Gazprom, in the longer term they are clearly bad for the rest of Russia.The explanation is simple. At prices around
$26 for a barrel of Urals blend, Russia ran a current-account surplus of around $46 billion (roughly 18 percent of GDP)
in 2000. Such an imbalance is huge by any standards and either induces a rapidly appreciating real exchange rate or
forces the Central Bank to print money on a large scale to buy up the incoming dollars. The former is poison for
Russia's recovering industry and the latter leads to sizeable inflation. Choosing between these two evils, the Central Bank has
so far rightly chosen a small dose of the former, and a good dose of the latter. It will, however, not be able to maintain this course indefinitely
without creating a major inflation problem. Hence, lower oil prices would be a great boon for the Russian economy.
MSDI 2008 50
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
***Renewables***
MSDI 2008 52
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Renewables 2ac
Security concerns drive renewable development
Gal Luft, executive director of Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 7-5-07,
http://www.iags.org/n050707.htm
To insulate the U.S. further, President Bush seeks to double the size of the American oil reserve in the coming
years. The President also seeks to reduce America's oil dependence through increased efficiency and to shift to
alternative fuels. Applied in unison, these tactics advance the strategic goals of reducing global energy prices,
protecting the West against supply disruptions, and limiting the flow of petrodollars to Tehran. This increased
pressure on the Iranian regime could, over time, generate a much desired regime change. If Washington executes
this strategy with expediency and determination, this outcome could be achieved before Iran becomes a nuclear
power.
A2: Warming
Warming is inevitable – renewable transition cant solve.
Mark Hertsgaard. "It's much too lake to sweat global warming." The San Francisco Chronicle. 13 Feb. 2005.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/02/13/INGP4B7GC91.DTL
At the core of the global warming dilemma is a fact neither side of the debate likes to talk about: It is already too late to prevent
global warming and the climate change it sets off. Environmentalists won't say this for fear of sounding alarmist or defeatist.
Politicians won't say it because then they'd have to do something about it. The world's top climate scientists have been sending
this message, however, with increasing urgency for many years. Since 1988, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, comprised of more than 2,000 scientific and technical experts from around the world, has conducted the most extensive peer-
reviewed scientific inquiry in history. In its 2001 report, the panel said that human-caused global warming had already
begun, and much sooner than expected. What's more, the problem is bound to get worse, perhaps a lot worse, before it gets better.
Last month, the climate change panel's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, upped the ante. Although Pachauri was installed after the
Bush administration forced out his predecessor, Robert Watson, for pushing too hard for action, the accumulation of evidence led Pachauri to
embrace apocalyptic language: "We are risking the ability of the human race to survive," he said. Until now, most public discussion
about global warming has focused on how to prevent it -- for example, by implementing the Kyoto Protocol, which comes into
force internationally (but without U.S. participation) on Wednesday. But prevention is no longer a sufficient option. No matter
how many "green" cars and solar panels Kyoto eventually calls into existence, the hard fact is that a certain amount
of global warming is inevitable.
Even if we stopped pumping all carbon dioxide tomorrow – we would not see change for
100 years.
Mark Hertsgaard. "It's much too lake to sweat global warming." The San Francisco Chronicle. 13 Feb. 2005.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/02/13/INGP4B7GC91.DTL
Contrary to the impression given by some news reports, global warming is not like a light switch that can be
turned off if we simply stop burning so much oil, coal and gas. There is a lag effect of about 50 to 100 years.
That's how long carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas, remains in the atmosphere after it is emitted from
auto tailpipes, home furnaces and industrial smokestacks. So even if humanity stopped burning fossil fuels
tomorrow, the planet would continue warming for decades.
MSDI 2008 54
Louie/Oz Oil Disadvantage
Renewables Fail
Renewables won’t catch on – 4 reasons
(wind; solar) (fossil fuels are getting cheaper, vulnerable to price swings, politically vulnerable, skittish investors)
Paul Roberts, energy expert and writer for Harpers,2004, The End of Oil, pg. 201-2
Other problems become more apparent when we look more closely at cost. Although wind and solar are getting
cheaper, proponents often overlook the fact that their competitors are also getting cheaper and will continue to do
so. Just as fuel cells must compete with a constantly improving internal-combustion engine, wind and solar will
have to battle with gas- and coal-fired technologies that will grow more efficient and less expensive and less
polluting by the year. Renewables are also extremely vulnerable to energy price swings: if gas prices were to come
down, for example, wind and solar power would lose much of their cost advantage. Renewables are politically
vulnerable, as well: if wind or solar were to lose their government subsidies, the current boom in new installations
would come to a screeching halt: the mere threat of such a loss has many potential investors looking elsewhere.
Renewables Fail
Renewable energy sources don’t work well
Robert L. Bradley Jr., president of the Institute for Energy Research, August 27, 1997,
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-280.html
Wind power is currently the environmentalists' favorite source of renewable energy and is thought be the most
likely renewable energy source to replace fossil fuel in the generation of electricity in the 21st century.
Hydropower has lost favor with environmentalists because of the damage it has done to river habitats and
freshwater fish populations. Solar power, at least when relied on for central-station or grid electricity generation, is
not environmentally benign on a total fuel cycle basis and is highly uneconomic, land intensive, and thus a fringe
electric power source for the foreseeable future. Geothermal has turned out to be "depletable," with limited
capacity, falling output, and modest new investment. Biomass is also uneconomic and an air-pollution-intensive
renewable.
The entire world would have to abandon fossil fuels to solve warming
Jerry Taylor, director of natural resource studies at the Cato Institute, “CLOUDS OVER KYOTO
THE DEBATE OVER GLOBAL WARMING,” Winter 1998, http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv21n1/21-
1f6.pdf, accessed 9/10/02
The reason is that, according to all observers, actually stopping any further global warming—assuming the median
predictions of present climate models—would require a 70 percent reduction of present emissions, roughly the
equivalent of completely abandoning the use of fossil fuels. That, according to Jerry Mahlman, director of the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton, “might take another thirty Kyotos over the next century.”
Indeed, environmentalists are frequently quoted as saying that, ultimately, society will need to be completely
restructured around the objective of energy efficiency and sustainability, the economic and political costs of which
we can only imagine. Unless the American people are prepared to see that journey to its completion, there is little
point in even bothering to sign the Kyoto agreement because, in and of itself, it will make virtually no difference
to our planetary climate.
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