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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Reading Assignments: Textbook: Read Chapter 6.2 (pg. 272 - 283)
Learning Objectives:
How to determine if a probability experiment is a binomial experiment. How to find binomial probabilities using the binomial probability formula. How to find binomial probabilities using calculator. How to find the mean and standard deviation of a binomial probability distribution. How to use binomial distribution to solve business problems.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
There are many probability experiments for which the results of each trial can be reduced to two outcomes: success or failure. Probability experiments such as these are called binomial experiment.
a basket ball player attempts a free throw, he or she either makes the basket or does not. A product is classified as either acceptable or not acceptable by the quality control department. A company makes a profit or not. You win a lottery or not. You survive a surgery or not. A sales calls results in the customer either purchasing the product or not purchasing the product. A jury may return a guilty or not guilty verdict.
Dr. Raphael Djabatey 3
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution function with many every day applications. A binomial experimental process must satisfy the following five conditions: 1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials set forth in advance. 2. There are two possible outcomes in each trial result - success or failure. 3. The probability of a success and failures remains the same for each trial. 4. The trials are independent. The outcome of one trial has no effect on subsequent trials. 5. The random variable (x) is the result of counts of the number of success trials.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Probability of Success p = probability of a success P(S) = p
n x p q p(x)
= = = = =
the fixed number of trials. specific number of success in n trials. probability of success in one of the n trials. probability of failure in one of the n trials. probability of getting exactly x successes among the n trials.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
You took a test which consists of 20 multiple-choice questions. Each question has five choice answers but only one correct answer. What is the probability that you will select correct answer to 14 questions.
Probability of Success p = probability of a success P(S) = 0.20 Probability of Failure P(F) = 1 0.20 = 0.80 q = probability of a failure
n x p
= the fixed number of trials (20). = specific number of success in n trials (14). = probability of success in one of the n trials (0.20).
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Sampling without replacement involves dependent events, which violates the second requirement in the preceding definition. However, it is a rule of thumb that if the sample is very small relative to the population size, the difference in results will be negligible if we treat the trials as independent, even though they are actually dependent. When sampling without replacement, the events can be considered to be independent if the sample size is no more than 5% of the population size. There are three methods for finding probabilities in a binomial experiment. The first method involves calculations using the binomial probability formula. The second method involves the use of binomial distribution table. The third method involves of statistical software or calculator.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
FORMULA METHOD:
P(X) = n! (n - X)! X! (px) (1 - p)n-x
CALCULATOR METHOD:
Select STAT menu Press F5 to select DIST Press F5 to select BINM Press F1 to select Bpd For Data, press F2 to select VAR to input a variable For X, enter the value For Numtrial, enter the total sample size For p, enter the probability of success Press EXE
Dr. Raphael Djabatey 8
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that three of these cards will contain an error. Binomial Distribution: P(X) = n! px (1 - p) n-x X!(n - X)!
8! (0.10)3(1 - 0.10)8 - 3 3!(8 - 3)! 8! 3!5! = (8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) (0.001)(0.5905) (3)(2)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 0.0331 or 3.31%
Dr. Raphael Djabatey 9
=3 =8 = 0.10
P(1)
(0.10)3(0.90)5
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that three of these cards will contain an error.
=3 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
10
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that only one card will contain an error.
=1 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
11
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that none of the cards will contain an error.
=0 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
12
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
There are five daily flights from Toronto to New York. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.20. What is the probability that two of the flights will arrive late today?
=2 =5 = 0.20
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
13
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A warranty record shows the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair within first year of purchase is 0.15. If a sample of 5 new cars is selected, what is the probability that
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD
Var (X) Prob.
Using LIST
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 =5 = 0.15
Data
Press
F1 for LIST
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Dr. Raphael Djabatey
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A warranty record shows the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair within first year of purchase is 0.15. If a sample of 5 new cars is selected, what is the probability that
1 2 3 4 5 none will need a warranty repair? at least three will need a warranty repair? at most two will need a warranty repair? all will need a warranty repair? = 0.4437 0.0244 + 0.0022 + 0.0001 = 0.0267 0.04437 + 0.3915 + 0.1382 = 0.9734 = 0.0001 0.1382 + 0.0244 + 0.0022 = 0.1647
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
15
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A warranty record shows the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair within first year of purchase is 0.15. If a sample of 5 new cars is selected, what is the probability that
1 2 3 4 three will not need a warranty repair three or more will not need a warranty repair? less than two will not need a warranty repair? all will not need a warranty repair? = 0.1382 0.1382 + 0.3915 + 0.4437 = 0.9734 0.0001 + 0.0022 = 0.0023 = 0.4437
Using LIST
Variable (X) Sample Size (n) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 =5 = 0.85
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
16
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that 50 or fewer drivers are wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 250 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that less than 48 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2 ..47 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that at least 45 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 45, 46, 47.80 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
44 80 0.60
19 Dr. Raphael Djabatey
OR
78.85%
10
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that more than 45 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 46, 47, 48.80 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
45 80 0.60
20 Dr. Raphael Djabatey
OR
71.75%
10
11
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that at most 30 drivers are not wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, . 30 = 80 = 0.40
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
30 80 0.40
21 Dr. Raphael Djabatey
Answer = 0.3687
OR
36.87%
12
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that fewer than 30 drivers are not wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, . 29 = 80 = 0.40
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
29 80 0.40
22 Dr. Raphael Djabatey
Answer = 0.2861
OR
28.61%
11
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A statistics quiz consists of 50 multiple-choice questions, each with 4 possible answers. For a student who makes random guesses for all of the answers:
Find the probability that the student will get less than 16 correct answers.
Using Cumulative Function
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 15 = 50 = 0.25
0.8369
Find the probability that the student will get at least 20 correct answers.
Using Cumulative Function
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 19 = 50 = 0.25
1 0. 9861 = 0.0139
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A statistics quiz consists of 50 multiple-choice questions, each with 4 possible answers. For a student who makes random guesses for all of the answers:
Var (X) BPD BCP
= 0.25 =5 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4
less than three of the answers are correct three or less of the answers are correct ? at most one of the answers are correct? at least four of the answers are correct?
12
15
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
There are five daily flights from Toronto to New York. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.20.
What is the probability that two flights will arrive late today? What is the expected (mean) number of late flights? What is the standard deviation?
20.48%
16
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A statistics quiz consists of 10 multiple-choice questions, each with 5 possible answers. For someone who makes random guesses for all of the answers, find the probability of passing if the minimum passing grade is 60%.
0.007
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.20 = 10 = 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
A quality control manager of a meat packaging plant has determined that 15 of every 50 meat packages have defective labels. If the meat packaging equipment processes 8 meat packages at any given time. What are the chances that more than four meat packages will have a defective label?
0.058
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.30 = 8 = 5, 6, 7, 8
26
13
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A study of weight loss between male and female shows that 40% of females lost 5 pounds in the first month of a weight loss program as compared with 60% of males who lost the same amount of weight in the first month. Suppose five females are selected, what is the probability that only one female will lose 5 pounds in the first month?
0.259
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.40 = 5 = 1
Suppose six males are selected, what are the chances that less than three males will lose 5 pounds in the first month?
0. 179
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.60 = 6 = 0, 1, 2
27
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