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Global Research

Mid-Cap Hotels Restaurants & Leisure

Equity Malaysia

Genting Malaysia (GENM)

OW: Competition less than expected
FY10 NPAT down 4% Impact from Singapore less than expected Maintain OW, lower TP to MYR4.13 from MYR4.21

Overweight
Target price (MYR) Share price (MYR) Potential return (%)
Performance Absolute (%) Relative^ (%) ^Index RIC Bloomberg Market cap (USDm) Market cap (MYRm) Enterprise value (MYRm) Free float (%) 1M -2.6 -0.3 3M -2.9 -4.4

4.13 3.31 24.7

12M 20.4 0.9

KLSE Composite Index GTMS.KL GENM MK 6,434 19,582 16,271 51

GENM has reported FY10 NPAT down 4% to MYR1276m from MYR1323m in FY09 and vs our forecast of -9% at MYR1199m. Malaysia shows competition and market depth. Competition from the opening of the Singapore casinos is evident in the slowing revenue growth and lower operating margins at Resorts World Genting. However, the impact is less than we had expected, which shows the depth of the Southeast Asia/regional gaming market. Inflationary pressure is being seen in increasing staff costs, which reflect the drain of talent to Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines (Resorts World Manila etc.). UK operations weaker. UK operations started poorly suffering a low win rate in VIP for the 2.5 months of ownership. The UK economy is weak, and this is being felt more in the provincial areas than in London. US project a little later. The Aqueduct operations in New York are still under construction although we remain uncertain on the exact opening date. We had previously assumed 2Q11, but that now appears somewhat aggressive. We now assume late 2H11 opening. We maintain our Overweight rating on Genting Malaysia although have reduced our target price to MYR4.13 per share from 4.21. Our target price is based on an average of SOP, DCF and DDM valuations. We have lowered our 2011-2012 earnings estimates slightly, which has caused the 1.9% reduction in the average valuation and target price. Potential positive catalysts could include participation in further acquisitions or greenfield casino development in other jurisdictions, and improved earnings from either the UK or the US operations. Risks to our rating and estimates could include impaired earnings in Malaysia from greater regional competition (Singapore/Macau), lower earnings growth in the UK and the US, and further acquisitions or investments that provide poor returns.

24 February 2011
Sean Monaghan* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6239 0655 seanmonaghan@hsbc.com.sg

View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch

MICA (P) 142/06/2010 MICA (P) 193/04/2010

Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

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Financials & valuation

Financial statements Year to 12/2010a 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013e Valuation data Year to EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/IC PE* P/NAV FCF yield (%) Dividend yield (%)
*Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)

12/2010a 3.2 8.5 1.9 14.8 1.7 8.1 1.9

12/2011e 2.2 6.9 1.8 12.2 1.6 9.7 2.1

12/2012e 1.8 5.6 1.6 10.3 1.4 11.3 2.4

12/2013e 1.7 5.2 1.5 10.0 1.3 11.6 2.5

Profit & loss summary (MYRm) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation & amortisation Operating profit/EBIT Net interest PBT HSBC PBT Taxation Net profit HSBC net profit Cash flow summary (MYRm) Cash flow from operations Capex Cash flow from investment Dividends Change in net debt FCF equity 1,554 0 -566 -337 3,343 1,542 1,847 0 0 -373 -800 1,847 2,145 0 0 -442 -783 2,145 2,200 0 0 -456 -959 2,200 5,333 2,024 -273 1,751 85 1,732 1,732 -455 1,276 1,276 7,232 2,359 -374 1,984 40 2,024 2,024 -532 1,492 1,492 8,543 2,750 -395 2,355 45 2,400 2,400 -631 1,769 1,769 8,786 2,820 -397 2,423 50 2,473 2,473 -650 1,823 1,823

Price relative
4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 2009 2010 2011 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 2012
Genting Malaysia Berhad Source: HSBC Rel to KLSE COMPOSITE INDEX

Balance sheet summary (MYRm) Intangible fixed assets Tangible fixed assets Current assets Cash & others Total assets Operating liabilities Gross debt Net debt Shareholders funds Invested capital 3,145 6,756 4,379 2,977 14,784 2,128 1,048 -1,929 11,609 9,176 3,145 6,104 4,502 3,075 14,334 1,379 346 -2,728 12,608 9,296 3,145 6,638 5,310 3,858 15,676 1,536 346 -3,511 13,794 9,699 3,145 7,038 6,294 4,817 17,060 1,699 346 -4,471 15,015 9,961

Note: Priced at close of 23 February 2011

Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to Y-o-y % change Revenue EBITDA Operating profit PBT HSBC EPS Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) ROIC ROE ROA EBITDA margin Operating profit margin Net debt/equity Net debt/EBITDA (x) Per share data (MYR) EPS reported (diluted) HSBC EPS (diluted) DPS NAV 0.22 0.22 0.06 1.96 0.27 0.27 0.07 2.13 0.32 0.32 0.08 2.33 0.33 0.33 0.08 2.53 0.8 19.7 11.7 9.8 37.9 32.8 -16.6 -1.0 0.8 15.8 12.3 10.2 32.6 27.4 -21.6 -1.2 0.9 18.3 13.4 11.8 32.2 27.6 -25.5 -1.3 0.9 18.2 12.7 11.1 32.1 27.6 -29.8 -1.6 6.8 0.3 0.2 -1.9 -3.2 35.6 16.5 13.3 16.9 21.3 18.1 16.6 18.7 18.6 18.4 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.8 12/2010a 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013e

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FY10 results
Revenue up slightly on forecast due to higher VIP win rate

FY10 revenue was up 7% to MYR5.33bn vs our Forecast of +5% to MYR5260. Resorts World Genting (RWG) was +3% (excluding the high win rate on VIP revenue was +1%) UK casinos purchased from GENS in 4Q10 contributed 2.5 months of rev MYR188m, (management says poor win rate in 4Q10)
EBITDA was largely flat

FY10 EBITDA was up 1% to MYR2,024m vs our forecast of MYR2,020m. RWG EBITDA was down 1% due to higher labour costs and higher marketing expenses UK contributed MYR18.3m in EBITDA in the 2.5 months of ownership
NPAT slightly better than our forecast

NPAT was down 4% to MYR1,276m from MYR1,323m in 2009 and vs our forecast of -9% at MYR1,199m
Dividend payout up slightly

GENM has declared a full year net dividend of 6.3cps vs 5.5cps in pcp. Dividend payout ratio is 28% for 2010 vs 24% in 2009 and the indicative average payout ratio of 25%.
Key takeaway: What does this all mean?

Malaysia/Singapore market Competition from the opening of the Singapore casinos is evident in the slowing revenue growth and lower operating margins at Resorts World Genting (Genting Highlands). However, the impact is less than we had expected, which shows the depth of the Southeast Asia/regional gaming market. Inflationary pressure is being seen in increasing staff costs, which reflect the drain of talent to Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines (Resorts World Manila, etc). UK operations UK operations started poorly, suffering a low win rate in VIP for the 2.5 months of ownership. The UK economy is weak, and this is being felt more in the provincial areas than in London. London is where the VIPs typically go to (eg Crockfords et al) and this is where the low win rate would have come from. US project The Aqueduct operations in New York are still under construction although we didnt get a clear idea on the opening date. We had assumed 2Q11, but that now appears somewhat aggressive given last nights call. Maybe a late 2H11 opening is more achievable. These operations eventually involve a Video Lottery Terminal (slots) operation of over 4,000 machines.

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Figure 1: Genting Malaysia income statement (MYRm except per share data) 2009 Malaysia Highlands Property Other Total UK US Total EBITDA Malaysia Highlands Property Other Total UK US Other Total Dep & amort Non-op items EBIT Net interest PBT Income tax Minority interests NPAT Growth EPS Growth
Source: HSBC

2010 5,068 24 52 5,145 188 0 5,333

2011e 5,119 35 55 5,209 943 1,081 7,232

2012e 5,221 38 57 5,317 990 2,237 8,543

4,925 4 63 4,992 0 0 4,992

1,996 4 19 2,019 0 0 0 2,019 -272 -60 1,687 78 1,765 -441 0 1,324 109% 23.2 110%

1,980 15 34 2,029 18 -24 0 2,024 -273 -104 1,646 85 1,732 -455 0 1,276 -4% 22.4 -3%

1,999 10 18 2,027 153 179 0 2,359 -374 0 1,984 40 2,024 -532 0 1,492 17% 27.2 21%

2,038 11 19 2,068 160 522 0 2,750 -395 0 2,355 45 2,400 -631 0 1,769 19% 32.2 18%

Valuation and target price

We have an overweight rating on Genting Malaysia and have reduced our target price to MYR4.13 per share from 4.21. Our target price is based on an average of three valuation methodologies: sum of parts (SOP), discounted cash flow (DCF) and dividend discount model (DDM) valuation methodologies. We have reduced our EBITDA forecasts for GENM to reflect higher costs at Resorts World Genting (staff and marketing) and lower earnings in the UK (exchange rate plus growth), and we have deferred the expected opening of the US operations by one quarter. These adjustments have resulted in a 1.9% reduction in average valuation and target price. Under HSBCs research model, a non-volatile Malaysian stock with a potential return of 2-12% merits a Neutral rating. Our target price implies a potential return of 26.9%; therefore we rate the shares Overweight.

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Figure 2: Genting Malaysia sum of the parts valuation, Discounted cash flow valuation and DDM valuation Sum of parts Exchange Gaming Malaysia UK US Genting HK Total Other Total Less: Net debt Debt Cash Total Net asset value Shares in issue Net value per share Discount Target price Discounted cash flow EBITDA Less: capex Op free cash flow Income tax Total DCF value Cash flow Terminal value Total Less: Borrowings Cash Net Net assets Shares in issue (m) Value per share Ke Kd WACC DDM valuation Dividends Growth Ke DDM valuation LT div growth Dividends 2011-15e Terminal value Share valuation
Source: HSBC

Price Issued (local) shares (m)

Holding

Ex-rate

2011e EBITDA (MYR m) 1,999 153 179

Multiple Valuation (x) (MYR m) 8.0 x 8.0 x 8.0 x 15,991 1,222 1,431 1,805 20,449 600 21,049

Share 76% 6% 7% 9% 97% 3% 100%

HK

3.01

7,771

19.3%

2.50

2,331

1,048 2,977 -1,929 22,978 5,688 4.04 2% 4.13

2011e 2,359 -684 1,675 -532 1,143 5,873 15,880 21,753 1,048 2,977 -1,929 23,682 5,688 4.16 10% 8% 10%

2012e 2,750 -929 1,821 -631 1,190 27% 73% 100%

2013e 2,820 -797 2,023 -650 1,373

2014e 2,893 -494 2,399 -670 1,729

2015e 2,968 -532 2,436 -690 1,745

2011e 6.81 8% 10%

2012e 8.06 18%

2013e 8.28 3%

2014e 8.51 3%

2015e 8.74 3%

0.00% 0.33 0.90 1.24

3.00% 0.33 1.30 1.63

7.50% 0.33 3.84 4.18

8.00% 0.33 4.91 5.24

9.00% 0.33 11.05 11.38

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Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Sean Monaghan

Important disclosures
Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis

HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: (1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12-month horizon; and (2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0- to 3-month horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below. This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this website. HSBC believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.

Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings

HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the risk-free rate for that stocks domestic, or as appropriate, regional market and the relevant equity risk premium established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the implied return must exceed the required return by at least 5ppt over the next 12 months (or 10ppt for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5ppt over the next 12 months (or 10ppt for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review, expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change. *A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However, stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past months average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5ppt past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change.

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Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 24 February 2011, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Overweight (Buy) 49% (23% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Neutral (Hold) Underweight (Sell) 37% 14% (21% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) (21% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities

Genting Malaysia Berhad (GTMS.KL) share price performance MYR vs HSBC rating history Recommendation & price target history From Underweight Neutral N/A Neutral Target Price Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4 To Neutral N/A Neutral Overweight Value 2.75 2.90 2.89 4.21 Date 09 July 2008 17 September 2009 04 November 2009 18 November 2010 Date 09 July 2008 04 November 2009 16 July 2010 18 November 2010

5 4 3 2 1 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11

Source: HSBC

Source: HSBC

HSBC & Analyst disclosures

None of the below disclosures applies to any of the stocks featured in this report. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 HSBC* has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. As of 31 January 2011 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking-securities related services. As of 31 December 2010, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenue. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. HSBC Legal Entities* are listed in the Disclaimer below.

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Additional disclosures
1 2 3 This report is dated as at 24 February 2011. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 23 February 2011, unless otherwise indicated in the report. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBCs analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBCs Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.

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Disclaimer
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