ISOPE 2010 Conference

Beijing, China 24 June 2010

Dynamic Response of Jackup Units Re-evaluation of SNAME 5-5A Four Methods

Xi Ying Zhang, Zhi Ping Cheng, Jer-Fang Wu and Chee Chow Kei

ABS
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Main Contents

Background Multi-DOF method Four methods to predict MPME and DAF Random seed effect Concluding remarks

Background
Dynamic response DAF = Static response

DAF stands for dynamic amplification factor The natural periods of jackup is 5-15s. It may be at or close to wave excitation period, hence the responses of jackup units may be amplified significantly. Focus will be on DAF for base shear (BS) and overturning moment (OTM)

DAF vs in SDOF System

- Damping ratio

w = n

<1

For a SDOF system vibrating in sinusoidal waves, DAF can be obtained as follows

DAF = 1/{(1-2)2+(2 )2}

Dynamic Effect on Jackup

Dynamic effect needs to be considered (SNAME) when:

0.9 T w Tn 1.1 T w ;or DAF > 1.05

Influence of dynamic effect:

Magnify the hydrodynamic load Lead to greater sway, then more P- effect

SNAME Dynamic Analysis Methods

SDOF model with deterministic excitation

Simple but inaccurate (mainly for estimation of DAF)

SDOF model with random excitation

Simple with non-Gaussian effects, not prevalent

MDOF model with deterministic excitation

No non-Gaussian effect, widely use for jacket design

MDOF model with random excitation

Most complicated one, widely use for jackup design

Areas of Investigation

Main Contents

Background Multi-DOF method Four methods to predict MPME and DAF Random seed effect Concluding remarks

Procedures to Obtain MPME

PHASE 4 PHASE 3 PHASE 2 PHASE 1

Construct analysis (equivalent) model with respect to the P- effect

Generate a random wave surface history and check the validity

Carry out the non-linear dynamic analysis in time domain with the created random wave surface history

Post process the simulation data to get the most probable maximum extreme (MPME) and DAF

Construct Equivalent Model

Leg stiffness

Cross sectional area Moment of inertia Shear area Torsional moment of inertia

P- effect-negative virtual spring Pg / L

Pg = weight of hull + leg above hull. L = vertical distance from spudcan to hull CoG

Model the mass Hydrodynamic loading Damping Calibrate the combined model with detailed model
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Equivalent Leg Model

Build detailed leg model, fix it at 4 bay below lower guide

The simplified leg can save computation time, while loosing accuracy within a reasonable range

Apply unit load (6 DOF) on the spudcan end and obtained displacements Compute the leg stiffness properties of detailed leg using unit load and corresponding displacements
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Equivalent Leg Model

The hydrodynamic properties of the equivalent leg can be derived by empirical formula:
C De = [sin 2 i + cos 2 i sin 2 i ]1.5 C Di Di li De s
Ae =
De = ( Di2 li ) / s

C Me Ae = Ae C Mei

Al
s

i i

C Mei = [1 + (sin 2 i + cos 2 i sin 2 i )(C Mi 1)]

Ai li Ae s

li = S = Di = CDi =

length of member i length of one bay diameter of member i CD of member i

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Natural Periods of Jackup Unit

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Random Sea States

Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum is used to generate the random wave surface profile Check validity for sea state used

Satisfy the Gaussianity of the sea surface

Correct mean value Standard deviation within Hs/4 plus minus 1% -0.03 < skewness < 0.03 2.9 < kurtosis < 3.1 Maximum crest elevation = (Hs/4)[2xln(N)]0.5 error within minus 5% to plus 7.5%; N is number of cycle Number of wave components > 200 Component of division with equal energy, mean smaller pace at peak frequency First 100 second to be removed to get rid of transient effect Time step < min { Tz / 20 , Tn / 20 }
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Other miscellaneous requirement:

Random Sea States

Wave height = 26.0 ft Dom period =14.1s

Sample of sea surface history

Wave spectrum type PM

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Main Contents

Background Multi-DOF method Four methods to predict MPME and DAF Random seed effect Concluding remarks

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Prediction of MPME

Most probable maximum extreme (MPME) has 63% chance of being exceeded by the maximum of any three hour storm

This level is reached by one in thousand peaks on average

Random seed is used to define the random phase angle of each wave components that are combined to create a simulated time history There are 4 methods used for prediction of MPME

D/I method: 60 minutes, 3 runs with different Cd, Cm, (study used 5 random seeds); (SNAME recommends one random seed) Weibull method: 60 minutes, 5 random seeds Gumbel method: 180 minutes, 10 random seeds W/J method: 180 minutes, (study used 10 random seeds); (SNAME recommends one random seed)

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Drag/Inertial Parameter Method

With the obtained RD, RD ,RS, RS, RI, RI, DAF can be derived as below RS RS RI RD RD

DAF1= RD / RS CRI=[2ln(1000)]0.5 = 3.7 R= (RD2 - RS2 - RI2) / (2 RS RI) CRS to be determined

(MPMRD)2= (CRSRS)2 + ( CRDRD)2 +2* R(CRSRS) ( CRDRD)

MPMRS= CRSRS

CRD= MPMRD / RD MPMERD= MPMRD + RD

DAF2= MPMRD / MPMRS MPMERS= MPMRS + RS

DAF3= MPMERD / MPMERS

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Drag/Inertial Parameter Method

It is assumed that a standard process can be calculated by splitting it into two parts (static and inertial) with a correlation between the two
( MPM Dyn ) 2 = ( MPM Sta ) 2 + ( MPM Ine ) 2 + 2 R ( MPM Sta ) ( MPM Ine )

MPMI
n

MPM
D

MPM

The quasi-static analysis is achieved by simply set mass and damping zero; while the dynamic one account them fully

Time domain analysis procedure

Perform quasi-static time history analysis to get RS(t) Get inertial response from RI(t)= RD(t)- RS(t) Get RS, RS by statistical analysis Get RI, RI by statistical analysis Get RD, RD by statistical analysis Perform dynamic time history analysis to get RD(t)

St

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Weibull Fitting Method

Weibull distribution is fitted against the maxima values R F ( R, , , ) = 1 exp[( ) ] F is the probability of non-exceedance = scaling; = slope; = shift

Nonlinear data fitting, Levenber-Marquardt method, is to be used to produce the value of , and MPM is the value of R when F ( R, , , ) = 1
N max 1 3hour simulation duration

MPME value is obtained by MPM + Repeat above procedure for all response parameters

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Weibull Fitting
Curve Fitting
1.2000

1.0000

Cumulative Density

0.8000

0.6000

Original Data Predicted Data

0.4000

0.2000

0.0000 0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

2.0000

2.5000

3.0000

3.5000

4.0000

4.5000

5.0000

Standardized Response

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Range of Data for Weibull Method

SNAME 5-5A suggests removing bottom 20% of the observed cycles in curve fitting. How about the top range?
20%-100% OTM BS 2.9582 1.9946 3.0354 2.0649 2.9796 2.0956 2.7440 1.7579 3.0055 2.0277 2.7331 1.8241 2.5810 1.9919 2.6872 1.8557 2.8175 1.7076 3.3647 2.1996 2.8906 1.9520 0.2262 0.1588 20%-98% OTM BS 2.9598 1.9953 3.0415 2.0688 2.9867 2.1020 2.7402 1.7539 3.0080 2.0296 2.7337 1.8234 2.5920 2.0012 2.6839 1.8534 2.8274 1.7100 3.3674 2.2010 2.8940 1.9539 0.2263 0.1607 20%-95% OTM BS 2.9323 1.9887 3.0603 2.0889 2.9787 2.1084 2.7270 1.7402 3.0221 2.0428 2.7204 1.8188 2.6146 2.0434 2.6443 1.8252 2.8635 1.7171 3.3665 2.2013 2.8930 1.9575 0.2298 0.1689 20%-90% OTM BS 2.8528 1.9250 3.1177 2.1683 3.0130 2.1599 2.7043 1.7164 3.0587 2.0591 2.6830 1.7851 2.6569 2.1395 2.5853 1.7474 2.9892 1.7272 3.3413 2.1905 2.9002 1.9619 0.2435 0.2025 20%-85% OTM BS 2.7890 1.8777 3.3065 2.3338 3.0051 2.2818 2.6190 1.6419 3.0611 2.0415 2.5946 1.7306 2.7169 2.2231 2.4472 1.6020 3.1290 1.6948 3.3534 2.1925 2.9022 1.9620 0.3133 0.2852

Seed 1 19 22 43 66 73 80 99 280 320 AVE SD

The range of 20%-100% or 20%-98% generates more consistent DAFs with smaller standard deviation
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Gumbel Fitting Method

Extract maximum (and minimum) value for each of ten 3-hour response signal A Gumbel distribution is fitted via 10 maxima/minima. Both maximum likelihood method or method of moment (preferable) can yield and

F ( x) = exp[ exp(
3h

F3h(MPME)=

1-0.63 = 0.37

)]

Because the MPME in three hours will have probability of exceeding 0.63

The MPME then can be calculated by:

MPME = ln ln F 3h ( MPME ) = ln{ ln[0.37]}

{ [

]}

A similar procedure will generate the quasi-static MPME and so the DAF of overturning moment and base shear can be obtained

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Gumbel Fitting Method

Items
Dynamic OTM Static OTM Dynamic BS Static BS DAF for OTM DAF for BS

Moment fitting
526243.76 190671.82 5266.01 2659.70 2.760 1.980

k MLE Diff(%)
0.39% 0.22% 0.12% 0.04% 0.61% 0.08%

Moment fitting
26336.50 12493.89 241.29 196.36

MLE
35679.46 11162.27 269.92 202.67

Diff(%)
26.19% 11.93% 10.61% 3.12%

524183.16 191088.95 5259.65 2658.73 2.743 1.978

MPME = ln ln F 3h ( MPME ) = ln{ ln[0.37]}

{ [

]}

MPME is only related to , hence a moment fitting solution can be used for Gumbel fitting to replace the maximum likelihood method, which will simplify the calculation procedure

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Winterstein/Jensen Method

It is assumed that a non-Gaussian process can be expressed as polynomial of zero mean, narrow band Gaussian process R(U) = C0 + C1U + C2U2 +C3U3

The same relation exist between MPME of the 2 process. Since MPME of Gaussian process U is known, the MPME of R can be found if coefficient C0 ,C1 , C2 and C3 are determined. The C1 , C2 and C3 can be obtained by equations below: 2 33 44 = C12 + 6C1C3 + 2C22 + 15C32 = C2(6C12 + 8C22 + 72C1C3 + 270C32) = 60C24 + 3C14 + 10395C34 + 60C12C22 + 4500C22C32 + 630C12C32 + 936C1C22C3 +3780C1C33 + 60C13C3

The following statistical quantities needed: mean of the process 3 skewness standard deviation 4 kurtosis
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Winterstein/Jensen Method

It is assumed that a non-Gaussian process can be expressed as polynomial of zero mean, narrow band Gaussian process R(U) = C0 + C1U + C2U2 +C3U3

Newton-Raphson method could be utilized to solve the set of equations The initial guess value can be: c1 = k(1-3h4) c2 = kh3 c3 = kh4

h3 = 3 /[4 + 2 {1 + 1.5( 4 3)}] h4 = [ {1 + 1.5( 4 3)} 1] / 18 k = [1 + 2h32 + 6h42 ]1 / 2

c0 = k h3

The C0 , can be figured out by the MPME value is RMPME = c0 + c1U1 + c2U2 + c3U3

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Main Contents

Background Multi-DOF method Four methods to predict MPME and DAF Random seed effect Concluding remarks

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Configuration of Two Rigs

Item Length overall (ft) Breadth overall (ft) Water depth (ft) Weight (kips) Wave height (ft) Wave period (s) Current (knots) Rig 1 210 200 300 25,000 50 15 1 Rig 2 240 208 350 27,000 48 14 1

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Comparisons of Natural Periods

Rig 1 Mode Detail Model (s) 12.49 11.98 11.46 Combined Model (s) 12.73 12.18 11.65 Detail Model (s) 11.12 10.95 10.22

Rig 2 Combined Model (s) 11.32 11.15 10.36

Diff. (%)

Diff. (%)

1 2 3

1.90 1.66 1.68

1.84 1.85 1.41

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Random Seed Effect: Rig 1

seed
43 99 80 320 73 66 22 1 19 280 Statistical Properity

DEGREE
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AVE SD

W/J METHOD
OTM 2.6775 2.8156 2.3215 3.1979 2.5662 2.6631 2.8239 2.9672 2.8881 2.6590 2.7580 0.2391 BS 1.8827 1.9379 1.6221 32% 2.1559 1.7856 1.8345 1.9093 2.0371 1.9426 1.8702 1.8978 0.1427

WEIBULL METHOD
OTM 2.7402 2.6839 2.5920 3.3674 2.7337 3.0080 2.9867 2.9598 3.0415 2.8274 2.8940 0.2263 BS 1.7539 1.8534 2.0012 2.2010 1.8234 2.0296 2.1020 1.9953 2.0688 1.7100 1.9539 0.1607

28%

Findings

Both W/J and Weibull methods have significant variance in DAF SNAME 5-5A recommends:

For Weibull method, run number 5; For W/J method, run number = 1 SNAME recommended run number may not be sufficient
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Random Seed Effect: Rig 1

DAF for Overturning Moment
3.5

2.5

3.0

2.5

DI 0 Degree DI 30 Degree DI 60 Degree W/J 0 Degree W/J 30 Degree W/J 60 Degree

DAF for Base Shear

2.0

2.0 1 2 3 4 5

1.5 1 2 3 4 5

Random Seed

Random Seed

Findings

Compared with W/J method, drag/inertia method is not sensitive to the selection of random seeds and DAFs are pretty stable

Why?
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Random Seed Effect: Rig 1

Dynamic overturning moment 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1

Static Overturning Moment 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

Mean/10^4 SD/10^5 Skewness*100 Kurtosis

Mean/10^4 SD/10^5 Skewness*100 Kurtosis

3 Random Seed

3 Random Seed

Because:

Drag/inertia method is only related to mean value and standard deviation (SD) W/J method is related to mean value, standard deviation (SD), skewness and kurtosis. It can be seen that the skewness and kurtosis have not stabilized in the 3 hour run. Therefore a much longer duration would be required to obtain stable results for W/J method.
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Weibull Method: Rig 1

3.5 3 2.5
3 hour (10 seeds) 1 hour (5 seeds)

3.5
10 seeds

3.0 2.5

5 seeds to max DAF 5 seeds to min DAF

DAFs

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

DAFs

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

OTM

BS

OTM

BS

Findings

Five 1-hour runs (SNAME) may not yield comparable results to 10 3-hour runs Among 10 3-hour runs, the difference between maximum and minimum DAF from 5 seeds is not negligible

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Main Contents

Background Multi-DOF method Four methods to predict MPME and DAF Random seed effect Concluding remarks

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Concluding Remarks
D/I Method Running Period and Number Effect of Random Seed
60 minutes, 3 runs with different Cd, Cm

Weibull Method
60 minutes, runs number 5

Gumbel Method
180 minutes, runs number 10

W/J Method
180 min, runs number =1 (may not be sufficient)

not sensitive

sensitive Time consuming, but reliable and stable, moment fitting solution used to replace MLM

sensitive

Characteristics

Weak in theory, but consistent

Sensitive to range of data for fitting (20%-100% / 20%-98%), DAFs scatter

Sensitive to random seed selection, unstable

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