Paper accepted for presentation at the 2011 IEEE Trondheim PowerTech

Climate Change Effect on Very Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

M. O. Oliveira, Member, IEEE, D. P. Marzec, Student Member, IEEE, G. Bordin, Member, IEEE, A. S. Bretas, Member, IEEE, D. Bernardon, Member, IEEE.
radiation, among others, - cyclical: days and months of the year, - seasonal: vacation and weekends, - random: atypical factors such as strikes and holidays. Several methodologies for forecasting electricity demand on different projection horizons have been proposed in recent years [1]-[9]. However, the implementation of this methodologies are limited to medium and large electrical systems and their performance is associated to the reliability of historical data from different variables and their forecast ability depends heavily on accurate knowledge of the load behavior of the electric systems under study. Available methods can be classified in: - conventional methods (regression models, statistical learning model) [10][12], - alternative methods (artificial neural network, expert systems, among others) [13][15]. In this context, this paper outlines the potential impact of climate change on electricity demand and presents a methodology for projection in the very short-term. Therefore, Ambient Temperature (TA) and Relative Humidity (RH) are related through the Discomfort Index (DI) in both the TA with the Wind Speed (WS), are linked through Wind Chill (WC). These relations were used in this approach to obtain a projection model of demand using multiple linear regressions. The proposed projection model was tested computationally and compared with based on real data obtained from utility generating electricity located in southern Brazil. II. CLIMATIC VARIABLES EFFECT ON EVOLUTION OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND The climate impact in end users of electricity can be significant, for example, water-pumping requirements will increase where the climate becomes hotter but less wet due to higher water demand from irrigation, residential, commercial and municipal sector. On the other hand, this impact also depends on the mix of resources used for heating and cooling given that air conditioning could be provided by electrical means while space heating is provided by gas boilers. In the short and very short-term electric load projection the climatic variables have an important impact and should be incorporate in the projection model, as presented in [16]-[18]. An important topic related to the consumption of electric power is the thermal comfort, which expresses human satisfaction with thermal environment. Although the thermal comfort of each individual varies, the climatic variables

Abstract--Climate changes are related to air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation level, among others. These variables have a large effect on very short-term electricity demand (minutes or hour ahead). In this context, this paper presents a methodology for very short-term load forecasting considering the climatic change impact. Therefore, air temperature and relative humidity are related through the Discomfort Index, and the first with the wind speed are linked through the Wind Chill. These climate indexes are used in this paper for electric load forecasting together with a multiple regression model. The proposed projection methodology was tested computationally and compared with real date obtained from a distribution utility located in southern Brazil. The results demonstrate the strong dependence of the evolution of electricity demand with climatic change in the very short-term. Index Terms electric load sensitivity, electricity demand, climate change, forecasting methodology, very short-term.

I. INTRODUCTION HE planned expansion and operation of the Electric Power Systems (EPS) are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the load forecasting methodology used. The estimation of future behavior of electric loads is directly linked to the task of decision making and achievement of management actions on both the demand side and supply side of electricity. Thus, a projection beyond the scope of any forecast horizon may harm, since an underestimation could result in not attendance of consumers while overestimation leads to idleness of the electric system. Regarding the operation planning and the expansion of electric systems, load forecasting is held on time horizons of long-term (1 to 10 year period), medium-term (several months to a year period), short-term (a day ahead) and very short-term (hours and minutes ahead) [1]. Regardless of the methodology and the forecast time period, some factors have significant influence and should be incorporated into the model to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the electric load forecasting methodology. These factors can be divided into four main categories: - climatic: seasons year, cloud cover, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation level, solar
M. O. Oliveira, Denise P. Marzec, Gladis Bordin and Arturo S. Bretas are with the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, 90035-190 (phone: +55 51 33083291; e-mail: moliveira@ece.ufrgs.br, denisemarzec@ece.ufrgs.br, gladis.bordin@ufrgs.br, abretas@ece.ufrgs.br) Daniel P Bernardon is with the Federal University of Pampa, Alegrete, RS, Brazil, 97546-550 (e-mail: danielbernardon@unipampa.edu.br).

978-1-4244-8417-1/11/$26.00 2011

changes directly affect the metabolism of the human body altering the comfort sense. The potential impact of climate change on electricity demand can be seen on a daily basis through the fluctuation of demand with weather conditions. In this sense, electricity demand is affected not only by air temperature but also wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and evaporation level, transpiration of human body, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure and cloud cover [19]. The correct variable choice that would characterize a given load pattern will determine the suitability of a projection model. In this sense, the variables considered in this work have significant importance in terms of their effects on the evolution of electricity demand in the very short-term period. Fig. 1 illustrates the causal relationship between main climatic variables and electricity demand.

real-time estimation and is used to detect dangerous conditions of operation, and assist in developing strategies to control frequency in electric systems [7]. It can be said, the shorter the forecast horizon, the greater the need for precision and detail. Another requirement in the very short-term horizon is the robustness of the model adopted for the projection, since the model should adapt quickly to unusual situations. B. Variation of Electric Load with Air Temperature and Relative Humidity Air temperature (TA) and relative humidity (RH) are the most important weather variables that affect the electricity demand (electric load) in very short-term [16]. Thus, Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 illustrate the positive correlation between these two climate variables and the maximum load given that the electric load increased with the increase of any of these variables.

Fig. 1: Causal relationships diagram between main climate variables and electricity demand.

A. Electric Load Patterns In electricity demand projection studies it is important to evaluate and define the characteristics of daily demand profiles. Fig. 2 illustrates the electric load demanded in a full week of the month of April 2008 of a distribution utility of southern Brazil. It is observed that on week days (Monday to Friday) the load profiles are similar, and that on weekends there is a load decrease. Considering the full year calendar, it is identified a weekly seasonality, with the values of load increasing or decreasing depending on the seasons year, with most notable change in summer and winter.

Fig. 3: Positive correlation between maximum load [MW] and average air temperature [C].

Fig. 2: Load patterns daily and weekly for full week of the April of 2008.

Fig. 4: Positive correlation between maximum load [MW] and average humidity [%].

The pattern knowledge behavior of the electricity load demand in a very short-term horizon can be considered as a

III. RELATION BETWEEN THE CLIMATE VARIABLES STUDIED A. Discomfort Index (DI) The combination of TA and RH determines the comfort sensation in the human body. In this sense, these variables are chosen to define thermal discomfort levels. The discomfort index (DI) is an expression that combines into a single value the effect of both TA and RH on hot or cold sensation felt by the human body. This index is defined as [20]:
R DI = TA 0,55 1 H (TA 14) 100

B. Wind Chill (WC) Aiming to consider the most important climatic variables, in respect to very short-term load demand, another expression that relates TA with Wind Speed (WS) is proposed. This expression determines the real temperature experienced by human body and is called Wind Chill (WC). The WC index is calculated using the following equation:

WC = 33 +
(1)

(10. W

+ 10,45 WS .(TA 33) 22

(2)

where DI is discomfort index [C], TA is air temperature [C] and RH is relative humidity [%]. Table I present a range of categories for the discomfort index proposed in [21]. For values lower than 20, have a sense of reverse discomfort, i.e., when the human body begins to feel cold. To 20 DI 21 the entire population has a pleasant sense of comfort.
TABLE I DISCOMFORT INDEX CATEGORIES

where WC is wind chill [C], TA is air temperature [C], and WS is the wind speed [m/s]. Equation (2) was adapted from the expression presented in [22], to meet the dimensionality criterion of WC, usually expressed in [C]. Fig. 6 shows the WC, TA and WS variation during a full working day (September 2009). It can be observed that of the WC variation is proportional to air temperature change. On other hand, of the WC variation is not directly proportion to the variation of wind speed.

DI Value [C] DI < 20 20 DI < 21 21 DI < 24 24 DI < 26 DI 26 DI > 26,7

Discomfort Level Discomfort Reverse (cold) 0% population 10% population 50% population 100% population Discomfort Dangerous

Fig. 5 shows the DI and air temperature variation during a full working day (July 2009). It can be observed that the variation of DI is very similar to air temperature change throughout the day. The DI index takes into account the air temperature and relative humidity variation.

Fig. 6: Plot of TA, WC and WS during a full working day.

The intention to evaluate of the DI and WC index is justified by the fact that these two magnitudes are directly related to the sensation of thermal discomfort of a person, which in turn has a significant effect on the evolution of electricity demand. Furthermore, with the study of the effect of DI and WC on the evolution of electricity demand can relate in only two values the individual effects of the air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, mains climatic variables with direct influence on electric consumption. IV. ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING USING CLIMATE VARIABLES: PROPOSED METHODOLOGY The monthly load demand and weather data analysis helps in understanding the variables behavior, which may affect load forecasting. In this work, the weather sensitivity analysis on electric load demand is carried out based the diary values of energy, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity measured during two consecutive years (2008-2009).

Fig.5: Plot of TA, DI and RH during a full working day.

A. Multiple Linear Regression Model Multiple regression models involve three or more variable or estimators. This means that one variable is function of two or more independent variables (explanatory). The purpose of the use of additional independent variables is to improve the predictive capacity of the model, compared with simple linear regression. Even when there is interest in the effect of only one variable, it is important to include variables that can affect the main variable, performing a multiple regression analysis. Thus, can be reduce waste stochastic, since reducing the residual variance increases the power of significance tests. Through multiple regressions, we can also eliminate the trend that could result if it were simply ignored one of the variables that directly affects the dependent variable. In the electric system context, the regression models assume that the electric load is divided into a normalized component and a component dependent on some explanatory variables. The explanatory variables can also be called exogenous variables or causal, those typically are the climatic variables considered for studies of electricity demand forecasting [4]. Thus, the regression model can be written as:

WC, used for forecasting methodology. The horizon projection is to very short-term, i.e., minutes or hours ahead. After determining the DI and WC indices, a projection of electric load through a multiple regression model is performed and it also calculates the error associated with each projected load. When the electric load projected is between the expected ranges (maximum permissible error) the projection of electricity demand for the chosen horizon is ended. However, one must respect the limits of the model, that is, as we identified two patterns in the demand profiles, the projection of load is carried out within these patterns.

y (t ) = b(t ) +

n i =1

ai xi (t ) + (t )

(3)

where b(t) is the normalized load, (t) is white noise component, xi(t) are the explanatory independent variables and ai(t) are the angle coefficient of the i-th variable. B. Forecasting Error Determination In order to evaluate the performance of the electric load forecasting methodology proposed in this paper, the following error indices have been calculated [23]: - Absolute Percentage Error (APE),
Fig. 7: Flowchart of proposed forecasting methodology.

APE =

xiR xiF xiR

100 [%]

(4)

V. SIMULATION AND RESULTS A data set with two full years (2008-2009) was used to test the performance of the very short-term load forecasting methodology presented in this paper. The method was implemented in MATLAB environment [24], and simulation forecasting are presented in following where the results were compared with actual demand of electricity for a horizon of 24 hours ahead. A. Electric Load Forecasting for Working Days Fig. 8 shows the electricity demand forecasting for a working day corresponding to a summer day (November 2008). The absolute percentage error (APE) was 1.25 % and occurred with the projection made for 20 hours. This error in the electric load projected resulted high mainly due to the restriction of the database used. Fig. 9 presents the load forecasting for Monday day corresponding to summer (January 2009) where the maximum absolute percentage error in the load projection was 1.45% for 10 hours.

where xRi is the real value of the electric hourly parameter at the i-th month, xFi is the forecast value at the same month. - Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE),

MAPE =

1 N

N i =1

xiR xiF xiR

100 [%]

(4)

where N is the forecast horizon, xRi is the i-th real value of load and xFi is the i-th forecast load. C. Flowchart of Proposed Forecasting Methodology Fig. 7 presents the proposed electric load forecasting methodology. Initially, it is considered both climate variables (TA, WS, RH) and technical information (horizon desired and load current). This information is contained in a database and is used to calculate the thermal discomfort indices, DI and

Finally, Fig. 11 illustrates another electric load projection for Sunday profile for the January month (summer). In this projection, the absolute percentage error (APE) found was 1.05% corresponding to 21 hours.

Fig. 8: Electricity demand forecasting for working day (November 2008).

Fig. 11: Electricity demand forecasting for weekend (Sunday day).

C. Forecasting Methodology Performance For the projection model proposed the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) have been calculated and the maximum error for working day is presented in Table II for two years study. For other hand, of the forecasting methodology performance for weekend day is reported in Table III.
Fig. 9: Electricity demand forecasting for working day (January 2009). TABLE II ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING ERRORS (WORKING DAY) MAPE [%] MAPE [%] MONTHS 2008 2009

B. Electric Load Forecasting for Weekends Fig. 10 presents the electricity demand forecasting for Sunday day corresponding to winter (July 2008). We can observe that the projection made by the algorithm developed satisfactory accompanying the evolution of electricity demand throughout the day. In this case, the APE error was 4.32 % and occurred with the projection made for 17 hours.

January February March April May June July August September October November December

1.65 1.55 1.32 1.25 1.15 1.68 0.81 0.98 1.05 1.48 1.69 1.77

1.98 1.49 1.64 0.97 0.98 1.65 1.59 1.74 1.19 1.11 1.98 1.97

Fig. 10: Electricity demand forecasting for weekend (Sunday day).

The forecasting errors for summer period months of 2008 and 2009 are typically high (November, December and January). This error is due to electricity demand sudden changes recorded in these years (see Fig. 8 and Fig. 9), which reduces the accuracy of the forecast model. However, others high values of MAPE occur in different months of the test years, which mean that the error is not systematic and it is strictly affected by climatic changes (meteorology).

6 TABLE III ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING ERRORS (WEEKEND) MAPE [%] MAPE [%] MONTHS 2008 2009

VII. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors would like to thank the technical and financial support of Mux Energia, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientfico e Tecnolgico (CNPq) and Coordenao de Aperfeioamento de Pessoal de Nvel Superior (CAPES). VIII. REFERENCES
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January February March April May June July August September October November December

1.08 1.02 1.05 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.96 0.96 0.97 1.05 1.02

1.34 1.32 1.11 0.98 1.11 1.08 1.25 1.08 1.15 1.21 1.32 1.33

[2] [3]

[4]

The mean absolute percentage forecasting errors (MAPE) for the weekend both 2008 and 2009 are smaller than the MAPE for the working days (Table II). Again the forecasting errors for summer period months are high but there is a minor variation this error over the year. VI. CONCLUSIONS The electric load demand estimation at any projection time horizon is of great importance, mainly because large deviations can lead the electrical system to critical situations with respect to the supply of energy and consequently high financial costs. In this context, climate changes present a strong impact on electricity demand patterns in very shortterm period. The forecasting algorithm proposed in this paper has been developed based on the relationships between weather changes and electricity demand, and prevailing daily load pattern. Thus, the discomfort index (DI) and wind chill (WC) were proposed and used for to electricity load forecasting. It was identified that both the DI and WC index are appropriate indicators to load demand forecasting in the very short-term, since they consider satisfactorily the effects of main climatic variables (air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) on the demand for electricity. On analysis of the electric load development, it was observed that deviations in the electricity demand curve, upon the occurrence of peak demand, have a strong relationship with climatic variables studied. The multiple regression model used has proved effectiveness in tests, showing a small mean absolute percentage error. Still, the maximum error was larger due to database restriction. Ongoing studies with a more complete and comprehensive database are being realized. Analyzing the simulation test results it was observed that the electric demand forecasting model follows satisfactorily the load evolution along the studied days, demonstrating its potential for real life applications.

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IX. BIOGRAPHIES
Mario Orlando Oliveira (M09) was born in Capiovi. Misiones, Argentina, on May 13, 1979. He received the Eletromechanical Engineering degree from the National University of Misiones (UNaM), Argentina, in 2005 and M.Eng. degree from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Brazil, in 2009. Currently, he is a collaborating professor of the National University of Misiones, Ober, Argentina. His research interests include electrical machines protection and modeling, faults detection and location. Denise Pivatto Marzec (S09) was born in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, on May 13, 1986. He received the E.E. degree from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Brazil, in 2009, where she is currently pursuing the M.Eng. degree in power systems. Her research interests include fault detection and location. Gladis Bordin (M09) was born in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil in 1955. He received the E.E. and M.Eng. degree from the Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil, in 1979 and 1988 respectively, and the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil, in 2000. Currently, she is an Associate Professor of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Brazil. Her research interests include analysis, planning and operation of power system and electric demand projection. Arturo Suman Bretas (M98) was born in Bauru, So Paulo, Brazil, on July 5, 1972. He received the E.E and M.Eng. degrees from the University of So Paulo, Brazil, in 1995 and 1998 respectively, and the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, in 2001. Currently, he is an Associate professor of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. His research interests include power system protection, control and restoration. Daniel Pinheiro Bernardon (M98) was born in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil in 1977. He received the E.E., M.Eng. and Ph.D. degree from the Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil, in 2001, 2003 and 2007 respectively. Currently, she is an Associate Professor of the Federal University of Pampa (UNIPAMPA), RS, Brazil. His research interests include analysis, planning and operation of power system.