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June 5, 2012
MphasiS
Performance highlights
Y/E Oct. (` cr) Cons. Net sales EBITDA 2QFY12 1,329 261 19.7 189 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 1,367 252 18.4 185 (2.8) 3.7 123bp 2.5 2QFY11 1,257 241 19.1 217 % chg (yoy) 5.7 8.7 53bp (12.8)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (`cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code 0.9 488/277 43,470 10 16,021 4,863 MBFL.BO MPHL@IN IT 7,247
`346 `373
12 Months
For 2QFY2012, MphasiS numbers underperformed our expectation on the revenue front but came in-line with our expectations on the operating and net profit fronts. The companys USD revenue declined on a qoq basis due to delays in ramp ups of few projects and weakness in discretionary spending. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.7x FY2013E EPS with a strong cash position of `2,340cr, which warrants limited downside. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock. Quarterly highlights: MphasiS reported revenue of US$261mn, down 1.7% qoq. During the quarter, revenue from the direct channel declined by 3.2% qoq to `562cr because of lower license revenue and revenue from HP channel declined by 2.7% qoq due to ramp down in certain projects, especially in the area of enterprise services. The HP non-enterprise services area of business showed robust momentum with revenue growing by 17.4% qoq to `59cr. EBITDA margin of the company expanded by 123bp qoq to 19.7%, aided by lower employee costs due to overall employee reduction and improvement in utilization level across all its business segments. Outlook and valuation: MphasiS revenue has been continuously getting hurt due to sluggish performance of HP-ES business. Also, traction in HP non-ES business is below managements initial expectation of US$90mn-100mn in FY2012 and is in the range of US$50mn-60mn. Going forward, management expects the direct channel (~42% to revenue) and HP non-enterprise solution business (which is currently ~5% of revenue from the HP channel) to drive growth, whereas HP-ES business is expected to remain sluggish. Also, business wise, we expect ITO to continue to be the possible growth driver for the company. We expect a 5.5% revenue CAGR for MphasiS over FY2011-14E, considering that business from HP is sluggish and the overall macro environment is posing a high amount of uncertainty towards client budgets for the next year and even tier-I companies are facing headwinds because of this. Also, in our view, there is a good possibility that the company may use its cash pile of ~`2,340cr to go for a buy-back. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `373. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Oct. (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2010 5,036 17.9 1,091 19.0 25.1 52.0 6.6 2.2 33.1 32.9 1.1 4.5 FY2011 5,098 1.2 822 (24.6) 19.3 39.2 8.8 1.9 21.1 19.8 1.1 5.6 FY2012E 5,399 5.9 741 (9.8) 18.8 35.3 9.8 1.5 15.8 16.7 0.9 5.0 FY2013E 5,608 3.9 744 0.4 17.7 35.5 9.7 1.4 13.9 14.3 0.8 4.6 FY2014E 5,964 6.3 772 3.7 17.3 36.8 9.4 1.2 12.6 13.0 0.7 3.9
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 60.5 6.3 21.6 11.7
3m
1yr
Ankita Somani
022-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1,329 945 384 122 261 46 216 (7) 41 250 61 189 9.0 19.7 16.2 13.8
1QFY12 1,367 1,000 368 116 252 47 205 (2) 36 239 54 185 8.8 18.4 15.0 13.2
1HFY11 2,491 1,796 695 197 498 70 428 1 83 513 69 444 21.2 20.0 17.2 17.8
June 5, 2012
2QFY12 1QFY12 2QFY11 466 347 78 51 69 329 8 5 34.5 25.7 5.8 3.8 5.1 24.3 0.6 0.3 445 390 76 52 70 335 8 16 32.0 28.0 5.5 3.8 5.1 24.0 0.6 1.2 443 322 77 69 73 253 8 35.6 25.9 6.2 5.6 5.8 20.3 0.6 0.0
% chg qoq 4.7 (10.9) 2.2 (2.7) (2.6) (1.6) (3.6) (71.2) chg qoq (bp) 251 (230) 29 1 2 31 (0) (82)
% chg yoy 5.2 7.7 0.9 (26.6) (5.5) 29.9 1.3 chg yoy (bp) (111) (20) (44) (180) (76) 400 (4) 35
Industry vertical wise, MphasiS posted a 7.6% decline in its revenue from the IT, communication and entertainment industry. Revenue from the banking and capital markets (contributing 25.4% to revenue) and insurance (contributing 11.4% to revenue) industry verticals declined moderately by 3.6% and 2.8% qoq to `344cr and `154cr, respectively.
% chg qoq (3.6) (2.8) (7.6) 1.2 (17.9) 0.4 (133.1) 150.7
% chg yoy 2.1 24.4 6.9 10.3 (160.9) 144.3 (41.4) 58.0
MphasiS again reported a slight decline of ~US$0.4/hr in its offshore billing rate of application services as well as ITO business as the company hired ~1,300 freshers in the last three quarters and all those turned billable during 4QFY2012; and freshers command lower billing rates than lateral hires. Onsite billing rate of ITO declined substantially to US$63/hr from US$67/hr, which management indicated is due to Euro depreciation against USD and change in pyramid mix. Pricing of BPO was stable at US$6/hr.
June 5, 2012
2QFY12 67 20 63 20 6
1QFY12 67 21 67 21 6
2QFY11 72 20 67 20 7
Client metrics
MphasiS has been focusing on direct channel strategy to win clients. Overall, the company added 18 new clients in 2QFY2012 14 in the direct channel and 4 in the HP channel. Vertical wise, one client was added in the banking and capital market service industry, two in insurance, four in IT, communication and entertainment and the rest 11 in emerging industries. MphasiS witnessed reduction of three clients in the HP channel in the over US$20mn category. In the direct channel, three clients were added in the >US$5mn category and one in the >US$20mn category.
June 5, 2012
2QFY12 126 48 78 42 15 27 24 10 14 12 5 7
1QFY12 122 42 80 41 14 27 25 11 14 12 5 7
2QFY11 119 41 78 39 12 27 25 10 15 14 4 10
Hiring muted
During the quarter, MphasiS recorded net reduction in its employee base across all business segments, taking its total employee base to 37,179. Headcount of the application services business and ITO business declined by 1,074 and 489 employees to 13,462 and 14,960, respectively. Management indicated that from now on hiring would be considered as per the demand environment.
ITO services
Onsite Offshore BPO services Onsite Offshore
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81 77 71
84 80
(%)
76
76 75
76
73 68
70
71
66
1QFY12
2QFY12
BPO servics
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(`)
400 200 0
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
3x
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
15x
12x
9x
6x
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May-12
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Company background
MphasiS is a mid-tier Indian IT company formed by the acquisition of MphasiS by BFL in 1999. In 2006, EDS acquired a majority stake in MphasiS and subsequently HP bought EDS in May 2008, thereby making MphasiS an HP company. The company provides application, infrastructure and BPO services to clients in the banking, capital markets, insurance, telecommunication and manufacturing industries. MphasiS is one of the largest BPO service providers in India, offering voice as well as transaction-based services.
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Key ratios
Y/E Oct. Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 1.8 70 1.4 89 1.2 89 1.1 89 1.0 89 32.9 91.3 33.1 19.8 66.5 21.1 16.7 51.3 15.8 14.3 46.0 13.9 13.0 42.5 12.6 0.9 1.1 0.2 1.5 1.0 33.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 21.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 15.8 0.8 1.2 0.1 1.0 1.1 13.9 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.9 1.0 12.6 52.0 59.8 4.0 157.4 39.2 46.6 6.5 186.1 35.3 44.2 4.0 224.0 35.5 44.5 4.0 254.8 36.8 46.2 4.0 291.6 6.6 5.8 2.2 1.2 1.1 4.5 1.7 8.8 7.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 5.6 1.3 9.8 7.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 5.0 1.0 9.7 7.8 1.4 1.2 0.8 4.6 0.8 9.4 7.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 3.9 0.6 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
MphasiS No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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