Cement roadmap targets

3
This timeline is based on a set of 38 technology papers developed by the European Cement Research Academy (ECRA) on behalf of CSI, and on IEA modeling and scenario analysis Targets for decrease in energy intensity, 2010-2050
4.0
Energy intensity (GJ / t clinker)

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
Baseline emissions: 2.34 Gt
Opportunities for CO2 emissions reductions
The BLUE scenario examines the implications of a policy objective to halve global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to todays level The outcomes implicit in the BLUE scenario are consistent with a global rise in temperatures of 2C to 3C, but only if the reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions is combined with deep cuts in other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions A halving of global emissions will mean that the cement industry will need to reduce its current emissions by 18% by 2050

Cement sector CO2 emissions reductions below the baseline, low demand scenario, 2006-2050

2.5

2.33
Baseline high BLUE high

Direct emissions (Gt Co2)

2.22
20 Baseline low
Energy consumption (EJ)

Energy efficiency: 10% : 24% Alternative fuel use and other fuel switching Clinker substitution: 10%

40
Alternative fuel use (%)

37%
Cement to clinker ratio (%)

80 75 70 65 0

3.5 3.0 2.5 0 2010

3.6 3.4 3.2

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 23%

74%

73% 71%

1.88 Gt 12%
5% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions reductions

Biomass and alternative fuels Electricity Oil Coal Natural gas 5 0 2006 2050 10

15

BLUE low

3.9

2.0

35

77%

2.20

100%

1.86

Carbon capture and storage (CCS): 56%

2020

2030

2040

2050

1.5

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Acronyms:

Cement to clinker ratio (%)

Targets for alternative fuel use, 2010-2050

40 35
Alternative fuel use (%)

2006
37%
Cement to clinker ratio (%)

2010
20

2015
Baseline high BLUE high 81% Baseline low BLUE low 79% 78%

2020

2025

2030

80 75

77% 73% 71%

Energy consumption (EJ)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5% 12% 23%

74%

15 10

Energy 70 efficiency
65

R&D on fluidised bed technology

Alternative 0 fuel use and 2010 fuel switching Clinker substitution

Cement to clinker ratio (%)

R&D into new grinding equipment and additives 5

2020 2030 2040 2050 0

0 2010

Diffusion of BAT: phase out of wet kilns in OECD Electricity

2020 2030 2040

76% Biomass and alternative fuels Natural gas 2050 Oil

Diffusion of BAT: international standard for new kilns

Diffusion of BAT: phase out of wet kilns in non-OECD

Diffusion of BAT: global energy intensity 3.2-3.4 Gt / t clinker

Ongoing identification and classification of suitable Coal alternative fuels

2006 2050

BAT C.A. 2035 CCS CSI EJ ECRA GJ Gt IEA OECD R&D tCO2

Note: excludes CCS energy use and electricity

2006

Energy consumption (EJ)

15 10 5 0 2006

BLUE low

Targets for decrease in cement to clinker ratio, 2010-2050

80
Cement to clinker ratio (%)

Baseline low

0.5

Cement to clinker ratio: 73%

Cement to clinker ratio: 71%

20

Baseline high

BLUE high Biomass and alternative fuels Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal

Assess substitution material properties and evaluate regional availability

Baseline high BLUE high

2010

Develop international standards on blended cement use

Implement international standards on blended cement use

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

best available technology chemical absorption 2040 carbon capture and storage Cement Sustainability Initiative Exajoule European Cement Research Academy Gigajoule Gigatonne International Energy Agency Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development research and development tonne of CO2

BLUE emissions: 1.55 Gt

2045 2050
All of these technologies need to be applied together if the BLUE scenario targets are to be achieved no one option alone can yield the necessary emissions reductions

Diffusion of BAT: global energy intensity 3.1-3.2 Gt/t clinker

2040

2045

2050

Final energy consumption in the cement sector by scenario, 2006 and 2050

Baseline low

77% 74% 73% 71%

81% 20
Energy consumption (EJ)

79%

75 70 65 0 2010

BLUE low

78%

0
2020 2030 2040 2050

Carbon capture 0 10 and storage 2010 (CCS) 5

0

15

76%

R&D - oxyfueling, gas cleaning: 1st CCS pilot plant

Biomass and alternative fuels Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal

R&D - oxyfueling, gas cleaning: develop oxyfueling and chemical looping Demonstration: 2 chemical absorption demonstration plants Mitigation costs USD/tCO2 cement (post combustion/oxyfueling): 125/na

R&D - oxyfueling, gas cleaning: C.A. energy use to fall to 2.2 GJ/t Deployment: all large new kilns with CCS Demonstration: 3 oxyfuel demos, 3 chemical looping demos Mitigation costs USD/tCO2 cement (post combustion/oxyfueling): 100/60 Commercial use of membrane technology Deployment

Deployment: 50-70 cement kilns with CCS Mitigation costs USD/tCO2 cement (post combustion/oxyfueling): 100/50 Gt captured: 0.11-0.16 Gt; % CO2 captured: 10-12%

Deployment: 100-200 cement kilns with CCS

Deployment: 220-430 cement kilns with CCS Mitigation costs USD/tCO2 cement (post combustion/ oxyfueling): 75/40

2020

2030

2040

2050

2050

2006
2006 2050

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Gt captured: 0.5-1.0 Gt ; % CO2 captured: 40-45%

2050

Note: all figures show global average

%)

Research and development (R&D)

Demonstration

Commercialisation
(EJ)

20

The application of CCS increases energy use and hence in the BLUE scenarios energy use rises compared to the Baseline scenarios

Production (Mt cement)

Key regional milestones

This roadmap aims to propose tangible policy recommendations for governments around the world and so is written with a broad, global view However, it acknowledges the wide differences between regions for many aspects of cement industry technology development and implementation. There are differences, for example, in alternative fuel availability, and in building standards enabling or preventing higher clinker substitution It is key that nationally appropriate policies should be developed to reinforce this roadmaps broad recommendations Canada and United States
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 12.4 8% 0.90 0 BLUE low demand 2030 11.4 21% 0.85 4.9 2050 12.3 37% 0.81 21.5 2015 12.2 9% 0.90 0 BLUE high demand 2030 11.3 22% 0.84 9.3 2050 14.2 38% 0.81 43.0

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Producti

2 000

Economies in transition Other developing Asia Latin America

2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

1 000

Regional cement production

2006 2015 2030 2050 low high low high low high

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0

4 000

2006 2006 2015

2015 2030 2030 2050 2050

Other OECD Europe OECD Pacific China India

2006 2006 2015

2015 2030 2030 2050 2050

2006

Africa and Middle East

3 000

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement) Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement) Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt)

2015 19.4 13% 0.77 0

2030 29.9 23% 0.73 23.7

2050 47.4 33% 0.71 99.8

2015 19.6 15% 0.77 0

2030 33.6 27% 0.72 28.8

2050 60.1 35% 0.72 173.1

300 200 100 0

300 200 100 0 2006 2015 2030 2050

300 200 100

300 200 100 2030 2050

2006 300 300

200 200 100 100

300 200 100

2015 high low

2030300 300

300

2050 low high

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

India

BLUE low demand

BLUE high demand

This map and figures show estimated cement production for the years 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050, and regional breakdown of forecast production under BLUE high and low demand scenarios Between 2006 and 2050, cement production is projected to grow by 0.8-1.2% per year, reaching between 3,700 megatonnes (Mt) and 4,400 Mt in 2050. This represents a 43-72% increase compared to production in 2006

Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip Union 25 ex ea European commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Regional cement production:
400 2006 2015 2030 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050 2050

2 000

Economies in transition Other developing Asia

Canada and United States

400

OECD Pacific European Union 25

400 400

1 000

Latin America

0 0 Regional cement production: 2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2050 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050

0 0 0 Regional cement production: 2006 2006 2015 2030 2050 2006 2015 2015 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2030 2030 2050 2050

European Union 25
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 15.5 17% 0.76 0

BLUE low demand 2030 13.3 28% 0.73 4.3 2050 13.7 39% 0.69 20.7 2015 16.5 18% 0.76 0

BLUE high demand 2030 15.7 30% 0.72 9.4 2050 19.0 40% 0.71 69.8

Other developing Asia

Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 24.7 11% 0.78 0

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Production (Mt cement) Production (Mt cement) Production (Mt cement) 400 300 200 100 0 400 300 200 100 0 2050 2006 400 300 200 100 0 2030 2006 2015 2050

BLUE low demand 2030 35.1 21% 0.72 21.4 2050 51.2 34% 0.70 100.2 2015 26.3 15% 0.78 0

BLUE high demand 2030 39.4 28% 0.72 21.0 2050 64.5 35% 0.73 150.6

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

Other OECD Europe

Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 2.7 19% 0.82 0

BLUE low demand 2030 3.3 30% 0.80 1.7 2050 3.9 39% 0.80 5.5 2015 2.9 21% 0.78 0

BLUE high demand 2030 3.9 30% 0.72 4.6 2050 5.4 40% 0.73 3.7

Economies in transition
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 14.7 14% 0.77 0

SOURCE Regional cement production: 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050

Production (Mt cement)

BLUE low demand 2030 12.7 22% 0.74 1.5 2050 10.8 35% 0.72 12.9 2015 17.9 7% 0.77 0

BLUE high demand 5000

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

15.2 16% 0.74 4.1

16.2 37% 0.72 19.0

Alternative fuel shares presented exclude the additional energy requirement for CCS The CO2 storage figures presented here are based on capture potentials. Additional analysis is needed to verify the storage potential in different regions

2006 Post-2030 global cement 200 200 production will be fuelled by strong 100 100 demand growth in India and other 0 0 2006 2015 2030 2050 developing Asian countries, and in Africa and the Middle East

2015

2030

2050

2006 2015 200 100 0 2006

2030

2050

2006

2015

2030

2015

2030

2050

2006

2015

2030

2050

high demand scenario low demand scenario

high demand scenario

Production (Mt cement)

2030

2050

Cement consumption in China, which currently accounts forOther OECD Europe just Economies in transition under half of total production, is 400 400 expected to peak between 2015 300 300 and 2030, as per capita cement European Union 25 Canada and United States 200 OECD Pacific 200 consumption declines towards 400 100 100 more 400 developed country levels 400
300 300 300

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA or WBCSD.

2006

2015

2030

2050

2015

2030

2050

OECD Pacific
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 9.7 12% 0.83 0

BLUE low demand 2030 8.2 23% 0.77 4.0 2050 7.5 35% 0.72 15.8 2015 10.3 13% 0.82 0

BLUE high demand 2030 9.5 24% 0.76 7.2 2050 10.7 35% 0.72 38.2

Latin America
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 14.5 16% 0.73 0

BLUE low demand 2030 18.4 25% 0.71 9.7 2050 26.4 39% 0.70 49.7 2015 14.4 16% 0.73 0

BLUE high demand 2030 18.5 25% 2050 32.7 40%

Regional cement production: 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050
Production (Mt cement)

Global cement production: 2006, 2015, 2030 and 2050

5 000 high demand scenario low demand scenario 4 000 Canada and United States European Union 25 Other OECD Europe OECD Pacific China India Economies in transition Other developing Asia Latin America Africa and Middle East 0

Regional cement production: 2006, 0.71 2030 and 2050 2015, 0.72

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Other OECD Europe

Production (Mt cement) 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2015 2030 2050

Economies in transition
300 200 100 0

Latin America
Production (Mt cement) 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2015 2030 2050

China
Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 118.2 8% 0.72 0

BLUE low demand 2030 66.1 20% 0.69 25.0 2050 53.3 36% 0.68 82.0 2015 118.8 8% 0.71 0

BLUE high demand 2030 85.6 14% 0.69 40.3 2050 76.9 34% 0.70 236.8

Africa and Middle East

Technologies Energy use (Mtoe) Share of alternative fuel use Clinker to cement ratio CO2 captured (Mt) 2015 25.5 11% 0.82 0

Production (Mt cement)

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3 000 400

BLUE low demand 2030 30.5 22% 0.77 8.4 2050 47.0 33% 0.74 97.1

Production (Mt cement)

low

high

low

high

low

high

Production (Mt cement)

Production (Mt cement)

2050

400

400

Production (Mt cement)

2006 2006

2015 2015

2030

2050 2030

Production (Mt cement)

Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis 2015 nostrud exercitation ullamco 2030 2050 laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea 26.4 commodo consequat. Duis aute 35.3 68.0 irure dolor in reprehenderit in 14% voluptate velit esse35% dolore 25% cillum eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

BLUE high demand

2 000

1 000

180 160 140 120 10 0 80 60 40 20 0

180 160 140 120 10 0 80 60 40 20 0

Canada and United States Other OECD Europe Other OECD Europe
400 400 400

OECD Pacific in transition Africa and Middle East Economies Economies in transition
400 400 400

low

200 200 200

high
00

100 100 100 0 high demand scenario 2050 2050 2006 2015 2015 2030 2030 2030 2050 2006 2006 2015 low demand scenario

5 000 2050

China and United States Canada

European Union 25
1 800

Production (Mt cement)

4 000

Other OECD Europe OECD Pacific

1 600 China

3 000

India 2 000
1 400

Economies in transition Other developing Asia

1 000

Latin America Africa and Middle East

1 200

2006 low

2015 high low

2030 high low

2050 high
1 000

Latin America
400 300 200 100

800

600

400

180 160 140 120 10 0 80 60 40 20 0

Latin Latin Am
400 300 200 100 0 300 200 100

400

0 2006

high d

low de

200

India
800

low demand scenario

2006

2015

2030

2050

600

Production (Mt cement)

400

200

2006

2015

2030

2050

Africa & Middle East

800

Other developing Asia

800

600

European Union 25
400 300 200 100 0

Canada and United States

400 300

600

OECD Pacific
400 300 200 100 0 2006 2015 2030 2050

high demand scenario low demand scenario

0.81

0.76

0.76

21.5

158.7
DO NG KI M D ItE S

European Union 25
Production (Mt cement) 400 300
O W D RL CA S tE tA

200

Canada and United States

Production (Mt cement)
2006 2015 2030

200 200 100

OECD Pacific
Production (Mt cement) 400 300 200 100 0 2006

Global cement production 2006 (total 100%)

A BR 2% L ZI A A AD IN AN C CH % 1% 47 FR 1% CE AN RM GE 1% AN Y A DI IN 6% LY ItA 2% N PA JA 3% M E 2% CO XI S RU 2% SIA

400 2050 300 200 100 0

2006

2015

2030

2050

0 0 2006 2006 20152015 2030 2030 2050 2050

RI AF D H ItE Ut SO UN 5% 1% 0.

UN 4%

F tO ES 5% 200R 7. 2

100 0 2006 2015 2030 2050

2006

2015

2030

2050

2015

2030

2050

180 160 140 120 10 0 80