FOOD ASSISTANCE OUTLOOK BRIEF

PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR NOVEMBER 2012

May 2012

This section summarizes FEWS NETs most forward-looking analysis of projected external emergency food assistance needs, six months from now, in countries where FEWS NET has a staff presence. Overall needs at a national level are compared to typical needs at this time of year during the last five years and categorized as Above-average, Average, or Below-average/No need. A star (*) indicates new information this month. Projected lean season months that are highlighted in red indicate either an early start or an extension to the typical lean season. For more detail on these projections, please visit www.fews.net.

ABOVEAVERAGEASSISTANCENEEDSPROJECTEDINNOVEMBER 2012

BURKINAFASO:Refugeesconcentratedinfoodinsecureareas Projectedagropastoralleanseason:Apr/MayAugust Despitetheseasonalpeakinfoodavailabilityandlabordemand,refugeeconcentrationswillresultinunusualNovemberfoodassistanceneeds.

KENYA:SeasoninSEmarginalareasnotenoughtorefillstocks Projectedleanseason(northeastpastoral):JuneNov Themarginalmixedfarmingzonesinthesoutheastandcoastallowlandsarecomingintothecurrentseasonwithverylowstocklevels,andcurrent seasonalrainshavecometoolateforplantingsomecrops.Needswillalsobeaboveaverageinpastoralareas.

NIGER:Refugeeneedswillpersistbeyondtheharvestseason ProjectedN.Tillaberileanseason:MarchAugust Eveniftherainsareaverage,refugeeconcentrationsandcompetitionforlaborandresourceswillrequireabnormalfoodassistanceatthepeakof theharvestperiod.

*MALAWI:HighmaizepricesexpectedtodrivesubstantiallyaboveaverageneedsProjectedsouthernleanseason:JulyMarch Retail maize prices are expected to rise substantially over the coming year due the impacts of recent currency devaluation. The high prices will compoundpoorcerealandcashcropproductionandmayresultinsubstantialassistanceneedsasearlyastheJulySeptemberperiod.

MALI:Politicalcrisiscompoundingmediocre2011season Projectedagropastoralleanseason:FebruaryAugust FoodinsecurepopulationsinMaliwillcontinuetoexperienceaboveaveragelevelsofacutefoodsecuritythroughtheharvestseasonduetothe impactofconflictanddisplacementonlivelihoods,marketsandtrade,andagriculturalproduction.

MAURITANIA:Refugeeswillrequirefoodassistance Projectedagropastoralleanseason:FebruaryAugust Normalrainswillleadtoasuccessfulmainharvestwithpeakseasonalfoodavailabilityandincreasedlabordemand.Refugeeswillrequireabnormal levelsoffoodassistance.

SOUTHSUDAN:Insecurity,populationmovements,andhighfoodprices Projectedleanseason(borderareas):Mar/AprAugust Foodassistanceneedswillbeaboveaveragegivenlocalized2011/2012cropdeficits,intenseconflictanddisplacementinJonglei,aboveaverage demandduetothehighreturnee/IDP/refugeepopulation,andtheimpactofongoingtraderestrictionsbySudan,particularlyinborderstates.

SUDAN:Verypoorharvestandgovernmentimposedlimitsonassistance Projectedleanseason:MarchAugust Aboveaverageneedswillbedrivenbyatypicallyhighpricesduetoinflationandpoor2011/2012harvests,aswellastheimpactsofconflictand relatedrestrictionsontrade,populationmovements,andhumanitarianassistanceinpartsofSouthKordofanandBlueNile.

AVERAGEASSISTANCENEEDSPROJECTEDINNOVEMBER2012

*AFGHANISTAN:CroppingseasonlikelytobeaverageProjectedleanseason:FebruaryApril HouseholdsdisplacedbythespringflashfloodsorbyconflictalongwithrefugeesreturningtoAfghanistanfromabroadwillneedassistance.

*ETHIOPIA:Meherseasonneedslikelytobeaverage ProjectedBelgdependentleanseason:Feb/MarAug/Sep Continuedhighinflationandfoodprices,lateBelgrains,andanexpectednearfailureofthesweetpotatoharvestinSNNPRwillleadtoabove averageneedsinmanyBelgproducingareasuntiltheonsetofharvestsinAugust/September.

GUATEMALA:Normalleanseasonunderway Projectedleanseason(Highlands):MarSep/Oct Theleanseasonisunderway,andisexpectedtoendinAugust/Septemberwiththeprimeraharvests,assuminganaveragerainyseason.

HAITI:Heavyrainsalleviatingdroughtconditionsinnorthandnortheast Projectedleanseason:AprilJune Hurricaneseasonprojectionsforalessactiveseasoncouldstillaffectlongtermfoodsecurityifheavyrainsresultinseverecroplosses.

*SOMALIA:MarchMayforecastnearaverage,butpoorseasonpossible Projectedleanseason(S.cropping):MayJuly Rains began late, and despite some heavy rainfall in April, spatial distribution of rains remains uneven. In rainfed areas among agropastoral populations,theleanseasonwillextendasthegreenharvestofmaizeandsorghumwillstartinJulyratherthanJune.

ZIMBABWE:Mainharvestarrivesinlocalmarkets Projectedleanseason:OctoberFebruary FoodstuffscontinuetobeavailablesincethegreenharvestbeganinMarch.Theleanseasonislikelytobegin12monthsearlierthanusual.

MOZAMBIQUE:Rainfalldeficitscontinueincentralandsouthernareas Projectedleanseason:OctoberFebruary Foodisavailableinmostmarketsandpricesarecurrentlystableordeclining,followingthenormalseasonaltrend.

BELOWAVERAGEASSISTANCENEEDSORNOASSISTANCENEEDSPROJECTEDINNOVEMBER2012

NIGERIA(none),RWANDA(none),ZAMBIA(none),CHAD
FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 info@fews.net

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

Food Assistance Outlook Brief

May 2012

FEWS NET REMOTE MONITORING

Beyond presence countries where it maintains offices and staff, FEWS NET also monitors key indicators related to food security in selected non-presence countries. The table below summarizes the current monitoring status of each non-presence country.

BURUNDI ELSALVADOR HONDURAS LIBERIA NICARAGUA SENEGAL SIERRALEONE TAJIKISTAN TANZANIA YEMEN

SeasonB(FebruaryJune)rainshavebeenpoortodateinmostpartsofthecountry.Forecastsfortheremainderofthe seasonindicateanincreasedlikelihoodofnormaltobelownormalrainfall,withanearlycessation. ThepotentialforanElNinoeventtooccurisstillunderanalysis,butcouldimpactprimeraandpostreraharvests. ThepotentialforanElNinoeventtooccurisstillunderanalysis,butcouldimpactprimeraandpostreraharvests. Anormalleanseasonisexpectedthroughoutthecountry,eveninrefugeeconcentrationareas. ThepotentialforanElNinoeventtooccurisstillunderanalysis,butcouldimpactprimeraandpostreraharvests

The early start of the lean season in May/June for poor households in the eastern, centre and south due to crop deficitsanddiminishedordepletedstockshasleadtoearlyimplementationofcopingstrategies. NormalfoodsecurityconditionsareexpecteduntiltheendoftheleanseasoninAugust. RemittancessetanothermonthlyrecordinMarch2012.

OnsetoftheMasikarainswasdelayed,andtherainshavebeenerraticinthebimodalareas. Insecurity due to conflict and civil unrest continue in many parts of Yemen and more than 465,000 people are internallydisplaced.SomestaplefoodpriceshavedecreasedbutmoststillremainhigherthaninJanuary2011.

ImportantanomaliesinproximatecausesoffoodinsecurityhavebeenobservedandoutcomescorrespondingtoCrisis(IPCPhase3)orhigheronthe IPCAcute FoodInsecurityPhaseScalearelikelytooccurnoworinthefuture. ImportantanomaliesinproximatecausesoffoodinsecurityhavebeenobservedandoutcomescorrespondingtoIPCPhase2StressedonthetheIPCAcute FoodInsecurityPhaseScalearelikelytooccurnoworinthefuture. Noanomaliesofconcernhavebeenobserved.

LEAN SEASONS IN FEWS NET MONITORED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS

Country/Region
EthiopiaMehercropping EthiopiaBelgCropping EthiopiaPastoral SomaliaCropping Somalia/KenyaPastoral KenyaSEMarginalcropping DjiboutiCentral/NWpastoral Yemen SudanandSouthSudan UgandaUnimodal BurundiandRwanda TanzaniaBimodal SouthernAfrica/UnimodalTanzania Mozambique WestAfricaSahel(agropast.),Liberia,S.Leone WestAfricaSahel(pastoral),SouthernNigeria Afghanistanlowlands Tajikistan Haiti Nicaragua Guatemala HaitiandGuatemala

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

FAOBFocusmonth

Typicalleanseason

Atypicalleanseason

Hurricane/Cycloneseason