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doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01335.x
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Yes, had the SBV implemented policy on a more timely basis, the ination rate would probably not be as high as it is. But, no, the fundamental problems plaguing the conduct of monetary policy in Vietnam are not of the SBVs making. The SBV does not have the tools it needs to conduct monetary policy effectively, in large part because the government has not given priority to nancial sector liberalisation, and in particular to the development of a liquid secondary bond market. In addition, the SBV faces another challenge in conducting monetary policy that is not always given due consideration, which is Vietnams exchange rate policy. By choosing to peg the dong to the dollaralbeit with adjustments that have increased in magnitude and frequency in the recent yearsand maintain
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Tra Pham, , International University and Vietnam National University, and James Riedel, , Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC. The paper was written under the auspices of the USAID/ STAR-Vietnam project. The paper reects the views and opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of USAID/ STAR or any government agency. The authors are grateful to Ben Bingham, Vuong Quan Hoang, Phan Quang, Jonathan Pincus, and Scott Robertson for comments and suggestions, but alone are responsible for any errors or omissions. Resolution 11, February 24, 2011, made it ofcial.
1 2012 The Authors Journal compilation 2012 Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.
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Other liabilities
fairly free capital mobilityde facto, if not de jureVietnam has all but given up the ability to pursue an independent monetary policy. The only opening for an independent monetary policy that is available to the SBV is through the sterilisation of foreign exchange market interventions. Indeed, attempts to sterilise massive intervention in the foreign exchange market have been the main driver of monetary policy in recent years. The scope of this paper is conned to the SBVs conduct of monetary policy, by which we mean how and to what effect it has used the instruments of monetary policy at its disposal. We do not address the issue of how credit was allocated, which, given its rapid growth under conditions of high and volatile interest rates, has justiably raised concerns about a deterioration in the quality of bank loans and a growing vulnerability of the banking system to a crisis.
households and businesses. Currency in circulation is a liability of the central bank, and bank deposits are liabilities of the commercial banks. Commercial banks, in turn, deposit with the central bank a fraction of the deposits they take from households and businesses as bank reserves (BR). The liabilities of the central bank constitute base (or reserve) money (B = CC + BR). Since the liabilities of the central bank are matched by its assets, base money can also be dened as the sum of central bank assets (B = R + D + NC) (Table 1). The central bank conducts monetary policy by adjusting the size of its balance sheet (B) and by adjusting the money multiplier (mm), dened as the ratio of the money supply to base money:
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mm =
M CC + DEP 1+ c = = . B CC + RR + ER c + r + e
Analytical framework
A stylised version of the balance sheets of the nancial and non-nancial sectors of the economy (presented below) serves as a framework for analysing the conduct of monetary policy in Vietnam. The money supply (M), broadly dened, consists of currency in circulation (CC) and bank deposits (DEP) held by
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As shown in the above equation, the size of the money multiplier depends on the ratios of currency to deposits (c), required reserves to deposits (r), and excess reserves to deposits (e). In the reserve requirement ratio (r), the central bank has an instrument for managing the money supply by changing the money multiplier. In addition, the central bank manages the size of its balance sheet (that is, base money) through open-market operationsbuying and selling domestic-currency securities, mainly
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government bondsand by borrowing from and lending to commercial banks through its lending facilities (for example, the discount and repo windows). When the central bank buys (sells) government debt or lends to (borrows from) banks, its assets (D or NC) and liabilities (BR) go up (down), and with it the money supply. In countries with developed nancial markets, central banks typically rely mainly on open market operationsthat is, buying and selling government bonds in the secondary bond market. Little use is made of the reserve requirement ratio or lending to commercial banks. The reserve requirement ratio is a clumsy and often ineffective tool of monetary policy, especially when commercial banks hold excess reserves, and hence are not constrained by the reserve requirement ratio. Lending to commercial banks via the discount or repo windows is also not an effective way to manage base money. Generally, central banks set the discount interest rate 100200 basis points above the inter-bank interest rate to discourage commercial banks from borrowing reserves except in exceptional circumstances. The opposite is the case in Vietnam. The absence of a liquid secondary government bond market limits the use of conventional open-market operations in Vietnam. Instead, the SBV relies mainly on its lending facilities (renance and repo windows) to manage base money, and uses the reserve requirement ratio to adjust the money multiplier. As a result, it is difcult for the SBV to ne-tune monetary policy or take timely actions. In addition, the SBV routinely resorts to non-market administrative measures, such as caps on interest rates, limitations on the growth rate of bank credit, and restrictions on lending to different sectors of the economyall of which create wellknown distortions and inefciencies in the credit market.
(or closely manage) its exchange rate, it has ipso facto chosen a monetary policy. Under a xed exchange rate regime, the central bank is obliged to intervene in the foreign exchange market, buying foreign reserves (R) whenever there is an excess supply, and selling foreign reserves (R) whenever there is an excess demand in the foreign exchange market. When the central bank intervenes, buying and selling foreign exchange reserves, base money goes up and down, and with it (via the money multiplier) the money supply. That is why, as a general rule, a country that xes its exchange rate cannot have an independent monetary policy. The money supply is, in effect, determined by conditions in the foreign exchange market, in other words by international trade and foreign capital ows. There are, however, exceptions to the general rule. One exception is if a country that xes its exchange rate tightly controls supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, for example by strictly controlling foreign capital inows and outows. The other exception is if a country sterilises the monetary effect of its intervention in the foreign exchange market by matching the purchase (sale) of foreign reserves with the sale (purchase) of domestic securities. Through sterilisation, the central bank can, in principle, increase or reduce its foreign reserves without any effect on the size of its balance sheet (that is, without any effect on base money, and hence on the money supply).
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0 Q1 2006Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2007Q1 2008Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000
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As Figure 1 indicates, 2007, the year Vietnam acceded to the WTO, was a watershed. Foreign direct and indirect investment in Vietnam soared to a level equivalent to 25 per cent of GDP. After nancing a current account decit of about 10 per cent of GDP, the SBV was obliged to buy foreign reserves equivalent to 15 per cent of GDP. The excess supply of foreign exchange ended in the second quarter of 2008, when foreign (indirect) investors, spooked by rising ination and growing trade decits, made a run on the currency, forcing the SBV (in Q2 2008) to sell back to the market about one third of the US$13 billion in foreign reserves it had purchased from the Q1 2007 through Q1 2008. An excess demand for foreign exchange re-emerged in Q1 2009 and continued through Q3 2010 (the most recent quarter for which IFS balance of payments data are available), as domestic residents attempted to convert dong assets into dollars and gold in anticipation of devaluation. Since much of the domestic capital ight in 2009 and 2010 was via the black
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market, it showed up in the balance of payments as negative net errors and omissions, that is, unrecorded capital outow. As a result of the foreign capital ight in 2008 and domestic capital ight in 2009 and 2010, all of the foreign exchange reserves accumulated in 2007 and Q1 2008 were sold back to the market (together with an additional US$1 billion) by the end of 2010, leaving the level of reserves at a precariously low level at the beginning of 2011 (Figure 2).
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2012 The Authors Journal compilation 2012 Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.
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Figure 2 The capital account plus errors and omissions: quarterly (US$ millions)
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-2000 2006 -4000 -6000
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Net FDI
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Portfolio Flows
E&O
denominated sterilisation bonds (claims on the SBV) to commercial banks. However, the level of sterilisation did not match the level of intervention; hence, base money and M2 grew rapidly, leading to an acceleration of ination (discussed below). With the reversal of capital ows from mid2008 onwards, the SBV was again obliged to intervene heavily in the foreign exchange market, selling foreign exchange from its reserves to meet the commercial banks excess demand. To offset the massive reduction in base money that would otherwise have occurred from its sale of foreign exchange to banks, the SBV sterilised its intervention by buying domestic securities and, more signicantly, by lending bank reserves to commercial banks through the SBVs renance and repo lending facilities. As Figures 3 and 4 indicate, the volume of SBV lending to commercial banks exceeded the amount required to sterilise the monetary effect of selling foreign
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exchange to the commercial banks, thereby allowing for an expansion of base money.
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100000 0 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 -1000002005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 -200000
Base Money
early 2009, the money multiplier began to rise dramatically, creating an almost 20 percentage point disparity between the growth rates of base money and M2.
when commercial banks hold excess reserves is clearly revealed in the statistics for the year 2007. In 2007, the SBV was obliged to buy up commercial banks excess supply of foreign exchange, consequent on massive inows of foreign capital. In an attempt to sterilise the monetary impact of its foreign exchange purchases, the SBV, in mid-2007, more than doubled the reserve requirement ratio, but, as indicated in Figure 4, this move did not have the expected effect of lowering the money multiplier. The reason it did not, as Figure 6 indicates, is because commercial banks, at that time, were holding a large stock of excess reserves at the SBV, and hence were not constrained by the reserve requirement ratio. As a result, the rise in the reserve requirement ratio did not force banks to rein in credit growth. Recall that in 2009, the government implemented a stimulus policy to counter the deationary effects of the global recession. At the same time, capital ight required the government to sell off a substantial amount of foreign
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Figure 4 Change (YOY) in base money and its components (VND billions)
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Figure 5 Rate of growth of base money and M2: January 2006 through October 2010 (%)
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M2 Growth Rate
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Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, online.
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6.0
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5.0
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3.0 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011
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Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics, online; State Bank of Vietnam, online.
reserves to prevent an even larger devaluation of the dong than occurred. To sterilise the monetary effect of selling off foreign reserves and to stimulate the economy by easing credit condi8
tions, the SBV lowered the reserve requirement ratio from about 12 per cent to only 2 per cent. The reserve requirement ratio was not revised upward until early 2011, even though by early
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Figure 8 Ratio of reserves to dong and total deposits and the reserve requirement ratio
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Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics, online; State Bank of Vietnam, online.
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2010, it was acknowledged that the economy was overheating and monetary tightening was called for. Lowering the reserve requirement ratio in 2009 worked to raise the money multiplier as the SBV intended it to do, but when macroeconomic conditions changed in 2010, the SBV failed to respond by raising r.
compulsory sterilisation bonds) and lending to commercial banks (through the renance and reverse repo facilities) is shown in Figure 9. The commercial banks were compelled to hold sterilisation bonds in 2007 and 2008, but they were not compelled to borrow from the SBV to sterilise the sale of foreign exchange to the commercial banks in 2009 and 2010. Instead, the commercial banks were offered the opportunity to borrow reserves at interest rates well below market rates (even below the inter-bank rate), creating protable interest arbitrage opportunities. Consequently, commercial banks borrowed heavily from the SBV, at least until April 2011, when spiralling ination eventually led the SBV to raise its lending rates from 7 per cent to 15 per cent, signicantly reducing (if not eliminating) the protability of borrowing reserves. As a result of the banks massive borrowing from the SBV, net reserves (commercial banks deposits at the SBV minus net borrowing from the state bank) fell precipitously to negative levels by the end of 2010, eliminating entirely the liquidity cushion that bank reserves provide (Figure 10).
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Figure 9 SBV borrowing from and lending to commercial banks (VND bill)
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Conclusion
The SBVs attempts to sterilise its heavy intervention in the foreign exchange market are what have largely formed its conduct of monetary policy in recent years. Since sterilisation is a means of nessing rather than correcting the market disequilibria that required intervention in the rst place, the SBV has been forced to adjust the rate at which it pegs the dong to the dollar repeatedly and in ever larger amounts. Moreover, the sterilisation tools at its disposal have not been up to the task, as two waves of double-digit ination in the past ve years attest. One solution might be to oat the currency, but that would simply shift the problem, not solve it. Surges in capital inows and outows that are of magnitude of those of recent years would have caused major swings in the
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-0.10
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Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, online.
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M2 Growth Rate
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Figure 12 Monthly (YOY) money and credit growth rates (lagged) and the CPI ination rate
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nominal and real exchange rate, with deleterious consequences for resource allocation and growth every bit as severe as those associated with monetary instability. Given the importance of export-oriented industrialisation and the under-development of Vietnams nancial sector, Vietnam is currently in no position to oat its currency. One step that could be taken to strengthen the conduct of monetary policy would be to tighten controls on capital ows. Recent measures aimed at restricting gold trading and discouraging the holding of dollar deposits in the banking system are, in essence, forms of capital control. Although these measures have been credited with easing pressure on the currency, it remains to be seen how effective they will turn out to be, since such controls have been found to be notoriously ineffective when differentials on expected returns in domestic and foreign currencies are high. Nonetheless, it would seem to be an auspicious time for the SBV to review its policy on capital controls. Financial liberalisation and development of a liquid bond market are overdue. These measures would strengthen the conduct of mon12
etary policy, and they would facilitate the nancing of the government decits and provide an important instrument for nancing long-term investment. Financial liberalisation would also help the SBV to wean itself from its overreliance on administrative measures, such as caps on interest rates, targets on credit growth, and quotas on lending by sector, which distort credit markets and lead to misallocation of Vietnams scarcest resource capital. Macroeconomic policy is difcult as it can only be understood in a general equilibrium framework. The goods market, money market, and foreign exchange market are inextricably linked by a unique conguration of relative pricesthe interest rate, exchange rate, and ination rate. That being the case, the authorities can attempt to anchor the macroeconomy by xing (or targeting) one of those relative prices, but it cannot simultaneously target all of them. Attempting to do so by administrative directives, as the SBV wont do, all but guarantees that macro disequilibrium in one manifestation or another will be a permanent feature of the economy.
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Journal Code: APEL Article No: 1335 Page Extent: 12 Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited Proofreader: Emily Delivery date: 28 March 2012 Copyeditor:
Query References q1
Query AUTHOR: A short title running head was not supplied. Please check if this one is suitable and, if not, please supply a short title that can be used as a running head. AUTHOR: Please suppy current position title of the authors (e.g. researcher, professor, etc.). AUTHOR: Please note that A Stylised Version of the Financial System has been set as Table 1. Please check and conrm that this is OK. Also, please check if the entries in the table are correct. AUTHOR: As Table 1 has not been mentioned in the text, an attempt has been made to insert a Table 1 citation into a relevant point in the text. Please check and conrm that this is OK; otherwise, please provide clear guidance on where it should be mentioned in the text. AUTHOR: Please provide the full form of IFS. AUTHOR: Figures 2 and 10 was not mentioned in the text. An attempt has been made to insert Figure 2 and Figure 10 citations into a relevant point in the text. Please check that these are OK. If not, please provide clear guidance on where these should be mentioned in the text. AUTHOR: Attempting to do so by administrative . . . This sentence has been reworded for clarity. Please check and conrm that it is correct. AUTHOR: Please note that, as per journal style, colored gures have been converted to black and white. If you would like the gures published in color, please contact the production editor. AUTHOR: Please check and conrm that the sources of Figures 112 are correct. AUTHOR: Please supply the full form of E&O and FDI in Figure 2. AUTHOR: Please supply the full form of NFA in Figure 4.
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