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TSX:CEN, AIM:CEO C$9.57 C$16.50 72.4% C$3.83 - C$11.00 246,974 115.2 1,102.1 1,237.9 118.1 4.7%
ON A ROLL
Coastal shares currently trade at 3.1x EV/EBITDAX (2012); our C$16.50 price target is based on 4.5x oneyear forward EBITDAX and is supported by a NAV of C$17.81 per share. Coastal is riding a wave of drilling success this year, achieving a 92% success rate and adding an estimated 70MM in recoverable resources from 11 different production zones. Coastal has identified more than 30 prospects equivalent to two years of drilling inventory. Production is expected to ramp up significantly as the company develops its recent discoveries; we forecast an average production CAGR of 43% from 2010-2013. Production averaged 9,670 boed in 2010.
Closing Price Target Price Potential Return 52 Week Low / High Average Daily Volume MARKET INFO Shares Outstanding (MM) Market Cap (C$MM) Enterprise Value ($MM) Net Total Debt ($MM) M&D Equity Holdings (basic) FY Ending: DEC 31 Reserves (2P, MM boe) Net Production (boed) % Natural Gas Dubai Price Operating Netback (boed) Revenue ($MM) Operating Cash Flow ($MM) EBITDAX ($MM) Capex ($MM) CFPS (FD) EPS (FD) VALUATION EV/EBITDAX P/CF EV/Reserves (2P, boe) EV/Production (boed) NAV 2010 2011E
2012E
2013E
45.7 9,670 12,967 22,838 28,050 21% 17% 11% 10% $78.11 $106.57 $98.75 $90.00 $45.07 $65.18 $56.70 $49.42 177.2 363.9 624.8 702.9 121.7 214.9 378.6 398.6 114.3 236.6 395.6 428.0 133.4 135.0 250.0 260.0 $1.08 $1.85 $3.21 $3.35 $0.14 $0.59 $1.12 $1.05 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 10.8x 5.2x 3.1x 2.9x 9.2x 5.2x 3.0x 2.8x $27.09 $128,018 $95,466 $54,206 $44,133 C$17.81
INITIATING COVERAGE
We are initiating coverage of Coastal Energy (Coastal) with a BUY rating and one-year target price of C$16.50, implying a rate of return of 72%. Coastal has achieved significant exploration success since the start of year; as management further develops its understanding of the local geology on its considerable land package in the Gulf of Thailand, we expect the company to continue to deliver and expand upon its inventory of prospects. We expect funds generated from the current ramp up in production to facilitate that exploration process. Considering the attractive valuation, proven assets, significant production trajectory, expanding inventory of drilling prospects and an experienced management team, we recommend investors build a position in the name.
COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS
Recent drilling success. Coastal has had a successful start to the year adding a management-estimated 70MM bbl of recoverable resources, the majority of which is the result of its exploration of the Miocene play in the Bua Ban North field. Yearto-date, Coastal has discovered 11 production zones through 12 exploration wells. Initial flow rates from the first four wells were above management expectations, producing a total of 7,100 boed or an average of 1,775 boed each. Production is trending higher. Production averaged 9,494 boed in Q2/11, 76% of which was offshore oil. Although regular workover requirements and instances of coning have weighed on production from the Songhkla field, we expect the companys production profile to improve as recent discoveries are brought online. We estimate production to average 28,050 boed in 2013, up from 9,670 boed in 2010. Significant inventory of prospects. Coastal has identified over 30 prospects representing two years of inventory on its 1.4MM acres in the relatively shallow Gulf of Thailand. The company is targeting over 100MM bbl of recoverable resources with its H2/11 drilling campaign. With the majority of prospects at a depth of only 3,000-4,000 feet, wells can be drilled and completed for an average of $2.5MM-$3MM.
Source: stockcharts.com COMPANY DESCRIPTION Coastal produces oil/natural gas from four fields in Thailand, including three located offshore. The majority of the companys 5,000 km2 (1.4MM acres) land holdings are located offshore. The companys production is heavily weighted toward oil; Coastals natural gas production comes from its 36% stake in APICO LLC. Net average production stood at 9,494 boed in Q2/11.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
Improving political environment. After five years of instability, the political climate in Thailand appears to have improved following the recent election. The new government has announced its intention to cut corporate taxes, in part to attract foreign direct investment to the country. Fully funded 2011 capex program. Coastal has budgeted $135MM in capex for 2011, approximately half of which is marked for exploration; with estimated operating cash flow of $215MM, the capex program appears well funded. The balance sheet is solid, with net long term debt of $75MM and a net total debt/cap ratio of 46% as of June 30, 2011. Management has extensive international experience, operating in both onshore and offshore oilproducing areas around the world including Southeast Asia. Of note, Mr. Lloyd Smith, appointed Chairman earlier this year, previously served as the UK ambassador to Thailand. Management and directors own 4.7% of Coastal shares outstanding. In addition, Oscar Wyatt Jr. owns 27MM shares, 19MM of which are subject to a voting trust agreement, giving outside directors voting control of an additional 17% of Coastal shares outstanding. Valuation at discount to comparables. Coastal shares currently trade at 3.1x EV/EBITDAX (2012) at a 23% discount to a sample of Southeast Asian and Australasian comparables. Our one-year target of C$16.50 is based on an EV/EBITDAX multiple of 4.5x. We estimate a NAV of C$17.81 per Coastal share.
VALUATION
Significant upside potential We rate shares of Coastal BUY with a one-year price target of C$16.50, implying a rate of return of 72%. Our target price is based on a 4.5x EV/EBITDAX multiple applied one year forward (Q3/12-Q2/13); with the company generating meaningful levels of EBITDAX and an estimated reserve life of 20 years, we believe this valuation method is appropriate for Coastal shares. We note our price target is supported by our C$17.81 net asset value (NAV) estimate.
Exhibit 1 - Southeast Asian and Australasian Oil & Gas Comparables as of August 25, 2011
Mkt (In US$ unless noted otherwise) Company Ticker Price Cap AWE Limited AWE-AU A$1.24 644.5 BNG-T C$1.05 54.6 Bengal Energy Niko Resources NKO-T C$53.31 2,795.3 C$3.12 176.9 Pan Orient Energy POE-V Premier Oil PMO-LN 3.16 2,373.0 Salamander Energy SMDR-LN 2.28 573.7 Stream Oil & Gas SKO-V C$0.90 58.6 TAG Oil TAO-T C$6.72 336.5 Average Coastal Energy CEN-T Netback / BOE $37.12 $21.34 $20.40 $58.70 $21.34 $40.50 $24.90 $43.34 $45.07 C$9.57 1,093.2 EV ($M) 593.2 41.4 3,114.9 120.2 3,040.4 798.7 58.8 268.2 1,238.2 RLI EV/Prod Avg Prod Per Day 2010 % Gas 2011E (2010) (2010) 16,682 50% 16,986 12.0 $35,558 101 58% 400 13.5 nm 49,000 94% 54,167 11.3 $63,570 3,884 0% 2,825 nm $30,940 42,500 63% 42,500 16.8 $71,538 20,300 32% 22,500 8.9 $39,343 364 3% 1,098 140.7 $161,452 438 0% 3,000 nm nm 33.9 $67,067 9,670 21% 12,967 P/CF 2011 5.5x nm 11.9x 3.5x 2.5x 1.4x 5.3x nm 5.0x 5.3x 12.9 $128,042 EV/Prod EV/ (2011) Reserves $34,922 $8.09 $103,414 nm $57,506 $15.48 $42,546 $3.77 $71,538 $11.66 $35,497 $12.05 $53,522 $3.14 $89,415 nm $61,045 $9.03 $95,484 $27.10
Company AWE Limited Bengal Energy Niko Resources Pan Orient Energy Premier Oil Salamander Energy Stream Oil & Gas TAG Oil Average Coastal Energy
EV/EBITDAX 2010 2011 2012 3.7x 4.8x 3.0x nm nm nm 10.0x 11.1x 11.0x 1.6x 1.8x nm 6.7x 4.5x 2.7x 5.0x 2.1x 2.1x nm 5.0x 1.0x nm nm nm 5.4x 4.9x 4.0x 10.8x 5.2x 3.1x
2012 4.0x nm 11.6x 2.3x 1.7x 1.2x 1.3x 5.8x 4.0x 3.0x
Operations Australia, Indonesia, Texas Australia, India India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Trinidad Thailand, Indonesia North Sea, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, PNG Albania New Zealand Thailand
EV = market capitalization + net debt +/- working capital; EBITDAX = EBITDA before exploration expenses; RLI = 2P Reserves/Production
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
Exhibit 2 - Coastal Net Asset Value NAV Approach (in US$) Current Proven/Probable Development Potential: (Possible & Potential Resources) Songkhla A - Eocene Songkhla A - Oligocene Songkhla H - Oligocene Songkhla - Other Bua Ban - Eocence Bua Ban - Miocene Bua Ban - Oligocene Bua Ban North Bua Ban - Other APICO Other Total Development Potential Total NPV Net Debt Proceeds From Options/Warrants NAV C$/US$ Exchange Rate NAV (C$) Assumptions: FD Shares Outstanding (MM) Long-Term Dubai (US$/bbl) Long-Term Natural Gas Price ($US/mcf) Long-Term Price Escalation 115.2 $87.50 $7.00 1.0% Total (MMboe) 98.0 Risk Adjusted Factor Total (MM) 100% 98.0 NPV10- NPV10-AT NPV10-AT AT/boe Total Per Share $11.04 1,082.1 $9.40
4.0 5.5 12.3 40.5 0.4 0.2 4.6 144.4 48.8 83.3 34.5 378.4
50% 50% 56% 20% 50% 50% 50% 59% 20% 30% 25% 40%
2.0 2.8 6.8 8.1 0.2 0.1 2.3 85.5 9.8 25.0 8.6 151.1
$7.94 $7.94 $9.54 $3.18 $7.67 $7.67 $7.67 $10.36 $3.07 $2.14 $3.12
16.1 21.8 64.9 25.7 1.5 0.7 17.7 885.4 29.9 53.4 26.9 1,144.1 2,226.2 (118.1) 11.1 2,119.2 $0.97 2,050.8
$0.14 $0.19 $0.56 $0.22 $0.01 $0.01 $0.15 $7.69 $0.26 $0.46 $0.23 $9.93 $19.33 ($1.03) $0.10 $18.40 $17.81
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
CATALYSTS
Key catalysts include further flow tests, drilling at Bua Ban Potential catalysts for the shares include the following: 2011 August-September Flow test results from three more wells at Bua Ban North B. September Install MOPU (mobile offshore production unit) at Bua Ban North A and begin production testing on wells drilled earlier this year. August-October Exploration/appraisal drilling at Bua Ban North A to further define extent of Miocene. Q4/11 Exploration drilling at Bua Ban South. Q4/11 Drill commitment well on G5/50 Block. Q4/11 Drill water injection wells at Songkhla A, subject to government approval. 2012 Further exploration drilling at Bua Ban North A/B. Further exploration drilling at Songkhla H likely mid-year, following receipt of the production license. APICO set to drill exploration well on L27-43 Block (onshore) targeting potentially significant structure.
THAILAND
Moving past the volatility? Located in Southeast Asia (Exhibit 3), Thailand has gone through a period of volatility over the last few years after a military coup in September 2006 ousted then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. In early 2008, a pro-Thaksin coalition government was formed, protested against and dissolved following the court ruling that the coalition had violated election laws. Thaksin supporters, known as the Red Shirts, rioted periodically in 2009 and 2010, although Thaksin had fled abroad in late 2008. In July 2011, Thaksins sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the federal election and has since been appointed Prime Minister. Thailand ranks 43rd on Euromoneys country risk rating; China ranks 39th and Brazil 42nd. According to the CIA Factbook, the country has a free-enterprise economy, generally pro-investment policies and well-developed infrastructure. We note coastal areas of the country are impacted by the Pacific cyclone season from June-November. Exhibit 3 Map of Thailand
Source: www.thailand-maps.com
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) David Buma 416.603.7381 ext. 240 db@mpartners.ca
Exhibit 4 - Thailand Oil Production (1980-2009) 360 300 Thousand Bopd 240 180 120 60 0 1980 Source: EIA. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
ASSET DESCRIPTION
Majority of assets located offshore Thailand Coastal was formed following the 2006 merger of PetroWorld Corp and NuCoastal, which each held 50% of Block G5/43. NuCoastal also held significant acreage onshore in northeastern Thailand. At the same time, NuCoastal acquired an additional 10.7% of APICO from PH Gas LP, bringing its ownership of APICO to 36.1%. PetroWorld, which traded on the TSX Venture at the time, changed its name to Coastal Energy as part of that process. Today, Coastal owns assets in four producing fields in Thailand. The majority of Coastals production and exploration efforts are focused offshore, where the company has holdings of approximately 5,000 km2 (1.4MM acres). The periodic land relinquishment for Coastal is next scheduled for 2013. Average production was 9,494 boed in Q2/11, with 7,203 bbld of oil (offshore) and 2,291 boed of natural gas (onshore). We profile the companys operating areas below.
OFFSHORE
Offshore wells generally shallow, inexpensive Coastals offshore holdings are located in the Gulf of Thailand with average water depths of 50-100 feet. Wells in the fields are generally shallow at 3,0004,000 feet and can be drilled and completed for $2.5MM-$3MM. The companys holdings consist of Blocks G5/43 and G5/50. The companys three producing fields, Songkhla, Bua Ban, and Bua Ban North, are in Block G5/43 and account for all of Coastals oil production. The production licenses governing those three fields encompass an area of 347 km2. Offshore reserves stood at 27.1MM bbl at year-end of which 8.9MM boe was classified as developed/producing; management estimates exploration success since that Source: Company reports. time has added almost 70MM bbls in recoverable resources. We have assumed three-quarters of that total will be converted to 2P reserves. Producing light/medium oil, Coastal receives approximately 95% of the Dubai benchmark price for its offshore production. The companys offshore exploration drilling program this year has been focused on the Bua Ban field, achieving a 92% success rate on 12 exploration wells drilled to date. The Miocene trend has proven to be a successful play at Bua Ban North A & B, having been previously considered unproductive in the Songkhla basin. With positive results stemming from the eastern fault block, the company believes it could extend the field along the Miocene fault extending over three kilometers between Bua Ban North A and B. In 2010, the companys exploration drilling program was split between the Songkhla and Bua Ban fields and achieved a success rate of 33%. Of note, wells targeting the Oligocene interval at Bua Ban generally encountered thinner pay zones than expected and had led to a reduction in 2P reserve estimates in 2010.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
BUA BAN/BUA BAN NORTH Production from the Bua Ban field averaged 1,418 bopd in Q2/11 and has experienced a steady decline since production from the field began at 3,100 bopd in Q3/10. Development of Bua Ban has revealed that the reservoir is significantly different from what had been expected, with channel sands of varying width but generally thinner pay zones and the reservoir pressure tending to be low requiring submersible pumps. Coastal is currently in the process of adding water supply to increase injection volumes to improve the reservoir performance and is evaluating development of the reservoir with horizontal wells and fracture stimulation. Exploration efforts this year have focused on the Bua Ban North A & B fields and proven highly successful, reporting a 92% success rate on 12 exploration wells drilled year-to-date. The companys success this year has generally occurred in the Miocene, opening it up as a prospective play; with the Miocene previously considered unproductive, this has allowed the company to begin remapping other plays. The focus had been on the Oligocene previously. We highlight some of the companys recent activity: May 10, 2011 Bua Ban North B-02 Thicker than anticipated sands encountered in the Miocene with better than expected reservoir quality. The reservoir characteristics in the Eocene were also better than anticipated. May 16, 2011 Bua Ban North B-03 Drilled to a total depth of 4,420 feet, the well encountered 48 feet of net pay and water saturations of 33%, the lowest water saturation seen to date in the Miocene. The company noted this discovery proved that all Miocene fault block configurations along the western edge of the basin are capable of trapping hydrocarbons.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
With positive flow testing of the first four wells, the full potential of the drilling program should emerge by September as the remaining three wells are tested; we expect Bua Ban North to be a key driver of production growth going forward. Management estimates the recent exploration efforts have added close to 62MM bbls from Bua Ban North to recoverable resources (Exhibit 8). This assumes a 30% recovery factor, although the companys production record from the Miocene is limited to approximately 18 months. Salamander Energy, with production coming from the Miocene in a similar basin to the north, has experienced a recovery factor of approximately 38% via horizontal wells due to the thinner pay there. Coastal anticipates the majority of the resources will be assigned to 2P reserves which would result in the more than doubling of total reserves. Management expects to drill delineation wells to further define the extent of the Miocene in Bua Ban North and remap the Miocene trend along the western side of the basin toward Benjarong. The company currently expects to begin exploration drilling targeting the Miocene at Bua Ban South in Q4/11.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
Total 70.7 54.7 45.7 70.7 9.8 1.4 47.2 3.3 9.0 53.0 4.7 94.0
*Note: Exploration additions are based on management's RF estimate of 30%. Source: Company reports; M Partners estimates.
SONGKHLA Songkhla now a secondary priority Production from Songkhla averaged 5,785 bopd in Q2/11, up significantly from 3,509 bopd in Q4/10, when production was offline for 23 days due to the upgrade of platform processing equipment and an active typhoon season. The Songkhla field was the first source of offshore oil production for Coastal, beginning in November 2008 at approximately 3,000 bopd from the lower Oligocene (8,000-9,000 feet). With a lack of water injection support, production has been affected by coning. Despite a successful exploration drilling campaign at Songkhla in 2010, additional work is not likely in the area until at least Q4/11 due to the ongoing work at Bua Ban North. In Q4/10, the company drilled three exploration wells that discovered new reservoirs in the Songkhla East and Songkhla North zones. Management estimates those reservoirs hold 26MM and 54MM bbls OOIP, respectively however, because these three wells are not in communication with the main Songkhla reservoir, they are not benefitting from existing water wells. Potentially starting in Q4/11 or Q1/12 following EIA approval, Coastal intends to drill water injection wells required for the eastern fault block at Songkhla due to lack of aquifer support. The company is also considering drilling 4-5 development wells in the Songkhla North and East zones.
Exhibit 9 - Coastal Production By Field 12,000 9,000 Boed 6,000 3,000 0 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Onshore Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11
Songkhla
Bua Ban
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
ONSHORE
Onshore natural gas production nonoperated, captive market Production net to Coastal from its Sinphuhorm onshore assets is approximately 13MMcfd of natural gas and 55 boed of condensates (2,291 boed). Through its 36.1% stake in APICO LLC, Coastal owns a 12.6% working interest of the Sinphuhorm gas field operated by Hess Corporation (HES-NYSE, not rated). The Sinphuhorm field supplies the Nam Phong power plant operated by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand under a 15-year sales agreement signed in 2006. Gross production at Sinphuhorm is currently 102MMcfd, up from 83MMcfd three years ago. Production growth at Sinphuhorm is a function of increased demand in the region as it is a captive market given the lack of infrastructure; Coastal estimates the maximum flow rate is 140MMcfd. The natural gas price received by APICO is adjusted monthly, based on the six-month rolling average of the Singapore fuel oil price and currently stands at approximately $9.40/mcf. Through APICO, Coastal also owns working interests in other onshore assets in northeast Thailand, including in the Dong Mun, Si That and L15/43 exploration blocks (Exhibit 10). Total onshore reserves stood at 20.9MM boe at December 31, 2010. Although APICO is generally concentrated on production given the extended reserve life and captive market, the company is set to drill an exploration well on L27-43 Block over the next 12 months, targeting a potentially significant structure. Exhibit 10 Coastals Onshore Interests
LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Coastal produces into its partially owned floating storage and offloading vessel (FSO) in the Bua Ban field as infrastructure in the Gulf of Thailand is limited; major infrastructure investments in the region are unlikely in the near-term given current levels of production combined with ongoing security concerns in the southern portion of the country. As such, production is stored in the FSO; PTT PCL, the national energy company (PTT-SET, not rated), regularly sends a tanker to the FSO to pick up batches of 150K-200K bbls at a time. Onshore, with limited infrastructure, the companys ability to market the produced natural gas is exclusively a function of local demand.
COMPANY OUTLOOK
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) David Buma 416.603.7381 ext. 240 db@mpartners.ca
Exhibit 11 - Coastal Prospects Unrisked STOOIP Bua Ban North A & B - Miocene 392.6 Bua Ban North A & B - Upper Oligocene 27.2 Total 419.8 59.0 31.7 90.7 42.0 42.0 84.0 60.9 141.5 202.4 133.9 68.5 202.4 999.3
Recovery Factor 30% 30% 30% 30% 15% 25% 30% 30% 30% 23% 20% 21% 30% 20% 27% 27%
Unrisked Recoverable 117.8 8.2 126.0 17.7 4.8 22.5 12.6 12.6 25.2 14.3 28.3 42.6 40.2 13.7 53.9 270.2
Songkhla H - Miocene M100, M500 Lower Oligocene & Eocene Total Buried Hill - Karstified Limestone Buried Hill 2 - Karstified Limestone Total Bua Ban Terrace - Miocene/Oligocene Bua Ban Terrace - Eocene Total Bua Ban South - Songkhla G - Miocene Bua Ban South - Terrace - Eocene Total As of June 27, 2011 Source: Company reports.
Average production to grow at 42% CAGR from 2010-2013
We estimate an average production CAGR of 42% from 2010-2013; absolute production is expected to grow from 9,670 boed in 2010 to 28,050 boed in 2013E. We expect the development of Bua Ban North A/B to be a key contributor to that growth, as well as potential contributions from Songkhla H and additional drilling in the Bua Ban and Songkhla fields. We expect oil to dominate the companys production as the growth offshore should significantly outpace that of the companys onshore natural gas assets. Our 2011 and 2012 forecasts are based on the following: 2011 We forecast average production of 12,967 boed in 2011, up from 9,670 boed in 2010. However, with 7,000 boed coming from Bua Ban North B since July and potentially another 5,000 boed online by year-end from wells drilled as part of the same program, we estimate the exit rate will exceed 18,000 boed. For the year, we expect oil to account for 83% of total production. 2012 We forecast average production of 22,838 boed, up 76% YOY. We expect further contributions from Bua Ban North as Coastal further exploits that field as well as potentially 5,000 boed from Songkhla H by mid-year once the production license is issued, particularly if the company begins to use a second drilling rig. With onshore natural gas production expected to grow at a relatively slower rate of 12% YOY, the oil/natural gas balance should shift further toward oil.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
Oil
Natural Gas
Exhibit 13 - Coastal Outlook (2009-2013E) (in US$, MM) Dubai Price C$/US$ Net Production (boed) Net Revenue Operating Netback (per boe) EBITDAX Operating Cash Flow Capex Net Total Debt Cash Flow Per Share 2009 $61.77 $1.14 7,416.0 80.5 $29.42 37.4 36.9 (77.7) 59.9 $0.38 2010 $78.11 $1.03 9,670.0 177.2 $45.07 114.3 121.7 (133.4) 109.5 $1.08 2011E $106.57 $0.97 12,967.3 363.9 $65.18 252.4 214.9 (135.0) 25.1 $1.85 2012E $98.75 $0.97 22,837.5 624.8 $56.70 395.6 378.6 (250.0) (116.8) $3.21 2013E $90.00 $0.97 28,050.0 702.9 $49.42 428.0 398.6 (260.0) (266.5) $3.35
KEY SENSITIVITIES
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) David Buma 416.603.7381 ext. 240 db@mpartners.ca
(per share, NAV in C$) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
Change in input
Exhibit 14 - Sensitivity Table Discount Dubai Price Baht/US$ OpEx/boe CF (2012) NAV CF (2012) NAV CF (2012) NAV Rate NAV $4.80 $26.94 $3.30 $17.96 $2.71 $13.92 $16.19 $4.27 $23.88 $3.27 $17.91 $2.88 $15.21 $16.73 $3.74 $20.82 $3.24 $17.86 $3.04 $16.51 $17.27 $3.21 $17.81 $3.21 $17.81 $3.21 $17.81 $17.81 $2.67 $14.75 $3.18 $17.76 $3.38 $19.11 $18.35 $2.14 $11.69 $3.15 $17.71 $3.55 $20.41 $18.89 $1.61 $8.63 $3.12 $17.66 $3.72 $21.69 $19.43 $98.75 $90.00 $0.97 $0.97 $27.59 $25.00 10%
Assumption*
MANAGEMENT PROFILE
Experienced management team Coastal is led by an experienced team. Management has extensive international experience, operating in both onshore and offshore oil-producing areas around the world including Southeast Asia. We highlight key managers below: Randy Bartley, President & CEO: Mr. Bartley brings more than 33 years of industry experience to the company, including exploration and development in both the international onshore and offshore operating environments. Prior to Coastal, Mr. Bartley co-founded and served as COO at Erskine Energy for four years, and held senior management positions at El Paso and Coastal Corporation. William Phelps, CFO: Mr. Phelps has served as CFO of Coastal since its inception in 2005 and as CFO of NuCoastal Corporation and NuCoastal Thailand, the predecessor company of Coastal Energy prior to that. Before entering the oil & gas industry, Mr. Phelps was a VP in the energy investment banking group at Citigroup. John Griffith, Thailand Country Manager: Mr. Griffith joined Coastal in 2008. Prior to this, Mr. Griffith served as Operations Manager for Erskine Energy focusing on domestic natural gas. Mr. Griffith brings more than 30 years experience with international experience including West Africa, the North Sea, Latin America and Southeast Asia at a number of firms, including El Paso. Lloyd Barnaby Smith CMG, Chairman: Mr. Smith was named Chairman of the Board earlier this year, having served as a non-executive director since 2006. Mr. Smith has held a number of senior positions within the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, including Head of South Asia Department and British Ambassador to both Thailand (2000-2003) and Nepal. Mr. Smith replaced Mr. Bernard de Combret, who resigned as Chairman of the Board in April 2011 and had held a number of positions with Elf and Total Group, including Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of Total. M&D own 4.7% of Coastal shares, control 21.7% of votes Total management and directors holdings total 5.3MM shares or 4.7% of shares outstanding. Of note, Oscar Wyatt Jr., founder of NuCoastal Corporation, Coastals predecessor company, owns 27MM shares. As part of the NuCoastal-PetroWorld transaction, Mr. Wyatts share voting rights were limited to 10% with the remaining 19MM shares subject to a voting trust agreement. Those votes exercised by the companys four outside directors.
RISKS
We note the following risks:
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) David Buma 416.603.7381 ext. 240 db@mpartners.ca
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
1971.8% 976.0% nm nm nm nm nm
498.8% 1038.4% nm nm nm nm nm
49.3% 99.5% nm nm nm nm nm
212.8% 552.6% nm nm nm nm nm
13.3% -64.8% nm nm nm nm nm
45.5% 19.7% nm nm nm nm nm
321.6% nm nm nm nm nm nm
105.4% nm nm nm nm nm nm
Balance Sheet Statistics Net Total Debt/Equity Net Total Debt/Capital Net Total Debt/LTM EBITDAX EBIT Coverage ROCE Book Value Source: Company reports; M Partners estimates.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
(0.1) 8.1 (8.5) (0.1) 2.0 23.7 0.7 0.0 1.8 9.4 36.9 17.1 54.0
11.6 0.5 (3.0) (0.0) 0.1 6.0 5.6 9.3 0.0 1.1 31.1 (5.7) 25.5
12.5 3.6 (3.2) 0.1 0.0 3.7 13.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 33.0 19.3 52.4
9.2 6.1 (2.5) (0.2) 0.0 21.4 10.7 0.0 0.0 2.4 47.2 (41.2) 5.9
(28.5) 5.6 (2.3) 1.4 16.6 25.5 (14.0) (9.4) 10.7 4.7 10.4 0.8 11.2
4.9 15.9 (11.0) 1.2 16.7 56.6 16.0 0.0 10.7 10.8 121.7 (26.8) 95.0
(2.4) 0.9 (3.3) 0.3 18.3 13.3 3.2 5.6 0.0 2.8 38.8 (7.3) 31.4
11.8 1.3 (4.3) 0.6 (7.7) 11.7 12.0 0.9 0.0 3.1 29.5 2.8 32.3
27.0 1.1 (3.9) (0.4) (0.7) 19.6 23.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 67.7 (8.1) 59.6
32.4 1.0 (3.6) (0.4) (5.6) 24.4 29.2 1.7 0.0 0.0 79.0 (8.8) 70.2
68.8 4.3 (15.1) 0.1 4.3 68.9 67.8 9.7 0.0 5.9 214.9 (21.4) 193.5
132.0 3.7 (13.4) (1.6) (3.3) 129.7 119.1 12.5 0.0 0.0 378.6 (35.4) 343.2
125.4 4.4 (15.7) (1.6) (1.0) 161.6 112.5 13.0 0.0 0.0 398.6 (37.0) 361.6
Free Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow Change In Working Capital Capital Expenditures Free Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow Per Share Free Cash Flow Per Share Diluted Shares Outstanding Source: Company reports; M Partners estimates.
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Participating Organization Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Venture Exchange Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) David Buma 416.603.7381 ext. 240 db@mpartners.ca
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Toronto Dominion Centre Canadian Pacific Tower 100 Wellington Street West Suite 2201, P.O. BOX 320 Toronto, Ontario M5K 1K2 Main line: 416-603-4343 Fax: 416603-8608 Contact Information Research Alan Breuer David Buma Marc Johnson Michael Krestell Kelsey Lobsinger Ingrid Rico John Safrance Ron Shuttleworth Tom Varesh Trading Jennifer Burke Ben Gelfand Steve Isenberg Cameron Loree Kyle Maister Jeff Maser Tommy Matthews Garett Prins Helen Spasopoulos Mark Vendramin Jeff Zicherman Advisory Christopher Dingle Richard Goodman Kelly Klatik Thomas Kofman Daniel Lee Jason Matheson Michael McIntosh Thupten Samchok ab@mpartners.ca db@mpartners.ca mj@mpartners.ca mk@mpartners.ca kl@mpartners.ca irico@mpartners.ca jsafrance@mpartners.ca rs@mpartners.ca tv@mpartners.ca
jb@mpartners.ca bg@mpartners.ca si@mpartners.ca cl@mpartners.ca km@mpartners.ca jmaser@mpartners.ca tm@mpartners.ca gp@mpartners.ca hs@mpartners.ca mv@mpartners.ca jz@mpartners.ca
As a full-service investment bank, M Partners first priority lies in the financial satisfaction of its clients. In keeping with the firms self-imposed high standards, M Partners approach to investment is anything but standardized. Aiming to create new opportunities and ideas for clients rather than steering them towards typical investment outlets, M Partners has adopted a keen strategy of focused and relevant research. Such knowledge-driven efforts, coupled with the ample skills of the firms management, produces successful services ranging from account management to advisory engagements. M Partners received Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) approval on April 14th 2005 and trades under broker number 97. The team currently has 23 members of varying degrees of financial experience, including principals Thomas Kofman and Steve Isenberg, who have a combined 35 years of financial experience and are well known in the field. This backbone of strong leadership will help chart the firms course into the future. In the coming months and years, M Partners will be focusing on a number of verticals, including environmental and infrastructure, real estate, mining, merchandising and consumer products, and other special situations. M Partners has strong financial backers who have extensive capital markets experience. The firm is a member of IIROC, a participating member of the Toronto Stock Exchange, The TSX Venture Exchange and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). M Partners does not make a market in an equity or equity related security of the subject issuer. Disclosure The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. In accordance with Policy 3400 of IIROC, M Partners hereby confirms as of the date of this report:
Coastal Energy Company Does M Partners or its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of equity securities of the company which is the subject of the research report. Does the analyst or any associate of the analyst responsible for the report or public comment hold shares in the company.
No No
Has M Partners or a director or officer of M Partners or any analyst provided services to the company for remuneration other than normal investment advisory or trade execution services within the preceeding 12 months, (may seek compensation for investment banking services from the company herein within the next 3 months). Is any director, officer, employee or research analyst an officer, director or employee of the company, or serves in an advisory capacity to the company. Has the analyst has viewed the material operations of the company. We define material operations as an issuer's corporate head office and its main production facility or a satellite facility that is representitive of the company's operations. Did M Partners provide investment banking services for the company during the 12 months preceding the publication of the research report? Has the analyst preparing the report received compensation based upon M Partners investment banking reveneus for this issuer?
No
No
No No No
Dissemination All final research reports are disseminated to institutional clients of M Partners simultaneously in electronic form. Hard copies will be disseminated to any client that has requested to be on the distribution list of M Partners. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part without permission is prohibited. Research Analysts The Research Analyst(s) who prepare this report certify that their respective report accurately reflects his/her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies. M Partners compensates its research analysts from a variety of sources and research analysts may or may not receive compensation based upon M Partners investment banking revenue. Rating System Buy: price expected to rise Sell: price is inflated and expected to decrease Hold: properly priced Speculative Buy: price expected to rise; material risk to the investment exists Under review: not currently rated
Summary of Recommendations As of June 30, 2011 Buy Sell Hold Total 40 1 1 42 95% 2% 2% 100%
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