Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in green taking cues from flat to positive
opening in the Asia markets, after a strong finish on U.S. markets amid hopes for a
fresh round of stimulus to revitalize the economy. Asian markets closed on a mixed
note yesterday, as worries over Spain offset optimism over the Greek election
results ahead of two key debt auctions by Spain.
Domestic Indices
US markets rose yesterday and ended at five-week highs after upbeat housing
data, as the Federal Reserve considered further moves to stimulate the economy. A
recent batch of disappointing U.S. economic data such as industrial production,
retail sales and jobless claims, has contributed to the optimism about further
stimulus to be announced following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy
meeting on Wednesday, along with continued concerns about the impact of the
ongoing financial crisis in Europe
BSE HC
Meanwhile, Indian markets rose sharply yesterday as investors are now pinning
hopes that the latest move by Fitch Ratings to cut its credit outlook for India to
'negative' from 'stable' will spur some serious government action on policymaking.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.9
Nifty
0.8
39.6
5,104
MID CAP
0.2
10.1
5,905
(0.0)
(0.5)
6,307
1.1
74.0
6,609
BSE PSU
0.9
64.6
6,964
BANKEX
0.5
61.0 11,282
AUTO
0.2
21.8
METAL
0.2
OIL & GAS
2.1
166.2
7,921
(0.1)
(5.4)
5,712
(Pts)
(Close)
SMALL CAP
BSE IT
Global Indices
Chg (%)
154.0 16,860
9,177
15.3 10,305
Dow Jones
0.8
95.5 12,837
NASDAQ
1.2
34.4
2,930
FTSE
1.7
95.2
5,586
8,656
Markets Today
Nikkei
(0.8)
(65.2)
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,811 / 5,089 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,939 17,019 / 5,129 5,154 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,811 / 5,089 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,731 16,602 / 5,063 5,023 levels.
Hang Seng
(0.1)
(11.1) 19,417
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
INFY
SENSEX
16,602
16,731
16,811
16,939
17,019
NIFTY
5,023
5,063
5,089
5,129
5,154
0.6
18.2
2,842
(0.7)
(15.3)
2,301
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(0.6)
(0.3)
$44.3
WIT
1.9
0.2
$9.1
IBN
2.6
0.8
$30.1
HDB
1.8
0.5
$30.8
Straits Times
Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
News Analysis
CCI set to impose fine on cement companies for cartelisation

HCL Technologies signs US$200mn deal with Disney
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,317
686
Declines
1,371
724
130
81
Unchanged
Net Inflows (June 18, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,714
2,307
(593)
248
42,186
Volumes (` cr)
469
507
(38)
384
(6,083)
BSE
1,866
NSE
9,081
MFs
FII Derivatives (June 19, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,665
1,919
(254)
11,674
Stock Futures
1,682
1,692
(11)
23,257
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
HPCL
GVK Power
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
320
6.4
Company
Godrej Industries
Price (`)
chg (%)
223
(3.2)
14
5.2
Sesa Goa
177
(3.0)
669
4.5
Tata Comm
204
(2.7)
Wockhardt
872
3.8
Apollo Tyres
76
(2.6)
Indian Oil Corp
250
3.5
Hexaware Tech
119
(2.5)
Financial Tech
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
CCI set to
cartelisation
impose
fine
on
cement
companies
for
Competition Commission of India (CCI) is likely to slap a fine on top cement

companies, ruling them guilty of forming a cartel and fixing prices. The
investigation has been going on for the past one year after builders had alleged
that cement makers have been colluding to raise prices, not allowing market
forces of demand and supply to work. However, companies have maintained that
prices reflect the rise in input costs, such as freight and coal costs. CCI can impose
a maximum fine of 10% of the average turnover of a company in previous three
years, if it is found guilty. We have a neutral view on most of the cement sector.
HCL Technologies signs US$200mn deal with Disney

HCL Technologies has signed an IT outsourcing contract with Walt Disney in a deal
valued at over US$200mn (~`1,100cr). According to media reports, Walt Disney
chose HCL Tech over IBM when the outsourcing deal came up for renewal
recently. Walt Disney gave IBM a seven year IT infrastructure management contract
in 2005 which was worth US$730mn.
Under this deal, HCL Tech will update technological infrastructure and update and
support software for the US$41bn company, including its theme parks and resorts
businesses. HCL Tech is known to be strong in total IT outsourcing, where it
undertakes both infrastructure services and application development and
maintenance.
As per media reports, IBM-post the termination of the Disney deal-laid off 2,000
employees in the U.S. who worked on that account. Indian vendors have been
winning many of the big deals coming up for renewal. Every year, about US$4050bn worth of deals come for rebidding, providing Indian players an opportunity
to outbid MNC firms and gain market share. This is benefiting Indian IT players
now when the IT market as a whole is almost stagnant. We maintain Buy rating on
HCL Tech with target price of `560.
Economic and Political News
Government to take tough decisions to revive economy: PM

PM pledges US$10bn for debt-wracked euro zone
Advance tax collection in Q1 up 5% at `33,089cr
Corporate News
BHEL commissions 500 MW unit for Vindhyachal Project

Maruti, Tata Motors, Toyota stop production as demand slump continues
Mindtree gains after coffee magnate (CCD) buys stake
ONGC's Tripura plant to start generation from July end
Veritas downgrades RCom, puts target price at `15
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
June 20, 2012
Country
Event Description
Jobless claims change
US
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
% Change
MAY
(13.70)
(4.00)
FOMC rate decision
JUN 20
0.25
0.25
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
JUN 16
386.00
383.00
Germany
Value
JUN A
45.20
45.20
Value
JUN A
(19.30)
(20.00)
US
PMI Manufacturing
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
Existing home sales
Millions
MAY
4.62
4.57
Germany
PMI Services
Value
JUN A
51.80
51.50
June 25, 2012
US
New home sales
MAY
343.00
345.00
June 26, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
JUN
64.90
64.15
June 28, 2012
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands
JUN
--
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
1Q T
1.90
1.90
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
1Q F
(0.10)
--
July 01, 2012
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
JUN
50.40
--
July 02, 2012
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
MAY
3.80
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
MAY
3.20
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
JUN
45.90
--
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
JUL 5
0.50
0.50
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
JUL 5
1.00
--
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
JUN
69.00
--
US
Unnemployment rate
JUN
8.20
--
July 09, 2012
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
JUN
3.00
--
July 10, 2012
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
MAY
(1.00)
--
June 21, 2012
UK
Unit
Euro Zone
July 05, 2012
July 06, 2012
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
JUN
15.30
--
July 12, 2012
India
% Change
MAY
0.10
--
July 13, 2012
India
% Change
JUN
7.55
--
US
Industrial Production YoY

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
JUN
(1.00)
--
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
JUN
9.60
--
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
8.10
--
July 16, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
July 17, 2012
UK
CPI (YoY)
US
Industrial Production
US
Consumer price index (mom)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
JUN
2.40
--
% Change
JUN
2.80
--
JUN
(0.09)
--
% Change
JUN
(0.30)
--
Market Strategy
June 20, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
1.0
(6.0)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.8
9.4
10.0
9.9
Apr-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.2
7.6
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Imports yoy growth
60
45
30
15
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

75
May-11
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Dec-11
48.0
Nov-11
0.0
Oct-11
50.0
Sep-11
2.0
Jul-11
52.0
Jun-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
(15)
(3.2)
(5.0)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
9.5
0.1
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

12.0
2.7
2.5
Mar-12
(4.0)
4.1
3.4
Feb-12
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
(2.0)
3QFY10
3.0
2QFY10
1QFY10
4.0
4QFY09
2.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
3.7
4.0
Jan-12
5.3
5.0
10.0
6.0
Dec-11
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.0
6.1
Nov-11
8.0
6.7
Oct-11
7.6
7.4
9.5
10.0
8.0
Sep-11
8.2
Aug-11
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.2
8.5
9.0
12.0
Jul-11
9.4
Jun-11
9.8
May-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
130
2,520
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
18.5
16.2
3.9
3.3
22.8
22.3
1.8
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
113
183
5,213
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.6
6.2
1.1
0.9
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
305
345
2,604
2,715
3,041
15.3
15.3
29.2
32.8
10.5
9.3
2.4
2.0
26.0
23.3
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
76
100
3,836
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.3
5.7
1.1
1.0
19.7
18.4
0.4
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,665
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.3
8.4
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
460
514
695
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.2
8.1
2.3
1.9
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,538
1,835
44,492
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.3
12.2
5.3
4.2
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
301
372
6,999
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.5
11.3
2.6
2.2
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,900
9,429
27,944
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.2
18.9
4.9
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
93
164
320
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Accumulate
134
146
11,352
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
18.8
14.9
3.3
2.8
18.6
20.3
1.6
1.3
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,463
1,594
2,432
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.4
11.0
2.7
2.2
24.0
21.9
1.3
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,007
2,221
40,081
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
14.3
13.6
6.8
5.2
54.8
43.3
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
85
135
349
7,950
8,904
5.5
6.0
25.1
38.6
3.4
2.2
0.4
0.3
12.1
16.4
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
695
821
42,672
36,010
40,882
10.0
10.0
47.7
53.3
14.6
13.0
2.9
2.5
21.3
20.6
0.9
0.8
Maruti
Buy
1,091
1,510
31,514
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.6
10.8
1.8
1.6
15.3
15.5
0.5
0.4
Motherson Sumi
Buy
159
216
6,237
23,342
26,366
7.8
8.2
13.3
18.0
12.0
8.9
2.9
2.3
26.2
28.4
0.4
0.4
Subros
Buy
31
36
186
1,244
1,402
8.4
8.3
4.5
5.1
6.9
6.1
0.7
0.7
9.9
11.0
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
238
299
63,509 189,676 210,905
12.5
12.6
39.8
45.2
6.0
5.3
2.5
2.0
44.3
41.6
0.4
0.3
TVS Motor
Buy
33
44
1,546
7,690
8,459
6.1
6.0
5.0
5.5
6.5
5.9
1.2
1.0
19.0
18.6
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Sell
767
498
16,243
8,760
10,023
7.6
7.5
18.2
20.7
42.1
37.0
5.7
5.1
14.4
14.6
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
283
2,039
4,195
4,837
11.0
11.0
30.1
32.4
9.4
8.7
1.6
1.5
18.4
17.6
1.0
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
212
51,779
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.0
8.8
1.8
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Neutral
162
1,456
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
9.6
16.2
16.8
10.0
3.3
2.7
20.7
29.7
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
114
142
7,342
12,451
14,265
7.9
8.3
8.0
9.5
14.3
12.1
1.9
1.7
13.9
14.9
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
39
67
319
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.6
2.9
0.5
0.4
13.7
14.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
55
73
1,406
6,686
7,200
8.5
8.8
10.6
12.2
5.2
4.5
1.0
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,601
1,992
1,804
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
11.2
9.6
1.9
1.7
17.4
18.4
0.3
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
455
5,417
5,514
5,559
9.8
9.6
29.7
28.4
15.3
16.0
2.9
2.6
20.2
16.9
0.9
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,228
23,051
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
17.4
15.1
3.0
2.7
18.0
19.0
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
171
26,264
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
16.9
16.2
3.3
3.0
18.5
19.4
2.2
1.8
India Cements
Neutral
81
2,480
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.2
6.4
0.7
0.7
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
64
79
785
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.4
4.0
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
153
3,633
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
10.5
9.0
1.5
1.3
15.6
16.0
1.7
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,639
9,195
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
17.4
11.9
4.2
3.6
21.6
25.8
1.4
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,445
39,594
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.6
14.8
2.8
2.4
16.8
17.4
1.9
1.8
195
273
1,028
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
8.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
11.4
11.9
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
254
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.5
4.9
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,134
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.4)
(24.0)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
120
166
4,003
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
8.0
7.1
1.2
1.1
16.1
15.8
2.7
2.5
ITNL
Buy
181
265
3,520
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
8.2
6.8
1.2
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
48
61
1,271
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
18.8
10.4
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
70
88
14,864
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.2
5.0
16.5
14.0
1.4
1.3
8.5
9.3
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,330
1,553
81,497
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
18.8
17.4
2.8
2.5
16.1
15.3
1.5
1.3
Madhucon Proj
Buy
35
70
258
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
7.5
7.5
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Accumulate
37
41
952
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
22.6
19.2
0.4
0.4
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
87
607
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.2
6.0
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
46
1,516
11,592
12,993
8.4
8.4
1.8
3.2
25.4
14.3
0.5
0.5
2.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
133
182
1,992
2,789
3,147
10.6
10.7
8.4
10.4
15.7
12.7
2.1
1.8
15.0
15.6
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
207
265
1,024
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.5
29.4
8.8
7.0
0.8
0.7
9.6
11.0
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
141
7,033
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.7
3.3
0.6
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
114
6,402
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
5.1
4.5
0.8
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,002
1,476
41,468
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.6
7.2
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
671
925
26,257
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.3
4.5
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
335
389
19,242
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.4
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
49
53
2,868
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.2
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
405
493
17,950
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.9
4.4
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
78
5,760
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.7
3.9
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
407
468
6,030
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Accumulate
96
107
3,371
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
4.1
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
428
7,318
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.6
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
643
95,085
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.3
17.0
4.1
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
537
567
126,342
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
19.0
15.1
3.7
3.1
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
826
1,174
94,986
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.2
10.2
1.5
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
89
113
11,333
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
171
190
7,358
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.2
3.9
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
Neutral
89
7,105
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.5
4.1
0.6
0.6
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
926
4,490
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.3
5.0
1.0
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
252
286
12,710
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
10.3
8.2
1.9
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
236
262
6,890
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.3
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
751
1,041
25,479
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
24
2,696
1,440
1,635
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.1
6.3
5.8
1.2
1.1
19.9
18.6
St Bk of India
Buy
2,103
2,469
141,127
68,311
79,649
3.6
3.6
230.4
273.4
9.1
7.7
1.5
1.3
18.2
18.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
100
126
6,023
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.9
3.3
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
74
4,886
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.4
4.1
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
202
261
11,129
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.7
4.0
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
62
78
2,222
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.3
2.7
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
58
2,854
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.4
4.7
0.8
0.7
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
323
450
11,428
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.5
7.8
2.0
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,885
37,261
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
31.0
26.2
10.5
8.3
38.0
35.4
3.2
2.7
520
633
6,214
5,835
6,824
6.3
6.7
20.7
27.5
25.1
18.9
9.8
7.3
42.7
44.3
1.0
0.9
1,107
15,054
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
38.2
43.8
29.0
25.3
34.5
27.1
130.2
119.9
4.9
4.3
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
109
18,980
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
26.3
22.2
9.5
7.8
39.3
42.0
3.2
2.8
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,604
10,950
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
25.3
21.1
7.8
6.3
34.0
32.9
3.2
2.6
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
559
19,011
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.5
20.6
6.7
5.4
31.3
38.4
3.3
2.8
HUL
Neutral
449
97,041
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
31.8
27.4
23.8
18.6
82.7
76.2
3.6
3.1
ITC
Neutral
249
194,757
29,638
34,159
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
26.7
22.9
8.6
7.0
35.3
33.8
6.3
5.4
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
171
11,034
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
25.8
21.1
6.9
5.4
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,582
44,176
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.4
31.0
23.5
16.0
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
105
136
6,487
7,011
7,711
9.7
10.0
6.3
7.5
16.7
14.0
1.6
1.5
9.5
10.9
0.8
0.8
HCL Tech
Buy
472
560
32,735
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
12.5
11.0
2.8
2.3
22.3
21.3
1.4
1.2
Hexaware
Accumulate
119
128
3,518
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.1
11.1
2.8
2.4
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Accumulate
2,479
2,792
142,326
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.6
14.2
3.5
3.0
22.5
20.8
3.1
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
160
177
1,786
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.5
8.6
1.3
1.1
13.6
13.2
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
108
1,917
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
12.0
9.4
2.2
1.8
19.3
18.7
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
77
86
9,044
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
10.2
9.7
1.4
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
615
2,501
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.4
10.5
2.1
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Accumulate
340
373
7,143
5,608
5,964
17.7
17.3
35.5
36.8
9.6
9.2
1.3
1.2
13.9
12.6
0.8
0.7
NIIT
Buy
43
52
710
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
6.1
4.9
1.0
0.9
16.7
18.4
0.5
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
374
1,497
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
10.1
9.3
1.6
1.4
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.9
TCS
Neutral
1,274
249,311
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
20.2
18.0
6.2
5.0
30.5
27.7
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
685
725
8,740
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
9.0
8.3
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.3
Wipro
Accumulate
399
452
98,201
43,150
48,541
20.0
20.5
25.9
30.1
15.4
13.3
3.0
2.5
19.1
19.0
1.9
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
194
269
3,547
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.4
12.0
3.2
2.7
24.1
24.4
2.0
1.7
HT Media
Buy
97
148
2,273
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
10.7
9.1
1.3
1.2
13.4
13.8
0.6
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
85
137
2,676
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.1
9.3
3.7
3.3
34.6
37.7
1.7
1.6
PVR
Neutral
150
389
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.1
9.5
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
269
10,601
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
12.9
11.2
3.0
2.5
26.0
25.1
3.9
3.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
458
9,732
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.5
7.8
1.2
1.1
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Neutral
344
217,251
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
14.3
13.2
3.9
3.2
30.4
26.8
2.3
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
22
588
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.0
2.7
8.4
6.3
0.3
0.1
4.2
5.5
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
116
139
49,204
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
7.9
7.0
1.5
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.0
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
123
23,491
83,463
91,313
9.0
9.9
13.7
18.1
9.0
6.8
0.7
0.6
7.9
9.6
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
634
14,140
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.5
7.1
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Accumulate
268
296
4,501
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
9.1
8.4
1.6
1.4
19.0
18.2
2.3
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
355
447
2,283
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
6.0
5.3
0.8
0.7
15.6
15.3
1.5
1.1
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
60
54
15,451
171
187
67,935
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
2.6
3.6
23.4
16.7
1.3
1.2
19.1
20.9
9.0
8.2
2.2
1.8
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.3
27.1
24.4
3.6
3.1
1.1
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
SAIL
Neutral
91
37,588
50,914
60,785
14.6
15.1
9.4
10.5
9.7
8.7
0.9
0.8
9.2
9.6
1.2
Sesa Goa
Buy
177
206
15,383
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.0
4.0
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
94
123
31,707
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.7
4.9
0.6
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
420
499
40,810 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.8
6.4
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
328
372
62,663
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.4
6.8
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.9
2.1
GAIL
Buy
336
389
42,640
50,472
55,502
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.5
9.1
1.7
1.5
19.0
17.2
0.1
ONGC
Buy
268
321
228,945 156,331 159,043
37.7
36.3
31.3
32.6
8.5
8.2
1.5
1.4
18.7
17.3
1.2
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
737
897
241,416 316,404 319,119
11.2
12.0
63.5
68.7
11.6
10.7
1.2
1.1
11.7
11.4
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
52
91
981
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.9
5.7
1.9
1.5
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
105
156
3,064
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.6
7.2
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.7
0.6
Aventis*
Neutral
2,116
4,873
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.3
20.4
4.0
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
723
953
14,804
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
16.7
14.2
4.3
3.4
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
310
379
24,870
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.8
16.4
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,544
26,194
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
18.5
16.6
3.8
3.2
22.4
21.0
2.6
2.3
Dishman Pharma
Buy
55
92
441
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.9
4.8
0.5
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,005
16,983
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.4
24.3
7.6
6.6
30.8
29.0
5.5
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
53
82
488
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
7.2
6.0
1.1
0.9
15.9
16.3
0.9
0.7
Ipca labs
Buy
345
435
4,342
2,850
3,474
20.3
20.3
26.6
32.7
13.0
10.6
3.3
2.7
28.2
27.9
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
519
647
23,187
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
17.5
16.0
4.6
3.6
27.0
25.2
2.7
2.1
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
111
178
784
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
6.7
5.0
0.6
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.0
0.8
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
482
20,327
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.5
16.2
5.1
4.1
43.1
28.1
1.7
1.6
Sun Pharma
Neutral
598
61,619
9,272
11,080
38.6
38.0
22.7
22.6
26.4
26.5
4.4
3.9
17.9
15.6
5.0
3.9
CESC
Buy
273
342
3,406
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.0
5.6
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
62
77
932
1,557
1,573
28.8
28.5
10.4
10.9
6.0
5.7
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.2
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
150
158
123,600
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
12.1
10.7
1.5
1.4
13.0
13.5
2.4
2.2
47
78
1,378
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.6
3.7
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
189
32,032
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.7
14.1
1.3
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
73
115
3,042
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.4
9.1
3.1
2.3
MLIFE
Buy
309
376
1,260
814
897
26.9
27.0
31.3
33.9
9.9
9.1
1.0
0.9
10.2
10.1
1.9
1.7
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
315
119,527
80,961
86,705
33.5
34.0
17.2
20.8
18.3
15.1
2.1
1.9
11.5
12.3
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
77
25,566
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.0
16.3
1.8
1.6
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
64
13,117
22,288
23,871
32.1
32.7
4.4
6.0
14.4
10.6
0.4
0.3
2.4
3.2
2.0
1.7
Telecom
zOthers
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
186
246
1,857
3,569
4,172
8.6
9.2
17.3
22.3
10.8
8.4
2.3
1.9
22.9
25.3
0.5
0.4
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,443
1,628
3,065
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
23.8
16.0
4.9
4.0
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.3
CRISIL
Neutral
1,070
7,508
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.2
26.8
14.1
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
260
288
329
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
9.0
8.1
1.9
1.6
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Force Motors
Buy
444
680
579
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
8.7
7.2
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Finolex Cables
Buy
41
61
633
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
5.4
4.1
0.7
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Goodyear India
Buy
320
374
739
1,511
1,692
7.9
9.0
31.5
41.3
10.2
7.8
2.0
1.7
21.2
23.5
0.3
0.2
Graphite India
Buy
88
124
1,716
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.1
6.3
0.9
0.9
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.8
HEG
Buy
201
242
805
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
8.9
6.1
0.9
0.8
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
112
160
258
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.1
7.0
1.4
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,524
2,674
2,231
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
21.7
17.9
3.1
2.7
15.5
15.9
1.3
1.1
INEOS ABS India
Accumulate
714
777
1,256
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
20.1
15.6
2.9
2.5
15.4
17.2
1.2
1.0
ITD Cementation
Accumulate
215
236
248
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
7.9
5.6
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
221
268
1,784
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
34.7
20.4
2.9
2.7
8.4
13.9
1.7
1.4
MCX
Buy
1,017
1,598
5,185
610
702
65.5
67.0
67.9
79.9
15.0
12.7
4.4
3.7
29.1
28.9
5.6
4.3
MRF
Buy
10,105
13,106
4,286
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
7.6
6.2
1.5
1.2
16.5
17.4
0.5
0.5
Greenply Industries
Buy
210
309
507
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
7.1
4.8
1.2
0.9
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
2,807
3,131
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
29.6
23.2
15.4
12.5
57.4
59.5
3.6
2.8
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
475
571
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
10.6
9.0
2.5
2.0
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Sintex Industries
Buy
58
79
1,579
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.2
3.7
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
261
392
245
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
3.9
3.3
0.8
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Buy
32
40
1,535
5,647
6,513
3.5
6.5
1.9
4.9
16.3
6.5
38.3
5.5
0.4
0.3
TVS Srichakra
Buy
308
462
236
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.3
3.3
1.2
0.9
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
TAJ GVK
Buy
59
108
371
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.5
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
PER(x)
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
345
420
532
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
5.4
4.7
0.8
0.7
16.1
16.1
0.3
0.1
United Spirits
Accumulate
651
730
8,508
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
21.0
15.2
1.6
1.5
8.1
10.3
1.5
1.4
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
366
413
744
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.3
10.7
2.2
1.8
18.8
18.6
1.0
0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 19, 2012
Market Outlook
June 20, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Market Outlook

June 20, 2012

OIL & GAS

CCI set to impose fine on cement companies for cartelisation

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 18, 2012)

FII Derivatives (June 19, 2012)

Indian Oil Corp

Competition Commission of India (CCI) is likely to slap a fine on top cement

HCL Technologies signs US$200mn deal with Disney

Economic and Political News

Government to take tough decisions to revive economy: PM

BHEL commissions 500 MW unit for Vindhyachal Project

Global economic events release calendar

June 20, 2012

Jobless claims change

FOMC rate decision

Initial Jobless claims

June 25, 2012

New home sales

June 26, 2012

June 28, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

July 01, 2012

July 02, 2012

BOE Announces rates

ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

July 09, 2012

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

July 10, 2012

Industrial Production (YoY)

June 21, 2012

July 05, 2012

July 06, 2012

July 12, 2012

July 13, 2012

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

July 16, 2012

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

July 17, 2012

Consumer price index (mom)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary