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JOSHUA ROSENBAUM
JOSHUA PEARL
ValueCo Corporation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in millions, fiscal year ending December 31)
Operating Scenario
1
Mid-Year Convention
Y
Operating Scenario
2005
$780.0
NA
471.9
$308.1
39.5%
198.9
$109.2
14.0%
15.6
$93.6
12.0%
35.6
$58.0
Sales
% growth
COGS
Gross Profit
% margin
SG&A
EBITDA
% margin
Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT
% margin
Taxes
EBIAT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
15.6
(15.0)
Historical Period
2006
$850.0
9.0%
512.1
$337.9
39.8%
214.6
$123.3
14.5%
17.0
$106.3
12.5%
40.4
$65.9
17.0
(18.0)
9.6%
12.7%
13.3%
13.3%
18.5
(18.5)
Projection Period
2008
$1,000.0
8.1%
600.0
$400.0
40.0%
250.0
$150.0
15.0%
20.0
$130.0
13.0%
49.4
$80.6
2009
$1,080.0
8.0%
648.0
$432.0
40.0%
270.0
$162.0
15.0%
21.6
$140.4
13.0%
53.4
$87.0
2010
$1,144.8
6.0%
686.9
$457.9
40.0%
286.2
$171.7
15.0%
22.9
$148.8
13.0%
56.6
$92.3
2011
$1,190.6
4.0%
714.4
$476.2
40.0%
297.6
$178.6
15.0%
23.8
$154.8
13.0%
58.8
$96.0
2012
$1,226.3
3.0%
735.8
$490.5
40.0%
306.6
$183.9
15.0%
24.5
$159.4
13.0%
60.6
$98.8
2013
$1,263.1
3.0%
757.9
$505.2
40.0%
315.8
$189.5
15.0%
25.3
$164.2
13.0%
62.4
$101.8
20.0
(20.0)
21.6
(21.6)
(8.0)
22.9
(22.9)
(6.5)
23.8
(23.8)
(4.6)
24.5
(24.5)
(3.6)
25.3
(25.3)
(3.7)
$79.0
$85.8
$91.4
$95.3
$98.1
0.5
0.95
$75.0
1.5
0.86
$73.4
2.5
0.77
$70.4
3.5
0.69
$66.1
4.5
0.63
$61.4
$189.5
7.0x
$1,326.3
0.59
$787.1
69.4%
Enterprise Value
$1,133.3
6.0x
1,060
1,040
1,021
1,002
984
Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple
6.5x
7.0x
1,119
1,177
1,098
1,155
1,077
$1,133
1,057
1,112
1,038
1,091
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Less: Preferred Securities
Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
Implied Equity Value
CAGR
('08 - '13)
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
8.0x
1,295
1,270
1,246
1,222
1,199
Implied EV/EBITDA
$17.17
0.0
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Enterprise Value
LTM 9/30/2008 EBITDA
50.0
$98.1
11.0%
$1,326.3
$858.3
7.5x
1,236
1,213
1,190
1,167
1,145
$1,133.3
(300.0)
25.0
WACC
$346.3
Terminal Value
WACC
CAGR
('05 - '07)
8.9%
11.0%
Enterprise Value
Cumulative Present Value of FCF
1,133.3
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
2007
$925.0
8.8%
555.0
$370.0
40.0%
231.3
$138.8
15.0%
18.5
$120.3
13.0%
45.7
$74.6
Base
$1,133.3
146.7
Implied EV/EBITDA
6.0x
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.2%
2.6%
7.7x
7.5x
2.6%
3.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.4%
8.0x
3.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.4%
4.8%
ValueCo Corporation
Sensitivity Analysis
17.2
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
0.0
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
6.0x
15.74
15.36
14.98
14.62
14.26
6.0x
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.2%
2.6%
7.5x
1,236
1,213
1,190
1,167
1,145
7.5x
19.16
18.70
18.26
17.82
17.40
8.0x
1,295
1,270
1,246
1,222
1,199
8.0x
20.30
19.82
19.35
18.89
18.44
WACC
6.0x
1,060
1,040
1,021
1,002
984
WACC
1,133.3
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple
6.5x
7.0x
1,119
1,177
1,098
1,155
1,077
$1,133
1,057
1,112
1,038
1,091
858.3
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
0.7
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
6.0x
785
765
746
727
709
7.5x
961
938
915
892
870
8.0x
1,020
995
971
947
924
8.0x
72.7%
72.4%
72.2%
72.0%
71.7%
8.0x
3.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.4%
4.8%
WACC
WACC
WACC
WACC
($ in millions)
7.7
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
6.0x
7.2x
7.1x
7.0x
6.8x
6.7x
6.5x
7.6x
7.5x
7.3x
7.2x
7.1x
Exit Multiple
7.0x
8.0x
7.9x
7.7x
7.6x
7.4x
7.5x
8.4x
8.3x
8.1x
8.0x
7.8x
8.0x
8.8x
8.7x
8.5x
8.3x
8.2x
ValueCo Corporation
Working Capital Projections
($ in millions)
2005
Historical Period
2006
Projection Period
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
$780.0
471.9
$850.0
512.1
$925.0
555.0
$1,000.0
600.0
$1,080.0
648.0
$1,144.8
686.9
$1,190.6
714.4
$1,226.3
735.8
$1,263.1
757.9
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Prepaid Expenses and Other
Total Current Assets
123.2
94.6
7.1
$224.9
141.1
104.0
8.5
$253.6
152.6
115.6
9.3
$277.5
165.0
125.0
10.0
$300.0
178.2
135.0
10.8
$324.0
188.9
143.1
11.4
$343.4
196.4
148.8
11.9
$357.2
202.3
153.3
12.3
$367.9
208.4
157.9
12.6
$378.9
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accrued Liabilities
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
65.2
69.9
15.6
$150.7
66.0
83.2
20.4
$169.6
69.4
92.5
23.1
$185.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
$200.0
81.0
108.0
27.0
$216.0
85.9
114.5
28.6
$229.0
89.3
119.1
29.8
$238.1
92.0
122.6
30.7
$245.3
94.7
126.3
31.6
$252.6
$74.2
9.5%
$84.0
9.9%
$92.5
10.0%
$100.0
10.0%
$108.0
10.0%
$114.5
10.0%
$119.1
10.0%
$122.6
10.0%
$126.3
10.0%
($9.8)
($8.5)
($7.5)
($8.0)
($6.5)
($4.6)
($3.6)
($3.7)
Assumptions
Days Sales Outstanding
Days Inventory Held
Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales)
57.7
73.2
0.9%
60.6
74.1
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
60.2
76.0
1.0%
50.4
9.0%
2.0%
47.0
9.8%
2.4%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
45.6
10.0%
2.5%
ValueCo Corporation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis
($ in millions)
WACC Calculation
Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization
Equity-to-Total Capitalization
30.0%
70.0%
Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate
After-tax Cost of Debt
6.0%
38.0%
3.7%
Size Premium(3)
Cost of Equity
Mean
Median
Predicted
Levered Beta(4)
1.11
1.08
1.35
1.25
1.19
Market
Value of Debt
$575.0
515.0
715.0
550.0
250.0
Market
Value of Equity
$2,600.0
1,750.0
1,050.0
1,000.0
630.0
1.20
1.19
Debt/
Equity
22.1%
29.4%
68.1%
55.0%
39.7%
Marginal
Tax Rate
38.0%
38.0%
38.0%
38.0%
38.0%
Unlevered
Beta
0.98
0.91
0.95
0.93
0.96
0.95
0.95
42.9%
39.7%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate(1)
Market Risk Premium(2)
Levered Beta
Company
Adler Industries
Lanzarone International
Lajoux Global
Momper Corp.
McMenamin & Co.
4.0%
7.1%
1.20
1.65%
14.1%
Mean
Unlevered
Beta
Relevered Beta
0.95
Target
Debt/
Equity
42.9%
Target
Marginal
Tax Rate
Relevered
Beta
38.0%
1.20
Debt-to-Total
Capitalization
0.1
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
5.0%
11.9%
11.3%
10.8%
10.3%
9.8%
5.5%
11.9%
11.4%
10.9%
10.4%
10.0%
6.0%
11.9%
11.5%
11.0%
10.6%
10.1%
6.5%
11.9%
11.5%
11.1%
10.7%
10.3%
7.0%
12.0%
11.6%
11.2%
10.8%
10.4%
Year 1
2009
Year 2
2010
Year 3
2011
Year 4
2012
Projection Period
Year 5
Year 6
2013
2014
Year 7
2015
Year 8
2016
Year 9
2017
Year 10
2018
1
2
3
4
5
8.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
5.0%
2.0%
6.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
4.0%
2.0%
4.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
6.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1
2
3
4
5
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
59.0%
61.0%
62.0%
SG&A (% sales)
Base
Management
Upside
Downside 1
Downside 2
1
2
3
4
5
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
26.0%
27.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
1
2
3
4
5
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1
2
3
4
5
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
Year 1
2009
Year 2
2010
Year 3
2011
Year 4
2012
Projection Period
Year 5
Year 6
2013
2014
Year 7
2015
Year 8
2016
Year 9
2017
Year 10
2018
Current Assets
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
Base
Management
Upside
Downside 1
Downside 2
1
2
3
4
5
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
60.2
60.2
60.2
65.0
59.0
57.7
1
2
3
4
5
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
80.0
82.0
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Current Liabilities
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)
Base
Management
Upside
Downside 1
Downside 2
1
2
3
4
5
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
45.6
45.6
45.6
47.0
42.5
40.0
1
2
3
4
5
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
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Copyright 2009 by Joshua Rosenbaum and Joshua Pearl. All rights reserved.
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