Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BermondseyCommunity Council
SouthwarkAnalytical Hub
Produced by: Southwark Analytical Hub Southwark Council and PCT Data Sharing Partnership Email: analyticalhub@southwark.gov.uk
Views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Southwark Council or Southwark PCT. Where quoted or used, they should be attributed clearly to the author.
CONTENTS
CONTENTS ............................................................................................................... 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................... 3
PREFACE.................................................................................................................. 4
WHO LIVES IN BERMONDSEY COMMUNITY COUNCIL? .................................... 6
Bermondsey Community Council.......................................................................... 6
Population ................................................................................................................ 7
Age ............................................................................................................................ 7
Ethnicity.................................................................................................................... 4
Age .......................................................................................................................... 10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report looks at the general population of Bermondsey Community Council as it was estimated to be in 2005, how the population has changed since 2001 and what the population is projected to look like in the future to 2029. This report uses 2005 as the reference period. The report brings together the different sources available to give a concise picture of Bermondsey Community Council while also highlighting the differences between the sources. Population estimates are critical for developing and monitoring economic and fiscal policy, planning and monitoring service provision and allocating resources, as well, as for a greater understanding of social change. For these reasons reliable population statistics are essential at local level. The main observations are: The population of Bermondsey Community Council in 2005 was estimated to be around 37,500 (ONS 2005 Mid Year LSOA estimates), 38,800 (GLA PLP High) or 38,500 (GLA PLP Low) people depending on how the population is calculated. The ONS figure is consistent with the published local authority mid year estimates, which is based on usual resident population in the 2001 Census and adjusted for births, deaths and migration. The GLA PLP Low projections are entirely driven by the increase in homes while the GLA PLP High follows trends in fertility rates and improved survival but also assumes that Londons proportion of UK international migration for 19992004 will continue. Nearly three-quarters of the population of Bermondsey Community Council were of working age in 2005 (ONS); while around 16% (ONS) or 11% (GLA PLP High, GLA PLP Low) of the population were children aged 015 years. In 2001 the top two most populous ethnic groups were White British and Black African with 60% and 14% of the Bermondsey Community Council population respectively. Since 2001 the population of Bermondsey Community Council has increased, most of the increase has been due to more babies being born in Bermondsey Community Council than people moving into the community council. The population of Bermondsey Community Council is projected to continue to grow to 2029 to between 53,300 (GLA PLP Low) and 55,300 (GLA PLP High) people. Most of the growth is expected to be due to natural increase (i.e. births) in Bermondsey Community Council. The population of Bermondsey Community Council is expected to age in the future although the proportion in the broad age groups (0-14 years, 15-64 years and 65 years and over) will remain similar. The GLA projections expect increases in the proportion of the 4569 year age groups over time and a decrease in the proportions of people in the 2029 year age groups.
PREFACE
The report looks at the general population of Bermondsey Community Council as it was estimated to be in 2005, how the population has changed since 2001 and what the population is projected to look like in the future to 2029. This report uses 2005 as its reference period to coincide with the most recent ONS estimates for small areas. The Community Council population is calculated from Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs). The report brings together the different sources available to give a concise picture of Bermondsey Community Council. Population estimates are critical for developing and monitoring economic and fiscal policy, planning and monitoring service provision and allocating resources, as well as for a greater understanding of social change. For these reasons reliable population statistics are essential at local level. Community Councils within Southwark are calculated in different ways depending on the data sources. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for community councils is calculated from Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level aggregated to Community Councils, while the Greater London Authority (GLA) is ward level data. For the Peckham and Rotherhithe community councils, which share the ward of Livesey, Community Council data cannot be calculated from the GLA projections therefore Livesey is included in both Community Councils for GLA projections. More accurate calculation can be obtained from using the ONS data. The data sources available provide different estimates of the Bermondsey Community Council population. The difference between the population estimates can represent more or less funding allocation for Bermondsey Community Council. This report presents the different estimates and projections to highlight the need for reliable population statistics. This report is part of a series of population snapshots, including a report of the borough of Southwark and for each of the other Community Councils. These reports can be found on the analytical hub shared drive (internal), the Source (internal) and the Southwark Alliance website www.southwarkalliance.org.uk. The information in this report was taken from two sources: Office for National Statistics http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=601 - 2001 Census - Mid2001 to Mid2005 Lower Layer Super Output Area broad age estimates (experimental) Greater London Authority http://www.london.gov.uk/gla/publications/factsandfigures/factsfigures/population.jsp - 2007 Round Ward Population Projections The most detailed data available has been used in this report although some census data has been used. The last Census was conducted on April 29 2001 and it is assumed that the population of Bermondsey Community Council has changed in the years since. Therefore, it is necessary to use projections and estimates to get a better picture of Bermondsey Community Council now and in the future. The 2001 Census underestimated Southwarks population therefore these figures may differ from the 2001 Mid year estimates. For more information see the ONS 2004 LA studies: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/LAStudy_Southwark.pdf. The ONS Mid year population estimates (mid-2001 onwards) are based on the 2001 Census and adjusted based on the births, deaths and migration. The estimates relate to the usually resident population. In simple terms, this means that population estimates are estimates of people where they usually live. Mid year population estimates are made for the population resident on June 30 of the reference year.
ONS experimental estimates for LSOA are based on 2001, aged forward to mid year, adjusted for births and deaths and constrained to the ONS local authority mid year estimates by using a ratio change method by applying change ratios to the LSOA estimates for the previous year using a combination of the following datasets: patient registers, child benefit and old person datasets. For more information see the methodology note on the ONS website http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14357. The GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections used in this report recognise the actual births and deaths up to mid-2005 as in the ONS mid year estimates. The GLA has prepared two versions. The first version is Post London Plan (PLP1) Low and is entirely driven by the increase in homes as seen annually since mid-2001 from data collected at borough level by the London Development Database (LDD) up to 2007 and the London Housing Capacity Study (LHCS) from 2007 to 2027. After 2027 it is assumed that the LHCS average values for 2022 to 2027 continue until 2031. The second version, PLP High, was prepared to establish the impact of the ONS 2006-based population projection for England. Apart from following the trends in fertility rates and improved survival, the PLP High assumes that each London borough's proportion of England's net international migration for the years mid-2001 to mid-2006 will continue based on the ONS assumption for international migration. This gives a London population that is used as a higher constraint for the borough populations. The distribution of London's population amongst the boroughs is then determined by the distribution of the PLP Low projection. The GLA recommends using PLP Low for planning and analysis but the PLP High should also be considered if London continues to attract high levels of international migrants. The GLA Round Ward Population Projections are constrained to the borough projections by gender and age as well as births and deaths. Fertility and survival differentials for wards are determined using the three most recent years of information. Births are based on 2003 to 2006 and applied to 2006 to 2031. The 2001 Census is used to provide communal establishment population as well as profiles of immigrants and emigrants. The principal ward projection is to PLP Low because it used new homes data consistent with that used for boroughs. For more information see DMAG Briefing 2008-07: GLA 2007 Round Demographic Projections: http://www.london.gov.uk/gla/publications/factsandfigures/dmag-briefing-2008-07.pdf Figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred except in tables presenting 2001 Census data. Discrepancies may occur due to rounding.
Prior to 2007 the GLA produced the Review of the London Plan (RLP). The 2007 PLP has been produced on the same basis.
Bermondsey Community Council is one of the eight Community Councils in Southwark. It consists of Grange, Riverside and South Bermondsey wards. The boundaries of the Community Council are co-terminous with the boundaries of the wards.
BOROUGH& BANKSIDE
ROTHERHITHE BERMONDSEY
WALWORTH
Grange
Riverside
PECKHAM CAMBERWELL
BERMONDSEY
South Bermondsey
DULWICH
Southwark Wards
Produced by Strategic Planning, Public Health Southw ark Council, Southw ark PCT (N.Jani)
Population
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated the 2005 mid year population of Bermondsey Community Council was 37,500 people (19,500 males, 18,100 females).2 This was 1,000 less than the Greater London Authority (GLA) PLP Low 2005 projected estimate of 38,500 people (19,500 males, 19,000 females), and 1,300 less than the GLA PLP High of 38,800 (19,600 males, 19,200 females).3 The reasons for the difference in the population are the methodologies used by the ONS and the GLA to estimate population. It is important to remember that all projections are estimates and are based on certain assumptions being realised as outlined in the Preface. As Table 1 shows, Bermondsey Community Council is comprised of three wards, each accounting for roughly one-third of the population. Grange has the largest proportion of the community council's population (36%) and South Bermondsey has the smallest proportion (around 31%).
Table 1: Bermondsey Community Council - Wards no. Grange 13,523 Riverside 12,283 South Bermondsey 11,735 Bermondsey CC 37,541
Source: ONS Mid-2005 Lower Layer Super Output Area Broad Age Estimates
Age
As Graphs 1 and 2 demonstrate, Bermondsey Community Council has a large proportion of adults in their prime working age, with almost one third of their population aged between 3044 years (31% ONS, 30% GLA PLP High and GLA PLP Low).
Graph 1: Berm ondsey Com m unity Council Population by Age Group - Males Graph 2: Berm ondsey Com munity Council Population by Age Group - Fem ales
35 30 25 20
35 30 25 20
15 10 5 0 0-15
ONS M ales
%
15 10 5 0 16-29 30-44 45-64 Age group (years)
GLA High M ales
65+
0-15
ONS Females
60+
GLA Lo w M ales
GLA Lo w Females
Source: ONS Mid-2005 Lower Layer Super Output Area Broad Age Estimates; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP High
For information about the ONS methodology see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/methodology_by_theme/sape/downloads/Methodology_note_SOAs.pdf. 3 For information about the GLA methodology for projecting the population see the Data Management and Analysis GLA 2007 Round Demographic Projections (available at the GLA website http://www.london.gov.uk/gla/publications/factsandfigures/dmag-briefing-2008-07.pdf)
According to ONS estimates, nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bermondsey Community Councils population was of working age, while 16% were children (015 years of age) and 11% were of a pensionable age. The ONS estimates predict a higher percentage of all adults in the 3044 year age group than both GLA projections however the GLA PLP Low and GLA PLP High 2005 projections show a similar picture in all broad age groups.4 The GLA PLP Low and GLA PLP High projections in Graph 3 show the distribution of Bermondsey Community Councils population by age group with both series having a similar distribution.
5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 Age Group (years) GLA 2007 Low Females GLA 2007 Low Males GLA 2007 Males-High GLA 2007 Females-High
85+
Source: GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP High
Using ONS data, children were defined as people aged 015 years, working age was 1659 years for females and 1664 years for males. Pensionable age was 60 years and above for females and 65 years and above for males.
Ethnicity
no. 20,784 1,169 3,059 363 236 192 312 485 128 248 189 1,233 4,791 354 593 479 34,615
% 60.0 3.4 8.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 3.6 13.8 1.0 1.7 1.4 100
The 2001 Census underestimated Southwarks population therefore the total figure may differ from the 2001 Mid year estimates. For more information see ONS 2004 Local Authority studies http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/LAStudy_Southwark.pdf.
The population of Bermondsey Community Council was estimated to have increased between 2001 and 2005. Table 3 shows the population of each of Bermondsey Community Council's wards over the 4-year period. According to GLA and ONS data, Riverside ward increased the most in population between 2001 and 2005 whilst South Bermondsey ward either decreased by 300 people (ONS) or increased between 100 and 200 people (GLA PLP Low and GLA PLP High), depending on which data you look at.
GLA PLP Low diff. 2001 2005 12,700 13,500 800 11,600 12,700 1,100 12,200 12,300 100 36,500 38,500 2,000
GLA PLP High diff. 2001 2005 12,700 13,600 900 11,600 12,800 1,200 12,200 12,400 200 36,500 38,800 2,300
Source: ONS Mid-2001 and ONS Mid-2005 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP High (a) Figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Discrepancies may occur due to rounding.
As Table 4 shows, natural increase (i.e. more births than deaths) has contributed more to the increase of the Bermondsey Community Council population than net migration since 2001.
Table 4: Bermondsey Community Council, Population Estimates, Components of Change 20012005 (a)
Population
Net migration & other changes no.
200 500 -200 300 -100
Source: GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low (a) Figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Discrepancies may occur due to rounding.
Age
Source: ONS Mid- 2001 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas; ONS Mid-2003 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas; ONS Mid-2005 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas
6 Using ONS data, children were defined as people aged 015 years, working age was 1659 years for females and 1664 years for males. Pensionable age was 60 years and above for females and 65 years and above for males.
The GLA PLP High estimates for 2001, 2003 and 2005 showed similar distributions to the GLA PLP Low across the age groups but for a slightly larger overall base population.
Graph 6: Bermondsey Community Council, GLA PLP High Population by Age Group, 2001, 2003, 2005
16 14 12 10
%
Source: GLA 2007 Round Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Population Projections PLP High
The GLA PLP Low projections predict that Bermondsey Community Councils population will grow at the same rate as projected in the GLA PLP High projections, from a lower base population. The GLA PLP High projections predict an increase of 43% (16,500) which is an annual average increase of 700 people. The GLA PLP Low methodology is driven by the increase in homes seen since mid-2001, whereas, the GLA PLP High projections makes the assumption that the pattern of international migration will remain the same as it was between 2001 and 2006.
Table 5: Bermondsey Community Council Projected Population, 2005, 2015, 2029 (a)
2005 no. GLA PLP Low GLA PLP High 38,500 38,800
Source: GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP High (a) Numbers have been rounded to nearest hundred. Discrepancies may occur due to rounding.
Table 6 details how the wards within Bermondsey Community Council will change between 2005 and 2029. The GLA PLP High projections predict that Riverside ward will increase the most in population, growing by around a third of its size over the two decades. The ward with the smallest growth is projected to be South Bermondsey, which will increase by around 4,500 people (GLA PLP High), roughly 27% of its population.
Table 6 : Bermondsey Community Council Population Estimates 2005, 2015, 2029 Wards (a) GLA PLP Low GLA PLP High 2005 Grange Riverside South Bermondsey Bermondsey 13,500 12,700 12,300 38,500 2015 17,000 16,400 13,900 47,300 2029 17,000 16,400 13,900 47,300 diff 3,500 3,700 1,600 8,800 2005 13,600 12,800 12,400 38,800 2015 17300 16800 14200 48,300 2029 19,200 19,200 16,900 55,300 diff 5,600 6,400 4,500 16,500
Source: GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP Low; GLA 2007 Round Ward Population Projections PLP High (a) Figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Discrepancies may occur due to rounding.
1,000
Population change
500
-500
-1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Year
Births Deaths Net Migration Total Change
Age
%
8 6 4 2 0 0-4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85+
As Graph 10 demonstrates, the GLA PLP High has similar projections as the PLP Low, but for a larger base population.
Graph 10: Bermondsey Community Council, GLA Population Projection by Age, 2005, 2015, 2029
16
14
12 10
%
10