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MARKETING MANAGEMENT

Topics: Lesson 1 to 10
Bench Mark of Marketing
Customer Experience Management
Marketing Orientation -1/2
Influence of Marketing Environment
Marketing Decision
Marketing Plan
Strategic Planning

BENCH MARK OF MARKETING

•It is a craft of linking the producers of goods and services with the existing and potential customers.
•Changes occurs In the consumer behavior, market place, channels of distribution, the merchandizing,
display and almost anything have been tremendous in the past few decades
•Marketers are today faced with tough decisions. one wrong decision can completely put business back
and give competitors edge over the market.
•Today Marketing for the Millennium
•A market consists of all the potential customers sharing a particular need or want who might be willing
and able to engage in exchange to satisfy that need or want” (Philip Kotler)
•Marketing task is not only to deliver the product but it entails much more than just promotion and
delivery. Marketing now is: Right product for the Right people at the Right time at the Right
place at a Right price with Right services”.

KEY TERMS

CONSUMER
•Individual who derives direct utility of the product
•And within the budget,
•sensitivity and interests with a view of maximizing his utility.
•study consumer behavior to harnes and educate consumer to make our product successful.

CUSTOMER
•Individual who actually makes a decision in selecting a certain product.
•May not directly consume the product
•But takes buying decision Ex Housewife buys cooking oil customer, entire family consumer.

CONSUMER MARKETS
•Selling of mass consumer goods and services; Ex soft drink, tooth pastes TV sets etc.
•Establishing brand image;
•understanding the target consumers; which meets their needs.
•communication brand positioning more forcefully and creatively.
BUSINESS MARKETS
•Selling good and services to consumers who are skilled in evaluating competitive offerings.
•Requirement: Sales force, prices, companies or brand reliability and quality.

GLOBAL MARKETS
•Beyond frontiers, tougher decisions;
•Export of product;
•Which country to enter? How to enter? How to Price? How to Communicate?
•Legal System, style, negotiation, currency situation, political situation.

NON PROFIT AND GOVERNMENTAL MARKETS


•Selling to non profit organization such as schools, charitable organization, missions, universities etc
•Another way to sell goods and services;
•Participation in tender bids, in time offerings, meeting time schedule etc are logistics in handling such
markets.

MARKETING VIEWPOINT
•Marketing continues to be a social process by which individuals or groups obtain what they need or want
through creating, offering and freely exchanging goods and services of value.
•Due to changes in offering and delivering newer methods and ways through progressive technology
have complicated the situation and have posed challenges of enormous difficulty for marketers
today.

TWO TYPE OF ENVIORNMENTS

The Task Environment (1)


•Immediate actors, such as suppliers, distributors, dealers and consumers etc
•involved in production, distribution and promotion.

The Broad Environment (2)


•consist of demographic, natural, economic, technological , political-legal and socio-cultural environment

Marketers have to decide what is called Marketing Mix

Right Product
a. Variety and range b. Quality c. Designs d. Features e. Brands f. Packaging g. Sizes h. Models i.
Services j. Warranties k. Returns

Right Price
a. List Price b. Discounts and conditions of discounts c. Allowances d. Payment Period

Right Place
a. Channel b. Coverage / Reach c. Location d. Inventory e. Transport f. Assortments

Right Promotion
a. Advertising b. Announcements c. Public Relation d. Direct Marketing
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT

•Customer needs and expectations, and how marketing attempts to satisfy them

NEEDS:
•Human requirement, is there and is natural;
•Ex Food to satisfy hunger, water to quench out thirst;
•Human also need recreation, education, entertainment and lots of other things to sustain living.

WANTS
•Needs becomes wants when they are directed towards a specific object.
•Varies from place to place, person to person;
•USA a man can eat burger whereas in Pakistan NAN
•Want can be different at different levels of income.

DEMAND
•Wants become demand when backed up by individual's ability to pay for it.

JOB OF MARKETING
•Is not to create need. Its function is to offer a specific product at a certain price and at a certain place;
•and the time when need is; Is to retain present customer by providing them satisfaction and acquire new
one with a promise to satisfy there needs.
•Job of a marketing is to create long term association with the customer by providing satisfaction and
retaining customer life time goodwill.

CUSTOMER LIFE TIME VALUE (CLV)


•This relationship is BUILT WITH CUSTOMER over a long period
•As need is reoccurring and to look at the value of the customer to the company over the whole time.
•Need arises customer relates to the product to satisfy need.

CEM (Customer Experience Management)


•Is related to managing strategically customers entire experience with the product and the company.
•To drive competitive edge, can be achieved by branding, product differentiation, segmentation and
relationship marketing.
•Relationship marketing focuses on establishing and building long term relationship between company
and the customer. or can be called as Loyalty Marketing.
•CEM perceive customers as the most valuable assets, Customer should be evaluated for other things
such as price, promptness, service, hygienic cordiality etc.

CEM TECHNIQUES AND STEPS

STEP 1 Analyze the experimental world of customers


•Customer needs wants and lifestyles

STEP 2 Build the experimental platform


•Connecting strategies and implementations
•Connecting customers expectations.

STEP 3 Design Brand


STEP 4 Structure Customer Interface
•Intangibles; such as ordering, delivery, attitude behavior

STEP 5 Continue Experimental Innovations


•Anything can improve customer's own viewpoint on product and services.

GENERAL RULE FOR CEM


Provide product information to the customers

• Help to identify potential problem before it occurs


• Provide user friendly customer complaint registration
• Have prompt complaint handling system
• Provide fast back up service
• Provide quick correcting service
• Provide close mechanism on customer point of interaction
• Keep environment clean neat and fair

MARKET ORIENTATION

•A marketing oriented firm (also called the marketing concept, or consumer focus) is one that allows
the wants and needs of customers and potential customers to drive all the firm's strategic
decisions.
•To determine customers wants, the company usually needs to conduct marketing research

APPLICATION OF THE CONCEPT


•Customer wants are researched
•the information is disseminated throughout the firm and products are developed,
•customer satisfaction is monitored and adjustments made if necessary.

TECHNIQUES THAT THE FIRM USES TO UNDERSTAND


• Quantitative marketing research - such as; surveys and questionnaires
• Qualitative marketing research - such as; focus groups and advisory panels
• Market research and industry research - such as; Porter 5 forces analysis
• Face-to-face meetings with customers
• Face-to-face meetings with frontline staff - sales reps, clerks, and receptionists
• Customer complaints department
• Customer hotlines - Web and telephone
• Visits to customers' facilities
• Frequent user programs and databases
• User groups - Beta testing
• Conferences

MARKETING ORIENTATION FIRM CHARACTERISTICS


•Broad product lines
•Emphasis on a product's benefits to customers rather than on product attributes
•Use of product innovation techniques, such as; brainstorming, concept testing, and force-field analysis.
•The offering of ancillary services like credit availability, delivery, installation, and warranty
•Customer satisfaction and complaint monitoring procedures, including; exit interviews, customer
complaints database, and Web and telephone information hotlines.
•Organizational structure in which the marketing manager reports directly to the CEO.

In marketing and strategic management, sustainable competitive advantage is an advantage that one
firm
has relative to competing firms.

1. difficult to mimic
2. unique
3. sustainable
4. superior to the competition
5. applicable to multiple situations

Examples of company characteristics that could constitute a sustainable competitive advantage include:
• customer focus, customer lifetime value
• superior product quality
• extensive distribution contracts
• accumulated brand equity and positive company reputation
• low cost production techniques
• patents and copyrights
• government protected monopoly
• superior employees and management team

A company's core competency is the one thing that it can do better than its competitors.
(Core competencies are harmonized, intentional constructions)

Core competence has three characteristics:


1. It provides potential access to a wide variety of markets,
2. It increases perceived customer benefits and
3. It is hard for competitors to imitate.

MARKET ORIENTATION 2

There are five competing concepts of philosophies to conduct marketing activities.

a) The Production Concept


This philosophy approach is that consumers will prefer products that are widely
available and are
inexpensive.

b) The Product Concept


This concept is that consumers will favor that product, which offers most quality
performance and
innovative features.

c) The selling Concept


This concept emphasizes on aggressive selling and high promotional back up.

d) The Marketing Concept


This concept holds that the key to organizational goals consists of company being more effective than
competitors in creating, delivering and communicating consumer value to the chosen target.
‘Find wants and fill them’.
‘You are the boss (Customer)’.
‘Have it in your way’.
Where as selling focuses on the needs of the sellers; marketing on the needs of the buyers.
Selling concept is:
Factory >Product >Selling and Promotion >Profit from volume
Marketing concept is
Target Market > Consumer Needs > Integrated Marketing > Consumers’ Satisfaction

CONSUMER NEED
Needs are
a. Stated need (an inexpensive Car)
b. Real need (wants a car which is lower in maintenance)
c. Unstated need (he wants a strong car)
d. Delighted need (he wants a road map of his country)
e. Secret need (he wants image in that car)

INTEGRATED MARKETING
This is done at two-levels. One, various Marketing Functions such as sales force, advertising, customer
services etc are integrated in ONE quantity; Secondly, marketing must integrate production, quality
control and design sections.

e) The Societical Concept


This concept further elaborates the marketing approach to include consumer and society well being
overall

INFLUENCE OF MARKETING ENVIORNMENT


ON MARKETING DECISIONS
Environment is a broad spectrum or sets of conditioned which prevail at a given time. For
environmentalists, it is air, oxygen, dust, smoke etc .in atmosphere. But in marketing, we mean two
things.

We have studied it previously.

1) The task environment


2) The broad environment

THE BROAD ENVIORNMENT


There are two types of factor

1) Controllable Factors
which are directed by top management and marketers Although, top management takes all decisions but
five are directly affecting markets.
•Line of business: This consists of goods and services category, functions
geographic coverage, type of ownership and specific business of the
company.
•Overall objectives: Numerical goals, etc
•Role of Marketing: Importance and integration of services
•Corporate culture: the conditions that exist inside the organization

2) Uncontrollable Factors.
These are pertaining to External conditions. Such as
•Consumers: their characteristics, incomes, status, race, education etc.
•Competition: What are they doing and planning, their research, policies and
strategies etc.
•Government: The legislation; laws, rules, controls, policies, framework,
international laws etc.
•Economy: The rate of growth, sectoral factors, the trends and many other things.
•Technology: The research, methods, machines, equipment etc.
•Media: The independence of media, the public opinion, the information mode etc.

Handling Broad Environment


MONITORING:
•must be closely monitored and scanned to adjust our marketing decisions.
•An immediate response to change must be ensure to take corrective measures or to avail of the
opportunity

FLEXIBILITY:
•Marketing decisions must have inherent flexibility to alter/change with broad environment.
•Change has to be managed and implemented.
•Organization must have flexibility to alter its actions keeping in view the changes that have occurred in
broad environment.

INFORMATION AND RESEARCH:


•Close and systematic mechanism must be developed for access to information and research.
•Changes either take place and broadcast, such as legal system etc. but certain changes are anticipated.
•Trends must be watched and mechanism is built to have information well in advance.

ADOPTION:
•Adoption of marketing decisions must be fully and carefully monitored.
•Whatever we change and alter must be done after taking into account the environment. But once a
change is made, it must be fully adopted and
working conditions adjusted to get maximum benefits etc.

‘Marketing-Environment Fit’ (MEF)


There is nothing much we can do about the broad environment, we can however take Marketing
Decisions to fit to the environment and alter and change.
It is like adjusting the course according to the readings on radar
And in-time marketing decision leads to

1. Reducing losses or erosion of business or profit


2. Availing opportunity arising out of it.

‘An early bird catches moth’ dictum explains it all.

MARKETING DECISIONS

We will discuss marketing decisions in mainly four categories


• Product
• Price
• Place (distribution)
• Promotion

The Marketing Mix


•These four P's are the parameters that the marketing manager can control,
•subject to the internal and external constraints of the marketing environment.
•The goal is to make decisions that center the four P's on the customers in the
target market in order to create perceived value and generate a positive
response.

Product Decisions
The term "product" refers to tangible, physical products as well as services. Here
are some examples of the product decisions to be made:
•Brand name
•Functionality
•Styling
•Quality
•Safety
•Packaging
•Repairs and Support
•Warranty
•Accessories and services

Price Decisions
Some examples of pricing decisions to be made include:
•Pricing strategy (skim, penetration, etc.)
•Suggested retail price
•Volume discounts and wholesale pricing
•Cash and early payment discounts
•Seasonal pricing
•Bundling
•Price flexibility
•Price discrimination

Distribution (Place) Decisions


Distribution is about getting the products to the customer. Some examples of
distribution decisions include:

•Distribution channels
•Market coverage (inclusive, selective, or exclusive distribution)
•Specific channel members
•Inventory management
•Warehousing
•Distribution centers
•Order processing
•Transportation
•Reverse logistics

Promotion Decisions
promotion represents the various aspects of marketing communication, that is, the
communication of information about the product with the goal of generating a
positive customer response. Marketing communication decisions include:
•Promotional strategy (push, pull, etc.)
•Advertising
•Personal selling & sales force
•Sales promotions
•Public relations & publicity
•Marketing communications budget

Limitations of Marketing Mix Framework


•It was useful in the early days of the marketing concept when physical products represented a larger
portion of the economy.
•Today, with marketing more integrated into organizations and with a wider variety of products and
markets, some authors have attempted to extend its
usefulness by proposing a fifth P, such as packaging, people, process, etc.
•Today however, the marketing mix most commonly remains based on the 4 P's.
•Marketing starts with the product since it is what an organization has to offer its target market. As we’ve
stressed many times in this tutorial, organizations attempt to provide solutions to a target market’s
problems. These solutions include tangible or intangible (or both) product offerings marketed by
an organization.
•Distribution decisions are relevant for nearly all types of products. While it is easy to see how distribution
decisions impact physical goods, such as laundry detergent or truck parts, distribution is equally
important for digital goods (e.g., television programming, downloadable music) and services (e.g.,
income tax
services).
•In fact, while the Internet is playing a major role in changing product distribution and is perceived to offer
more opportunities for reaching customers, online marketers still face the same distribution issues
and obstacles as those faced by offline marketers.

MARKETING PLAN

A marketing plan may be part of an overall Business Plan. In general terms, it must:
•Describe and Explain the Current Situation
•Specify the Expected Results (objectives)
•Identify the Resources that will be needed (including financing, time, and skills)
•Describe the Actions that will need to be taken to achieve the objective(s)
•Devise a Method of Monitoring Results and Adjusting the Plan where necessary

Many companies prefer an abridged format that would yield a 10 to 20-page plan.

MARKETING PLAN DETAILS


1. Title page
•Title page is usually the details about the Plan, if there are more than one
company in the group, and the time period etc.
• Information that enables us to identify the Plan.
2. Executive Summary
•The Plan should open with a brief summary of the plans most important Goals and
Recommendations.
•The summary can be expressed like in a brief statement, say “will enter UK market
this year” etc.
3. a) Current Situation – Macro-environment
•All situations regarding Economy, Government, Legal, Technology, Ecological,
Socio-cultural,
•Supply chain and some other macro factors must be carefully studied. Relevant
data from authentic sources collected and analyzed.

b) Current Situation - Market Analysis


•Indeed, market situation must be taken into account in all details and carefully
studied.
•Market definition, Market size, Market Segmentation, Industry Structure and
strategic groupings, Competition and market
share, Competitors' Strengths and Weaknesses and Market Trends must be
carefully studied and analyzed.
•This will give us the exact position of our product vis-à-vis market, to enable us to
plan future our future course of action.

c) Current Situation - Consumer Analysis


•As we have seen before, consumer and customer knowledge is very essential.
•We must be aware of nature of the buying decision, participants, demographics,
psychographics, buyer motivation and expectations, loyalty segments etc to
be fully aware of consumer reactions and expectations.

d) Current Situation – Internal Environment


•The next step is obviously to ascertain the company’s own resources in terms of
financial, people, time and skills and to set objectives.
•Mission statement and vision statement, corporate objectives, financial objective,
marketing objectives, long term objectives, etc must be clearly established.
•Corporate culture must be established.

4. Summary of Situation Analysis


•External threats, external opportunities, internal strengths, internal weaknesses,
key success factors in the industry, our sustainable competitive advantage,
marketing research etc must be carefully understood and analyzed.
•Information requirements, research methodology and research results must be
carefully ascertained at this stage and carried out.

5. a) Marketing Strategy - Product


•Product mix, product strengths and weaknesses, perceptual mapping, product life
cycle management and new product development, brand name, brand
image, and brand equity, the augmented product, and product portfolio
analysis are now easy to establish

b) Marketing Strategy – Pricing


•Pricing objectives, pricing method (eg.: cost plus, demand based, or competitor
indexing), pricing strategy (eg.: skimming, or penetration), discounts and
allowances, price elasticity and customer sensitivity, price zoning, break even
analysis at various prices
c) Marketing Strategy Promotion
•Promotional goals, promotional mix, advertising reach, frequency, flights, theme,
and media, sales force requirements, techniques, and management, sales
promotion, publicity and public relations, electronic promotion (eg.: Web, or
telephone)

d) Marketing Strategy - Distribution


•Geographical coverage, distribution channels, physical distribution and logistics,
electronic distribution etc must be earmarked

6. Implementation
•Personnel requirements, assigning responsibilities, give incentives, training on
selling methods, financial requirements, management information systems
requirements, month-by-month agenda, pert or critical path analysis,
monitoring results and benchmarks, adjustment mechanism, contingencies
(What if's) need to be worked out

7. Financial Summary
Assumptions, pro-forma monthly income statement, contribution margin analysis,
breakeven analysis. This information must be very formally done at this stage

8. Appendix
Pictures and specifications of the new product, results from research already
completed.

STRATEGIC MARKETING PLANNING

•Marketing strategies are those plans designed to reach marketing goals.


• A good marketing strategy should integrate an organization’s marketing goals, policies, and action
sequences (tactics) into a cohesive whole.
• The objective of a marketing strategy is to put the organization into a position to carry out its mission
effectively and efficiently.

Types of Marketing Strategies

Strategies based on market Dominance


Typically there are four types of market dominance strategies:
•leader
•challenger
•follower
•nicher

Innovation Strategies-
This deals with the firm rate of new product development and business model innovation. It asks whether
the company is on the cutting edge of technology and business innovation. There are three types:
•pioneers
•close followers
•late followers
Horizontal Integration
•vertical integration
•diversification (or conglomeration)
•intensification

Aggressiveness Strategies
This asks whether a firm should grow or not, and if so, how fast. One scheme divides strategies into:
•building
•holding
•harvesting

MARKET DOMINANCE STRATEGIES


Typically there are four types of market dominance strategies that a marketer will consider: There are

• Market leader,
• Market challenger,
• Market follower,
• Market nicher.

1 Market Leader
•It typically is the industry leader in developing innovative new business models and new products
(although not always).
•Of the four dominance strategies, it has the most flexibility in crafting strategy.

The main options available to market leaders are:


•Expand the total market by finding
o new users of the product o new uses of the product o more usage on each use occasion
•Protect your existing market share by:
o developing new product ideas o improve customer service o improve distribution effectiveness
o reduce costs
•Expand your market share:
o by targeting one or more competitor o without being noticed by government regulators

2 Market Challenger
•A market challenger is a firm in a strong, but not dominant position that is following an aggressive
strategy of trying to gain market share.
•It typically targets the industry leader (for example, Pepsi targets Coke), but it could also target smaller,
more vulnerable competitors.

The fundamental principles involved are:


•Assess the strength of the target competitor. Consider the amount of support that the target mightmuster
from allies.
•Choose only one target at a time.
•Find a weakness in the target?? Position. Attack at this point. Consider how long it will take for the target
to realign their resources so as to reinforce this weak spot.
•Launch the attack on as narrow a front as possible. Whereas a defender must defend all their borders,
an attacker has the advantage of being able to concentrate their forces at one place.
• Launch the attack quickly, and then consolidate.
Some of the options open to a market challenger are:
• price discounts or price cutting
• line extensions
• introduce new products
• reduce product quality
• increase product quality
• improve service
• change distribution
• cost reductions
• intensify promotional activity

3 Market Follower
A market follower is a firm in a strong, but not dominant position that is content to stay at that position.
The advantages of this strategy are:
•No expensive R&D failures
• No risk of bad business model
• Best practices? are already established
• Able to capitalize on the promotional activities of the market leader
• Minimal risk of competitive attacks
• Don’t waste money in a head-on battle with the market leader

4 Market Nicher
•In this niche strategy the firm concentrates on a select few target markets. It is also called a focus
strategy.
•It is hoped that by focusing ones marketing efforts on one or two narrow market segments and tailoring
your
marketing mix to these specialized markets,

The most successful nichers tend to have the following characteristics:


•They tend to be in high value added industries and are able to obtain high margins.
•They tend to be highly focused on a specific market segment.
•They tend to market high end products or services, and are able to use a premium pricing strategy.
•They tend to keep their operating expenses down by spending less on R&D, advertising, and personal
selling.

AGGRESSIVENESS STRATEGIES
are rated according to their marketing assertiveness, their risk propensity, financial leverage, and product
innovation, speed of decision-making and other measures of business aggressiveness.

Typically the range of aggressiveness strategies is classified into four categories:


•Prospector
•Defender
•Analyzer
•Reactor

1 Prospector strategy
•This is the most aggressive of the four strategies. It typically involves active programs to expand into
new markets and stimulate new opportunities.
•New product development is vigorously pursued and attacks on competitors are a common way of
obtaining additional market share.
•They respond quickly to any signs of market opportunity, and do so with little research or analysis.
•A large proportion of their revenue comes from new products or new markets.
•The risk of product failure or market rejection is high. .
•Advertising, sales promotion, and personal selling costs are a high percentage of sales.

2 Defender Strategy
•This strategy entails a decision not to aggressively pursue markets. A defender strategy entails finding,
and maintaining a secure and relatively stable market.
•In their attempt to secure this stable market they either keep prices low, keep advertising and other
promotional costs low, engage in vertical integration,
•offer a limited range of products or offer better quality or service.

3 Analyzer
•The analyzer is in between the defender and prospector.
•They take less risk and make fewer mistakes than a prospector, but are less committed to stability than
defenders.
•Most firms are analyzers. They are seldom a first mover in an industry but are often second or third place
entrants.
•They tend to expand into areas close to their existing core competency.
•Rather than expand into wholly new markets, they gradually expand existing markets.
•They try to maintain a balanced portfolio of products

4 Reactor
•A reactor has no proactive strategy. They react to events as they occur. They respond only when they
are forced to by macro environmental pressures.
•This is the least effective of the four strategies. It is without direction or focus.

OTHER STRATEGIES

COST LEADERSHIP STRATEGY


•By producing high volumes of standardized products, the firm hopes to take
advantage of economies of scale and experience curve effects.
•Maintaining this strategy requires a continuous search for cost reductions in all
aspects of the business.
•To be successful, this strategy usually requires a considerable market share
advantage or preferential access to raw materials, components, labour, or
some other important input.

Successful implementation also benefits from:


•process engineering skills
•products designed for ease of manufacture
•sustained access to inexpensive capital
•close supervision of labour
•tight cost control
•incentives based on quantitative targets

DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGY
•Differentiation involves creating a product that is perceived as unique.
•The unique features or benefits should provide superior value for the customer if this strategy is to be
successful.
•Because customers see the product as unrivaled and unequaled, the price elasticity of demand tends to
be reduced and customers tend to be more brand loyal.

To maintain this strategy the firm should have:


•strong research and development skills
•strong product engineering skills
•strong creativity skills
•good cooperation with distribution channels
•strong marketing skills
•incentives based largely on subjective measures
•be able to communicate the importance of the differentiating product characteristics
•stress continuous improvement and innovation
•attract highly skilled, creative people

MARKET SEGMENTATION STRATEGIES


•In this strategy the firm concentrates on a select few target markets. It is also
called a focus strategy or niche strategy.
•It is hoped that by focusing your marketing efforts on one or two narrow market
segments and tailoring your marketing mix to these specialized markets,

SCENARIO PLANNING
•is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-
term plans.
•These combinations of fact and possible social changes are called "scenarios."
•The chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and
learn from mistakes without risking important failures in real life.
•Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a pleasant, unthreatening,
game-like environment,

How scenario planning is done

1. Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis.


it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other
methods.

2. Set the time and scope of the analysis.


Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to
predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles.
A usual timeframe can be 5 to 10 years.

3. Identify major stakeholders.


Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify
their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time

4. Map basic trends and driving forces.


This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal and societal trends.
Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question.

5. Find key uncertainties.


Map the driving forces on two axes, assessing each force on an
uncertain/(relatively) predictable and important/unimportant scale.
(for exp. full employment and zero inflation).

6. Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce
the forces to the two most important.

7. Define the scenarios:


plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, 2 to 4 scenarios are constructed.
The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram (inflation
may already be low), and possible scenarios may keep
one (or more) of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more
driving forces. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.

8. Write out the scenarios.


Narrate what has happened and what the reasons can be for the proposed
situation. Try to include good reasons why the changes have occurred

9. Assess the scenarios.


Are they relevant for the goal? Are the internally consistent? Are they archetypical?
Do they represent relatively stable outcome situations?

10. Identify research needs.


Based on the scenarios, assess where more information is needed. Where needed,
obtain more information on the motivations of stakeholders,
possible innovations that may occur in the industry and so on.

11. Develop quantitative methods.


If possible, develop models to help quantify consequences of the various scenarios,
such as growth rate, cash flow etc.

12. Converge towards decision scenarios.


Retrace the steps above in an iterative process until you reach scenarios which
address the fundamental issues facing the organization.
Try to assess upsides and downsides of the possible scenarios.