POLLING MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Telephone Survey of Likely GOP Runoff Voters in Texas US Senate Race
Wenzel Strategies is a public opinion research firm, established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio that works with political, business, non-profit, media, and government clients nationwide. It conducted a telephone survey of likely Republican Runoff Election voters statewide in Texas. The poll was fielded on July 10-11, 2012, and included 600 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.98 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies telephone survey of likely Republican Runoff Election voters statewide in Texas shows that Ted Cruz leads David Dewhurst in the race for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate by a 48% to 38% margin, with 14% yet undecided. The survey of 600 likely voters shows that both men are held in favorable regard by the majority of GOP voters, but that Cruz enjoys a slight edge in that 69% have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 64% who said they hold a favorable view of Dewhurst. In races like this, the favorable/unfavorable rating is a key leading indicator of how the ballot test will go. This race is fluid, but appears to come down to a battle of ideology, as Cruz leads by a wide margin among TEA Party conservatives in Texas and Dewhurst enjoys a substantial edge among traditional conservative voters. Among TEA Party voters, Cruz leads by a 59% to 28% margin, and Dewhurst leads among traditional conservatives by a 57% to 28% margin. The advantage that Cruz enjoys in this contest stems from the fact that there are substantially more TEA Party voters than traditional conservatives in Texas this year, which mirrors a national trend. The race is essentially a dead heat among Texas moderates, with Dewhurst winning 39% and Cruz winning 38% support. The race does feature a serious split along gender lines, the survey shows. It is a toss-up among women, but Cruz leads 53% to 35% over Dewhurst among men. Among younger voters or those over age 70, Dewhurst enjoys an edge over Cruz, but Cruz leads among voters in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. Among those who said they are firm in their choice in the race, Cruz leads Dewhurst, 56% to 44%. Among those who said there is a possibility they could change their mind before they vote, Cruz also enjoys a 55% to 45% edge. Dewhurst is strongest among the most uncertain supporters, leading by a 63% to 38% margin among those who are very open to changing their mind before they vote. This is a clear advantage for Cruz, though a significant segment of this electorate is still unsure just what they will do with their ballots. This is consistent with other similar races across the country this year, where many GOP voters have waited until the last minute to make up their minds.
Q. If the runoff election for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator was today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst, for whom would you vote?
BALLOT TEST Frequency CRUZ DEWHURST Valid NOT SURE Total 86 600 14.3 100.0 14.3 100.0 100.0 285 229 Percent 47.5 38.2 Valid Percent 47.5 38.2 Cumulative Percent 47.5 85.7