Methodologies for Identifying Trends in Patent Portfolios

Key Question
What methods can be used to isolate trends in patent portfolios for a given telecommunications system, or computer manufacturers?

Methodologies
Patent Evolution Method Inventor Identification Method Patent Portfolio Trends Using Mathematics Method Patent Value Citation Analysis

Identifying Patent Class Trends Using Patent Software

Description
Uses patent analysis software to create a patent class evolution chart Derwent used in this example Can identify trends within a companys patent portfolio by analysis of software generated chart

Strengths
Easy to apply method Results in a good, easy to interpret graphic

Weaknesses
Needs access to all relevant patent databases If using Cobalt IP, the graph shows only US classes
Need to be able to convert US classes to IPC classes

1. Enter in company name 2. Enter in years

3. Search

1. Begin search

Source: MAMPT

1. Type name 2. Select IPC

3. Select publication year

4. Select number of items

2. Select chart options Create custom stacked bar chart

Source: MAMPT

Growing Class Steady Class

3. Chart
Source: MAMPT

4. Analyze results Look for:

Steady patent filing numbers and growing patent classes with the highest numbers of patents Growing classes are technologies the company is developing Patent classes with steady, high numbers of filings are technologies the company widely uses and is likely to continue using

Application of Technique
All three target companies steadily file for classes:
H04L (Transmission of Digital Information) H04W (Wireless Communications Networks)

Qualcomm Patent Class Evolution

Source: MAMPT

Huawei Patent Class Evolution

Source: MAMPT

Ericsson Patent Class Evolution

Source: MAMPT

Identifying Companies by Top Assignees in a Class Using Patent Software

Description
This methodology identifies top assignees (companies) within a patent classification Charts companies filing patterns within that classification over time Identifies companies filing trends within patent classifications

Strengths
Reliable, quantifiable data
Effective visual representation

Weaknesses
Thomson Reuters only shows data as far back as five years sometimes If using Cobalt IP, the graph shows only US classes
Need to be able to convert US classes to IPC classes

1.To create a chart of top companies in one patent class: Type patent class in Advanced Search
Source: MAMPT

2. Refine Search Select ALL children classes of desired subclass

Source: MAMPT

3. Create a chart
Source: MAMPT

4. Create a chart contd. Select the Top Assignees by Year chart

Source: MAMPT

5. Create a chart contd. This one utilized Top 10 Assignees by Count

Source: MAMPT

Dominant company

Developing Company

Source: MAMPT

6. View Results This charting feature only shows results since 2005 because the software did not find any older results

7. Analyze results Look for:

Major drops and increases in filings - these may denote strategy changes Steady patent filing numbers and growing patent classes with the highest numbers of patents to determine trends Companies with steady, high numbers of filings are likely to continue using the selected class Emerging companies

Application of Technique
Main companies for classes H04L and H04W: In H04L, IBM was the dominant company through 2010 with Cisco making gains

In H04W, Samsung was the dominant company through 2008, but in 2010 Qualcomm overtook them

H04L Evolution

Dominant company

Developing Company

Source: MAMPT

H04W Evolution

Prominent Company

Major Growth

Source: MAMPT

H04W 3-D Evolution

Qualcomm overtakes Samsung

Source: MAMPT

Methodology for Identification and Evaluation of Inventors

Description
Identifies quality of inventors for the target company Allows monitoring of important inventors

Strengths
Determines quality of inventors Determines who is working with whom Quick method for assessing many inventors Considers patents expired, number of citations, and quality of citations

Weaknesses
Different maintenance fees for each country Low quality/unpredictable inventors Variable values differ when considering different time periods

Provides information on quality of inventors based on PEI, PCI, and CQ

Patent Citation Index
Inventor Quality Index

Inventor Quality

1PEI+5PCI+4CQ=IQ(100 Points Total)

Patent Expired Points Citations Quality Index

Ranges and Assessment

Source: MAMPT

Patent Expiration Index

Provides information on how many patents are not Ranges and Points maintained within the 20-years period
Nr of Patents Expired

PEI= (PE/AP)*1000
Patent Expiration Index Nr of All Patents

Source: MAMPT

Patent Citation Index

Provides information on how many times on average on patent is cited
Nr of Patent Citations

Ranges and Points

PCI= (PC/AP)*1000
Patent Citations Index Nr of All Patents

Source: MAMPT

Citation Quality Index

Provides information on how patent citations are distributed within different companies
Nr of Citations by one Assignee

Ranges and Points

Citations Quality Index

Sum of All Citations

Source: MAMPT

1. Find inventors The easy way to find inventors within the company is to search by a corporate tree
Source: MAMPT

2. Check most popular inventors Names and number of patents granted per inventor are available at the Inventor filter
Source: MAMPT

3. Search for a specific inventor Always use the full name in the Inventor search
Source: MAMPT

4. Insert number of patents to MS Excel spreadsheet Inventor filter shows names and number of patents granted per inventor
Source: MAMPT

5. Build the forward citations chart

Source: MAMPT

6. Count citations Count all citations and citations by assignee

Source: MAMPT

7. Insert data Inventor spreadsheet automatically calculates inventor quality (IQ)

Source: MAMPT

8. Search expired patents Search by an inventor and INPADOC Legal Status FP (Failure to Pay Maintenance Fees) to obtain a number of patents expired
Source: MAMPT

9. Insert data Insert number of expired patents in respective cells

Source: MAMPT

10.Sort inventors by IQ number High quality inventors are more likely to produce important patents in the future
Source: MAMPT

Sample Profile Qualcomm

Junyi Li
Current position Vice President of Technology at Qualcomm Past positions Senior Director of Engineering at Flarion Technologies Member of Technical Staff at Bell Labs, Lucent Technologies Education The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Purdue University Shanghai Jiao Tong University All patents Citations 1407 2860

Patents Expired 0

Source: http://media.linkedin.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_80_80/p/3/000/080/33b/11 f93d2.jpg

Sample Profile Ericsson

Fong, MO-Han
Current position Director of Wireless Technologies and Standards at Intel Corporation Past positions Senior Director of Engineering at Flarion Technologies Member of Technical Staff at Bell Labs, Lucent Technologies Education The University of Victoria All patents Citations 600 1521

Patents Expired 1

Sample Profile Huawei

Lei Miao
Current position Chief Engineer, Audio LAB at Huawei Past positions Engineer at Samsung AIT

Education Tsinghua University Xi'an Jiao Tong University

All patents Citations

191 506

Patents Expired 0

Source: http://tinyurl.com/d82yqov

Application of Technique

Make link chart

Patent Portfolio Trends Using Mathematics

Description
This methodology uses linear regressions or trendlines to examine a companys patent portfolio A positive trendline indicates a given company is increasing patent filings, suggesting innovation May aid in forecasting a companys patent filings

Strengths
Easy to understand visual representation of a companys current patent portfolio Extending the trendline along the same trajectory could aid in forecasting the number of patent filings

Source: MAMPT

Weaknesses
Does not work for companies with weak correlations Estimations do not consider other factors (i.e. economy, technology)

Source: MAMPT

1. Obtain total patent filings since 2000

Source: MAMPT

2. Determine the correlation between the years and the patent data Correlation should be above 0.85 to be useful
Source: MAMPT

3. Graph the linear regression

Source: MAMPT

Number of Patent Applications

Year

Y = mx + b
Slope Y-Intercept

Number of Data Points

All X Coordinates

All Y Coordinates

Slope = (nxy - x y)/(nx2 (x)2) Y-Intercept = (x2 y - x xy)/(nx2 (x)2) 4. If the equation of the linear regression is desired, use the method of least squares

5. Analyze results
Look at the graph and equation to determine trends in the companys patent data
Source: MAMPT

Application of Technique
Successful for Qualcomm (correlations?) and Huawei (correlations?) Unsuccessful for Ericsson
Correlation was 0.53

Application of Technique Qualcomm

Y = 514.97x -1030199.96
Number of Patent Applications Year

Chart through 2017

Application of Technique Huawei

Y = 437.57x 875982.59
Number of Patent Applications Year

Chart through 2017

Evaluation
Linearity indicates company direction
Companies with positive linear trend lines file more patents each year Positive trend lines may indicate innovation

May aid in forecasting a companys patent filings

Proposed Experiments
Examine linearity of patent filings by subclass
May indicate the company is making technological advancements in a given field