BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LINKAGES

International Finance & Trade

PART I. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT
CATEGORIES

A. THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (B-OP)

1. PURPOSE: Measures all financial and economic transactions over a specified period of time.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES
2. Double-entry bookkeeping

a. Currency inflows = credits earn foreign exchange

b. Currency outflows = debits expend foreign exchange

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

3. Three Major Accounts:

a. b. c. Current Capital Official Reserves

4. Current Account
records net flow of goods, services, and unilateral transfers.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

5. Capital Account
a. Function: records public and private investment and lending. b. Inflows = credits c. Outflows = debits

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

5. Capital Account (cont)

d. Transactions classified as 1.) portfolio

2.) direct
3.) short term

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

6. Official Reserves Account

a. Function: 1.) measures changes in international reserves owned by central banks. 2.) reflects surplus/deficit of a.) current account b.) capital account

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

6. Official Reserves Account (cont)

b. Reserves consist of 1.) gold 2.) convertible securities

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

7. Net Effects:
a. Sum of all transactions must be zero:

1.) current account 2.) capital account 3.) official reserves

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES
8. The Balance-of-payment measures
a. Some Definitions:
1.) Basic Balance

a.) consists of current account and long-term capital flows.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

1.) Basic Balance (cont)

b.) emphasizes long-term trends.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

1.) Basic Balance (cont)

c.) excludes short-term capital flows that heavily depend on temporary factors.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES
2.) Net Liquidity Balance:
measures the change in private domestic borrowing or lending require to keep payments equal without adjusting official reserves.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES

3.) Official Reserve Transactions Balance

- measures adjustments needed by official reserves.

PART II. THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

II. LINKS FROM INTERNATIONAL TO DOMESTIC FLOWS

A. Global Linkages set of basic macroeconomic identities which link: domestic spending and production to current and capital accounts

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

B. Domestic Savings and Investment and the Capital Account

1. National Income Accounting a. National Income (NI) is either spent (C) or saved (S) NI = C + S (5.1)

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

b. National spending (NS) is divided into personal spending (C) and investment (I)

NS = C + I

(5.2)

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

c. Subtracting (5.2) - (5.1) NI - NS = S - I

(5.3)

If NI >NS, S > I which implies that surplus capital spent overseas.

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

d. In a freely-floating system, excess saving = the capital account balance Implications: 1. A nation which produces more than it spends will save more than it invests domestically with a net capital outflow producing a capital account deficit.

e.

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

2. A nation which spends more than it produces has a net capital inflow producing a capital account surplus. 3. A healthy economy will tend to run a current account deficit.

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

C. THE LINK BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

1. Beginning identity NI - NS = X - M (5.4) where X = exports M = imports X-M=current account balance (CA)

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

2. 3. Combining (5.3) + (5.4) S - I = X - M (5.5) If S - I = Net Foreign Investment (NFI) NFI = X - M (5.6)

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

4. Implications: a. If CA is in surplus, the nation must be a net exporter of capital. b. If CA is a deficit, the nation is a major capital importer. c. When NS > NI, the excess must be acquired through foreign trade.

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

d. Solutions for Improving CA deficits: 1.) Raise national income (output) relative to domestic investment (I).

2.)

Increase (S) relative to domestic investment (I).

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

D. GOVERNMENT BUDGETS AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CA = Saving Surplus - Govt budget deficit

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL

2. CA Deficit means the nation is not saving enough to finance (I) and the deficit. 3. CA Surplus means the nation is saving more than needed finance its (I) and deficit. to

PART III. COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT I. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS UNLIKELY TO WORK:
A. Currency Depreciation

B.

Protectionism

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

II.CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
A. U.S. Experience: Does not improve the trade deficit.

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

B. Depreciations are ineffective because 1. It takes time to affect trade. 2. J-Curve Effect states that a decline in currency value will initially worsen the deficit before improvement.

THE J - CURVE
Net change in trade balance
0 Trade balance improves

Currency depreciation

TIME

Trade balance initially deteriorates

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

III. PROTECTIONISM
A. Trade Barriers used: 1. Tariffs 2. Quotas Results: Most likely will reduce both X and M.

B.

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

C. FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
one protectionist solution would place limits on or eliminate foreign ownership leading to capital inflows.

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

D. STIMULATE NATIONAL SAVING
change the tax regulations and rates.

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

III. SUMMARY: CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICITS
- neither bad nor good inherently 1. Since one countrys exports are anothers imports, it is not possible for all to run a surplus

COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

2. Deficits may be a solution to the problem of different national propensities to save and invest.