HAZARD ANALYSIS

The process of defining a hazard

Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., CEM
Emergency Management Process Series No. 1 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

HAZARDS
Existing condition or possible (under current conditions) situation that has the potential to generate a disaster Natural hazards naturally occurring phenomena weather, topographic, geological, hydrological, etc. Human systems developed caused by human activity, infrastructure, transportation, etc. Conflict based civil war, terrorism, nuclear war, etc.

THE ANALYSIS PROCESS

(1) identify possible hazards (2) characterize each hazard (3) apply a rating or assessment metric (4) communicate the results

IDENTIFYING HAZARDS
Consider two basic realities There is no place on the earths surface that is without hazard Almost any hazard can impact almost any place fewer directly, more indirectly The result is a list of hazards that is nearly endless for any specific location How then do we narrow the field?

FINDING HAZARDS
(1) Response history (2) What has happened elsewhere (3) Hazard survey (4) Local disaster history (5) Current scientific knowledge (6) Environmental sensing Then do it all again on a regular schedule

CHARACTERIZING HAZARDS
It should be obvious that hazards are not identical, not uniform, not exclusive, and not transposable This means that we have to understand each hazard in the context of its time and place

CHARACTERIZING HAZARDS
You must answer all of the following in terms of your situation: Magnitude and intensity ranges? Time, and season? Duration? Timeline of development? Place and extent of impact area? Frequency? Can it be predicted? Related hazards? Cascading effects?

OUTCOMES
Higher magnitude and/or intensity = increased hazard Time and season a longer period during which these events typically occur = increased hazard Duration - generally longer duration events = increased hazard Timeline of development generally shorter development = increased hazard

OUTCOMES
A critical location at risk or a widearea impact = increased hazard Higher frequency = increased hazard Events that can be predicted only with difficulty = higher hazard Events that are related to and can be triggered by or trigger other events = higher hazard

THE TIME HORIZON

Very important to determine what the time horizon of your assessment is A short time period (in the next 2 years) Infrequent events become low hazard Frequent events become high hazard A longer time period (in the next 100 years) Infrequent events increase in hazard A very long time period (the next 500 years) Infrequent catastrophic events become higher hazard

ASSESSMENT
Assessing hazards is a very difficult process
Wide range of variability in the where, when, what, and how bad of events

In many cases we have insufficient data or understanding to make highly accurate assessments In other cases time precludes in depth analysis

TWO APPROACHES
Qualitative
Assesses using fuzzy judgment Communicates in broad categories

Quantitative
Assesses using defined criteria Communicates using numbers

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
[1] Define the levels [2] Accumulate information [3] Invite participation by experts [4] Describe the process and provide an overview [5] Develop consensus

QUALITATIVE TERMS
A possible standard: Extreme - community can no longer function High large number of deaths, similar number of injuries, wide property damage, function difficult Moderate small number of deaths, larger number of injuries, wide property damage, function under strain Low no deaths, few injuries, little property damage, community services function close to normal

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
There are a wide variety of approaches:
Rating hazards by total number of key factors Rating hazards by points for each key factor Rating hazards by formulas that reflect interactions between components of the hazard

TOTAL NUMBER
High magnitude X All year hazard 0 Duration X Timeline short X Location wide area X Frequency annual 0 Not predicted X Related hazards 0 Cascading effects - 0

POINTS
High magnitude 6 All year hazard 3 Duration 8 Timeline short 10 Location wide area 10 Frequency annual 1 Not predicted 10 Related hazards 0 Cascading effects - 0

THE FORMULA
Magnitude x 2 x number of months of duration Plus area of potential impact divided by area of community x 10 All x 24 divided by warning time in hours plus a prediction constant All x frequency of events in a 100 year period divided by100

THE FORMULA PROBLEM

Some quantitative analyses use formulas to arrive at numerical values for the hazard level Check to make sure the mathematics really measure what they say they measure Common errors are to: add factors that should be multiplied, or vice versa, apply constants that are not constant, and mix values that are unrelated

FORMULA EXAMPLE
Your locality has hurricanes and tornadoes as its two primary natural disaster hazards Which of the following is the best formula to express that relationship?
Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricanes + tornadoes = hazard x tornadoes = hazard or tornadoes = hazard and tornadoes = hazard

MIX TYPES?
Do we create one single list of all hazards, or Separate lists of natural, human systems, or conflict based hazards? And which goes first? The answer depends on: The function the analysis performs, The programmatic structure of the organization, and/or Current doctrine

PRIORITIZING
Ratings suggest we will rank order the outcomes Highest to lowest, either overall or by class Understand that the list is only a guide But that decision makers will believe it is an absolute reflection of reality

THE FUTURE
Hazard analysis for today
The typical hazard analysis

Or hazard analysis for tomorrow

Project forward to the planning horizon Identify trends Identifying emerging hazards Allows proactive rather than reactive planning for mitigation and preparedness

COMMUNICATION
Typically a written report that describes the method used, identifies the hazards, and ranks them Report should clearly identify the time period for which it is valid, other restrictions to the scope, and underlying assumptions Distributed as needed Used as the basis for vulnerability assessment