Agro-Meteorological Impact Assessment for Bega 2012/13

February, 2013

Outline of Presentation
Introduction Computed Moisture status(RF/PET) and NDVI Computed Rangeland WRSI Adverse weather impact on agriculture from Field Reports Summary

AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES DURING BEGA SEASON Harvest and post harvest activities are practices over most Meher growing areas of the country. It is the second rainy time for southern and southeastern lowlands of the country So planting & performing water-harvest activities Untimely rain and favorable environment some times favored the out break of pest and diseases . The dry air with RH less than 30% and daily Max temp. greater than 35C and windy Begas weather situation might have favored for the occurrence and spread of forest fire. Cool early morning and night temperature occur frost hazard over northeastern, central, eastern and southern highlands of the country.

DISCUSSION

MOISTURE STATUSE, NDVI & DEVATION OF NDVI FOR OCTOBER 2012

Humid to Moist moisture status observed over most parts of SNNPR, southwestern Somalia, southern and western Oromia, BenshagulGumuz and Gambela, while moderately dry moisture condition prevailed over most parts of southern and eastern portion of the Somalia, southwestern and northern Amhara, some parts of southwestern Oromia, this might have a positive impact on the availability pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas of the country, water requirement for perennial plants and Meher crops that does not attain its maturity. while the rest parts of the country exhibited dry to very dry moisture condition thus might have favor Meher harvest and post harvest activities. NDVI and also the deviation from normal images shows good vegetation condition as moisture status .

MOISTURE STATUSE, NDVI & DEVATION OF NDVI FOR NOVEMBER 2012

Humid to Moist moisture condition observed over most parts of southwestern Amhara, southern and eastern tip of Tigray, much of SNNPR, Benshangul-Gumuz, southern and western Oromia, eastern and southern Gambela while Moderately dry moisture statues observed over pocket areas of eastern Amhara, central Oromia, Benshangul-Gumuz, western portion of Gambela, southern Somalia. Thus might have a positive impact for Meher crops that are not fully matured and late sown pulse crops, perennial plants and availability pasture and drinking water over the aforementioned areas. While negative impact on harvest and post-harvest activities of Mehre crops that was fully matured and NDVI and the deviation from normal images shows slight improvement.

MOISTURE STATUSE, NDVI & DEVATION OF NDVI FOR DECEMBER 2012

Humid to moist moisture condition observed over most parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of southwestern Oromia, while Moderately dry moisture condition observed over southern Oromia some parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of eastern Somalia. Thus might have favored availability pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas and NDVI and the deviation from normal images shows good improvement.

MOISTURE STATUSE, NDVI & DEVATION OF NDVI FOR January 2013

Humid to moist moisture condition observed over most parts of SNNPR, Oromia, Gambella, southern and southwestern Somalia, western Tigray and western Amhara and western Benshangul-Gumuz, while Moderately dry moisture statues observed over much of Amhara, Tigray, central Oromia, pocket areas of Afar, southeastern Somalia and eastern Benshangul-Gumuz, Thus might have a positive impact on the ongoing agricultural activities, water requirement for perennial plants and availability pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas and NDVI and the deviation from normal images shows good improvement over Belg rain Benefiting areas of the country .

General Moisture condition of Bega 2012/13

Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013

Bega 2O13
In general Beg 2012/13 moist to humid moisture condition exhibited over most Bega rain Benefiting areas of southern, southwestern and southeastern parts of the country would have a positive impact for the availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro-pastoral areas and water satisfaction for perennial plants. While dry to very dry moisture condition would favor harvest and post harvest activities of Meher crops.

Bega 2012/13 Moisture Status compared with 2006/7 & 2009/10 analogue years
Oct 2012
Nov2012 Dec 2012

Jan 2013

Oct 2006

Nov2006

Dec 2006

Jan 2007

Oct 2009

Nov 2009

Dec 2009

Jan 2010

Bega 2012/13 NDVI compared with 2006/7 and 2009/10 analogue year

Oct 2012

Nov 2012

Dec 2012

Jan 2013

Oct 2006

Nov 2006

Dec 2006

Jan 2007

Oct 2009

Nov 2009

Dec 2009

Jan2010

Computed WRSI of rangeland for the given analogue years 2006/7 and 2009/10

Oct 2012

Nov 2012

Dec 2012
Legend

Jan 2013

Oct 2006

Nov 2006

Dec 2006

Jan 2007

Oct 2009

Nov 2009

Dec 2009

Jan 2010

Adverse weather impact on agriculture information from filed report

Report from NMA Station Pawe reported Soya bean( ) and other different crops damage due to heavy fall and hail storm in 1/11/2012 during the season. Report DRMFSS During October 2012 In Tiray, Bensangul- Gumuz, Gambela and Oromia regional state in some woredas (434hr of land 90%) untimely rain associated with hail cause shattering of matured crops and eroding of crops on Teff, Wheat, Horse bean() and sesame() seed. Eastern shao zone in few woredas cloia colia( ) cause slight damage on crops. Low lands of Bale zone due to scarce rainfall cause shortage of drinking water and pasture in the pastoralist areas. In SNNPR some woreda about 18 hectare of land was affected by yellow rest on Wheat and Barely crops. In some woredas of Tigray and Dire Dawa early cessation of Kiremt rain cause wilting on un matured Maize and sorghum crops.

Conclusion & Recommendation Seasonally dry region of the country where crops are ready to harvest would have positive impact on harvest and post harvest activities. Unseasonable rainfall over seasonally dry sector of the country would have slight negative impact on harvest and post harvest activities Untimely rain over some areas of the country would cause shattering and eroding of matured un harvested Meher crops on Teff, Wheat, Horse bean() and sesame() seed Bega cool early morning and night temperature over northeastern, eastern, southern and central highland of the country would have a negative contribution on the normal growth and development of plants and animals in the areas.
The indicated good moisture status and increase in vegetation cover and Rangeland index based on WRSI on the selected analogue years particularly on the month of October and November would favor to fulfill water satisfaction for Meher crops that are not full matured, late sown pulses and Oil crops, perennial plants and availability of pasture and drinking water. The indicated good moisture status and increase in vegetation cover south and southeastern parts of the country would have a positive impact for the availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

Thank you for your attention