NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

Policy Scenarios to 2050

11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007
Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes

World Energy Council

World Energy Council (WEC)

To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all

Established in 1923 as the World Power Conference Member Committees in 97 countries Multi-energy, non-governmental, noncommercial

World Energy Council (WEC)

To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all

Triennial World Energy Congress Work Programme: Studies, Technical Committees, Regional Programmes, Global Energy Information System (GEIS)

Global Energy Information System (GEIS)

www.worldenergy.org

Africa Today
Area: 15% of the world total Population: 14% of the world total GDP: 1.6% of the world total Rich and diverse in natural resources Least developed continent Regional integration and cooperation

Environment
3.6% of global GHG emissions Power generation, road transport, biomass Significant differences between sub-regions
(Southern Africa> 50%)

Main Challenges
Low access to modern energy High dependence on biomass Poor infrastructure Inefficient technologies High costs of energy projects Lack of technical expertise Bad governance Weak co-operation and integration

WEC Scenarios
3As Methodology:
Accessibility (modern & affordable energy services)
Availability (security of supply)

Acceptability (sustainable production and use)

WEC Scenarios
Focus on policies, government engagement, integration, cooperation Government Engagement vs Cooperation and Integration

POLICY AXES
Interventionist (Heavy)

Scenario II

Scenario III

Government Engagement

Scenario I
Enabling (Light) Nationalism (Exclusive)

Scenario IV

Integration / Co-Operation

Globalism (Inclusive)

Conclusions
Scenarios I and II not favourable Scenario III constructive till 2035 Scenario IV likely for 2035-2050 Regional cooperation starting from sub-regional level

Recommendations
Promote investment & develop local capital markets Strengthen regional cooperation Technology transfer & capacity building Support for renewable energy

Recommendations
Hydro & nuclear for long-term Biofuels instead of gasoline Energy efficiency and conservation Deeper cooperation with international and regional institutions Benefit from the introduction of WTO rules

Energy for Prosperity Energy for Peace

Concerted action required Marshall Plan for Africa Public/private partnership Action today

Thank you!

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