Business

Research Methods

William G. Zikmund

Chapter 21:
Univariate Statistics

Univariate Statistics
Test of statistical significance
Hypothesis testing one variable at a time
Hypothesis
Unproven proposition
Supposition that tentatively explains certain
facts or phenomena
Assumption about nature of the world
Hypothesis
An unproven proposition or supposition that
tentatively explains certain facts or
phenomena
Null hypothesis
Alternative hypothesis
Null Hypothesis
Statement about the status quo
No difference
Alternative Hypothesis
Statement that indicates the opposite of the
null hypothesis
Significance Level
Critical probability in choosing between the
null hypothesis and the alternative
hypothesis
Significance Level
Critical Probability
Confidence Level
Alpha
Probability Level selected is typically .05 or
.01
Too low to warrant support for the null
hypothesis

0 . 3 : =
o
H
The null hypothesis that the mean is
equal to 3.0:
0 . 3 :
1
= H
The alternative hypothesis that the
mean does not equal to 3.0:
A Sampling Distribution

=3.0
x

=3.0
x
o=.025
o=.025
A Sampling Distribution

LOWER
LIMIT
UPPER
LIMIT
=3.0
A Sampling Distribution
Critical values of
Critical value - upper limit
n
S
Z ZS
X
+ + = or
|
.
|

\
|
+ =
225
5 . 1
96 . 1 0 . 3
( ) 1 . 0 96 . 1 0 . 3 + =
196 . 0 . 3 + =
196 . 3 =
Critical values of
Critical value - lower limit
n
S
Z ZS
X
- or - =
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
225
5 . 1
96 . 1 - 0 . 3
Critical values of
( ) 1 . 0 96 . 1 0 . 3 =
196 . 0 . 3 =
804 . 2 =
Critical values of
Region of Rejection

LOWER
LIMIT
UPPER
LIMIT
=3.0
Hypothesis Test

2.804
3.196
=3.0
3.78
Accept null Reject null
Null is true
Null is false
Correct-
no error
Type I
error
Type II
error
Correct-
no error
Type I and Type II Errors
Type I and Type II Errors
in Hypothesis Testing
State of Null Hypothesis Decision
in the Population Accept Ho Reject Ho

Ho is true Correct--no error Type I error
Ho is false Type II error Correct--no error
Calculating Z
obs
x s
x
z
obs

=
X
obs
S
X
Z

=
Alternate Way of Testing the
Hypothesis
X
obs
S
Z

=
78 . 3
1 .
0 . 3 78 . 3
=
1 .
78 . 0
= 8 . 7 =
Alternate Way of Testing the
Hypothesis
Choosing the Appropriate
Statistical Technique
Type of question to be answered
Number of variables
Univariate
Bivariate
Multivariate
Scale of measurement
PARAMETRIC
STATISTICS
NONPARAMETRIC
STATISTICS
t-Distribution
Symmetrical, bell-shaped distribution
Mean of zero and a unit standard deviation
Shape influenced by degrees of freedom
Degrees of Freedom
Abbreviated d.f.
Number of observations
Number of constraints
or
X
l c
S t X
. .
=
n
S
t X
l c . .
limit Upper + =
n
S
t X
l c . .
limit Lower =
Confidence Interval Estimate
Using the t-distribution
= population mean
= sample mean
= critical value of t at a specified confidence
level
= standard error of the mean
= sample standard deviation
= sample size

. .l c
t

X
X
S
S
n
Confidence Interval Estimate Using
the t-distribution
x
cl
s t X =
17
66 . 2
7 . 3
=
=
=
n
S
X
Confidence Interval Estimate Using
the t-distribution
07 . 5
) 17 66 . 2 ( 12 . 2 7 . 3 limit upper
=
+ =
33 . 2
) 17 66 . 2 ( 12 . 2 7 . 3 limit Lower
=
=
Hypothesis Test Using the
t-Distribution
Suppose that a production manager believes
the average number of defective assemblies
each day to be 20. The factory records the
number of defective assemblies for each of the
25 days it was opened in a given month. The
mean was calculated to be 22, and the
standard deviation, ,to be 5.
X
S
Univariate Hypothesis Test
Utilizing the t-Distribution
20 :
20 :
1
0
=
=

H
H
n S S
X
/ =
25 / 5 =
1 =
The researcher desired a 95 percent
confidence, and the significance level becomes
.05.The researcher must then find the upper
and lower limits of the confidence interval to
determine the region of rejection. Thus, the
value of t is needed. For 24 degrees of
freedom (n-1, 25-1), the t-value is 2.064.
Univariate Hypothesis Test
Utilizing the t-Distribution
: limit Lower
( ) 25 / 5 064 . 2 20
. .
=
X
l c
S t
( ) 1 064 . 2 20 =
936 . 17 =
: limit Upper
( ) 25 / 5 064 . 2 20
. .
+ = +
X
l c
S t
( ) 1 064 . 2 20+ =
064 . 20 =
X
obs
S
X
t

=
1
20 22
=
1
2
=
2 =
Univariate Hypothesis Test
t-Test
Testing a Hypothesis about a
Distribution
Chi-Square test
Test for significance in the analysis of
frequency distributions
Compare observed frequencies with
expected frequencies
Goodness of Fit

=
i
i i
) (

E
E O
x
Chi-Square Test
x = chi-square statistics
O
i
= observed frequency in the i
th
cell
E
i
= expected frequency on the i
th
cell
Chi-Square Test
n
C R
E
j i
ij
=
Chi-Square Test
Estimation for Expected Number
for Each Cell
Chi-Square Test
Estimation for Expected Number
for Each Cell
R
i
= total observed frequency in the i
th
row
C
j
= total observed frequency in the j
th
column
n = sample size
( ) ( )
2
2
2 2
1
2
1 1
2
E
E O
E
E O
X

=
Univariate Hypothesis Test
Chi-square Example
( ) ( )
50
50 40
50
50 60
2 2
2

= X
4 =
Univariate Hypothesis Test
Chi-square Example
Hypothesis Test of a Proportion
t is the population proportion
p is the sample proportion
t is estimated with p
5 . : H
5 . : H
1
0
= t
= t
Hypothesis Test of a Proportion
( )( )
100
4 . 0 6 . 0
=
p
S
100
24 .
=
0024 . =
04899 . =
p
S
p
Zobs
t
=
04899 .
5 . 6 .
=
04899 .
1 .
=
04 . 2 =
0115 . S
p
=
000133 . S
p
=
1200
16 .
S
p
=
1200
) 8 )(. 2 (.
S
p
=
n
pq
S
p
=
20 . p
=
200 , 1 n
=
Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:
Another Example
0115 . S
p
=
000133 . S
p
=
1200
16 .
S
p
=
1200
) 8 )(. 2 (.
S
p
=
n
pq
S
p
=
20 . p
=
200 , 1 n
=
Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:
Another Example
Indeed .001 the beyond t significant is it
level. .05 the at rejected be should hypothesis null the so 1.96, exceeds value Z The
348 . 4 Z
0115 .
05 .
Z
0115 .
15 . 20 .
Z
S
p
Z
p
=
=

=
t
=
Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:
Another Example