Arthur KCebrowskiv 2

Transforming Defense
Office of Force Transformation
The Path Not Taken
yet
The Role of Defense in National Security The Management of Defense The Force Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 4 September 2003 NDIA T2 Technologies
Vision: Broad and Sustained Competitive Advantage
What do these have in common?

Understanding of Network Relationships is Critical

node failure
node attack
We need to understand. We need to prepare. We need to deliver. The question is how?
Global Trends
Globalization II
Globalization III
Industrial Age
Information Age
Global Trends
Industrial Age
Success = Scale + Scope Top Down - Centralized Vertical Integration Information Hoarding Local Awareness Arms Length Relationships Make and Sell Inwardly Focused
Information Age
Success = Adaptability + Agility Empowering the Edges Virtual Integration Information Sharing Increased Transparency Collaboration & Synchronization Sense and Respond Externally Oriented Accelerated Innovation & Experimentation
New Rules New Behaviors New Competencies New Relationships
Global Trends
Globalization II
Static, bipolar market Bulk of population in 3rd World Limits on security exports Beliefs in Conflict: Political Ideology Ordering principle = Great Power War; yet none since 1945
Globalization III
Also bifurcated, but very fluid 4 Billion in Core, 2 Billion in Gap Unlimited global demand for security exports Beliefs in Conflict: Religion/culture Warfare now simultaneous across system, state and individual levels
Proliferation of WMD & military technology
New Rules New Institutions New Security Environment Disconnectedness Danger
Global Trends
Information Age
Short Cycle Time New Competencies Adaptive Planning Integrated Joint Interdependent
Globalization II
Developed Rules Mature Markets Narrowing Customer Base Security=Defense
Globalization III
Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Customer Base Emerging Security=All Else+Defense
Industrial Age
Long Cycle Time Well Developed Tools/Processes Deliberate Planning Deconflicted Joint Tortured Interoperability
Global Trends
Military Response
The Emerging American Military:

More expeditionary (including lighter, more lethal) More networked Designed to leverage the exterior positions (precision from distance as sensors move in) Leverages increasingly persistent ISR Tighter sensor-shooter timelines (sensing, C2, fly-out) Values Information Superiority (information operations) Expanded unmanned capabilities (UAV, UCAV, UUV, robotics)
Information Age
Iraq 2
Iraq 1
Industrial Age
Global TrendsThreats
Strategic Response
Strategic Capabilities:
More Preventative- Less Punitive Achieve unambiguous warning earlier More SOF-Like characteristics A Deter Forward Force An Intel/Surveillance-based force Coping with systems perturbations
Globalization II
Globalization III
System State Individual
-----[Great Power War?]----Political Ideology Narcoterrorists Hated Dictator Regional Terrorists Hated Dictator w/Nukes Nuclear Nationalists
International SEI w/Bugs Terrorists
Top Level Issues

Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes
Volunteer (Recruited) Force Citizen Soldier
Professional
Warrior + Enforcer + Systems Administrator Projecting Power Event Focused Exporting Security Continuous
Punitive
Access to Battlespace
Preventative
Access to Political Victory
Policy = Power x Moral Principle
Challenge for USG Intelligence (and Enemy)

Asset wars Industrial technical power Information dominance Precise physical targeting Intelligence: secret nuggets and EEIs
Elite wars Decapitation, insurgency, infiltration Religion & ideology focus Human & group targeting Intelligence: the network and dynamics
Elite wars mobilize via non-military assets Irregular time paths and periods Both sides can use technology (and terror) against enemy strength Connectivity and ideology of elites is key in fighting wars Elite wars are political, social and economic science-centered
The Strategic Corporal

Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector

Information Age Primary Axis of IT Consulting Company Competencies
Where Successful Companies Are Operating
Globalization II
Globalization III Primary Axis of Strategy Consulting Company Competencies
Where Many Companies Are Operating

Industrial Age
Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector

Information Age
Primary Axis of Engineering School Competencies
Where Some Business Schools Are Operating
Globalization II
Globalization III
Where Most Business Schools Were Operating

Industrial Age
Primary Axis of Business School Competencies
Education and Transformation

Information Age Primary Axis of Air Force Institute of Technology Naval Postgraduate School Competencies
Where DoD Needs to Operate What Education needs to Facilitate

Globalization III
Globalization II
Current Focus of PME

Primary Axis of War College Competencies
Industrial Age
Training and Transformation

Information Age
Volunteer (Recruited) Force Citizen Soldier Warrior + Enforcer + Systems Administrator Professional
Primary Axis of Advanced Distributed Learning at War Colleges and Regional Centers
Projecting Power
Exporting Security
Event Focused Punitive

Access to Battlespace
Continuous Preventative
Access to Political Victory
Policy = Power x Moral Principle
Globalization II Primary Axis of Individual Competencies Current Focus of Joint Knowledge Development and Distribution Capability
Globalization III
Link to New Political Objectives Creative Opportunities in Every Event Train the Strategic Corporal Experimentation is Leader Training
Industrial Age
Operation Iraqi Freedom

What we saw
Grand Strategies in Tension

the 21st century and September 11th have, in fact, changed the circumstances in the world significantly. Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
Network-Centric Warfare Implementation

it allowed us to make decisions and execute those decisions faster than any opponent. Lt. Gen. David D. McKiernan
The Power of Transformation

a campaignunlike anything that we have seen before, Gen. Tommy Franks
The Power of Transformation

What we saw
NCW implementation The power of shared awareness

ISR High speed networking New capabilities / TTPs The non-contiguous battlespace
A new Airpower Land power intersection

All weather weapons / CAS / Interdiction Speed Weight of Fire vs Precision
Networking + ISR = Speed Information running ahead of the physics
Movement toward tactical level jointness / interoperability

Especially SOF
Speed Creates the Appearance of an Incompetent Opponent ISR + Speed + Lethality => Bad Options for the Enemy A New Sweet Spot
What We Also Saw

What We Also Saw

Strategic Issues
Strategic Maneuver/Balance Forces forward Strategic deploy from home Allies Operational Maneuver From forward garrison From the sea From strategic distances
Deter Forward 2d derivative force Sustaining force Constabulary/Nation-building force
and what we didnt see

Operational maneuver
From strategic distances (except 173 AB and some Air Force assets) From the sea (except 26th MEU)
A new concept of lift A new concept of vertical maneuver A new land warrior system A new joint demand centered logistics system A new demand centered intelligence system A new way of training and preparing
Training Transformation
We must transform not only the capabilities at our disposal, but also the way we think, the way we train, the way we exersise and the way we fight.
Donald H. Rumsfeld Secretary of Defense Transformation Planning Guidance April 2003
Training Must Deliver Leaders

Who understand Network Centric Warfare Who learn how to fight, persevere, and succeed in the new global context Who are adaptive in applying their abilities Who push the envelope toward the Information Age and Globalization III
Information Age
Short Cycle Time New Competencies Adaptive Planning Integrated Joint Interdependent
Globalization III
Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Customer Base Emerging Security=All Else+Defense
Transformation Strategy
Transformed Culture Through Innovative Leadership Transformed Processes

Risk Mitigation through Future Operating Concepts Anticipatory and Adaptable to Counter New Threats
Transformed Capabilities Through Force Transformation

Strengthening Joint Operations Exploiting US intelligence advantages Experimenting in support of new warfighting concepts War gaming Modeling and Simulation Joint National Training Capability Operational Lessons Learned
The Roadmap
Joint National Training Capability

Preparing forces collectively:
Short Cycle Time Integrated Joint and Interdependent
Joint Knowledge Development and Distribution Capability

Preparing forces individually:
Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Competencies
Joint Assessment and Enabling Capability

Anticipating, Evaluating and Guiding Development:
Adaptive Planning New Customers Feedback
The Path Not Taken

yet
Information-Based Soldier
Fully integrated Infantry Fighting System

Combines Sensors, Computers, Lasers, Geo Location and Radio with Soldier Mission Equipment Digitized reporting; brings dismounted soldier into digital battlefield/situational awareness Video capture and transmission
What do we want from Training Technology?

What do we want?
Better performance at lower cost Transparency Every event is a training event Creative opportunities-Support discovery and invention Feedback
What dont we want?

A more robust training stovepipe
Working definition
Elements of Transformation
Continuing process Creating/anticipating the future Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations, and technology New competitive areas/competencies;revalued attributes Fundamental shifts in underlying principles New sources of power Broadened capabilities base
New Strategic Context Broadened Threat Context
Technological Threats Facilitated by Falling Barriers to Competition
Vision: Broad and sustained competitive advantage
Down at the grange theyre teachin a new way of plowin Ya goin? Nope! I already dont plow as good as I know how ...

Arthur KCebrowskiv 2

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Transforming Defense

Office of Force Transformation

The Path Not Taken

What do these have in common?

Understanding of Network Relationships is Critical

We need to understand. We need to prepare. We need to deliver. The question is how?

New Rules New Behaviors New Competencies New Relationships

Proliferation of WMD & military technology

New Rules New Institutions New Security Environment Disconnectedness Danger

The Emerging American Military:

System State Individual

International SEI w/Bugs Terrorists

Top Level Issues

Volunteer (Recruited) Force Citizen Soldier

Policy = Power x Moral Principle

Challenge for USG Intelligence (and Enemy)

The Strategic Corporal

Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector

Information Age Primary Axis of IT Consulting Company Competencies

Where Successful Companies Are Operating

Globalization III Primary Axis of Strategy Consulting Company Competencies

Where Many Companies Are Operating

Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector

Primary Axis of Engineering School Competencies

Where Some Business Schools Are Operating

Where Most Business Schools Were Operating

Primary Axis of Business School Competencies

Education and Transformation

Where DoD Needs to Operate What Education needs to Facilitate

Current Focus of PME

Training and Transformation

Event Focused Punitive

Policy = Power x Moral Principle

Operation Iraqi Freedom

Grand Strategies in Tension

Network-Centric Warfare Implementation

The Power of Transformation

The Power of Transformation

NCW implementation The power of shared awareness

A new Airpower Land power intersection

Networking + ISR = Speed Information running ahead of the physics

Movement toward tactical level jointness / interoperability

What We Also Saw

What We Also Saw

Deter Forward 2d derivative force Sustaining force Constabulary/Nation-building force

and what we didnt see

Training Must Deliver Leaders

Transformed Culture Through Innovative Leadership Transformed Processes

Transformed Capabilities Through Force Transformation

Joint National Training Capability

Joint Knowledge Development and Distribution Capability

Joint Assessment and Enabling Capability

The Path Not Taken

Fully integrated Infantry Fighting System

What do we want from Training Technology?

What dont we want?

Technological Threats Facilitated by Falling Barriers to Competition

Vision: Broad and sustained competitive advantage

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