Dr.

David Schoellhamer
Visiting Fulbright Professor, National Institute of Technology Karnataka Research Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Sacramento, California USA Adjunct Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis

Question: Over the coming century of global climate change, how might the local environment change?
Motivation: Adapt to changes in climatology, hydrology, coastal processes, fisheries, and agriculture Modeling challenges: Time and space domains, downscaling, emissions scenarios, multidisciplinary, indicators

Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

Developed 2030s scenario for 4 sensitive regions: Himalayas, North-eastern Region, Western Ghats, and Coastal Region.

Impact on key climate-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, water, natural ecosystems and biodiversity, and human health
18 institutions and 43 scientists November 2010 report

Jim Cloern

About the Authors

estuarine ecology watershed hydrology

fish biology

hydroclimatology

oceanography

sediment dynamics data analysis environmental engineering

numerical modeling environmental engineering

San Francisco Bay and Watershed

Diversion of drinking water for 25M (250 lakh) people Agricultural irrigation $400B/yr ($40000 crore) economic activity Drains 40% of California Habitat for fish and birds Urbanized estuary

Approach
Global Circulation Models

Downscaled to Region

Watershed Model

Sea Level Golden Gate

Delta Models

Two Scenarios
B1 slowing emissions; moderate warming with PCM A2 accelerating emissions; fast warming with GFDL

B1
historical

PCM = National Center for Atmospheric Research's Parallel Climate Model 1 GFDL = NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab's GFDL CM2.1 model

Results annual mean values

Faster Slower + 4 C + 1 C

- 250 mm no change

+ 110 cm + 89 cm

these are not predictions!

Faster

Slower - 7 km3 (~ 15%) no change

- 10% - 4%

Faster

Slower + 2.5 C + 0.8 C

+ 2.9 C + 1.0 C

+4 +3

- 25 mg/L - 26 mg/L

Results extreme values per decade

Faster

Slower

goldengatebridge.org

www.water.ca.gov/

FUTURE VISIONS Trends of increasing sea level, air and water temperature, salinity intrusion Trends of decreasing snowmelt and sediment supply Uncertainty about changes in precipitation and runoff (annual variability will remain high) Todays extremes will become tomorrows norm Magnitude of change depends on rate of global warming

ADAPTATION PLANNING

Environmental conditions beyond the range of historical observations

Multi-year droughts and extreme floods

Anticipate surprises
Its more than climate change Project planning geared to future climates, not todays Need for adaptation will depend on rate of climate change

Thank you
Dr. Shrihari National Institute of Technology Karnataka Institution of Engineers, Mangalore Local Centre, and Institute of Valuers, Mangalore Branch Institution of Engineers, Environmental Engineering Division