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=
+
=
n
t
t
t
k
A
NPV
0
1
Where k is the expected rate of return
A sub t is the cash flow in the period t
Choose the programs whose NPV is
highest consistent with strategy, risk,
resource, etc.
Calculation of Payback Period
( )
0
1
0
=
(
=
n
t
t
t
r
A
Where r = discount rate
is the cash flow in period t
t
A
t
A
t
A
Preparing an economic
feasibility study
Compare product Returns on Investment
example: Sample business plan pro forma
Dollars
Time
(Years)
To calculate NPV, first assume a cash flow
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time (Years)
Cash
Flow
Calculation of NPV and Payback Period of an
investment
Year Cash Discounted Cash Flow Discount rate
1 -1000 (909) $ (909) $ 10%
2 -2000 (1,653) $ (2,562) $
3 -3000 (2,254) $ (4,816) $
4 -1000 (683) $ (5,499) $
5 0 - $ (5,499) $
6 1000 564 $ (4,934) $
7 2000 1,026 $ (3,908) $
8 6000 2,799 $ (1,109) $
9 10000 4,241 $ 3,132 $
10 5000 1,928 $ 5,060 $
11 2000 701 $ 5,761 $
12 2000 637 $ 6,398 $
Net Present Value= 6,398 $
Payback 9 years
Assume all cash is spent at end of perid
- $
Calculation of NPV and Payback Period of an
investment
Year Cash Discounted Cash Flow Discount rate
1 -1000 (769) $ (769) $ 30%
2 -2000 (1,183) $ (1,953) $
3 -3000 (1,365) $ (3,318) $
4 -1000 (350) $ (3,668) $
5 0 - $ (3,668) $
6 1000 207 $ (3,461) $
7 2000 319 $ (3,142) $
8 6000 736 $ (2,407) $
9 10000 943 $ (1,464) $
10 5000 363 $ (1,101) $
11 2000 112 $ (990) $
12 2000 86 $ (904) $
Net Present Value= (904) $
Payback never breaks even
Assume all cash is spent at end of period
Calculation of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for
a project
Calculate a discount rate (k) that reduces
the NPV of a project to zero
( )
=
+
= =
n
t
t
t
k
A
NPV
0
1
0
Calculation of Internal Rate of Return IRR) of an
investment
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
NPV($) Vs
Discount Rate
(%)
IRR=24.3%
Assess Financial Viability
Break Even Point
How long before the projects returns
match the amount invested
The longer it takes to break even, the
higher the projects risk.
Value analysis (VA)
Can we do without it?
Does it do more than is required?
Does it cost more than it is worth?
Can something else do a better job?
Can it be made by
a less costly method?
with less costly tooling?
with less costly material?
Can it be made cheaper, better, or faster by
someone else?
Sensitivity Analysis
Reduce (Increase) Price
Change Product Development Time
Consider competitive response
Some thoughts on how to increase
profits
P=SP-C
1. Increase Selling Price
Increase Customer Value
Put extra features in product which require little marginal cost
Provide extra service
Target less competitive segment of the market
Get to market before competition
Price at the maximum the customer is willing to pay
Price models should reflect customer value- not cost
(except in government contracts if you wish to avoid jail
Note in English gardening magazine: Even though seed sales are
at an all time high, the price is not expected to come down
Why?
Some thoughts on how to increase
profits
P=SP-C
2. Decrease Selling Price
Do it right the first time
Dont commit to detailed design until you have customers specs firm
then dont change
Build a manufacturable product. Bring manufacturing in early
Dont overload with features that the customer doesnt want that are
costly to develop
Manage tightly to schedule with appropriate risk and risk reduction
plans
Use rigid phase exit criteria
All of these consistent with Fast C/T
Some thoughts on how to increase profits
P=SP-C
3. Decrease Product Development (NRE) and
Manufacturing (RE) costs
Effect on product price in being first to
market?
Effect on total revenue of turning out
products faster?
Effect on Cost?
Some thoughts on how to increase
profits
P=SP-C
4. Decrease Cycle Time for product Development
Assume the decision is made to invest in
developing new products
How do you make the decision on which
new product to invest in?
What are the criteria for this decision-
making process?
How do we maximize profit?
in the long range
in the short range
Portfolio Analysis
Reward
(NPV)
Risk
Game Changers
Kill
Bread and Butter
Pearls
D
C
B
A
Reward
(NPV)
Risk
Kill
Game
Changers
Bread and Butter
Pearls
A Portfolio of 6 programs
G
F
Note: area = program cost
How do you allocate?
Not by NPV and Payback Period alone
But. . .
Portfolio Balance (long/short)
Strategically Important vs Tactically Important
Product Families and Platforms
Future Sales Model
Available Resource
People and Dollars
Customers demands
Data for Rank ordered List
Project Name IRR NPV Strategic
Importance
Probability of
Technical Success
Alpha 20% 10.0 5 80%
Beta 15% 2.0 2 70%
Gamma 10% 5.0 3 90%
Delta 17% 12.0 2 65%
Epsilon 12% 20.0 4 90%
Omega 22% 6.0 1 85%
Rank Ordered by discounting
returns by probability of success
Project Name IRR NPV Strategic
Importance
Ranking Score
Alpha 16.0 (2) 8.0 (2) 5 (1) 1.67 (1)
Epsilon 10.8 (4) 18.0 (1) 4 (2) 2.33 (2)
Delta 11 (3) 7.8 (3) 2 (4) 3.33 (3)
Omega 18.7 (1) 5.1 (4) 1 (6) 3.67 (4)
Gamma 9.0 (6) 4.5 (5) 3 (3) 4.67 (5)
Beta 10.5 (5) 1.4 (6) 2 (4) 5.0 (6)
Whatever the methodology, the
choices you make have an Opportunity
Cost
Program Development Resource is always
finite
Most companies with good engineering and
marketing resource are in a target rich
environment
How expensive is it to develop the
Technology vs other choices?
Consider, allocation is a zero sum game.
An investment that ties up resource- even a
good investment (High NPV) can crowd out
a better (sometimes much better) investment
Having made your choice, you now have to
build Inventory in a Design Factory
Each has a spending (investment) profile
Each has no revenue, no profits- just a burn
rate
Each has a people (skills) resource requirement
(engineering, marketing, manufacturing, etc.)
Analogy to WIP (partly finished products in a
factory)
Requires balancing
Incorporate financial thinking into your Term
Project
What is the cost to develop Technology?
Consider price the market will pay to solve
problem the Technology addresses
Consider resources available to invest in R&D
Government
Large existing R&D functions
Strart-up Venture Capital
Consider strategic fit of Technology with
companies competence
Return on Investment
Return on Investment (RoI)
RoI is the simplest, and one of the most frequently used, measures of
financial feasibility. It delivers a percentage figure that can be
compared against prevailing interest rates, in order to assess whether
the proposed investment is financially worthwhile.
The basic formula is:
RoI = (Net Benefit / Investment) x 100
Where Net Benefit = the sum of tangible benefits Total costs,
including annual running and development costs.
Standards vary from organisation to organisation as to what period the
costs and benefits are measured. A common standard is to use the
sums of annual costs and benefits over a four-year period; another is to
use the costs and benefits over the expected life of the solution.
Standards also vary as to what RoI rate is acceptable, with values such
as twice bank base rate, or base rate plus 5% being fairly typical.
Payback Period
Payback Period
Another common measure is that of Payback Period. This is a measure
of when sufficient benefits will have accrued to cover both the initial
investment costs and the on-going running costs of the solution.
For example a project with an investment cost of 120,000, annual
running costs of 20,000, and annual benefits of 50,000 will pay back
the investment in 4 years.
In assessing overall cost benefit, measures such as RoI and Payback
Period will frequently be used in combination, and viewed differently by
different organisations.
For example some might view a RoI of 20% with a pack back of 2 years
as preferable to a RoI of 30% with a Payback Period of 4 years,
depending on their strategic aims and current financial position.
For a full description of these methods the reader is referred to a text such as Robson (1997).
1. Systems Development Costs (one-time; representative only)
Personnel:
2 Systems Analysts (450 hours/each @ $45/hour) $40,500
5 Software Developers (275 hours/each @ $36/hour) 49,500
1 Data Communications Specialist (60 hours @ $40/hour) 2,400
1 Database Administrator (30 hours @ $42/hour) 1,260
2 Technical Writers (120 hours/each @ $25/hour) 6,000
1 Secretary (160 hours @ $15/hour) 2,400
2 Data Entry clerks during conversion (40 hrs/ea @ $12/hr) 960
Training:
3 day in-house course for developers 7,000
User 3 day in-house course for 30 users 10,000
Supplies:
Duplication 500
Disks, tapes, paper, etc. 650
Purchased Hardware & Software:
Windows for 20 workstations 1,000
Memory upgrades in 20 workstations 8,000
Mouse for 20 workstations 2,500
Network Software 15,000
Office Productivity Software for 20 workstations 20,000
TOTAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT COSTS: $161,670
2. Annual Operating Costs (on-going each year)
Personnel:
Maintenance Programmer/Analyst (250 hrs/year @ $42/hr) $10,500
Network Supervisor (300 hrs/year @ $50/hr) 15,000
Purchased Hardware & Software Upgrades:
Hardware 5,000
Software 6,000
Supplies and Miscellaneous items 3,500
TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS: 40,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL COST TO DEVELOP AND OPERATE THE SYSTEM: $201,670
==========
Fewer processing errors
Increased throughput
Increased response time
Elimination of job steps
Reduced expenses
Increased sales
Faster turnaround
Better credit
Reduced credit losses
Reduction of accounts receivables
TANGIBLE BENEFITS
Equate these
to Dollars ($)
Improved customer goodwill
Improved employee morale
Improved employee job satisfaction
Better service to the community
Better decision making
INTANGIBLE BENEFITS
Equate these
to Dollars ($)
BREAK EVEN (PAYBACK) ANALYSIS
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Development Costs (161,670) - - - - -
Operational Costs - (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)
Tangible Benefits - 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000
Intangible Benefits - 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Benefit (Cost) (161,670) 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Cum Benefit (Cost) (161,670) (131,670) (91,670) (41,670) 18,330 88,330
* This simple example does not consider the Time-Value of Money
Break Even (Payback) Analysis Example*
Cum Benefit (Cost)
(161,670)
(131,670)
(91,670)
(41,670)
18,330
88,330
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cum Benefit
(Cost)
Assumptions/Calculations:
The ideal pump produces 0.5HP as determined by our calculations
Calculations were based on an ideal impeller pump
Average Annual Costs are constant
Pump Maintenance Technicians cost $18 per hour
Interest rate is 4%
Centrifugal Pump maintenance is a percentage of the initial cost
plus the cost of a Maintenance Technician
Pump Replacement
Axial Pump
Model: 607-3
Initial Cost: $4400
Maintenance /
year: 6 to 10 hrs labor
Pump
Maintenance
Technician: $18 per hr
Total Yearly
Cost: $100
Centrifugal Pump
Model: 8000 Series
Horizontal Centrifugal
Self-Priming Pump
Initial Cost: $2464
Maintenance /
year: $400
Diaphragm Pump
Model: LLC-1010
Initial Cost: $2399
Maintenance /
(9/12) Year $284 Repair Kit
$100 Technician
Total
Maint/Year $512
Piston Plunger Pump
Model: 150 Frame
Reciprocating Process Pump --
152R060
Initial Cost: $61500
Maintenance
/ year: $108 Oil / year
$270 Oil / case
$1500 Seal Kit
$180 Technician
Total Annual
Costs: $1790
Our Decision
Carry Manufacturings Axial Flow Pump
(Model 607-3) is the most cost effective
model for our application.
This holds true even when:
APR = 6%
APR = 2%
Economic Analysis
Centrifugal Axial Piston Plunger Diaphragm
Initial Cost 2464 4400 61500 2399
Yearly Costs 400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
400 100 1790 512
Total NPW (4%) $5,584.54 $5,180.86 $75,461.06 $6,393.02
Organizational Feasibility
If we build it, will they come?
Strategic alignment
How well do the project goals align with
business objectives?
Stakeholder analysis
Project champion(s)
Organizational management
System users
ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
How do you identify all those who are or may be affected by the project?
Who is the client?
How do you evaluate community impact (cost and/or benefit)?
What effects will the new project pose to the environment?
What is the most appropriate land use? The most efficient use of materials,
of energy?
Goals and success criteria of project
management
The project is on time
The project is run in cost-effective manner
The resources are used efficiently
Project outcome is verified and ready for validation
Customer is satisfied with the project and its
outcome
Project team members are satisfied with the project
and its outcome
Project management - needed knowledge
scope management
time management
cost management
quality management
resource management
integration management
communication management
risk management
subcontracting management
problem management
processes and work methods
leadership skills
Thank you for
your attention !