Development of Transportation Strategies & Plans

Prof Dr. MIMM Mac 2011

TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING:

CONTENT

Rationale of Transportation Planning Types of Planning System Approach Long term planning Land use transportation model Factors affecting transportation planning Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model

CONTENT

Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

REVISION:

Factors for transportation analysis

Traveller / Human Vehicles Time Infrastructure Destinations Conditions (eg. Weather)

REVISION:

Class Discussion

Relate trips generation and travel demands using the input and output theory I-O Theory is a process how traffic is managed. Input is related to trip generation Output is related to trip distribution

REVISION:

I-O CORRELATIONS

INPUT

OUTPUT

REVISION:

Class Discussion

How will traffic volume and speed affects trips generations? Establish a functional correlations. The higher the trip generation will need low traffic volume and higher speed This will enhance the time taken to generate trips by vehicles along the route. However, it discards or disregards the possibility of accidents and bad weather conditions.

CORRELATIONS OF TG AGAINST VS AND TV

TG

VS

TV

f(TG) = f(VS) / f(TV)

Or

f(TG) = f(VS) f(TV)

Rationale of Transportation Planning

Efficient transportation requires continuous planning function to ensure mobility requirements of community supplied at acceptable level Acceptable level = Customer Satisfaction Index Communitys desired mobility is evaluated in terms of:

Rationale of Transportation Planning

Economic Social Environmental costs Available funding capabilities

PLANNING REQUIRES:

What needs to be done? Consideration of alternative approaches How well does the alternatives perform compared to community desires Steps for successful implementation

BEWARE WHEN PLANNING!

Transportation problems are not isolated and independent urban transportation problem is a national transportation problem: interlink system or infrastructure Planning needs examination at various levels: policy and enforcement A transportation plan will affect its own environment when implemented: eg. When changing the nos. of road lanes, does it help in reducing congestion or increasing accidents? Land use has been found to be the prime factor or determinant for trip generation activity: More land, more facilities and routes for accessibility and trip generations.

IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ON TRAFFIC & LAND

CHANGE LAND USE INCREASED TRIP GENERATION

INCREASED LAND VALUE

GREATER TRAFFIC NEEDS

INCREASED ACCESSIBILITY

ADDITIONAL TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

Types of Planning

Short-term (ST) Mid-term (MT) Long-term (LT) ST and MT does not incur big construction activities and high capital LT is a comprehensive and strategic planning process with huge financial expenditures and calculation of economic returns

System Approach

Divided into system analysis (SA) and system engineering (SE) It is a decision-making tool SA is a clear evaluation of all elements that structure or creates the problems and includes the determination of forces & strategies for the achievement of an objective

System Approach

SE includes organising and scheduling complex strategies to solve transportation problems and develop procedures to enhance effectiveness of alternate solutions Team will be interdisciplinary Analysis using scientific methods Work carried-out according to predetermined sequence.

Long term planning

Comprehensive planning for complex problems for sustainable solutions Clearly specifying goals, objectives and criteria Includes financial implications Economic rate of return and years Specifications of construction and maintenance works Alternatives of technologies and costs.

Factors affecting transportation planning

Location Population Economic Activities Politics Social Activities Regulations and Enforcements

Methods and approach to ensure effectiveness & efficiency of planning

Appropriate inventory Appropriate analysis & forecasting Alternatives and contigencies Procedures and SOPs Adequate financial support and facilities Adequate land space and alternative design measures

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Traveler Vs Traffic

Traveler means persons making a trip from one destination to another (can be planned and predicted) Travelers decision: time and location can be determined Traffic means vehicles making a trip from one destination to another with respect to travelers desire (Depends on many variables including travelers decision, vehicular conditions and others)

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems

Travel demand & traffic forecasting are predicted accurately by (a) determining complexity of travelers DM process (b) system equilibration (price and time) Travelers decision: socioeconomics & activity patterns constitute to major DM Mode/destination choice determines the decision to travel Long-term factors for travel DM: Infrastructure Short-term factors for travel DM: Traffic behaviour

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Trip Generation
- Definition of TG? - TG model will predict exactly when a trip is to be made (difficult but possible) - Sequence of Models: (a) TG origin of trips, no. of trips, departure time of trips (b) Mode/destination choice origin of highway trips,
no. of highway trips, departure time of highway trips, destination of highway trips

(c) Highway Route Choice Traffic Flow

Trip Generation model (TGM)

Example: Overview of a sequential approach to traffic estimation (a) Aggregation of DM units: classification of activities eg. individual or group (b) Segmentation of trips by type: Types of trips such as work trips and shopping trips (single or multiple trips) TGM is assumed to be linear i.e. Ti = f(b and z) or vehicle based trips is a function of various socioeconomics and/or distributional characteristics (eg. Commercial or residential)

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Mode and Destination Choice (MDC)

After time is determined, next will determine the mode & destination (a) Methodological Approach: Basic assumption will be traveler using multi-modes on trips (involves utility provided by modes) Total utility = Summation [coefficient estimated from traveler survey data x traveler or mode/destination characteristics) + unspecified portions of the utility of mode/destination (assumed randomly)

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Highway Route Choice (HRC)

HRC results in traffic flow (veh/hr) on specific highway routes Travelers RC decision = f(route travel times) Assumption: Travel time increases with flow Two theories for HRC: (a) User equilibrium: Assumptions (i)Take the shortest time (ii) Choose the assumed lower travel time (b) System optimization: Visualise a single route choice
strategy for lowest possible no. of total vehicle hrs of travel for some specified O-D traffic flow. (Known also as SORC System optimal route choice)

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Traffic forecasting practice

The geographic region studied is segmented into nearly homogenous areas based on similarities in land use, socioeconomics, conditions, etc. They are later known as TAZs (Traffic Analysis Zones) used to determine O-D trips Choice of TAZs nos. is a trade-off of accuracy and ease of implementation (Small TAZs give more details and large TAZs give less data?) Highway segments include using nodes Highway networks represent actual street network A very large & detailed highway network will provide vey detailed forecasts BUT, requires large amount of data.
(Preferably smaller network for simplicity and easy computation works)

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment

TRIP GENERATION MODE CHOICE

ROUTE CHOICE

DESTINATION CHOICE

CONTENT

Traveler Vs Traffic Travel demand and Traffic forecasting problems Trip generation model Mode and Destination Choice (MDC) Highway Route Choice (HRC) Traffic forecasting practice Traditional 4-step process: Traffic Assignment Take home assignment

TAKE HOME ASSIGNMENT

Based on EXAMPLE 8.1, solve the problem given for different types or categories from the 205 retail employees and 700 households surveyed. (Detailed data is given separately). Please read the appropriate assumptions. Submit after Hari Raya Aidil Fitri vacation 2010.

THANK YOU