CRP II

Probability
* Objective of the lesson
At the end of the lesson the student should be able to :
(a) recognize the algebraic notation used in statistics
to differentiate between parameters and statistics;
(b) define a probability and probability distribution
for both discrete and continuous variables.
(c) explain and illustrate the operation of the additive
and multiplicative laws (complements and
conditional) of probability and their
elementary uses in medicine

One of the basic problems to which the methods of statistics
are applied in practice arises when trying to deduce something
about population from the evidence provided by a sample of
observations taken from that population.

For example, if we wished to know something about the mean
value of some measurement in population we might take a
sample of n observations and calculate the sample mean
x = x/n. The true mean of all the observations in the
population is called a population parameter,
Whereas the value obtained from the sample x bar is called
the sample estimate or statistic.
The notation of the population parameters are used
Greek letters, and for the sample estimated are used
Roman letters.
Examples are :
Population parameter Sample estimate (statistic)
---------------------------- ----------------------------------
-Population mean (mu) - x (x bar) occasionally m
-Population standard
deviation o (sigma) - s
-Population proportion
t (pi) - p
-Population correlation
coefficient (rho) - r
-Etc -etc


Probability
Fundamentals definitions :

Experiment any planned process of data collection
Event any collection of results or outcomes from some
procedure. Events are usually denoted by symbols
like E, F, or A.
Simple event any outcome or event that cannot be
broken down into simpler components
Sample space all possible simple events, and is denoted
by the symbol O




Example :
Experiment : Four patients are given drug for 2 weeks
period. Outcome for each patient
is examined.
Outcome : One of the outcome is R,R,R,N
(R=recovered; N=not recovered).
Sample space :
S = (RRRR,RRRN,RRNR,RNRR,, NNNN)
= 2
4
= 16 element
Event : A = all patients are recovered = (RRRR)
B = more than half patients are
recovered (RRRR,RRRN,RRNR,
RNRR,NRRR).


Example :
In 1985, there were 3,760,561 live births in the United States.
of those live births, 7,521 infants died of sudden infant death
syndrome in the first year of life. What is the probability of
dying of sudden infant death syndrome in the first year
of life ?
In this example, the event is dying of sudden infant death
syndrome in the first year of life and the observations are live
births. Thus, the probability of infant dying of sudden infant
death is equal to :

7,521 / 3,760,561 = 0.002
That probability can be interpreted to mean that, if we
considered 10,000 live births, we would except to observe 20
cases of sudden infant death syndrome.
Example :
On the examination, a typical multiple choice
question has 5 possible answers. If you make
a random guess on one such question, what
is the probability that your response is wrong ?

There are 5 possible outcomes or answers, and
there are 4 ways to answer incorrectly.
Random guessing implies that the outcomes in
the sample space are equally likely, so we apply
the classical approach (Rule 2) to get :

P (wrong answer) = 4 / 5 = 0.8
Example :
What is the probability that an infant born in the
United Stated in 1985 would not die due to sudden
infant death during the first year of life ?

Not dying from sudden infant death is the
complement of dying from sudden infant death.
Therefore, the probability of that complement is :

P(complement of sudden infant death)
= 1 P (sudden infant death)
= 1 0.002 = 0.998.
The union of two events A and B is defined as the set of sample
outcomes that belong to A or B or to both A and B

The intersection of two events A and B is defined as the set of
sample outcomes belonging to both A and B


Addition Rule :For any two events A and B,

P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A B).

If A and B are mutually exclusive (if the occurrence of one
precludes the occurrence of the others : for example a person
cannot have both blood type O and blood type A), then
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B).

Conditional Probability and Multiplication Rule :
For any two events A and B, then, the conditional probability
That B occurs, knowing that A has occurred, is defined by

P(B/A) = P (A B) / P (A) (P(A) = 0.)

Multiplication Rule :
For any two events A and B, the following relationship holds :
P (A B) = P (B/A) x P (A)

Two events A and B are independent events, then :

P (A B) = P (A).P(B)

Example: A family has two children. What is probability that
first child is male and the second child is female ?

P (M F) = (1/2).(1/2) = 1/4.
Problems :

1. A family has four children, and assume that male and
female children are equally probable and successive
births are independent. Let M stand for male and F for
female.
(a) List all elements in the sample space.
(b) Let A be the event that both sexes appear. Find P(A).
(c) Let B be the event that there is at most one girl.
Find P(B).
2. From 800 families with 4 children, how many families
are expected have :

(a) 2 males dan 2 females
(b) at least 1 male
(c) all females
(d) more than 2 females

CRP II

Probability Distributions
==================================================

Review of Probability Formulas
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(A B) P(A B)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General Theorem = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) = P(A) x P(B/A)

Special Case = P(A) + P(B) = P(A) x P(B)
if A and B are mutually if A and B are
exclusive; i.e., independent; i.e.
if P(AB) = 0 if P(B/A) = P(B)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Example :
A psychiatric researcher wished to evaluate a diagnostic instrument
for possible use as screening tool for major psychotic illness.
This test instrument contained 20 questions regarding individual
psychiatric symptoms. A positive test result is one in which a score
of 16 or greater is attained, that is, if a person reports having at least
16 of the 20 symptoms.
A sample of 388 psychotic patients and independent sample of 690
nonpsychotic patients were administered the test instrument with
The following results :
Diagnosis
Psychosis (D) Not Psychotis (ND)
-------------------------------------
Positive (T) 374 10 384
Test
Negative (NT) 14 680 694
------------------------------------- -----
Total 388 690 1078

Find the probability :
a. P (Test positive/Psychosis) c. P (Psychosis/test positive)
b. P ( (Test negative/Not Psychosis) d. P (Not psychosis/test negative)

Solution :
a. P (test positive/Psychosis) = test sensitivity = 374/388 = 0.964
b. P (test negative/not psychosis) = test specificity
= 680/690 = 0.986
c. P (Psychosis/test positive) = the predictive value positive
P(D/T) = P (DT) / P(T)
= 374/384 = 0.974;
is the probability that a person who has a positive test result has the
disease.
d. P (Not Psychosis/test negative) = the predictive value negative
P(ND/NT) = P (NDNT) / P(NT)
= 680/694 =0.980;
is the probability that a person who has a negative test result does
not have the disease.