Project Scheduling PERT / CPM

To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

CPM/PERT
Critical Path Method (CPM)
DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956) Deterministic task times Activity-on-node network construction

Project Eval. & Review Technique (PERT)

US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton Multiple task time estimates Activity-on-arrow network construction

Questions Addressed
1. When will the project be completed? 2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project? 3. Which are the noncritical activities? 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed by a specific date? 5. Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or

behind schedule?
6. Is the project over or under the budgeted amount?

Questions - continued
7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? 8. If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the best way to accomplish this at least cost?

The Project Network

Network consists of branches & nodes

Node

Branch

Project Planning
Statement of work
written description of goals, work & time frame of project

Activities require labor, resources & time Precedence relationship shows sequential relationship of project activities

Simplified Project Network

Construct forms
1 2

Pour concrete
3

Project Control
All activities identified and included Completed in proper sequence Resource needs identified Schedule adjusted Maintain schedule and budget Complete on time

Work Breakdown Structure

Project broken down into modules Hierarchical organization of work to be done on a project Modules subdivided into subcomponents, activities, and tasks Identifies individual tasks, workloads, and resource requirements

Six Steps Common to PERT and CPM

1. Define the project and all significant activities/tasks. 2. Develop relationships among the activities. Identify precedence relationships. 3. Draw the network. 4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity. 5. Compute the longest time path (critical path) through the network.

6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project.

General Foundry PERT

Activity A B C D E F G H Description Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build high-temperature burner Install control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test Immediate Predecessors

A B
C C D,E F,G

Gantt Chart for General Foundry

Activity A B C D E F G H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

A Gantt Chart
Popular tool for project scheduling Graph with bar for representing the time for each task Provides visual display of project schedule Also shows slack for activities
Amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying project

A Gantt Chart
0
Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work

Month 4

10

1 Figure 6.2

3 Month

Network Construction
In AON, nodes represent activities & arrows show precedence relationships In AOA, arrows represent activities & nodes are events for points in time An event is the completion or beginning of an activity A dummy shows precedence for two activities with same start & end nodes

Project Network for a House

Project Network for a House

Lay foundation 2

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

4
Select paint 1

Design house and obtain financing

Order and receive materials

3 1

6
Select carpet

Concurrent Activities

Concurrent Activities

Lay foundation

3
Lay foundation Dummy 2 1 Order material (b) Correct precedence relationship 0

3 2

Order material

(a) Incorrect precedence relationship

Critical Path
A path is a sequence of connected activities running from start to end node in network The critical path is the path with the longest duration in the network Project cannot be completed in less than the time of the critical path

The Critical Path

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

A: 1-2-3-4-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months C: 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months D: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months

The Critical Path

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

A: 1-2-3-4-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months C: 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months D: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months

The Critical Path

Activity Start Times
3

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

Start at 5 months 2 0 1

Finish at 9 months 1

4
1

3 1

Start at 3 months

Start at 8 months

Early Times

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

ES - earliest time activity can start Forward pass starts at beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine ES times EF = ES + activity time 2003
ESij = maximum (EFi) EFij = ESij - tij ES12 = 0 EF12 = ES12 - t12 = 0 + 3 = 3 months

Computing Early Times

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

ES23 = max EF2 = 3 months ES46 = max EF4 = max 5,4 = 5 months EF46 = ES46 - t46 = 5 + 3 = 8 months EF67 = 9 months, the project duration

Computing Early Times

Early Start and Finish Times
(ES = 3, EF = 5) 2 0 1 3 (ES = 0, EF = 3)

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

3
(ES = 5, EF = 5) (ES = 5, EF = 8) 1 (ES = 8, EF = 9) (ES = 6, EF = 7)

4
1

(ES = 3, EF = 4) (ES = 5, EF = 6)

3 1

Late Times
LS - latest time activity can start & not delay project Backward pass starts at end of CPM/PERT network to determine LS times LF = LS + activity time
LSij = LFij - tij LFij = minimum (LSj)

Computing Late Times

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

LF67 = 9 months LS67 = LF67 - t67 = 9 - 1 = 8 months LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months LS56 = LF56 - t56 = 8 - 1 = 7 months LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5, 6) = 5 months LS24 = LF24 - t24 = 5 - 1 = 4 months

Computing Late Times

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

LF67 = 9 months LS67 = LF67 - t67 = 9 - 1 = 8 months LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months LS56 = LF56 - t56 = 8 - 1 = 7 months LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5, 6) = 5 months LS24 = LF24 - t24 = 5 - 1 = 4 months

Activity Slack
Activities on critical path have ES = LS & EF = LF Activities not on critical path have slack
Sij = LSij - ESij Sij = LFij - EFij S24 = LS24 - ES24 = 4 - 3 = 1 month

Activity Slack Data

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

Activity Slack Data

Activity
*1-2 *2-3 2-4 *3-4 4-5 *4-6 5-6 *6-7 * Critical path

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

LS
0 3 4 5 6 5 7 8

ES
0 3 3 5 5 5 6 8

LF
3 5 5 5 7 8 8 9

EF
3 5 4 5 6 8 7 9

Slacks
0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

Activity Slack Data

Activity Slack Activity *1-2 S=0 *2-3 2-4 3 *3-4 2 S=0 4-5 *4-6 5-6 *6-7 * Critical path

Lay foundation 2 3

3
0 1

Dummy Build house Finish work

1
Design house and obtain financing

2
Order and receive materials

4
Select paint 1

3 1

6
Select carpet

LS
0 3 3 2 4 1 5 S=1 6 5 7 8

ES

LF

EF
3 5 4 5 6 6 8 S=1 7 9

Slacks
0 0 1 1 0 S=0 1 0 1 0

0 S=0 3 3 5 4 5 5 S=1 6 8

3 5 5 S=0 5 3 7 1 1 8 8 5 9

Probabilistic Time Estimates

Reflect uncertainty of activity times Beta distribution is used in PERT

Probabilistic Time Estimates

Reflect uncertainty of activity times Beta distribution is used in PERT
a + 4m + b t= 6

Mean (expected time): Variance: where

b-a = 6

a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate

Example Beta Distributions

Example Beta Distributions

P(time) P(time)

t
Time

a
Time

P(time)

m=t
Time

Southern Textile Company

Southern Textile Company

d

2
Equipment installation

Equipment testing and modification

6
l
Final debugging

Dummy

System development

f
Manual Testing

i
System Training

m
System changeover

Position recruiting

Job training

g h

System Testing

Dummy

4
Orientation

Activity Estimates

Activity Estimates
TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) ACTIVITY

MEAN TIME

VARIANCE

a 6 3 1 0 2 2 3 2 3 2 0 1 1

m 8 6 3 0 4 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 10

b 10 9 5 0 12 4 5 2 11 6 0 7 13

t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9

2 0.44 1.00 0.44 0.00 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 0.00 1.00 4.00

1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9

Early and Late Times

Early and Late Times

For Activity 1-2 a = 6, m = 8, b = 10
6 + 4(8) + 10 a + 4m + b t= = = 8 weeks 6 6

2=

2 4 10 - 6 b-a = = 9 week 6 6

Early and Late Times

ACTIVITY

t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9

0.44 1.00 0.44 0.00 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 0.00 1.00 4.00

ES

EF

LS

LF

1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9

0 0 0 8 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 13 16

8 6 3 8 13 9 7 5 16 13 13 17 25

1 0 2 9 16 6 5 14 9 12 16 21 16

9 6 5 9 21 9 9 16 16 16 16 25 25

1 0 2 1 8 0 2 11 0 3 3 8 0

Southern Textile Company

ES = 8, EF = 13 LS = 16, LF = 21

2
ES = 0, EF = 8 LS = 1, LF = 9

5
ES = 8, EF = 8 LS = 9, LF = 9

6
ES = 13, EF = 17 LS = 21, LF = 25

8
ES = 0, EF = 6 LS = 0, LF = 6

0
ES = 6, EF = 9 LS = 6, LF = 9 ES = 9, EF = 16 LS = 9, LF = 16

7
ES = 16, EF = 25 LS = 21, LF = 25

ES = 3, EF = 7 LS = 5, LF = 9 ES = 0, EF = 3 LS = 2, LF = 5

4
ES = 9, EF = 13 LS = 12, LF = 16

0
ES = 13, EF = 13 LS = 16, LF = 16

4
ES = 3, EF = 5 LS = 14, LF = 16

Southern Textile Company

ES = 8, EF = 13 LS = 16, LF = 21

2
ES = 0, EF = 8 LS = 1, LF = 9

5
ES = 8, EF = 8 LS = 9, LF = 9

6
ES = 13, EF = 17 LS = 21, LF = 25

8
ES = 0, EF = 6 LS = 0, LF = 6

0
ES = 6, EF =9 ES = 9, EF = 16 Total project variance LS = 6, LF = 9 LS = 9, LF = 16

=
2
3

ES = 3, EF = 7 LS = 5, LF = 9 ES = 0, EF = 3 LS = 2, LF = 5

2 + 13

2 + 35

2 + 57

2 79

7
ES = 16, EF = 25 LS = 21, LF = 25

4 0 = 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00

= 6.89 weeks
2

ES = 9, EF = 13 LS = 12, LF = 16

ES = 13, EF = 13 LS = 16, LF = 16

4
ES = 3, EF = 5 LS = 14, LF = 16

Probabilistic Network Analysis

Determine probability that project is completed within specified time Z= where x-

= tp = project mean time = project standard deviation

x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean

Normal Distribution Of Project Time

Normal Distribution Of Project Time

Probability

= tp

Time

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x 30 weeks)

= 25 x = 30

Time (weeks)

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x 30 weeks)

= 6.89 weeks
2

Z=
=

x-

6.89

= 2.62 weeks
= 25 x = 30
Time (weeks)

30 - 25 2.62

= 1.91

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x 30 weeks)

= 6.89 weeks
2

Z=
=

x-

6.89

= 2.62 weeks
= 25 x = 30
Time (weeks)

30 - 25 2.62

= 1.91
From Table A.1, a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a probability of 0.4719. Thus P(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks?
P(x 22 weeks)

0.3729

x = 22 = 25

Time (weeks)

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks?
P(x 22 weeks)

= 6.89 weeks
2

Z=
=

x-

=
0.3729

6.89

= 2.62 weeks
Time (weeks)

22 - 25 2.62

= -1.14
x = 22 = 25

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks?
P(x 22 weeks)

= 6.89 weeks
2

Z=
=

x-

=
0.3729

6.89

= 2.62 weeks
Time (weeks)

22 - 25 2.62

= -1.14
x = 22 = 25

From Table A.1, a Z score of -1.14 corresponds to a probability of 0.3729. Thus P(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271

AON Conventions

AON Conventions
Activity number Earliest start Earliest finish

1 3

Activity duration

Latest start

Latest finish

House-Building Network with AON

House-Building Network with AON

Lay foundation 2 2 3 3 5 5

Build house
4 3 5 5 8 8 8 8 9 9

Start

1 3

0 0

3 3 5 6 6 7 6 1 5 1 3 1 3 4 4 6 7 7 8

7 1

Design house and obtain financing

Finish work

Select carpet

Select paint

Order and receive materials

Project Crashing
Crashing is reducing project time by expending additional resources Crash time is an amount of time an activity is reduced Crash cost is the cost of reducing the activity time Goal is to reduce project duration at minimum cost

Housebuilding Network
3
8 0

12

4
4

12
4

Housebuilding Network
$7,000 $6,000

3
8 0

12 $5,000
$4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000

4
4

12
4

5
Normal cost

Normal activity

Normal time

| 2

| 4

| 6

| 8

| 10

| 12

| 14

Weeks

Housebuilding Network
$7,000 $6,000

3
8 Crash cost 0

12 $5,000
$4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000

4 Crashed activity 6
4 4

12

5
Normal cost

Normal activity

Crash time

Normal time

| 2

| 4

| 6

| 8

| 10

| 12

| 14

Weeks

Housebuilding Network
$7,000 $6,000

3
8 Crash cost 0

Total crash cost $2,000 = = $400 per week Total crash time 5

12 $5,000
$4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000

4 Crashed activity 6
4

12

4 Slope = crash cost per week

5
Normal cost

Normal activity

Crash time

Normal time

| 2

| 4

| 6

| 8

| 10

| 12

| 14

Weeks

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 2-3 2-4 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7

12 8 4 0 4 12 4 4

7 5 3 0 1 9 1 3

$3,000 2,000 4,000 0 500 50,000 500 15,000 $75,000

$5,000 3,500 7,000 0 1,100 71,000 1,100 22,000 $110,700

5 3 1 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 2-3 2-4 1 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7

12 8 12 4 $400 0 4 12 4 4

7 $500 5 2 3 0 1 9 1 3

$3,000 $5,000 0 2,000 3,500 4 12 4 6 4,000 7,000 $3,000 $7,000 0 0 4 4 $200 500 1,100 $200 50,000 71,000 5 500 1,100 15,000 22,000
8

5 3 4 1 $7,000 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 7 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

$75,000

$110,700

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 2-3 2-4 1 3-4 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7

12 8 12 4 $400 0 4 12 4 4

7 $500 5 2 3 0 1 9 1 3

$3,000 $5,000 0 2,000 3,500 4 12 4 6 4,000 7,000 $3,000 $7,000 0 0 4 4 $200 500 1,100 $200 50,000 71,000 5 500 1,100 15,000 22,000
8

5 3 4 1 $7,000 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 7 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

$75,000

$110,700

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 12 7 $3,000 $5,000 $500 8 0 2-3 8 5 2,000 3,500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3,000 4,000 7,000 $7,000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1,100 $200 4-6 12 = $2,000 9 50,000 71,000 Crash cost 5 5-6 4 1 500 1,100 6-7 4 3 15,000 22,000

5 3 4 1 $7,000 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 7 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

$75,000

$110,700

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 12 7 $3,000 $5,000 $500 8 0 2-3 8 5 2,000 3,500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3,000 4,000 7,000 $7,000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1,100 $200 4-6 12 = $2,000 9 50,000 71,000 Crash cost 5 5-6 4 1 500 1,100 6-7 4 3 15,000 22,000

5 3 4 1 $7,000 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 7 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

$75,000

$110,700

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

NORMAL COST

CRASH COST

TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS)

CRASH COST PER WEEK

1-2 12 7 $3,000 $5,000 $500 7 0 2-3 8 5 2,000 3,500 7 4 12 1 2 4 6 2-4 4 3 $3,000 4,000 7,000 $7,000 3-4 0 0 0 0 4 4 $200 4-5 4 1 500 1,100 $200 4-6 12= $2,000 + 9 $500 = 50,000 71,000 Crash cost $2,500 5 5-6 4 1 500 1,100 6-7 4 3 15,000 22,000

5 3 4 1 $7,000 0 3 3 3 1

$400 500 7 3,000 0 200 7,000 200 7,000

$75,000

$110,700

Time-Cost Relationship
Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases Indirect costs increase as project duration increases Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs

Time-Cost Tradeoff

Cost ($)

Time Project duration

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Minimum cost = optimal project time

Total project cost Indirect cost

Cost ($)

Direct cost

Crashing Project duration

Time