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The 3 steps
Step 1) Animal experiments are scientifically unreliable: animal models lack predictability for humans Step 2) Animal experiments are ethically unjustifiable: too much loss of well-being Step 3) Animal experiments are ethically unjustifiable : too much violations of basic rights
Problem 1: too many false positive and false negative test results Too low predictive value for humans
Effect humans Yes Effect Yes animals No True positive test Falss negative test No False positive test True negative test
Positive predictive value: if there is an observed effect in animals, how big is the probability that the effect will be observed in humans? Often < 50% probability! Delay of development of good products and medicines
Negative predictive value: if there is no observed effect in animals, how big is the probability that the effect will not be observed in humans? Often < 50% probability! Allows dangerous products on the market
2. Theory of evolution: small and large differences between individuals, populations and species
Alternatives are more reliable, so fewer false positive and false negative results Animal studies are wasting scarce resources (money, time)
Conclusion
Step 1: many experiments should stop Step 2: more experiments should be prohibited (not only for cosmetics) Step 3: nearly all animal experiments should be prohibited