India-China

Relations
Strategy and Politics
Contents
• Objective
• Brief history
• Economic progress
• Weakness
• Military (non) parity
• India’s threats and opportunities
• Politics
• Open discussion

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Objective
• Generate curiosity towards China threat
• Strategically dangerous to consider Pakistan and China as separate
• India’s main stream media has failed
• Pakistan centric thinking is myopic
• SOME topics are hand-picked that are currently topical

3
Brief history
• First consolidated China dynasty was Qin Dynasty in 221 BCE
• Han Dynasty was the dynasty that created the Han cultural identity
approx 206-220 BCE
• 1913AD China's dynastic rule ended

• Some Bharatiya Itihaas reference: <sorry not able to recollect the

reference>
• China had started generating inimical influence way back during
Mahabharata
• Samratha Jarasandh the Magadha Emperor had started promoting alien
culture in Bharatvarsha
• It is said, one of the prime objectives of Krishna supporting Pandavas was
to use them as a weapon against Jarasandh

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Brief history
• Republic of China was founded in 1912-1949 which was the elite
controlled government
• Present communist dispensation came to power in 1949 via the so-
called “People’s War”, named the country People’s Republic of China
(PRC)
• They carried out "cultural revolution" , restructured and sanitized
education
• Re-written history
• Massive central control (China has traditionally been a highly
centralized entity in cycles)
• Massive blood-shed
• Millions died in wrong policies (for ex. Farmers were asked to make
Steel, which created unusable low quality steel and resulted in food
grain shortage)
• Many such documented and undocumented experiments on people 
5
Economic progress
• China was following the Stalinist model on forming the PRC
• Centralized and planned economy
• Soviet Union provided military (read Nuclear Bomb) and economic aid
• Soviet-China border dispute in Xinjiang leading to conflict
• Nixon angered by India AND sensing Chinese willingness forged secret
alliance with them – in 1971 (Enemy’s friend is Enemy and Enemy’s
enemy is a Friend – Arthashastra Mandala theory)
• China’s economic reforms (can be compared to Opium for 1300 million
people)
• American assistance for further economic development
• Tacit approval for Nuclear proliferation to Pakistan

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Economic progress
• Heavily export oriented economy
• Global factory, working on massive volumes and razor thin margins
• 1H09 China car sales surpass USA
• 2.3 Trillion in USD reserves
• Massive growth figures

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Economic progress
• Sector Gap in Years w.r.t China (China ahead)
• Services Export 1
• Ext Debt 2
• Mobile Phone 3.5
• Service Import 3.5
• Private Consumption 5
• Auto -Passenger 5
• Domestic Aviation 5
• Foreign Trade dependency 5
• Goods Imports 5.5
• Foreign Reserves 5.5
• Dependency on Exports 6
• Auto Production 7.5
• GDP 9
• Goods Exports 11
• Railway Length 12
• Deposits 13
• Foreign Tourist Arrival 15
• FDI 15
• Industrial Output 15
• Loans 15
• Electricity Output 16
• Installed Elec Capacity 17
• Population 17
• Yarn Production 22
• Steel Production 23

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Weaknesses
• A considerable area of China is not Chinese
• Under the façade of Central Communist authority Han hegemony is
furthered
• Uighur and Tibet regions that form the West and South-West part of
China have been annexed in recent history
• Uighur region was well known in Bharatvarsha for gems and precious
stones
• Tibet historically acted as a buffer state between the Han invaders and
India
• Chinese claims and occupation of these regions don’t have historical
evidence
• There are more than 56 minorities in China
• Ruthless Han cultural domination and transplant in different regions of
the country
• Like all autocratic regimes, absence of avenues for dissent is a major
9 handicap
 Weaknesses

Uighur Mongol

India’s Ladakh
Tibetan

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India China military (non) parity
• China officially accepts defense spending of 30 billion USD compared
to India’s 2009-10 budget of 30 billion USD
• The real defense budget of China is expected to be anything from 70 to
150 billion USD (since massive fudging by the PRC government is
expected)
• With much larger economy 4T vs 1.3T (China vs India), they can spend
much more
• Massive numerical and qualitative superiority w. r. t India in Nuclear
strategic weapons
• Chinese PLAN navy has 630 vessels compared to India’s 250 (although
India holds advantage with more advanced platforms and highly
trained crew)
• Submarine superiority of 47 to India’s 16 is worrisome, since these
could be used against India in an Indo-Pak conflict

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India’s threats and opportunities
• India-China border dispute:
• China’s claims on Indian Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal is an unfinished
dispute (1962 Line of Control)
• China has carried out infrastructure development and force deployment in
these regions
• Heavy combat aircraft deployment coupled with Tibet railway link has
made force mobilization that much more easier for China
• Short and Medium range missile volley to destroy forward IAF bases
• Pakistan-China link up as was threatened in Kargil would make India fight
war on 2 fronts
• Kargil was a bait for India which was wisely recognized by Vajpayee govt.
• Indian Nuclear missiles were forwarded to thwart Chinese designs

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India’s threats and opportunities
• China has massive numerical superiority in ALL services
• Indian response:
• In 1967 Indian Army fought back a numerically superior force and repulsed
them twice (Nathula and Chola Incident)
• Relative peace after getting a bloody nose
• India increasing force deployment along China border
• 400000 vs 220000 troops (China vs India)
• Indian troop deployment backed up with better air support (Tezpur, Assam
converted to host Su-30 MKI strike and superiority aircraft)
• MLRS & Artillery deployment increased
• Deterrent parity in the area
• Slow infrastructure development on Indian side is worrisome

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India’s threats and opportunities

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 India’s threats and opportunities

Choke
point on
China
SLOC

Seychelles Andaman &

Nicobar
India’s
Maldives strategic
Lakshadweep Islands Choke point Naval and Air
on China base
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SLOC
Politics
• India’s reactive policy-making can be seen from the previous slides
• Troop deployment, Troop funding, Equipment funding, EVERYTHING
has been politicized
• Communist parties in the previous dispensation were a show-stopper
for most of India’s actions against China
• At a global level, China has heavily invested and cultivated the
democratic party in USA
• Obama election has been detrimental to India’s national interests
• Clinton clan is vested in China, tough times ahead
• Sharam-Al-Sheikh declaration is already available as an example of US
arm-twisting

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Politics
• Vacuum created by US withdrawal will likely be filled by China
• India’s challenge is to generate growth to MAINTAIN the gap with
CHINA
• Failure to do so has far reaching consequences
• Building a STRONG Nuclear deterrent and a true Blue water Navy to
effect Sea-denial for China
• Nuclear deterrent to obviate the threat of Nuclear strike
• Cultivating east Asian nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, etc (like
they have cultivated Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc)
• To effect any of the points, a HUGE and STRONG economy is a pre-
requisite
• Our performance in agriculture and manufacturing is abysmal
• Goes down to basic Infrastructure problems like Electricity, Roads, Water 
• Everything finally comes down to “roti kapda aur makaan” for the masses, that
is a pre-requisite

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 Open Discussion

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