DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

IN

LAND USE PLANNING

Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA)

Purpose:
To generate disaster risk information relevant to land use planning; To serve as basis for understanding implications of current and future land use management and development; To guide planners and policy makers in determining appropriate measures / interventions thereby reducing risks to people and properties.

DRA 4-Step process:

1. Hazard Characterization Assessment of past disaster events and current observations affecting the planning area to determine the pattern of occurrence over time.
STEPS: A. Prepare an inventory of hazards affecting the city/ municipality.
1. Collect geohazard maps, climate related maps from OCD and CSCAND agencies (e.g. READY maps)

2. 3.

Prepare a hazard map for the city/municipality (preferably in GIS format) by overlaying the obtained hazard maps to the base map. Identify and describe all natural hazards that the LGU is prone to such as: Hydro Meteorological hazards Flood Landslide Soil Erosion Climate related hazards Floods Rain-induced landslide Storm surge Geologic related hazards Earthquakes and natural hazards (ground shaking, tsunami, liquefaction, earthquake-induced landslides Volcanic Eruption - Prepare a checklist of hazards affecting the LGU in tabular form:

Table 1: Checklist of Hazards per Barangay

Example of Municipal Hazard Map

Sample GIS map showing the overlay of different hazards in the municipality.

3.

Identify and describe past or historical occurrences of hazards/disasters in your area. Present also in tabular form as follows: Table 2 Historical Data

B. Obtain climate projection data from PAG-ASA. This climate data can be linked to the hazards occurring or will occur in the locality.
Example of ten year climate projection:

C. Discuss the impacts of climate change projection/ scenario to the localitys existing hazard situation / disaster risk areas.
An impact chain analysis determines the connection between a climate stimuli to the different hazards and to the affected sectors.

Refer to the following example of an Impact Chain Analysis flow diagram:

Increased Temperature Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Landslide Damaged Trees Buried lowland /settlements Buried production area Flooded Facilities
Cut off services Damaged Facilities

Drought

Sea Level Rise Flood

Water Loss

Flooded Production area Loss of food supply

Increased morbidity/ mortality

Increased Poverty

Loss of income

C. Study and discuss the likelihood of a hazard to occur over time using the likelihood matrix below:
LIKELIHOOD SCORE TABLE Measure of Likelihood Frequent or Very likely Moderate or Likely Occasional, Light chance Unlikely, improbable 6 5 4 3 Score Return Period in Years Every 1 3 years Every 3 10 years Every 10 30 years Every 30 100 years

Highly unlikely, Rare event

Very rare event

2
1

Every 100 200 years

Every 200 300 years

2. Consequence Analysis The second step determines WHO and WHAT can be affected by a hazard event. An inventory of the elements at risk such as people, property, and environment, is an essential part of assessing vulnerability to loss and damage due to hazards. Severity of Consequence is a measure of the degree of impact of a hazard event , such as injury, death, damage, and interruption brought to the sector of concern.

Consequence Severity Table

Severity of Consequence score 1 Severity Score meaning Very low

Low

High

Very High

Specific Criteria of Consequences

Consequences Specific Criteria

Human consequences

Injury, death (ex. at work place or at home)

damage to buildings, equipment, and other facilities in an affected site damage to infrastructures (ex. roads & bridges) damage to critical facilities (ex. fire stations, police stations, hospitals) damage to properties ( ex. houses, land areas) damage to environment & natural assets (ex. forest areas, agriculture) Interruption of lifelines (ex. water, communication Interruption of the economy and societal functions

Property consequences

Operational consequences

Barangay 1 Risk score Human is 15; Property is 15; Operational is 15 Barangay 2 Risk score Human is 15; Property is 10; Operational is 10

3. Risk Estimation
This step determines HOW the planning units properties or assets are affected by a hazard event and HOW many lives will be lost in such event. At this stage, the risk to fatality (in terms of lives lost) and risk to property damage (in terms of replacement value) for individual hazards and hazard events are computed and summed up. For lack of historical record and other factors for fatality and damage, the risk estimation process may be simplified as per the expression given below:
Risk = Likelihood of Hazard X Severity of Consequence

What does this mean? Explanation:

The red color with the corresponding score suggests the most severe impact and should be addressed immediately.
Purple color suggests moderate consequences but are severe but unlikely or rare to happen Yellow color considered as low risk. However, may need emergency management, special land use management options and improving hazards information and communication

 Prepare hazard and vulnerability maps for decision making.

Overlay the existing land use map and hazard map over the corresponding settlement areas or residential areas to determine their extent of exposure.

Fault Zone

Flooding Zone

 The sample map is an overlay of the flooding areas and fault zone over the urban areas. This illustrates that during severe flooding, residential areas as well as commercial areas adjacent to the river are exposed to two types of hazards. A more detailed analysis can be made if data of each household and house structure data in the exposed areas can be gathered to determine the cost of damages showing greatest potential loss in the event of a disaster. ( Perhaps the CBMS data if available can be employed for this activity.) Although this is a time consuming activity for the LGU requiring manpower and budget requirements, a good database is very important for disaster risk reduction and management.

4. Risk Evaluation
Guided by the results of the risk analysis, decision makers will now have to evaluate the level of acceptability of risks. Risk issues are short listed according to urgency or priority for action. Consequently, the applicable risk reduction /adaptation measures for the hazard of concern are determined. Risk assessment and evaluation shall be applied to all of the different sectors to provide a picture of how the land use components will be affected and how best to arrange them to support other risk reduction strategies and ensure sustainable development. The discussions should express disaster risk management as a development concern.

 Risk evaluation will show: Association of sector goals with risk reduction goals Selection of actions compatible to development thrusts identified by the LGU Clustering of compatible actions to develop alternative strategies towards risk reduction Strategies as components of land use management approaches which may be location based (ex.

Sectoral Issues and Needs Matrix

SALAMAT PO!