Turban, Aronson, and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Seventh Edition

Chapter 11 Knowledge Acquisition, Representation, and Reasoning

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Learning Objectives
Understand the nature of knowledge. Learn the knowledge engineering processes. Evaluate different approaches for knowledge acquisition. Examine the pros and cons of different approaches. Illustrate methods for knowledge verification and validation. Examine inference strategies. Understand certainty and uncertainty processing.

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Development of a Real-Time Knowledge-Based System at Eli Lilly Vignette

Problems with fermentation process
Quality parameters difficult to control Many different employees doing same task High turnover

Expert system used to capture knowledge

Expertise available 24 hours a day

Knowledge engineers developed system by:

Knowledge elicitation
Interviewing experts and creating knowledge bases

Knowledge fusion
Fusing individual knowledge bases

Coding knowledge base Testing and evaluation of system

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-3

Knowledge Engineering
Process of acquiring knowledge from experts and building knowledge base
Narrow perspective
Knowledge acquisition, representation, validation, inference, maintenance

Broad perspective
Process of developing and maintaining intelligent system

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Knowledge Engineering Process

Acquisition of knowledge
General knowledge or metaknowledge From experts, books, documents, sensors, files

Knowledge representation
Organized knowledge

Knowledge validation and verification Inferences

Software designed to pass statistical sample data to generalizations

Explanation and justification capabilities

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Knowledge
Sources
Documented
Written, viewed, sensory, behavior

Undocumented
Memory

Acquired from
Human senses Machines

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Knowledge
Levels
Shallow
Surface level Input-output

Deep
Problem solving Difficult to collect, validate Interactions betwixt system components

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Knowledge
Categories
Declarative
Descriptive representation

Procedural
How things work under different circumstances How to use declarative knowledge
Problem solving

Metaknowledge
Knowledge about knowledge
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-9

Knowledge Engineers
Professionals who elicit knowledge from experts
Empathetic, patient Broad range of understanding, capabilities

Integrate knowledge from various sources

Creates and edits code Operates tools

Build knowledge base

Validates information Trains users
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Elicitation Methods
Manual
Based on interview Track reasoning process Observation

Semiautomatic
Build base with minimal help from knowledge engineer Allows execution of routine tasks with minimal expert input

Automatic
Minimal input from both expert and knowledge engineer
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-12

Manual Methods
Interviews
Structured
Goal-oriented Walk through

Unstructured
Complex domains Data unrelated and difficult to integrate

Semistructured

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Manual Methods
Process tracking
Track reasoning processes

Protocol analysis
Document experts decision-making Think aloud process

Observation
Motor movements Eye movements
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-14

Manual Methods
Case analysis Critical incident User discussions Expert commentary Graphs and conceptual models Brainstorming Prototyping Multidimensional scaling for distance matrix Clustering of elements Iterative performance review

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Semiautomatic Methods
Repertory grid analysis
Personal construct theory
Organized, perceptual model of experts knowledge Expert identifies domain objects and their attributes Expert determines characteristics and opposites for each attribute Expert distinguishes between objects, creating a grid

Expert transfer system

Computer program that elicits information from experts Rapid prototyping Used to determine sufficiency of available knowledge
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Semiautomatic Methods, continued Computer based tools features:

Ability to add knowledge to base Ability to assess, refine knowledge Visual modeling for construction of domain Creation of decision trees and rules Ability to analyze information flows Integration tools
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Automatic Methods
Data mining by computers Inductive learning from existing recognized cases Neural computing mimicking human brain Genetic algorithms using natural selection

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Multiple Experts
Scenarios
Experts contribute individually Primary experts information reviewed by secondary experts Small group decision Panels for verification and validation

Approaches
Consensus methods Analytic approaches Automation of process through software usage Decomposition
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2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

Automated Knowledge Acquisition Induction

Activities
Training set with known outcomes Creates rules for examples Assesses new cases

Advantages
Limited application Builder can be expert
Saves time, money

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Automated Knowledge Acquisition

Difficulties
Rules may be difficult to understand Experts needed to select attributes Algorithm-based search process produces fewer questions Rule-based classification problems Allows few attributes Many examples needed Examples must be cleansed Limited to certainties Examples may be insufficient
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-22

Automated Knowledge Acquisition

Interactive induction
Incrementally induced knowledge
General models
Object Network

Based on interaction with expert

interviews

Computer supported
Induction tables IF-THEN-ELSE rules
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-23

Evaluation, Validation, Verification

Dynamic activities
Evaluation
Assess systems overall value

Validation
Compares systems performance to experts Concordance and differences

Verification
Building and implementing system correctly Can be automated
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Production Rules
IF-THEN Independent part, combined with other pieces, to produce better result Model of human behavior Examples
IF condition, THEN conclusion Conclusion, IF condition If condition, THEN conclusion1 (OR) ELSE conclusion2
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-26

Artificial Intelligence Rules

Types
Knowledge rules
Declares facts and relationships Stored in knowledge base

Inference
Given facts, advises how to proceed Part of inference engines Metarules

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Artificial Intelligence Rules

Advantages
Easy to understand, modify, maintain Explanations are easy to get. Rules are independent. Modification and maintenance are relatively easy. Uncertainty is easily combined with rules.

Limitations
Huge numbers may be required Designers may force knowledge into rule-based entities Systems may have search limitations; difficulties in evaluation

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Semantic Networks
Graphical depictions Nodes and links Hierarchical relationships between concepts Reflects inheritance
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Frames
All knowledge about object Hierarchical structure allows for inheritance Allows for diagnosis of knowledge independence Object-oriented programming
Knowledge organized by characteristics and attributes
Slots Subslots/facets

Parents are general attributes Instantiated to children

Often combined with production rules

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-30

Knowledge Relationship Representations

Decision tables
Spreadsheet format All possible attributes compared to conclusions

Decision trees
Nodes and links Knowledge diagramming

Computational logic
Propositional
True/false statement

Predicate logic
Variable functions applied to components of statements
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Reasoning Programs
Inference Engine
Algorithms Directs search of knowledge base
Forward chaining
Data driven Start with information, draw conclusions

Backward chaining
Goal driven Start with expectations, seek supporting evidence

Inference/goal tree
Schematic view of inference process
AND/OR/NOT nodes Answers why and how

Rule interpreter
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-33

Explanation Facility
Justifier
Makes system more understandable Exposes shortcomings Explains situations that the user did not anticipate Satisfies users psychological and social needs Clarifies underlying assumptions Conducts sensitivity analysis

Types
Why How Journalism based
Who, what, where, when, why, how Why not
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-34

Generating Explanations
Static explanation
Preinsertion of text

Dynamic explanation
Reconstruction by rule evaluation

Tracing records or line of reasoning Justification based on empirical associations Strategic use of metaknowledge
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-35

Uncertainty
Widespread Important component Representation
Numeric scale
1 to 100

Graphical presentation
Bars, pie charts

Symbolic scales
Very likely to very unlikely
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-36

Uncertainty
Probability Ratio
Degree of confidence in conclusion Chance of occurrence of event

Bayes Theory
Subjective probability for propositions
Imprecise Combines values

Dempster-Shafer
Belief functions Creates boundaries for assignments of probabilities
Assumes statistical independence
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-37

Certainty
Certainty factors
Belief in event based on evidence Belief and disbelief independent and not combinable Certainty factors may be combined into one rule Rules may be combined

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Expert System Development

Phases
Project initialization Systems analysis and design Prototyping System development Implementation Postimplementation

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Project Initialization
Identify problems Determine functional requirements Evaluate solutions Verify and justify requirements Conduct feasibility study and cost-benefit analysis Determine management issues Select team Project approval
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-40

Systems Analysis and Design

Create conceptual system design Determine development strategy
In house, outsource, mixed

Determine knowledge sources Obtain cooperation of experts Select development environment

Expert system shells Programming languages Hybrids with tools
General or domain specific shells Domain specific tools
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-41

Prototyping
Rapid production Demonstration prototype
Small system or part of system Iterative Each iteration tested by users Additional rules applied to later iterations

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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System Development
Development strategies formalized Knowledge base developed Interfaces created System evaluated and improved

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Implementation Adoption strategies formulated System installed All parts of system must be fully documented and security mechanisms employed Field testing if it stands alone; otherwise, must be integrated User approval
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-44

Postimplementation
Operation of system Maintenance plans
Review, revision of rules Data integrity checks Linking to databases

Upgrading and expansion Periodic evaluation and testing

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 11-45

Internet
Facilitates knowledge acquisition and distribution Problems with use of informal knowledge Open knowledge source

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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