Criminal Profiling

What is Criminal Profiling?

- A technique for predicting the personality, behavioural, and demographic characteristics of an individual based upon an analysis of the crimes he or she has committed.

- Typically used in low volume serious crimes such as serial murder, serial rape, serial arson

 Video

FBI Profilers

Case Example
North London: Kilburn Area 3 Murders and 26 Rapes 1982 and 1986 Women, Early 20s Strangers Attacked During Night On or Near Railway Used Mask & Conversation Violent Rapes Used a Knife Talked to victim after rape Questioned victims about where

they Restrained victims by fastening

lived Varied Description of Rapist by victims Greeted victims as he passed and then attacked from behind

hands behind their backs Gave victims instructions on how to get home

Case Example
Home Location Marital Status Friendships
Lived

in middle of crimes no kids, later separated

Married, Only

two male friends

Extracurricular activities
Previous Actions Toward Women Pornography Interest? Occupation Age

Martial Arts
Violence Collector Carpenter 28

towards wife of hard-core porn with British Rail

when arrested (Started age 24)

History of Criminal Profiling

Late 1800s Jack the Ripper investigation 1950s New York Mad Bomber investigation 1970s Criminal Profiling program developed at the FBI Today - Similar programs developed internationally (e.g., RCMPs Behavioural Science Section)

The Purposes of Profiling

Suspect prioritization New lines of enquiry Interview strategies Predict dangerousness

Flush out offender

Types of Profiling
Inductive Profiling Profiling an offender from what is known about other offenders Deductive profiling Profiling an offender from evidence relating to the crime of that offender

Inductive Profiling
80% of serial killers who attack people in parking lots are white males

Our offender has attacked three people in parking lots, therefore it is likely that our offender is a white male

Inductive Profiling

Clinical Experience & Intuition Statistical Base Rates & Multivariate Analysis

Deductive Profiling
Body of a female victim is found in a locked warehouse in busy waterfront section

Offender can easily access warehouse and feels comfortable in the area

Profile Construction

What + Why = Who Organized Disorganized Model

Organized
Planned Offence Used Vehicle High intelligence Sexually Adequate

Disorganized
Spontaneous Offence No Vehicle Low Intelligence Sexually Inadequate

How often is profiling used?

> 100 profilers FBI, 1000 profiles/year in USA 242 profiles 1981-1995 UK

Consumer Satisfaction

Evaluation studies (e.g., Copson, 1995 N = 182) 83% operationally useful 69% definitely use profiling again

But 2.7% profiling helped identify offender 14% helped solve case 16% open new lines of inquiry

What do profiles contain?

Data: 21 offender profiles Used in major inquiries 5 US, 13 UK, 3 other Procedure: Coding dictionary

Content Categories

Factual/Summary information case info Unsubstantiated opinion (e.g., no backing) Unverifiable (e.g., emotions) Ambiguous (e.g., vague poor skills) Opposing alternatives multiple outs

Results of Content Analysis

3090 statements (Mean =147/profile)

Only 25% statements were predictions about offender (780)
82% unsubstantiated 55% unverifiable 24% ambiguous 6% opposing alternatives 1% fully justified (most from 1 profile)

Profiling Assumptions

Nomothetic: Similar processes affect all individuals same way Deterministic: Behaviour is affected in predictable ways Non-situational: Behaviour remains stable across situations

CONFIGURATION OF TRAIT INDICATORS punctual tidy polite

CONFIGURATION OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOURS verbal violence physical violence threats to victim

LATENT TRAIT conscientiousness

DISPOSITION
aggressiveness

BEHAVIOUR IN OTHER CONTEXTS organized responsible dependable

BEHAVIOUR IN EVERYDAY LIFE conviction for violent crimes domestic disputes violent pornography

Criminal Consistency

Little to no support for trait theory Situational factors impact criminal actions across crimes

Assumptions of profiling in doubt

Does Profiling Work?

Meta-analysis (5 studies) Statistically combine accuracy scores Profilers vs. Students, Psychologists, and Police officers
Used solved cases, administered questionnaire

Does Profiling Work?

Profilers barely outperformed other groups Low level of objective accuracy in Profilers predictions Profilers dont want to be tested!

Conclusions

Profiles offer comfort to officers but do not help solve crimes redundant
Profiles contain few predictions about offender and those are often ambiguous, unjustified, or unverifiable.

Profiling lacks theoretical support

Expert profilers can barely out-predict university students!

Why is Profiling Used?

Cover all bases

Victim, public, etc.

Feel their nothing to lose

Ignore potential for harm!

Actually believe profilers can help with uncertain investigation

Informational Mediators

Anecdotes

Exclusive Reporting of Hits

Repetition of Message Profiling Works! Bogus Experts

The Mind

Natural Human Reasoning Interpreting Ambiguous Predictions Mistaking fiction for Fact

Critique Video
Anecdotes
Exclusive Reporting of Hits

Repetition of Message Profiling Works!

Bogus Experts

Natural Human Reasoning

Interpreting Ambiguous Predictions

Mistaking Fiction for Fact

Geographic Profiling

Geographic profiling analyzes crime scene locations to determine the most probable area of offender residence

Racial Profiling

Racial profiling refers to any police initiated action that uses race to make decisions regarding an individual