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Probability Simulation

Chapter 6 Section 1

3 methods to answer questions of probability


1. Try to estimate the likelihood of a result of interest by actually observing the random phenomenon many times and calculating the relative frequency of the results (EmpiricalDo IT!) 2. Develop a mathematical probability model and use it to calculate a probability (TheoreticalThink about IT!) 3. Start with a model, in some fashion, that reflects the truth about the random phenomenon and develop a plan for imitating a number of repetitions of the procedure (SimulationFake IT!)

Simulations BIG & small!


BIG!
Example 6.1
Virtual-Reality applications for training military Using simulators to train pilots & drivers

small
Example 6.2
Using the flip of a coin to simulate boys/girls born in a family

NOTE: The AP Exam gives full credit for problems solved by simulation even if the problem doesnt call for it!

Simulation Tools
Random Digits Table
Table Bvery back Each digit has an equal chance of appearing Each group of digits has an equal chance of appearing

Calculator-randInt command
math > prb > randInt > input (min, max, # of trials) You can store values in a List for use
STO > List name

Assigning Digits for Simulation


Choose a person at random from a group of which 70% are employed. Choose a person at random from a group of which 73% are employed. Choose one person at random from a group of which 50% are employed, 20% are unemployed, and 30% are not in the labor force.

Simulation Steps:
A couple plans to have children until they have a girl or until they have four children, whichever comes first. What is the probability that they have a girl?

1. State the problem or random phenomenon. 2. State the assumptions.


Probabilities/Relative Frequencies Independent/Dependent When do you stop?

3. Assign digits to represent outcomes. 4. Simulate many repetitions 5. State your conclusions.
What did you find?

Pg. 397 Pg. 402

6.1-6.5 odd 6.8, 6.12

Homework Assignment

Simulation Steps:
Orders of frozen yogurt flavors (based on sales) have the following relative frequencies: 38% chocolate, 42% vanilla, and 20% strawberry. We want to simulate 10 customers entering the store and ordering yogurt.

1. State the problem or random phenomenon. 2. State the assumptions.


Probabilities/Relative Frequencies Independent/Dependent When do you stop?

3. Assign digits to represent outcomes. 4. Simulate many repetitions 5. State your conclusions.
What did you find?

LETS PLAY PLINKO!


Probability Simulation

Think this through!


What position(s), one through nine, do you believe would be the worst to start your chip in?
Why?

What position(s), one through nine, do you believe would be the worst to start your chip in?
Why?

LETs SIMULATE!
What do we need to assume? Set-up the simulation!

Grade Distribution
1 A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

B C D F

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