1

Seminar-II on

Presented by Ghulam Honaryar I.D. No. PAK-8062

Major Advisor: Dr.G.S.Mahadevaiah 2

Introduction:
Agriculture is central to the Afghan economy. This sector contributes to 31 % of GDP (industry 26% , services 43 %) and provides employment for (80%) of the labour force ( 2008 est.) Main food crops growing in Afghanistan are wheat, rice, maize, and barley Wheat is the staple food for most Afghans, comprising more than 70 percent of their diet. Lowquality rice is a poor, but sometimes necessary, substitute.

Suffering for food!

Afghans bread (bakery)

Table 1: Land use for different purpose in Afghanistan during 1995-2008 (Area in 000 Ha)
Land Use 1: Permanent Pasture 2: All Other Land 3: Agricultural Area (a+b+c+d) a. Forests And Woodland 1995-96 30,000 25,770 9,453 1,700 1999-2000 30,000 25,770 9,453 1,700 2008-09 30,000 25,613 9,610 1,700 CGR (19952008) 0 0.08 0.22 0

b.
c. d.

Temporary land
Irrigated Crops area Cultivated Rain fed area

5,108
1,969 833 100 65,223

5,075
1,999 837 100 65,223

4,570
2,191 1,149 116 65,223

2.21
1.35 9.51 3.61 0

Permanent Crops Total Land area (1+2+3)

Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

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Figure 1: Land use in Afghanistan (%), 2008-09

Irrigated Crops area(c) 3% Cultivated Rain fed area( d) 2% Forests And Woodland(a) 2% Temporary land(b) 6% Permanent Crops 0%

3: Agricultural Area (a+b+c+d) 13%

1: Permanent Pasture 40%

2: All Other Land 34%

Table 2: Cultivated land area for different food crops during 1995-2008 (Area 000 Ha)
Year Wheat Rice, Paddy Barley Maize Millet Pulses Cereals Total 1995-96 2000 170 225 320 27 37 2779 2008-9 2139 190 236 137 12 294 3008 CGR(1995-2008) 2.08 1.83 4.43 1.61 9.08 26.36 2.76

Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

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Table 3: Production of different food crops during 1995-96 to 2008-09 (Prodn. In MT)

Year Wheat

1995-96 2000

2002-03 2686

2008-09 2623

CGR(1995-2008) 7.90

Rice, Paddy
Barley Maize Millet Pulses Cereals Total

390
200 530 22 50 3192

388
345 298 20 50 3787

410
333 280 n/a n/a 3646

1.89
4.68 1.12 -5.19 -1.01 5.61

Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

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Table 4: Yield of different food crops during 1995-96 to 2008-09

(Tonnes/Ha)
Year Wheat Rice, Paddy Barley Maize Millet Pulses Cereals Total 1995-96 1.03 1.79 1.07 1.60 0.86 1.07 1.15 2002-03 0.72 1.49 3.37 0.52 0.81 1.35 1.66 2005-06 1.82 2.03 1.40 1.21 0.81 1.30 1.73 2006 -07 1.38 2.26 1.54 2.62 1.00 n/a 1.49 2008-09 1.23 2.16 1.41 2.04 n/a n/a 1.21 CGR 2.27 0.66 0.32 0.48 4.20 0.79 3.06

Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

Table 5: Area and Production of different Cereals in 2009

Crop Irrigated wheat (Winter & Spring) Rainfed wheat (Winter & Spring) All wheat Area (000 ha) 1134 Yield Production Per cent (tonnes/ (000 Per cent ha) tonnes) (36%) 3.03 3433 (54 %)

1426
2560 190 140 270 3160

(45 %)
(81 %) (6%) (4%) (9%) (100%)

1.18
2 3.39 2.14 1.8

1682
5115 432 300 486 6333

(27 %)
(81 %) (7%) (5%) (8 %) (100%)

Milled rice (paddy yield) Maize Barley

Overall

Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009
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Table 6: Changes in the 2009 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2008 (Area1000 Ha, Yield T/Ha, Prodn. 1000 Tonnes)

2008 Crop

2009

% change in

Area
Irrigated wheat Rainfed wheat 990

Yield
2.43

Prod
2,406

Area
1,134

Yield
3.03

Prod

Area

Yield Prod

3,433 12.70 19.80 29.92

1,149

0.19 1.23

217 2,623

1,426 2,560

1.18 2

1,682 19.42 83.90 87.10 5,115 16.45 38.50 48.72

All wheat 2,139

Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

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Table 7: The 2009 Cereal Balance Sheet (000 tonnes)

Requirements

Crop Food Irrigated

wheat Rainfed wheat All wheat Milled rice 4,175 444

Domestic

Seed
199 118 317 20

Feed
-----

Loss
515 253 768 30

Total

production 3,433 1,682

Deficit

5,260 494

5,115 432

-145 -62

Maize
Barley Total

52
26 4,697

8
30 375

195
357 552

45
73 916

300
486 6,540

300
486 6,333

---207

Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009
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Table 8: Agricultural commodity retail market prices in April 2009 (Afs/Kg.), (1 Afs = 0.95 Rs)
Last year Commodity Region Same month (Apr 08) Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Agri. Labor Urea DAP North North-East West West-Central Central South East South-West Overall Overall Overall Overall 30.8 30.5 28.7 23.5 29.7 30.5 32.0 29.4 29.8 191.8 (m.d) 15.1 38.0 Previous month (Mar 09) 20.6 21.0 19.0 28.0 22.5 21.5 22.5 25.0 22.4 190.8 18.9 37.7 Reporting month (Apr 09) 18.0 17.5 17.7 26.5 18.7 20.0 19.5 22.7 19.8 196.8 18.5 37.0 Previous month -12.6 -16.7 -7.0 -5.4 -17.0 -7.0 -13.3 -9.3 -11.7 3.1 -2.3 -1.7 % change on Previous year same month -41.6 -42.6 -38.4 12.8 -37.1 -34.4 -39.1 -22.9 -33.7 2.6 22.1 -2.5
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Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

Table 9 :Rice paddy Barley and Maize Area, Yield, and Production Zones-vise (2008-09)
Barley Zones NORTH NORTH-EAST WESTCENTRAL SOUTH EAST SOUTH-WEST Total Area (000 He) Yield (T/He) Prod (000 Mt) Area (000 He) Rice Paddy Yield (T/He) Maize Area Prod (000 Prod (000 Yield Mt) (000 Mt) He) T/He)

83.5 40.2 9.0

1.64 1.47 1.22

137.0 58.9 11.0

12.0 110.0 0.9

2.15 2.01 5.50

25.8 221.4 5.0

28.21 2.04 4.80 2.06 0.65 2.00

57.64 9.90 1.30

33.7 1.4
38.1 236.0

1.36 1.74
0.97 1.41

45.9 2.5
37.1 333.0

7.5 35.0
2.5 190.0

2.65 2.27
2.22 2.16

19.9 79.3
5.6 410.0

29.00 2.04 23.70 2.04

28.60 2.04 137 2.04

59.30 48.39
58.40 280

Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

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Table 10: Area and Production of Wheat in 2009 by province (mid-May 2009)

Rainfed Wheat Total Wheat Yield Yield REGION Area Yield Production Area Area Production Production ('000 ha) ('000 tons) ('000 tons) (t/ha ('000 (t/ha) (t/ha) ('000 ha) ('000 ha) ) tons) NORTH 226 2.62 591 705 1.15 812 931 1.51 1,403 NORTH-EAST 224 3.04 682 370 1.18 435 594 1.88 1,117 WEST 152 3.34 508 240 1.25 300 392 2.06 808 WEST-CENTRAL 40 3.03 121 54 1.46 79 94 2.13 200 CENTRAL 122 2.96 361 19 1.21 23 141 2.72 384 SOUTH 109 3.26 355 12 0.92 11 121 3.02 366 EAST 87 3.06 266 11 0.73 8 98 2.80 274 SOUTH-WEST 174 3.16 549 15 0.93 14 189 2.98 563 TOTAL 1,134 3.03 3,433 1,426 1.18 1,682 2,560 2.00 5,115
Source Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009
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Irrigated Wheat

Table 11: Wheat Balance in 2009 Zones-wise

Requirement Irrigated Rainfed Settled Surplus or Production wheat wheat population Human Post harvest Deficit 2009 area forecast area forecast Seed in 2009 2010 harvest 2010 harvest ('000) Losses ('000 tons) consumption ('000) tons) ('000 no.) tons) ('000 ha.) ('000 ha.) ('000 tons) ('000 tons) 3,410.1 3,465.6 2,583.3 1,029.9 5,602.1 2,524.5 2,303.8 3,074.2 23,993.5 1,700.0 400.0 26,093.5 226 224 152 40 122 109 87 174 1134 0 0 1134 705 370 240 54 19 12 11 15 1,426 0 0 1,426.0 1,403 1,117 808 200 384 366 274 563 5115 0 0 5,115.0 545.6 554.4 413.4 164.8 896.4 403.9 368.6 491.9 3,839.0 272.0 64.0 4,175.0 98.0 69.9 46.5 11.5 22.9 20.0 16.1 31.7 316.6 --316.6 210.6 167.7 121.3 30.0 57.7 55.0 41.2 84.6 768.1 --768.1 548.8 325.0 226.8 -6.3 -593.0 -112.9 -151.9 -45.2 191.3 -272.0 -64.0 -144.7

REGION

NORTH NORTH-EAST WEST WESTCENTRAL CENTRAL SOUTH EAST SOUTH-WEST Total for settled Nomads Returnees Overall consumers

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

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Figure2: Wheat Balance in 2009 province-wise

surplus=>50000 surplus=50000 Deficit Up to 25000 Deficit from 25 to 50000 Deficit=>50000 (tonnes)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

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Cereal self-sufficiency in Afghanistan farms

A study was conducted by Hector Maletta in April 2006.
The main data source is the Winter Survey carried out at the beginning of 2003 by the Ministry of Agriculture of Afghanistan supported by FAO (the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) and WFP (the UN World Food Programme). The Winter Survey interviewed a sample of 4761 farmers in 514 rural communities across the country, covering all agro-ecological zones and watersheds, and 31 of a total of 32 provinces.

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Table 12: Households, population and reported cereal output by level of self-sufficiency, 2002

Particular
BELOW SELF SUFFICIENCY No cereal output 1 - 24 kg/capita 25-49 kg/capita 50-99 kg/capita 100-149 kg/capita NEAR SELF-SUFFICIENCY 150-199 kg/capita 200-250 kg/capita ABOVE SELF-SUFFICIENCY

% households
57.7% 12.2% 5.6% 10.6% 16.6% 12.7% 14.4% 8.1% 6.3% 27.9%

% population
60.2% 12.3% 6.4% 11.6% 17.3% 12.7% 13.9% 7.8% 6.1% 25.9%

% cereal output
15.1% 0.0 .4% 1.9% 5.7% 7.1% 12.1% 6.% 6.1% 72.8%

Cum. % houseCum. % holds population

Cum. % cereal output

12.2% 17.8% 28.4% 45.% 57.7% 65.8% 72.1%

12.30% 18.70% 30.20% 47.50% 60.20% 68.00% 74.10%

0.00% 0.40% 2.40% 8.00% 15.10% 21.10% 27.20%

250-499 kg/capita
500-999 kg/capita 1000+ kg/capita TOTAL

16.1%
8.5% 3.3% 100.%

15.%
7.7% 3.3% 100.%

23.4%
23.4% 26.% 100.%

88.2%
96.7% 100.%

89.10%
96.70% 100.00%

50.60%
74.00% 100.00%

Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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Table1 3: Wheat purchases and food aid (% farms) Since last harvest have you: Received food Purchased wheat? aid? Agro-ecological zone Badakhshan mountains 39.4% 21.2% Central mountains 66.8% 14.0% Eastern mountains 89.6% 2.7% Southern mountains 80.4% 0.3% Northern mountains 56.1% 18.3% Turkistan plains 52.7% 21.7% Herat-Farah lowlands 77.1% 28.4% Helmand River valley 74.6% 0.4% TOTAL 69.10% 13.70%
Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)
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Table 14. Comparison of cereal balance status 2002 and 2003 Expected balance 2003 Reported balance 2002 Deficit households About self-sufficient Surplus households Total Total Deficit households 447,017 25,724 16,442 489,183 About self sufficient 79,562 60,077 20,800 160,439 Surplus households 86,010 66,840 260,104 412,954

612,589 152,641 297,346 1,062,576

Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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Table 15: Months of wheat self-sufficiency of farm households, after the reported 2002 harvest Percent of households within each zone or region Average Months of wheat self-sufficiency for farmers months Total None 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12 Agro-ecological zone Badakhshan mountains Central mountains Eastern mountains Southern mountains Northern mountains Turkistan plains Herat-Farah lowlands Helmand River valley TOTAL 100.00% 2.10% 11.40% 20.90% 40.50% 29.80% 14.60% 18.20% 31.50% 26.40% 24.60% 10.90% 20.90% 20.10% 24.90% 14.20% 15.30% 18.10% 20.60% 18.10% 8.80% 12.60% 7.70% 11.10% 11.40% 11.30% 10.30% 10.30% 10.60% 66.80% 27.30% 10.70% 11.30% 46.40% 49.20% 22.30% 31.70% 31.00% 9.4 5.6 3.6 4 7.4 7.9 5 6.1 5.9 100.00% 18.40% 100.00% 21.00% 100.00% 22.80% 100.00% 13.30% 100.00% 6.00% 100.00% 17.80% 100.00% 11.00% 100.00% 15.60%

Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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Table 16: Percent geographical distribution of farm households with various degrees of wheat self-sufficiency after the reported 2002 harvest Percent distribution across zones or regions Total Months of wheat self-sufficiency for farmers households None 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12 Agro-ecological zone Badakhshan 3.30% 0.40% 1.50% 2.00% 2.80% 7.20% mountains Central mountains 15.70% 18.50% 13.30% 18.00% 18.60% 13.80% Eastern mountains 16.60% 22.40% 27.30% 18.40% 12.10% 5.70% Southern mountains 7.50% 10.90% 9.00% 10.20% 7.80% 2.70% Northern mountains 26.40% 22.50% 15.60% 20.70% 28.50% 39.60% Turkistan plains 7.00% 2.70% 5.20% 5.90% 7.50% 11.10% Herat-Farah lowlands
Helmand River valley TOTAL

13.80%

15.70%

17.60%

13.70%

13.40%

9.90%

9.70% 6.80% 10.40% 11.00% 9.40% 9.90% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
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Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

Analysis of Impact of Wheat Prices on Food Accessibility: The figure shows the increase in the price of wheat flour in main Afghan centres during the past year. The greatest change occurred in Faizabad, with a 76% increase, while the smallest was recorded in Jalalabad and Hirat, with a 50% increase

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Figure3: compare of wheat flour price 06 v s 07

Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin (March 2009)

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The main reasons for the increases appear to be:

The nearly doubling of international wheat prices over the past year, largely driven by unprecedented growth in demand in some Asian countries, notably China and India; increasing use of cereals for bio-fuels; and a poor wheat harvest in Australia;

Manipulation of wheat availability and prices by Pakistani traders;

less wheat flour imports from Pakistan owing to restrictions on exports imposed by Pakistan authorities;

Higher transportation costs globally due to the considerable increase in fuel prices;

Higher transport and distribution costs in Afghanistan caused by growing insecurity and the resulting threat to commercial vehicles
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Terms of Trade for Afghan Wage Earners

Figure 4: casual labour/wheat Dec 2006 v s Dec 2007

Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin (March 2009)

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[Household

Food Expenditure:

Based on the share of income spent on food, the NRVA ( National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment), 2005 indicated that 36 percent of Afghan households have poor food access, 26 percent have average access and 38 percent have good access

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Table 17: Household Food Expenditure province-wise in 2005

Province

% of Household Expenditure on food 62 57 68 61 54 57 53 50 59 58 44 58 62 64 51 49 43

Province

% of Household expenditure on food

BADAKHSHAN BADGHIS BAGHLAN BALKH BAMYAN DAIKUNDI FARAH FARYAB GHAZNI GHOR HILMAND HIRAT JAWZJAN KABUL KANDAHAR KAPISA KHOST

KUNAR KUNDUZ LAGHMAN LOGAR NANGAHAR NIMROZ NURISTAN PAKTIKA PAKTYA PANJSHIR PARWAN SAMANGAN SAR-I-PUL TAKHAR URUZGAN WARDAK ZABUL Average

42 50 58 47 51 58 37 57 53 75 65 54 57 58 40 44 61 56

Source: WFP, WHO and UNICEF Report, 2008

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Food Consumption Classification

Based on 2005 NRVA data, which took into consideration daily kilocalorie consumption and dietary diversity, Afghan households were classified into the following three categories: Very poor food consumption: 24% of the households are characterized by very poor food consumption, meaning households consume only cereals and oil on a daily basis; Borderline food consumption: 37% are characterized by borderline food consumption, meaning households mainly consume just two other food groups in addition to cereals and oil; and Better food consumption: 39 % have better food consumption
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Figure5: food security profile in Afghanistan by 2005

Percentage of Group Household Food Security Level households in each group Poor Food Consumption & Poor Food Food Insecure Access Poor Food Consumption & Borderline Food Access Border line Borderline Food Consumption & Borderline Food Access Borderline Food Consumption & Better Food Secure Food Access Better Food Consumption & Better Food Access 19

33

24

14
30

Source: WFP, WHO and UNICEF Report, 2008

To identify the additional food insecure population the following four indicators were used: Food consumption Food Expenditure Source of food Change in market price over the past 12 months. Based on the above indicators all Afghan districts were classified as following: Very high risk Districts with more than 50% of the population classified as having low dietary diversity/very poor food consumption Districts where households spend more than 60% of their income on food Districts where more than 60% of household food is purchased in markets Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of more than 50%. High risk Districts with 25-50% of the population classified as having low dietary diversity/very poor food consumption Districts where households spend 50-60% of their income on food Districts where 50-60% of household food is purchased in markets Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of 2550%. 31

Medium risk Districts with 10-25% of the population classified as having low dietary diversity/very poor food consumption Districts where households spend 40-50% of their income on food Districts where 30-50% of household food is purchased in markets Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of 10-25%. Low risk Districts with less than 10% of the population classified as having low dietary diversity/very poor food consumption Districts where households spend less than 40% of their income on food Districts where the source of food is mainly from own production (ie less than 10% of food consumed is purchased in markets) Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of less than 10%.

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Table 18: Food security classification by province

Province
BADAKHSHAN BADGHIS BAGHLAN BALKH BAMYAN DAIKUNDI FARAH FARYAB GHAZNI GHOR HILMAND HIRAT JAWZJAN KABUL KANDAHAR KAPISA KHOST KUNARHA KUNDUZ LAGHMAN LOGAR NANGARHAR NIMROZ NURISTAN PAKTIKA PAKTYA PANJSHIR PARWAN SAMANGAN SAR-I-PUL TAKHAR URUZGAN WARDAK ZABUL % of Poor Food Consumption & Poor Food Access 28.9 14.6 22.9 23.5 14.7 16.2 13.8 16.4 30.1 31.1 12.9 17.7 17.7 28.2 18.8 4.6 8.3 7 8.6 26.4 12.1 14.5 28 14.2 26.7 19.6 16.3 6.6 9.6 22.2 24.3 14.2 12.3 26.1 % of Poor Food Consumption & Borderline Food Access 12.8 20.4 10.9 7.4 25.4 39.6 5.2 2.4 16.1 23.3 6.1 8.5 8.7 8 8.4 1.7 1.1 0.9 2.6 16.7 1.3 2.9 19.9 4.8 5.5 4.1 14.9 4.8 8.4 4.4 9.5 13.1 4.2 26.3 % of Borderline Food Consumption & Borderline Food Access 31.8 22.6 37.7 34.3 42.8 38.6 30.3 28.2 28.1 31.7 32.2 41 29.7 34.2 31.4 24.5 23 19.1 31.7 31.6 28.2 34 30.5 47.6 36.9 38 51.8 52.1 32.6 29.6 29.3 34.5 30.6 22.3 % of Borderline Food Consumption & Better Food Access 18.9 26.3 15.7 22.6 14 3.9 26.4 35.3 19.2 11.4 28.1 22 26.8 21.1 28.3 36.5 24.7 29.6 28.9 20.2 33.5 28.5 18.7 31.8 21.6 31.4 11 18.1 19.3 25.8 23.3 27.8 36.4 24.2 % of Better Food Consumption & Better Food Access 7.6 16.1 12.7 12.2 3.1 1.7 24.4 17.7 6.6 2.5 20.7 10.7 17.1 8.5 13.1 32.7 42.9 43.4 28.1 5.1 24.9 20 3 1.5 9.4 6.8 5.9 18.4 30.1 18 13.6 10.4 16.4 1.1

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Current food security conditions:

In terms of food availability and access, the 2009/2010 hunger season looks optimistic in compared to the past nine years. Food availability is comparatively higher in 2009/2010 due to last years historically large harvest and generous food aid distribution. In addition, wheat prices continue to decrease against the fiveyear average and 2008s abnormally high wheat prices. Despite last years favorable conditions, the 2010 food security outlook does not look as optimistic because of poor climatic seasonal progress The prevalence of high temperatures in lowlands and low accumulation of snow during December and January raises concerns for the upcoming agricultural season.

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Figure 6: Food security condition by province, 2010

BADAKHSHAN

BADGHIS

FARAH

Source :AFGHANISTAN Food Security Update , USAID, 2010

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Markets and trade of wheat and flour

In comparison to this time last year, the January 2010 wheat market prices are lower by an average of 42 percent in all seven reference markets. In comparison to the fiveyear average, the January 2010 wheat market prices are lower by an average of 15 percent in all reference market

The unseasonal reduction in January wheat prices likely reflects good market accessibility this year because of low snowpack.
Typically this time of year, market access diminishes because of heavy snowfall and poor infrastructure. Other reasons such as adequate food supply in the market might also contribute to the lower prices.

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Figure 7: Flour and Wheat Supplies in Afghanistan, Estimated Yearly Volumes, (in MT), 2004

sours: Rubera Justin and others Market Sector Assessments SME Development, Altai consulting , 2005

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Figure 8 : wheat nominal retail prices in Kabul

Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin (March 2009)

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Figure 9: wheat nominal retail in Mazar province

Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin (March 2009)

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Conclusions and policy implication:

Food crops are an import crops specially wheat, rice, and barley so there is a need to improve the production and productivity to meet the domestic requirements

However, Afghanistan is not self-sufficient in wheat and it imports a significant quantity of flour and wheat-based products.
To become self sufficient in food production, cereal production must improve, especially for wheat, which requires high-cost irrigation systems and technological support. Wheat is the most important crop, followed by barley, corn, and rice. Cotton is another important and widely cultivated crop. In comparison to hunger seasons for the past nine years, the 2009/2010 hunger season looks optimistic in terms of food availability and food access.

Food availability is comparatively higher in 2009/2010 due to the 2009 historical large harvest and generous food aid distribution over the course of 2009.
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