Risk Management

Prepared by Stephen Penn October 6, 2012 Information derived or quoted from Rita Mulcahy

5 Overall Project Management Processes with Risk Management

ID & Managed Plan RM ID Risk Qualitative Quantitative Plan Risk Responses

Monitor & Control Risks

Risk Management Process

Opportunities

Threats

Concepts and Terms

Uncertainty Risk Factors Risk Averse
Risk Tolerance Risk Thresholds

Lack of knowledge
1. 2. 3. 4. How likely a risk event will occur Impact or amount at stake When it will occur How often it will occur

Some one that does not want to take on risk Degree of risk acceptable Point at which risk becomes unacceptable
Project Constraints (scope, time, cost, etc)

Risk areas

Plan Risk Management

How much time should we spend? Who will be involved? How should we perform risk management?

What will I have when Im done with ?

Risk Management Plan
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Methodology Roles & Responsibilities Budgeting Timing Risk Categories Definitions of probability & Impact Stakeholder tolerances Reporting & Tracking

Identify Risk (tools & techniques)

Documentation Reviews Documents can help identify risk Brainstorming One idea generates another

Delphi Technique
Interviewing Root Cause Analysis

Experts participate anonymously

Interview participants, stakeholders, experts Reorganized by root causes to find more risk

Identify Risk
SWOT Analysis Identifies strengths and weaknesses and thus risk Checklist of risk categories to identify risk Validate assumptions which may lead to risk

Checklist Analysis Assumptions Analysis

Diagramming Techniques

Cause and effect diagrams and flowcharts

Outputs to Identify Risk

Risk Register Example

Qualitative Risk Analysis

Perform Qualitative (Subjective) Risk Analysis (Probability and Impact Matrix)

Watchlist Risk Grouped by category Risk Register Updates

Numerically analyzing the probability and impact of risks how risk could affect the objectives of the project
1. Determine risk that warrant a response 2. Determine overall project risk 3. Determine quantified probability to meet project objectives (e.g. 75% chance) 4. Determine cost and schedule reserves 5. Identify risks requiring more attention 6. Create realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

1. 2. 3. 4.

Investigate highest risks on the project Determine type of probability distribution Which risks have the most impact Determine quantified risk through EMV or Monte Carlo

 Interviewing Cost & Time Estimating Delphi Technique Use of historical records

Determine Quantitative Probability Impact

Expert Judgment EMV Monte Carlo Decision Trees

Decision Tree choose between many alternatives

(Impact)

Quantitative

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Prioritized list of quantified risk Amount of contingency time and cost reserves needed Realistic and achievable completion dates and project costs The qualified probability of meeting objectives Trends in quantitative risk analysis

What are we going to do now about each top risk?

1. 2. 3. 4.
1. 2.

Eliminate the threats before they happen Make sure opportunities happen Decrease the probability and/or impact of threats Increase the probability and/or impact of opportunities For Residual Threats
Contingency Plans Fallback Plans

Monitor and Control Risk

Workarounds Risk Reassessments Unplanned responses to deal with problems Review risk plan, risk register and update documentation
Prepared by PM. Prove you have identified risk, have plans for major risk, risk response owners are prepared.

Risk Audits Reserve Analysis Status Meetings Closing of Risks

How much reserve remains and how much is needed (checkbook)

Team meetings where risked is discussed Close finished risk to focus on remaining risk

Outputs of Monitor & Control Risk

1. Risk Register Updates 2. Change Requests
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Outcomes of risk assessment and risk audits Updates to risk management and ID of new risk Closing of risk Details of what happened Lessons learned

3. PM Plan Updates

Monitor & Control process will uncover changes Updates to schedule, cost, quality, hr, etc
Roles & Responsibilities, stakeholder management, quality metrics Risk templates like risk register, checklists, and other data which becomes historical records

4. Project Doc Updates

5. Organization Process Assets Updates

Practice Exam

Practice Exam

Practice Exam

Answers

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Answers