Global warming and

CO2 capture and storage

Leo Meyer
Head IPCC WGIII TSU
Seminar on CO2 sequestration

DEFRA-DTI
London, October 13th, 2003

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 CONTENT
1. General introduction to global warming

3. Mitigation challenge and the possible role of

Carbon Dioxide capture and storage

5. About IPCC, and the IPCC Special Report on

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

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 CO2 last 420,000 years
Cape Grim and South Pole
400
Law Dome ice cores
Taylor Dome ice core 350
Vostok ice core

300

CO 2 ppm
250

200

150
1000000 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1
years before 2000 AD

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GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR 6 SRES SCENARIO
GROUPS
(a) A1 (b) A2
40 40

30 A1F1 30
A2

20 20
A1B
10 10
A1T
0 0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

(c) B1 (d) B2
40 40

30 30

20 20

B2
10 10
B1
0 0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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 REASONS FOR CONCERN
• I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems
• II Risks from Extreme Climate Events
• III Distribution of Impacts
• IV Aggregate Impacts
• V Risks from Future Large-Scale
Discontinuities

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Global mean warming Comparing reasons for concern
o
C

I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems

Year II Risks from Extreme Climate Events
III Distribution of Impacts
IV Aggregate Impacts
V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities
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 Key Findings TAR (1)
• Global and regional changes have been
observed in the chemical composition of the
atmosphere, earth's surface temperature,
precipitation, extreme climatic events, sea
level
• These have caused changes in biological,
physical and socio-economic systems
• Most of the observed warming of the past 50
years is attributable to human activities

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 Key Findings TAR (2)
• Future changes in atmospheric composition
and climate are inevitable with increases in
temperature and some extreme events, and
regional increases and decreases in
precipitation, leading to an increased risks of
floods and droughts
• There are both beneficial and adverse effects
of climate change, but the larger the changes
and rate of change in climate, the more the
adverse effects predominate with developing
countries being the most vulnerable
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 Key Findings TAR (3)
• Adaptation has the potential to reduce
adverse effects of climate change, but will
not prevent all damages
• Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the
interacting climate, ecological and socio-
economic systems which means that the
impacts may not be observed for decades to
centuries and mal-adaptations may be
implemented

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 Key Findings TAR (4)
• Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st
century can set in motion large-scale, high-
impact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt
changes in physical and biological systems
over the coming decades to millennia
• Sustained warming of a few oC over
millennia is projected to lead to an increase
in sea level of several meters due to loss of
Greenland and Antarctic Ice

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 Key Findings TAR (5)
• Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2
will require global emissions to decline to only a small
fraction of current emissions -- even after stabilization
of CO2 concentrations, sea level will continue to rise
for millennia
• Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and
1000ppm would result in an equilibrium temperature
rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC above 1990
levels, respectively. Increases in non-CO2
concentrations would increase these estimates
• The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of
avoided damages
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 The mitigation challenge
• Current CO2 emissions (7 GtC/y) could
increase to 20-30 GtC by 2100
• In order to achieve CO2 stabilisation at 450-
550 ppm, reductions of 50 – 80 %
compared to actual emissions will be
needed by 2100 (Kyoto = 0.3 GtC/y)
• 300 – 1500 GtC cumulative C emissions
might need to be avoided this century
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 Main mitigation options
• Energy efficiency improvement
• Fuel switch
• Carbon Dioxide capture and storage
• Biological Sinks
• Solar, wind, nuclear, biofuels
• Non-CO2 options

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 Views on mitigation: technologies
550 ppmv 650 ppmv
60 60
Emissions (Gt CO2 )

Baseline Baseline
50 50
Sinks
40 40 CarbonCapture
Fuelswitch
30 30 Solar,wind,nuclear
Mitigation
scenario Biofuels
20 20 Efficiencyimprovement
Mitigation
10 scenario 10

0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Source: IMAGE model, RIVM-MNP, 2003

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Carbon dioxide storage capacities
Reservoir type Global capacity (GtC)
Disused oil fields 100
Disused gas fields 400
Deep saline > 1000 Emissions to be
reservoirs avoided: 300-1500
GtC up to 2100
Unminable coal 40
measures
Deep ocean > 1000
Total > 2500
Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001

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Source: MOREL, French Institute of Petroleum , World Gas Conference 2000

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 About IPCC
Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:
• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
information on climate change, impacts and
options for adaptation and mitigation
• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations;
policy relevant but not policy prescriptive
• Publication of reports
• Extensive review processes of its reports
• Support to UNFCCC
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 About IPCC: organisation
W M O /U N E P

IP C C
I P C C C h a ir

IP C C B u re a u

W o r k in g g r o u p I W o r k in g G r o u p I I W o r k in g G r o u p I I I T a s k F o rc e o n
S c ie n c e I m p a c t a n d A d a p t a t io n M it ig a t io n N a t io n a l G H G in v e n t o r ie s
T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it
U K U S A N e t h e r la n d s Japan

Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade

Davidson (Sierra Leone) &
Co-ordination SR(Netherlands)
Bert Metz on
CO2 capture and storage

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 Special Report on CO2 capture and
storage - Why now?
• Only 3 pages in Third Assessment Report
• Relatively new and unknown GHG mitigation option
• Lots of new information available
• CO2 capture and storage is or will soon be
implemented in many countries, e.g. to meet Kyoto
obligations
• Inclusion in the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) is
too late and too little room for extensive assessment

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Contents of IPCC Special Report

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 Conclusions
• Human induced climate change is real
• Risks are serious
• Mitigation effort would need strong acceleration
in order substantially reduce the risks
• CO2 capture and storage could possibly contribute
to a large part of the solution
• An IPCC Special Report with a full assessment of
CO2 capture and storage will be availabe in the
second half of 2005

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 Contact
On the Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
of IPCC:
Heleen de Coninck
TSU IPCC WG III
E-mail: deconinck@ecn.nl
Phone: +31-224-564316
On IPCC Working Group III :
Leo Meyer
Head TSU WG III
E-mail: leo.meyer@rivm.nl
Phone: +31-30-2744090

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