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Background
and Current Issues Terminal Value Estimators of Terminal Value Forecast Horizon Quantitative Analysis Recommendations
Arcadian:
Opportunity:
$40M
Value
of the Investment:
It
is the lump sum of cash flows at the end of a stream of cash flows, which represent:
The proceeds from exiting an investment; The present value of all cash flows beyond the
forecast horizon
Terminal
asset They measure the continuing value derived from the going concern of the business.
Terminal Value
Liquidation Assumption
Liquidation value
Market Multiples
Constant growth
Advantages Simple
Disadvantages Ignores some assets and liabilities Historical cost: backward looking Subject to accounting manipulation Subjective estimates Value may be difficult to come by
When to use approach Appropriate when the minimum value of a company needs to be determined. Appropriate when a company is deciding whether to buy another company or build a new one from scratch. Appropriate when assets are marketable The approach is used as a business valuation benchmark
Replacement Value
Current
Conservative
Ignores going concern value Uncertainty about value of assets in the market Earnings subject to accounting manipulation Snapshot estimate: may ignore cyclical, secular changes Provides relative value, not absolute value
Errors in growth rate and/or discount rate can provide improper value Easy to abuse or misuse Requires estimate on when firm will grow at stable rate
Forecast Horizon
Importance: All future cash flows, not only the ones that you can forecast, determine value
KEY: When Stable Growth Begins Set the forecast horizon Stop Forecasting Cash Flows Estimate a Terminal Value
$Millions
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Year
Stable growth of 2% begins in year 12: -Plant reaches capacity -Estimate TV at yr 12
200
Growth Rate
400
Growth Rate
300
150
Cash Flows ($M USD)
100
200
50
100
0 1 -100 Year 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-50
-100
Limitations:
Forecasts for 10 and 11 years, but neither attains stable growth Ideally, we should continue forecasting until stable growth begins
Difficult due to the company being in its early stages
It is reasonable to assume that growth will fall to 5% by 2016 given the pattern of decline since 2013
Use the End of the Forecasting Period to Estimate TV
Best Options: 1. Price/Earnings Ratio 2. Price/Book Value Ratio 3. Constant Growth Rate
Assumptions: 1. WACC 20% 2. At end of forecast horizon Arcadian is a
mature company
Arcadian P/E 2014 Net Income Terminal Value PV Terminal Value PV 05-14 CF PV 60% Ownership $ $ $ $ $ $ 15 203 3,045 492 (151) 341 204 20 $ 203 $ 4,060 $ 656 $ (151) $ 505 $ 303
Sierra P/E 2015 Net Income Terminal Value PV Terminal Value PV 05-15 CF PV 60% Ownership $ $ $ $ $ $ 15 162 2,430 327 (118) 209 125 $ $ $ $ $ $ 20 162 3,240 436 (118) 318 191
20 130%
PE Sierra
15 157%
20 137%
Arcadian Price to Book Ratio BV of Equity Terminal Value PV Terminal Value PV 05-14 CF PV 60% Ownership
Sierra Price to Book Ratio BV of Equity Terminal Value PV Terminal Value PV 05-15 CF PV 60% Ownership
Sierra
208%
Options:
1. Real growth rate in the economy = 3% 2. Real growth rate in the Pharmaceutical Industry = 5% 3. USA Population growth = 1%
FisherEquation
g No ( 1 g ) x ( 1 g min al Re al Inflation ) 1
Inflation=2%
Nominal Rates
1. Nominal growth rate in the economy ~ 5% 2. Nominal growth rate in the Pharmaceutical Industry ~ 7% 3. USA Population growth = 1%
Arcadian's View Annual growth rate to infinity Weighted average cost of capital Adjusted free cash flow 2015 Terminal value 2014 PV of terminal value 2014 PV free cash flows 2005-2014 Total Present Value 60% Ownership Terminal Value Explanation Sierra Capital's View Annual growth rate to infinity Weighted average cost of capital Adjusted free cash flow 2016 Terminal value 2015 PV of terminal value 2015 PV free cash flows 2005-2015 Total Present Value 60% Ownership Terminal Value Explanation
3% 4% 20% 20% 194 185 1,173 1,200 189 194 ($151) ($151) $38 $43 $23 Range $26 High 495% 455%
3% 4% 20% 20% 177 168 1,073 1,093 144 147 ($118) ($118) $26 $29 Low $16 Range $17 555% 513%
Difference
Applicable
204 303
125 191
79 112
No No
Price/Book Ratio
462
66
396
No
21
10
Yes
Arcadian
Sierra
Difference
122
92
30
IPO/Early Exit
Distribute shares to clients tax-free Compare with
Affymetrix (P/E 50.09, P/B 8.56,P/FCF 97.5, P/SALES 7.49) Illumina (PB 8.46, P/SALES 8.82)
Counteroffer: $21M Abandonment Point: $31M Management Bonus If management hits forecast in years 20132014, 5% incentive $2M present value
Arcadian's Forecast Sierra'sForecast Difference 5% PV 2013 $134 $28 $106 $5 $2 2014 $231 $98 $132 $7