Chapter 15

Association Between Variables Measured at the Interval-Ratio Level

Chapter Outline

Interpreting the Correlation Coe icient! r " #he Correlation Matri$ #esting %earson&s r or 'igni icance Interpreting 'tatistics! #he Correlates o Cri(e

'cattergra(s

'cattergra(s have two di(ensions!

#he ) *independent+ variable is arra,ed along the hori-ontal a$is. #he / *dependent+ variable is arra,ed along the vertical a$is.

'cattergra(s

0ach dot on a scattergra( is a case. #he dot is placed at the intersection o the case&s scores on ) and /.

'cattergra (s

'hows the relationship between 1 College 0ducated *)+ and Voter #urnout */+ on election da, or the 52 states.
Turnout By % College
73 68

63

58

53

48

43

15

17

19

21

23

25 % College

27

29

31

33

35

'cattergra(s

3ori-ontal ) a$is - 1 o population o a state with a college education. 'cores range ro( 15.41 to 45.61 and increase ro( le t to right.
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

'cattergra(s

Vertical */+ a$is is voter turnout. 'cores range ro( 55.11 to 72.51 and increase ro( botto( to top
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

'cattergra(s! Regression Line

A single straight line that co(es as close as possible to all data points. Indicates strength and direction o the relationship.
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

'cattergra(s! 'trength o Regression Line

#he greater the e$tent to which dots are clustered around the regression line8 the stronger the relationship. #his relationship is wea9 to (oderate in strength.
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

'cattergra(s! :irection o Regression Line

%ositive! regression line rises le t to right. ;egative! regression line alls le t to right. #his a positive relationship! As 1 college educated increases8 turnout increases.
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

'cattergra(s

Inspection o the scattergra( should alwa,s be the irst step in assessing the correlation between two I-R variables
Turnout By % College
73 68 63 58 53 48 43 15 17 19 21 23 25 % College 27 29 31 33 35

#he Regression Line! <or(ula

#his or(ula de ines the regression line!

Y = a + bX =here! / > score on the dependent variable a > the / intercept or the point where the regression line crosses the / a$is. b > the slope o the regression line or the a(ount o change produced in / b, a unit change in ) ) > score on the independent variable

Regression Anal,sis

Be ore using the or(ula or the regression line8 a and b (ust be calculated. Co(pute b irst8 using <or(ula 15.4 *we won&t do an, calculation or this chapter+

Regression Anal,sis

#he / intercept *a+ is co(puted ro( <or(ula 15.5!

Regression Anal,sis

<or the relationship between 1 college educated and turnout!

Regression or(ula! / > 52.24 ? .5" ) A slope o .5" (eans that turnout increases b, .5" *less than hal a percent+ or ever, unit increase o 1 in 1 college educated. #he / intercept (eans that the regression line crosses the / a$is at / > 52.24.

b *slope+ > .5" a */ intercept+> 52.24

%redicting /

=hat turnout would be e$pected in a state where onl, 121 o the population was college educated@ =hat turnout would be e$pected in a state where 721 o the population was college educated@ #his is a positive relationship so the value or / increases as ) increases!

<or ) >128 / > 52.4 ?.5"*12+ > 55.5 <or ) >728 / > 52.4 ? .5"*72+ > 7A.7

%earson correlation coe icient

But o course8 this is Bust an esti(ate o turnout based on 1 college educated8 and (an, other actors also a ect voter turnout. 3ow (uch o the variation in voter turnout depends on 1 college educated@ #he relevant statististic is the coe icient o deter(ination *r sCuared+8 but irst we need to learn about %earson&s correlation coe icient *r+.

%earson&s r

%earson&s r is a (easure o association or I-R variables. It varies ro( -1.2 to ?1.2 Relationship (a, be positive *as ) increases8 / increases+ or negative *as ) increases8 / decreases+ <or the relationship between 1 college educated and turnout8 r >.4". #he relationship is positive! as level o education increases8 turnout increases. 3ow strong is the relationship@ <or that we use R sCuared8 but irst8 let&s loo9 at the calculation process

0$a(ple o Co(putation

#he co(putation and interpretation o a8 b8 and %earson&s r will be illustrated using %roble( 15.1. #he variables are!

Voter turnout */+ Average ,ears o school *)+ #his is onl, to si(pli , co(putations8 5 is (uch too s(all a sa(ple or serious research.

#he sa(ple is 5 cities.

0$a(ple o Co(putation
Cit, A B C : 0 ) 11.A 1".1 1".7 1".D 14.2 / 55 62 65 6D 72

#he scores on each variable are displa,ed in table or(at!

/ > #urnout ) > /ears o 0ducation

0$a(ple o Co(putation
) 11.A 1".1 1".7 1".D 14.2 62.5 / 55 62 65 6D 72 318 )
"

/" 42"5 4622 5""5 56"5 5A22 20374

)/ 655.5 7"6 D"5.5 D72.5 A12 3986.4

151.61 156.51 161."A 164.D5 16A 782.15

Sums are needed to co(pute b8 a8 and %earson&s r.

Interpreting %earson&s r

An r o 2.AD indicates an e$tre(el, strong relationship between average ,ears o education and voter turnout or these ive cities. #he coe icient o deter(ination is r" > .A6. Enowing education level i(proves our prediction o voter turnout b, A61. #his is a %R0 (easure *li9e la(bda and ga((a+ =e could also sa, that education e$plains A61 o the variation in voter turnout.

Interpreting %earson&s r

Our irst e$a(ple provides a (ore realistic value or r.

#he r between turnout and 1 college educated or the 52 states was!

r > .4" #his is a wea9 to (oderate8 positive relationship.

#he value o r" is .12. %ercent college educated e$plains 121 o the variation in turnout.