Path Analysis

Path Diagram



Single headed arrow runs from cause to effect
Double headed bent arrow: correlation

The model above assumes that all 5 variables are turned into z-scores (standardized)
It can be represented by a set of standardized STRUCTURAL (regression) equations:
Occ=.281*1stOc+.394*Ed+.115*FaOc+e
1
1stOc=.440*Ed+.224*FaOc+e
2
Ed=.279*FaOc+.310*FaEd+e
3
a. Exogeneous vs. Endogeneous Variables
Exogenous variables are never dependent variables: FaOcc, FaEd
Endogenous variables are dependent variables at least once: Occ, 1stOc, Ed
b. Dependent vs, Independent Variables
While the exogenous vs. endogenous distinction is with respect to the model as a whole, D vs. I variables are defined
with respect to individual equations
c. Recursive vs. Non-Recursive Models
A recursive model is one where the flow of causation is one-way: you start from any variable and if you follow the one
headed arrows, you cannot encounter the same variable twice
Structural Equations







EQ1:
PREMARSX=a+b1*RELITEN+b2*EDUC+e
EQ2:
ABSINGLE=a+b1*RELITEN+b2EDUC+b3*PREMARSX+e

Standardized Structural Equations
EQ1:
Z
premarsx
=p
pr
*Z
reliten
+p
pe
*Z
educ
+e
1

EQ2:
Z
absingle
=p
ar
*Z
reliten
+p
ae
*Z
educ
+p
ap
*Z
premarsx
+e
1
p
yx
= the path (standardized regression) coefficient of X in a regression where X is one independent and Y is the dependent variable
reliten
Educ
Premarsx absingle
error2
error1
1
1
Observed Variables
Unobserved
Variables
Normal Equations
for each equation the number of normal equations is K where K= number of independent variables
r
variable1, variable2
= r
variable2,variable1
bivariate Pearsons correlation coefficient measuring the linear relationship between x and y
EQ1:
1)
r
reliten,premarsx
=p
pr
*r
reliten,reliten
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
+ r
reliten,e1
as r
reliten,reliten
=1 and r
reliten,e1
=0
r
reliten,premarsx
=p
pr
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ


2)
r
educ,premarsx
=p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+p
pe


EQ2:
3)
r
reliten,absingle
=p
ar
+p
ae
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ap
*r
reliten,premarsx,


4)
r
educ,absingle
=p
ar
* r
educ, reliten
+p
ae
+ p
ap
*r
educ, premarsx


5)
r
premarsx,absingle
=p
ar
* r
premarsx,reliten
+p
ae
*r
premarsx,educ
+ p
ap

5 normal equations, 5 path coefficients: 5 equations, 5 unknowns: JUST-IDENTIFIED model

Effects of Religion (RELITEN) on Support
for Abortion for Single Women (ABSINGLE)
Take the normal equation which has the correlation of RELITEN and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side (Normal
Equation #1) for EQ2).

r
reliten,absingle
=p
ar
+p
ae
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ap
*r
reliten,premarsx,


Notice that
r
reliten,premarsx
=p
pr
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
(Normal Equation #1 for EQ1).

So
r
reliten,absingle
=p
ar
+ p
ae
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ap
*( p
pr
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
)=
r
reliten,absingle
=p
ar
+ p
ae
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ap
* p
pr
+ p
ap
*p
pe
*r
reliten,educ


Total direct unanalyzed indirect unanalyzed
association= effect + effect through +effect through + effect through
education premarital sex education AND
premarital sex
Decomposing the relationship between intensity of religious
beliefs and support for abortion for single women





Direct effect = -.074
Indirect effect through Premarsx = -.291*.335= -.097485
Unanalyzed effect due to Educ = -.019*.230= -.00437
Unanalyzed effect due to Educ and Premarsx= -.019*.171*.335= -.001088415
Total association = -.074 + -.097485 + -.00437 + -.001088415 = -.176943415
Compare to rAbsingle,Reliten = -.177

Reliten
Educ
Premarsx Absingle
e1
e2
-.074
-.291
.335
.230
-.019
.171
Effects of Education (EDUC) on Support for
Abortion for Single Women (ABSINGLE)
Take the normal equation which has the correlation of RELITEN and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side (Normal
Equation #2) for EQ2).

r
educ,absingle
=p
ar
* r
educ, reliten
+p
ae
+ p
ap
*r
educ, premarsx


Notice that
r
educ,premarsx
=p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+p
pe
(Normal Equation #2 for EQ1)

So
r
educ,absingle
=p
ar
* r
educ, reliten
+p
ae
+ p
ap
* (p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+p
pe
)=
r
educ,absingle
=p
ar
* r
educ, reliten
+p
ae
+ p
ap
* p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ap
* p
pe


Total unanalyzed direct unanalyzed indirect
association= effect through + effect + effect through + effect through
religion religion and premarital sex
premarital sex

Decomposing the relationship between education
and support for abortion for single women





Direct effect = .230
Indirect effect through Premarsx = .171*.335= .057285
Unanalyzed effect due to Reliten = -.019*-.074 = .001406
Unanalyzed effect due to Reliten and Premarsx= -.019*-.291*.335=.001852215
Total association = .230+ .057285 + .001406 +.001852215= 0.290543215
Compare to rAbsingle,Educ= .291
Reliten
Educ
Premarsx Absingle
e1
e2
-.074
-.291
.335
.230
-.019
.171
Effects of support for pre-marital sex on Support for
Abortion for Single Women
Take the normal equation which has the correlation of PREMARSX and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side
(Normal Equation #3 for EQ2).

r
premarsx,absingle
=p
ar
* r
premarsx,reliten
+p
ae
*r
premarsx,educ
+ p
ap


Notice that
r
reliten,premarsx
=p
pr
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
(Normal Equation #1) for EQ1).
(keep in mind that r
reliten,premarsx
=r
premarsx, reliten
)
and
r
educ,premarsx
=p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+p
pe
(Normal Equation #2) for EQ1)

So
r
premarsx,absingle
=p
ar
*( p
pr
+p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
)+p
ae
*( p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+p
pe
)+ p
ap
=
r
premarsx,absingle
=p
ar
* p
pr
+ p
ar
* p
pe
*r
reliten,educ
+p
ae
* p
pr
*r
reliten,educ
+ p
ae
*p
pe
+ p
ap


Total association unanalyzed unanalyzed association direct
association= due to + effect through + effect through + due to + effect
common cause education and religion and common cause
religion religion education education


Decomposing the relationship between attitude
towards pre-marital sex and support for abortion
for single women





Direct effect = .335
Spurious effect due to common cause Reliten = .-.291*-.074= .021534
Spurious effect due to common cause Educ = .171*.230= .03933.
Unanalyzed effect due to correlation of common cause Reliten with Educ= -.291* -.019*.230=
.00127167
Unanalyzed effect due to correlation of common cause Educ with Reliten= .171*-.019*-.074=
.00074727
Total association = .335 + .021534 + .03933 + .00127167+ .00074727 =.039788294
Compare to rAbsingle,Premarsx= .398
Reliten
Educ
Premarsx Absingle
e1
e2
-.074
-.291
.335
.230
-.019
.171
Rules of calculating the various effects of
(X) on (Y)
a. Direct effect
path coefficient
b. Indirect effects
Start from the variable (Y) later in the causal chain to your right. Trace
backwards (right to left) against arrows passing intervening variables until you
get to variable (X)
Each combination of intervening variables is a separate indirect effect.
c. Spurious effects (due to common causes)
Start from variable (Y). Trace backwards to a variable (Z) that has a direct or
indirect effect on both (X) and (Y). Move from (Z) to (X).
There are as many spurious effects of (X) on Y due to (Z) as many ways you can get
from Y to (X) through (Z) following the rule above.
d. Correlated (unanalyzed) effects
If (X) is one of several exogenous variables find (Z) that is both exogenous and
has a direct or indirect effect on Y. Start from variable (Y). Trace back to (Z).
Make the last step through the double headed arrow to (X)
If (X) is an endogenous variable, find an exogenous variable (Z) that has a direct
or indirect effect on (Y) and is correlated to another exogenous variable (W) that
has a direct or indirect effect on (X). Start from variable (Y). Trace back to (Z).
Travel through the double headed arrow to (W). Move from (W) to (X).
Comment: A Correlated (unanalyzed) effect is like an indirect effect or a spurious effect
due to common causes, except it includes one (and only one) double headed arrow.
Rules of calculating the total
association
1. Find all paths
Sewall Wright's rules
No loops
Within one path you cannot go through the same variable twice.
No going forward then backward
Only common causes matter, common consequences (effects)
don't.
Maximum of one curved arrow per path
2. Calculate compound paths (indirect, spurious,
correlated) by multiplying coefficients encountered
on the way
3. Add up all direct and compound effects
Identification of fully recursive models
Rules of thumb
(The actual rules of identification are bit more complicated but the following rules will work most of the time)
J ust-Identified Models
As many coefficients as normal equations (a necessary but not
sufficient condition)
With K variables this means k*(k-1)/2 single headed and double
headed arrows
J ust-identified models can be estimated in SPSS as separate
regression equations.
Underidentified Models
More coefficients than normal equations
Underindentified models cannot be estimated
A model can be locally underidentified even when you have the
same or more normal equations than coefficient to estimate.
Overidentified Models
Fewer coefficients than normal equations (a necessary but not sufficient
condition)
Degrees of freedom: = #normal equations-#coefficients