IKLIM SEBAGAI PEMICU BANJIR BANDANG

Halmar Halide
Jurusan Fisika FMIPA UNHAS
Presentasi pada kegiatan Workshop dan FGD UNHAS-BNPB Penanggulangan
Banjir Bandang, tgl 26 September 2013, Hotel Makassar Golden, Makassar
Parodi et al. Predictability and predictive ability
of severe rainfall processes http://www.cimafoundation.org
http://www.popsugar.com/Flash-Flood-Boulder-Colorado-2013-Pictures-31755647
1 inch = 2,54 cm
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/weather_flashflood.shtml
http://pix11.com/2013/09/02/flash-flood-warning-in-effect-for-much-of-nyc-
until-3-p-m/#axzz2fxDaGUar
Eastern Daylight Time
Summer time -4 jam UTC/GMT
1 inch = 2,54 cm
The tribals assess the probability of early warning of flood extent by observing color of
clouds, their location, intensity and frequency of rainfall. The unusual sounds and changes
in water flow, colour of water, direction of wind and the unusual behavior of wildlife like
ants, birds, rats and Snakes also helps in the assessment of climatic variations.
In the prediction that a particular year is likely to be a drought year, the nature of clouds is
described as follows: There would neither be prosperity nor rain in the land should the
clouds be rough and small, tossed about by the wind have the shape of camels, corms,
dead bodies, monkeys or other inauspicious creatures, and be silent
The tribals of Rajasthan also have faith in the sayings of elders about the prediction of
weather, for e.g Pawan baje Suryo,to hali halav kim puryo if winds flow in the North
west direction then farmer should not plough his field because it indicates heavy rains.
Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Changa, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Changa, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Changa, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

http://bpkp-sidrap.blogspot.com/2011/05/petunjuk-lontara-allaorumang-adat-bugis.html
DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5
o
C for the
Oceanic Nio Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Nio 3.4
region (5
o
N-5
o
S, 120
o
-170
o
W)], based oncentered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.
For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined
when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

2011
2011
2011
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
http://www.oso.noaa.gov/goes/
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/
MCC as the mean correlation coefficient
MCE is the mean coefficient of efficiency
MAE is the mean absolute error
MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error
RMSE is the root mean square error
El Nino
LaNina
Halide and Ridd, 2008
Bersama..Kita bisa!
dan tentu sajalebih cepat!