TRANSFORMING CAPABILITY SUPPORT MATERIALS

LEADING VISION CREATION

Scenario Planning
Introduction

Scenario Planning has its origins in the Shell organisation where it was used to develop long term views of
the oil and gas sector, especially after the oil price rise in 1974. Used as part of a vision creation process,
scenario planning can provide a view of how different forces can manipulate the future in a different
direction (Turner, 2002).

Scenario Planning is a strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term
plans, it is an attempt to build plausible views of a small number of different possible futures for an
organisation operating in conditions of high uncertainty. Scenario Planning is a method for learning about
the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces
affecting our future. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of
mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of your business. The goal is to craft
a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces
(http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/).
Example
The Scotland 2020 project (www.demos.co.uk/files/Scotland2020.pdf) launched with a scenario building
workshop which brought together people with a wide range of knowledge and experience to think
imaginatively about the future of Scotland and devise 3 possible scenarios. After exploring some key trends
in Scotland the participants were divided into three groups, each of which was asked to develop a scenario
for Scotland in 2020 according to certain criteria:
The ticking tartan time bomb - The 'hands off' scenarios considers what Scotland might look like in
2020 if the current trends continue without any intervention to change their course.
Scotland - A sustainable state? - The 'hands on' scenario explores what Scotland might look like
in 2020 if the nation renewed itself organically from within.
Divided Scotland elects a Nationalist Thatcher - The 'everything's up for grabs' scenario imagines
what Scotland might look like in 2020 in the event of a radical political transformation.
Once completed, they formed the basis for a second workshop session to create a 'preferred scenario'.

The time taken to undertake scenario analysis differs depending on the scope of the activity. When
developing a vision for an entire organisation the team should be cross functional, ideally including
external input.

Further information:

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning - Step by step guide to Scenario Planning


Turner, S., 2002, Tools for Success: A Manager Guide, McGraw Hill Professional, Berkshire, UK
TRANSFORMING CAPABILITY SUPPORT MATERIALS
LEADING VISION CREATION
Scenario Planning
Instructions

A detailed step-by step guide to using the Scenario Planning tool is available at:

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning

Included below is a summary of the key steps involved in Scenario Planning.

The templates below may be used to record the results of Steps 1-4 and Step 5 respectively.

1. Scoping
Identify the key focal issue or concern this can either be broad, e.g. what will the future be for
this industry? Or specific, e.g. how will competitor activity impact on growth opportunities?
Identify the time horizon for the scenarios (usually 5-10 years)

2. Trend Analysis
Identify the primary driving forces at work in the present concentrating on the external factors
over which the organisation has little control (usually based around political, economic, social
dynamics, technological, legal and environmental issues). (see PESTLE)
Identify which of the forces are critical to the focal issue identify the most uncertain and
important forces

3. Build Scenarios
Utilise these uncertain and important forces to develop a small number of diverging future
scenarios
Agree on the scenarios to be developed (between 2 and 4)

4. Generate Options
Develop the scenario detail, linking it to the current state of the industry
Brainstorm the options available for the business within each scenario innovation, new
opportunities etc.

5. Test Options
Identify and discuss potential implications & impacts of scenarios on each of the identified
options
Use the scenario grid provided to record whether the scenarios identified will result in positive or
negative consequences for each of the business options (use a 5 point scale: ++, +, 0, -, - - ).

6. Action Plan
Use the scenarios and options available within them to identify plans which make sense across
all divergent futures

TRANSFORMING CAPABILITY SUPPORT MATERIALS
LEADING VISION CREATION
Key Focal Issue
Time Horizon
Political Issues
Economic
Issues
Social
Dynamics
Technological
Issues
Legal Issues
Environmental
Issues
Scenarios to be
Developed
1
2
3
4
Business
Options /
Opportunities
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Scenario Planning
TRANSFORMING CAPABILITY SUPPORT MATERIALS
LEADING VISION CREATION
Scenario Planning
Scenario/ Option Grid

Record whether the scenarios identified will result in positive or negative consequences for each of the
business options (use a 5 point scale: ++, +, 0, -, - - ).
Business Options/
Opportunities
Scenarios
Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Scenario 4:
Option 1:
Option 2:
Option 3:
Option 4:
Option 5:
Option 6:
Option 7:
Option 8: