PRESENTORS SMRUTI MODAK (110) JAY PATIL (113) KOMAL SAWANT (119) KRISHNA TIWARI (121) INTRODUCTION DEFINITION STRUCTURE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT BALANCE OF TRADE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BALANCE OF PAYMENT & BALANCE OF TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENT ALWAYS BALANCES DISEQUILLIBRIUM IN THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT TYPES OF DISEQUILLIBRIUM CAUSES OF DISEQUILIBEIUM MEASURES TO CORRECT DISEQUILLIBRIUM CONCLUSION
Balance of Payment is an account of the international transactions of a country, and shows how the country is faring in trade, attracting capital from abroad, and the effect of that on its foreign exchange reserves. The Balance of Payment data is useful in policy formulation for the sector. To study the strength and weakness of a country in the field of international trade. Internal study helps in knowing the Balance of Payments position of the country. A record of all transactions made between one particular country and all other countries during a specified period of time. BOP compares the dollar difference of the amount of exports and imports, including all financial exports and imports. A negative balance of payments means that more money is flowing out of the country than coming in, and vice versa. Structure of Balance of Payment CURRENT ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCOUNT CHANGE IN FOREX RESERVES The current account is used to mark the inflow and outflow of goods and services into a country. Earnings on investments, both public and private, are also put into the current account. Within the current account are credits and debits on the trade of merchandise, which includes goods such as raw materials and manufactured goods that are bought, sold or given away India has always run a current account deficit which means that it has always imported more than it has exported. Capital account can be thought of as the investments part of the international transactions. Capital account is further broken out into equity and debt investment and the FII money and FDI money is part of the equity investments. While the external commercial borrowings, money deposited in banks by NRIs and trade credits are debt investments. Indias current account deficit was being financed by a capital account surplus, which meant that foreigners were buying more assets in India or lending more capital to India. The difference between the current account and the capital account is reflected in the change in the forex reserves. For example, in 2010-11, Indias current account deficit was $45.9 billion but the capital account surplus was $62.0 billion and this resulted in increase in foreign exchange reserves of $13.1 billion. Indias forex reserves had dwindled to lows of $5.1 billion in 1991 and as a result India had to borrow from the IMF by pledging its entire stock of gold. Of trade.. The difference between the value of goods and services exported out of a country and the value of goods and services imported into the country. The balance of trade is the official term for net exports that makes up the balance of payments. The balance of trade can be a "favorable" surplus (exports exceed imports) or an "unfavorable" deficit (imports exceed exports). If a country has a balance of trade deficit, it imports more than it exports, and if it has a balance of trade surplus, it exports more than it imports. Balance of payment Balance of trade BALANCE OF PAYMENT BALANCE OF TRADE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Balance of payment is flow of cash between domestic country and all other foreign countries. It includes import and export of goods and services and also financial capital transfer. BOP = Current Account + Capital Account + or - Balancing item ( Errors and omissions) Main factors which affect BOP: a) Conditions of foreign lenders. b) Economic policy of Govt. c) all the factors of BOT Balance of trade may be defined as difference between export and import of goods and services. BOT = Net Earning on Export - Net payment for imports. Main factors which affect BOT a) cost of production b) availability of raw materials c) Exchange rate d) Prices of goods manufactured at home INDIAN FOREIGN TRADE SUMMARY Year Exports Imports Trade Balance 2000-01 2,03,571 2,30,873 -27,302 2001-02 209018 245200 -36182 2002-03 255137 297206 -42069 2003-04 293367 359108 -65741 2004-05 375340 501065 -125725 2005-06 456418 660409 -203991 2006-07 571779 840506 -268737 2007-08 655864 1012312 -356448 2008-09 840755 1374436 -533680 2009-10 845534 1363763 -518202 2010-11 751633 1126513 -374880 BALANCE OF PAYMENT ALWAYS BALANCES In the accounting sense, the balance of payments of a country is always in equilibrium. The statement of balance of payments is prepared in terms of credits and debits based on the system of double-entry book-keeping. In the double-entry system, each transaction gives rise to two equal entries: a credit entry (i.e., a receipt) and a debit entry (i.e., payment). Thus the sum of all credits equals the sum of all debits. The sum of all international receipts (credit items) always equals the sum all international payments (debit items).
Disequilibrium in Balance of Payment DISEQUILIBRIUM IN BALANCE OF PAYMENT Disequilibrium refers to the imbalance in the balance of payment in the form of surplus or deficits. Most countries experience deficit in their trade accounts, this is corrected through a surplus in services. The current account is the most important part of the balance of payments. Very few countries enjoy a surplus on this account. The deficit on this account requires to be covered by a surplus on capital account.
TYPES OF DISEQUILIBRIUM LONG RUN SHORT RUN CYCLICAL STRUCTURAL LONG RUN DISEQUILIBRIUM Disequilibrium that prevails continuously for a long period of time is known as long-run disequilibrium. The IMF refers to it as fundamental disequilibrium. The following are the main causes for long-run disequilibrium. Excess imports for planned economic development. Excess of domestic investment over domestic savings Compulsion. Import of essential goods due to continuous increase in population Decline in demand for exports due to changes in tastes, habits, income, technology, etc. Increase in the price of imports. SHORT RUN DISEQUILIBRIUM Short-run Disequilibrium prevails for a year or for few years. These deficits occur due to sudden increase in demand for foreign goods and services An increase in imports or decline in exports may arise due to domestic problems like failure of monsoon, natural calamities or political disturbances. These disturbances cause disequilibrium that can be corrected through short-term borrowing or other adjustments in the capital account.
CYCLICAL DISEQUILIBRIUM All economic activities are subject to business cycles which have four phases: prosperity/boom, recession, depression and recovery. These cycles have their impact on all the nations of the world. During the prosperity period, imports increase. During recession or depression, exports may increase and imports are decreased. Thus, disequilibrium is the result of the effects of business cycles at home as well as other countries.
STRUCTURAL DISEQUILIBRIUM It arises due to structural changes in the economy affecting demand and supply relations in commodity and factor markets. Export may decline due to changes in taste, fashion, habits or income. Similarly, demand for a raw material may change due to technological changes. Factor markets may also undergo structural changes that affect the commodity prices which in turn affect the exports. All these changes may cause disequilibrium in balance of payments of various economics.
CAUSES OF DISEQUILIBRIUM Disequilibrium in the balance of payment occurs due to imbalance between receipts and payments for exports and imports. Deficit in balance of payment is the result of excess of imports over exports. Thus, the three main cause of disequilibrium (deficit) are: 1) Increase in imports. 2) Decline in exports. 3) Other causes.
Continued Reasons for increase in imports can be as follows: a) Import of essential goods and services. b) Population growth. c) Increase in development programs. d) Reduction in import duties. e) Increase in income levels. f) Inflation in domestic market.
The following are the reasons for decline in exports: a) Appreciation in domestic currency. b) Increase in population. c) Inflation in domestic market. d) Technological developments in importing countries. e) Perfect trade policy of importing country. f) Natural calamities. MEASURES TO CORRECT DISEQUILIBRIUM DEVALUATION DEPRECIATION DEFLATION EXCHANGE CONTROL DEVALUATION Devaluation refers to an official announcement of the monetary authority through which the exchange rate is changed. When an economy faces the problem of foreign exchange, the government tries to encourage exports and reduce imports. This can be done through devaluation of the domestic currency i.e. the government makes deliberate efforts to reduce the value of home currency vise versa foreign currency. This will make exports cheaper and import costlier. Deficit in balance of payments is expected to be corrected due to increased exports and reduced imports.
DEPRECIATION Deprecation means a fall in the rate of exchange of one currency (home currency) in terms of another (foreign currency). A currency will depreciate when its supply in the foreign exchange market is large in relation to its demand. In other words, a currency is said to depreciate if its value falls in terms of foreign currencies, i.e., if more domestic currency is required to buy a unit of foreign currency. Thus, depreciation helps a country to achieve a favorable balance of payments by checking imports and stimulating exports. EXCHANGE CONTROL Exchange control is the most widely used method for correcting disequilibrium in the balance of payments. Exchange control refers to the control over the use of foreign exchange by the central bank. Under this method, all the exporters are directed by the central bank to surrender their foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange is rationed among the licensed importers. Only essential imports are permitted. Exchange control is the most direct method of restricting a country's imports. DEFLATION Deflation is a deliberate attempt by the monetary authorities of the country to bring down the general price level. The general price level is brought down by reducing money supply with the help of both quantitative and qualitative measures of control credit. Lower prices would help increase the demand for exports and decrease the demand of imports. Deflation as a monetary measure to correct disequilibrium is not free from limitation. It will be successful only in the case of a regime of fixed exchange rates.