June 2014

El Nio has 70% chance of development

during June-July-August.

Season
MJJ 2014
JJA 2014
JAS 2014
ASO 2014
SON 2014
OND 2014
NDJ 2014
DJF 2014
JFM 2015

As of June, 2014

La Nia
~0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%

Neutral
39%
30%
26%
22%
19%
17%
17%
18%
22%

El Nio
61%
69%
73%
77%
80%
82%
82%
80%
76%

Recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea

Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) over Nino 3.4
Region
ACTUAL MONTHLY SST AND SST ANOMALY
2014
2014
2014

Month
March
April
May

SST(C)
26.99
28.01
28.30

AVERAGE Mar-April-May 0.2C SSTA

Weekly Anomaly:

SSTA (C)
-0.22
0.24
0.45

WHAT TO EXPECT: FORECAST RAINFALL

JULY 2014

July and August : Near to above

normal rainfall and portions with
below normal in some parts of
the country
AUGUST 2014

way below normal

below normal
near normal
above normal

September : near to above

normal rainfall in most parts of
Western Luzon including
Mindanao except Palawan;
below to way below normal in
eastern section of Luzon and
Visayas

October: below to way below

normal rainfall in most parts of
the country
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal

November and December:

- way below to below normal
rainfall in most parts of the
country

way below normal

below normal
near normal
above normal

TROPICAL CYCLONE

MONTH
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Average

FORECAST

FORECAST
2 or 3
3 or 4
3 or 4
2 or 3
2 or 3
2 or 3
1 or 2
15 to 18

FORECAST RAINFALL AT Monitored Dams in Luzon (June Dec. 2014)

mm and Percent Normal (%)
STATIONS
AMBUKLAODAM
ANGATDAM
APUNAN
BADAYAN
BINGADAM
BOBOK
BUNGA
BUYOC
DANTOR
DUMAYUP
HALONG
IPODAM
MAGATDAM
MAPUTI
MARIKIT
MATULID
NORZAGARAY
PADALIS
PANTABANGAN DAM
SANROQUEDAM
STODOMINGO
TALAGUIO

JUNE
MM
%NORMAL
463.0
128.1
280.0
119.7
454.5
130.3
492.4
146.9
465.9
129.6
452.1
128.8
342.4
126.7
376.2
139.1
386.0
153.6
318.2
121.2
421.7
151.8
279.7
116.7
296.4
147.7
258.2
118.3
262.0
107.5
259.0
114.1
285.3
120.2
287.4
110.6
316.9
132.4
456.0
131.7
349.7
122.0
267.4 120.5

JULY
MM
%NORMAL
635.9
89.6
569.8
142.2
605.6
88.8
629.0
96.0
651.5
92.5
614.2
87.7
484.1
103.2
408.1
88.9
413.0
97.3
365.0
85.1
483.9
93.9
628.0
151.7
272.9
94.6
487.5
137.7
410.3
115.5
485.8
129.5
657.6
159.7
433.6
110.4
455.4
117.4
676.6
112.3
438.3
80.8
540.8 146.6

way below normal

below normal
near normal
above normal

AUGUST
MM
%NORMAL
991.3
121.7
452.4
122.6
889.6
112.9
801.4
105.8
1042.5
130.5
963.1
120.3
619.7
119.6
621.1
117.9
595.7
122.4
563.4
117.6
674.1
112.4
423.1
110.3
440.8
135.8
418.0
135.9
355.7
109.7
712.3
215.9
390.5
102.2
451.6
113.9
433.7
110.5
920.5
131.2
695.4
115.2
453.1 137.2

SEPTEMBER
MM
%NORMAL
256.3 122.5
683.8 134.1
249.5 117.7
231.8 117.9
262.3 121.8
261.3 116.1
334.9
87.6
275.7
86.7
250.0
82.8
315.1
83.2
240.7
97.1
678.2 144.3
305.6
67.3
593.1 110.6
408.0
80.3
644.2 124.4
663.3 140.8
379.6
81.3
381.4
79.3
286.2 111.6
303.1
92.9
637.2 121.7

OCTOBER
MM
%NORMAL
113.8
31.1
84.1
28.0
110.3
32.9
104.0
37.2
113.3
29.1
112.7
31.2
155.3
49.3
111.2
35.6
106.6
35.8
127.7
41.2
104.3
33.6
88.1
31.8
123.7
45.3
459.0
139.1
299.5
96.0
217.1
65.7
95.2
35.0
229.8
82.5
230.3
86.5
112.2
31.6
127.0
37.7
282.1
89.7

NOVEMBER
MM
%NORMAL
94.0
17.0
64.9
11.8
107.1
19.4
106.9
19.4
90.5
16.4
105.4
19.1
134.8
24.4
166.6
30.2
162.7
29.5
185.7
33.7
140.6
25.5
77.2
14.0
210.2
38.1
97.4
17.7
178.4
32.3
70.7
12.8
82.4
14.9
164.0
29.7
138.5
25.1
82.1
14.9
157.4
28.5
81.9
14.8

DECEMBER
MM
%NORMAL
130.7
20.5
17.2
2.7
149.1
23.4
128.0
20.1
128.9
20.2
157.9
24.8
290.6
45.6
281.0
44.1
215.3
33.8
390.5
61.3
181.4
28.5
3.6
0.6
388.4
61.0
113.8
17.9
463.6
72.8
48.7
7.7
10.2
1.6
410.4
64.5
312.1
49.0
125.9
19.8
321.5
50.5
55.2
8.7

FORECAST RAINFALL AT MAJOR RIVER BASINS

(June Dec. 2014)
mm and Percent Normal (%)

CATCHMENT
Abra RB
Abulug RB
Agno RB
Agus RB
Agusan RB
Bicol RB
Buayan-Malungon
Bued RB
Cagayan de Oro
Cagayan RB
Cotabato RB
Davao RB
Laoag RB
Pampanga RB
Pasig-Laguna RB
Sinocalan RB
Tagoloan River
Tagum-Libuganon

JUNE
MM %NORMAL
420.3
151.8
205.3
96.3
476.6
143.5
300.5
131.7
263.7
132.6
228.8
119.5
129.9
77.6
488.4
136.1
325.4
138.2
275.2
134.7
220.6
96.9
245.6
114.1
260.7
100.7
347.5
139.0
209.0
82.5
494.4
143.6
353.0
156.2
235.2
112.4

JULY
MM %NORMAL
631.2
133.8
311.1
113.0
807.5
155.7
197.7
89.2
204.8
104.4
292.2
113.7
141.1
98.0
754.7
126.0
237.6
100.8
292.4
100.4
213.8
110.7
248.7
167.0
485.7
127.3
653.1
165.5
474.8
128.9
817.0
159.9
252.1
97.2
208.8
135.6

AUGUST
MM %NORMAL
661.3
129.7
410.2
120.4
787.9
133.9
460.7
250.9
152.0
88.0
262.2
126.7
115.7
88.9
874.3
128.1
406.6
209.4
436.1
141.5
568.0
362.9
277.6
194.6
602.3
127.6
454.5
118.2
588.6
175.6
720.0
126.9
190.0
83.3
179.4
120.0

SEPTEMBER
MM %NORMAL
216.6
113.5
262.6
102.0
288.6
121.5
331.7
120.1
373.2
126.5
220.4
114.5
300.5
93.9
173.7
83.9
101.3
73.7
298.4
72.0
318.6
130.5
309.9
136.8
274.5
98.0
317.1
101.1
447.1
106.8
516.0
124.0
383.3
128.4
273.3
129.0

OCTOBER
MM %NORMAL
123.2
51.7
105.7
42.2
118.3
48.8
139.6
72.2
198.6
89.9
127.9
41.0
142.9
97.5
120.4
39.6
206.2
99.8
184.6
59.4
213.0
113.8
281.6
156.0
126.6
69.2
207.9
81.3
242.5
77.1
124.3
53.4
248.6
96.6
165.1
82.9

NOVEMBER
MM %NORMAL
84.0
15.2
220.0
39.9
63.6
11.5
61.0
11.1
85.5
15.5
220.9
40.0
335.1
60.7
590.4
107.0
92.4
16.8
240.6
43.6
193.0
35.0
138.7
25.1
72.1
13.1
226.7
41.1
122.8
22.3
107.3
19.5
210.3
38.1
181.7
32.9

DECEMBER
MM %NORMAL
57.0
8.9
322.5
50.7
99.4
15.6
93.4
14.7
106.3
16.7
19.2
3.0
181.8
28.6
614.1
96.5
143.7
22.6
429.9
67.5
19.1
3.0
72.2
11.3
76.9
12.1
68.5
10.8
144.1
22.6
51.6
8.1
23.2
3.6
145.9
22.9